All Spotlights • John Carlson Player Page • SEA Projections • TE Projections • TE Rankings • SEA Team Report

Spotlight - TE John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks

Posted on 8/8, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

The good news is John Carlson is being counted on to contribute immediately. Not usually known for relying on rookies, HC Mike Holmgren recognizes the need for Carlson to play well right out of the gates. For years, the Seahawks have had to interchange their TE packages depending on the situation. There were tight ends for run blocking and tight ends for pass catching. This year, if Carlson continues to progress as he has to this point, the Seahawks have one tight end who can block AND catch.

A 2nd round pick out of Notre Dame, Carlson has a lot going for him that MIGHT help him outperform the typical fantasy rookie TE. At 6'4", 255 pounds, Carlson has prototypical size but is a better athlete than his frame suggests. Carlson was a talented basketball player and that's given him fluid hips and an understanding of how to use his frame to gain position. He's also extremely intelligent. His former college coach, Charlie Weis, called Carlson "one of the smartest people in the draft" this year and that's essential to grasping the complex West Coast offense.

There are other factors clearly working in Carlson's favor:

1. Matt Hasselbeck is an excellent QB -- Hasselbeck is in complete command of the Seahawks offense and has reached perennial Pro Bowl status
2. The offensive line is studly -- Carlson is a good and willing blocker but nothing hurts a tight end's fantasy value more than having to block a majority of the time. The good news is the Seahawks offensive line is good enough to allow the TEs out in pass progressions with regularity
3. The WR corps is in flux -- For a team that loves to pass, there are questions at the WR position. Deion Branch is going to miss at least the first half of the season, Bobby Engram is 35 years young, and neither Ben Obomanu and Courtney Taylor are proven. That means Carlson should see his share of targets, particularly in the red zone

While there is plenty of good news to talk about, let's recognize the difficult odds Carlson has against being a valuable fantasy commodity as a rookie.

The TE position is the deepest it's ever been, fantasy-wise. Whereas it used to be astounding when a fantasy TE scored more than 100 points in a season, you can now expect as many as six or seven TEs to push the century mark. Ergo, it's much harder for a new tight end to slide into fantasy relevance, even if his numbers look good against historical standards.

Rookie tight ends, even the great ones, usually struggle. Fantasy owners have short memories and can forget that today's fantasy TE studs were forgettable rookies not long ago.

• Todd Heap -- 16 receptions for 206 yards
• Tony Scheffler -- 18 receptions for 286 yards
• Antonio Gates -- 24 receptions for 389 yards
• Alge Crumpler -- 25 receptions for 330 yards
• Tony Gonzalez -- 33 receptions for 368 yards
• Jason Witten -- 35 receptions for 347 yards

What this should tell you is Carlson makes a compelling fantasy backup in the late rounds, and an excellent dynasty prospect; but isn't someone that's going to win you games in 2008.

Positives

• Carlson is a true 2-way tight end, more in the vein of Jason Witten than a pure pass catcher like Antonio Gates
• The Seahawks are counting on Carlson to contribute right away
• His supporting cast is conducive to a productive season. His QB is excellent, his offensive line won't need a lot of help from the TE, and the WR corps lacks depth

Negatives

• Most TEs, even the great ones, generally struggle for fantasy relevance as rookies
• The West Coast offense is complex, and differs greatly from the offensive system he ran playing for Charlie Weis the last few seasons
• Carlson needs to be more consistent with his footwork

Final Thoughts

Realistically, John Carlson has a chance for an excellent ROOKIE fantasy TE season. But that doesn't mean he's going to offer much value to YOUR fantasy team. It's not impossible for a rookie to help your team (Jeremy Shockey, Owen Daniels and Zach Miller did) but you shouldn't count on it. Draft Carlson as a backup particularly if you have a stud starter; he could be helpful down the stretch as he gets some experience under his belt.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Tight End is a difficult position for a rookie to excel. There haven't been many able to shine from the start up. John Carlson did play in an NFL type system at Notre Dame and he is said to be an accomplished blocker and receiver. He also has a great QB to play with and a shortage of receiving options. If any rookie TE excels in 08, I'll go with Carlson as the pick, but I won't go so far as to project success for him.

Jeff Pasquino, FBG Staff:
If Seattle is thin at WR - Branch out, DJ Hackett gone - relying on Engram and Burleson, Carlson can certainly be a cheap TE option. His upside is about 40-450-4.

John Carlson Projections