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Spotlight - QB Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins

Posted on 6/18, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Jason Campbell is at a critical juncture in his career. The 4th year QB has the chance to establish himself as the face of the Redskins for years to come, but must stay healthy and show a mastery of the new West Coast offense in the process. Should Campbell struggle again in 2008, it's entirely possible the Redskins could decide to go in another direction as the new coaching staff looks toward 2009 and beyond.

If asked to describe Jason Campbell's prospects this year in one word, it would have to be UNCERTAINTY.

In with the ...

...New Coaches
Joe Gibbs retired and OC Al Saunders joined the Rams when he wasn't offered the Redskins head coaching job. In their place are Jim Zorn and Sherman Smith. Zorn, a former NFL QB and long-time quarterbacks coach in Seattle, is implementing a traditional West Coast offense much like Mike Holmgren's system. Neither Zorn nor Smith has ever called plays at the NFL level.

...New Offense
Campbell is embarking on his seventh offensive system in eight years. That wasn't a typo. I don't need to tell you that repetitions and experience are crucial to a QB's mastery of an offense, and Campbell has never had that luxury. The good news is that Campbell ran a form of the West Coast offense in his senior season at Auburn (his best collegiate year). The bad news is Auburn's system was MUCH simpler than Zorn's and Campbell is going to have to learn entirely different verbiage, routes, blocking schemes and audibles.

...New Mechanics
Learning a new offense can be daunting, but trying to teach a QB new mechanics is generally a recipe for disaster. Yet Zorn is planning on doing just that with Campbell. Zorn believes Campbell must improve his release point, the speed of his release and his footwork. While the coaches have discounted the significance of those changes, history tells us that mechanics are not something easily changed for the better.

...New Weapons
Not all changes bring added uncertainty. The Redskins added not one, not two, but three potent rookie weapons to the receiving corps. Wide receivers Devin Thomas (6'1", 216 pounds) and Malcolm Kelly (6'3", 224 pounds) were among the best prospects in the April draft, and bring size to a perennially undersized receiving corps. TE Fred Davis combines with All Pro Chris Cooley for a potent one-two punch in 2-TE sets. While the three rookies will take time to adjust; no one can argue the Redskins receiving corps isn't deeper and more talented than it was a year ago. However, it's also unreasonable to expect three rookies to make a difference in Week One.

Positives

• The Redskins receiving corps is the deepest it's been in years
• The West Coast offense should play to Campbell's strengths as a short- and intermediate passer
• Campbell is a physically talented player and appears to be progressing well in his early work under Jim Zorn
• Chris Cooley is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the league

Negatives

• Campbell is learning yet another offense; and also being asked to learn a complex new playbook and fix his mechanics simultaneously
• Until the young receivers acclimate to the NFL, the Redskins starting WR tandem remains among the league's least inspiring
• Early struggles could easily open the door for Zorn to go in another direction

Final Thoughts

Considering what he's had to work with, Jason Campbell has shown just enough to intrigue Redskins fans and fantasy owners alike. A season ago, despite missing time to injury, Campbell finished QB17. On the plus side, the Redskins field a solid offensive line and RB Clinton Portis is among the league's best. Campbell should have plenty of opportunities to make plays. But it's what we don't know that leaves me cautious on his fantasy prospects. Jim Zorn is a 1st time head coach and will be calling plays for the first time in his career. The entire offense must learn a new offense; with vastly different terminology than they were used to under Joe Gibbs. The projected starting WR tandem (Randle El and Moss) are arguably the NFC's worst and while the team added two promising rookies; they are rookies and will take time to adjust.

Could things fall just right? Sure...Jason Campbell could be a natural fit in the West Coast offense. Jim Zorn could be a natural play caller. Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly could be ready to contribute in short order. If that all happens, you could see Jason Campbell deliver marginal QB1 fantasy numbers and solid QB2 numbers.

But more likely, Campbell is going to have his ups and downs this year. There are simply too many uncertainties to reasonably expect fantasy worthy numbers. If you want to target Campbell as a backup in the later rounds, there is little I can do to argue against it. But don't count on him as a starter, nor should you draft him with the express intent of using him as part of a 2-QB committee.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

fatness:
I expect a slow start from Campbell this year as well. Some of that is due to him learning another new offense as you said. But Campbell is a bright guy, very coachable, and he's said that the offense this year seems less complicated than last year. More of my doubt about him centers on Zorn himself. I'm not sure yet how well he's going to be running an entire team. He seems overly-focused on QB play, and if the rest of the offense is not getting the same amount of coaching you could easily have a QB who knows what to do and can do it, and an offense that really isn't sure what to do yet.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
I expect Jason Campbell to move forward off last season. When watching him, I see a young QB that shows composure, a big arm and some leadership. The Redskins selected two quality receivers in the draft that are tall targets. If there's one thing I've noticed about Campbell, he tends to throw the ball high to his receivers and having these two leapers will benefit his throwing style, more so than say a Santana Moss.

Tatum Bell:
In mitigation of what Jason said, Campbell ran the WCO - successfully, I might add - his senior year at Auburn, but it's true that the terminology of the offense couldn't be more different than the Coryell-inspired system that Gibbs and Saunders ran (Gibbs and Saunders did use the same terminology, so at least that didn't change for Campbell). The WR's seem to be happier with the new system if their offseason quotes are to be believed.

As for quality of receivers, QB's have excelled with less to throw to than Moss and Cooley (and Portis out of the backfield), so the key for me is Moss' health. If he's healthy (it's always his hamstrings or groin that are the problem), then they should be fine. If Moss is out, they've got problems in the receiving corps unless and until Thomas or Kelly or someone else shows they can play. Randle El, like Wes Welker, can make plays as a complimentary target, but not if he's the best WR on the field.

Jason Campbell Projections