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Spotlight - WR Plaxico Burress, New York Giants

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Plaxico Burress has been a very good fantasy receiver throughout his NFL career. He has had a number of strong seasons but perhaps none so much as his very special 2007 season that elevated him from a solid WR1 to a Super Bowl champion. It wasn't because of the statistics he put up however that made the year so memorable but rather the mental toughness he displayed to play through injury all season in helping the Giants stun the world with a Super Bowl victory. It is doubtful the Giants would have won the championship last year without Burress doing what he did on the field; his finishing the year as the 10th best fantasy receiver was nothing short of miraculous.

Can Burress continue to be a leader for the Giants with his mental and physical toughness as he was in 2007? Burress was inspiring last season with his ability to put up statistics each week despite being unable to practice throughout the year. He finished with 1,025 receiving yards and a career-best 12 touchdowns despite being severely hampered by the ankle injury. Once considered a weak point in his development, last year Burress appeared to turn the corner from selfish, self-centered player to a devoted, team-first leader on the field. However just when you think it's safe to talk only about Burress' fantasy worth this season, news blurbs have broken this offseason that are of real concern in regards to Burress this season and beyond.

The following two news blurbs below have been copied from our news page:

June 11, 2008, 15:44
Giants :: WR
Giants WR Burress Skips Work Over Contract Dispute
Mike Garafolo, Newark Star-Ledger

Rather than play under the contract he signed, New York Giants WR Plaxico Burress has decided to pout about it and sit out in protest. Burress signed a 6-year, $25 million deal in 2005, meaning he is only halfway done with the deal he signed. Burress is slated to earn $10 million over the next three seasons. Given all that. he's not participating in minicamp because he's unhappy with his contract. "Me and my agent (Drew Rosenhaus) have been trying to get a deal done, so I can (be) a New York Giant for a long time," Burress said today. "I personally don't like the way its going. I'm not happy about it and I'm going to choose not to participate."

June 13, 2008, 11:12
Giants :: WR, OL
Giants C O'Hara Criticizes WR Burress
Lowell Sun, Associated Press

Less than four months after winning the Super Bowl, center Shaun O'Hara isn't happy because he believes a couple of New York Giants are putting themselves ahead of the team. O'Hara criticized receiver Plaxico Burress on Thursday for refusing to practice until he gets a new contract and reminded teammates that the Giants won their third Super Bowl by sticking together as a team when things got tough last season. "Either you are with us or you are against us," O'Hara said.

Those two blurbs above are very worrisome in regards to Burress' maturity going forward. It puts a negative slant on what he was able to accomplish last season and it appears that it is still the money and not the team that motivates Burress when push comes to shove. The fact is, Burress is unhappy with a deal he signed happily back in 2005 and missing practice is disrupting the team as illustrated by the quote from center Shaun O'Hara above. He believes that Burress should be practicing with the team and he likely isn't the only one on the offense with those thoughts.

The scary thing is Burress has already burned bridges in a similar way to this with the Steelers back in 2004. He sulked and pouted through the offseason, not attending most offseason sessions and only showing up when he was obligated to do so. That was his final year in Pittsburgh and he managed to put up only 698 yards and 5 touchdowns that season while missing five games. The parallels from 2004 to the present are similar in that Burress tends to sulk when he is not getting his way in terms of contract resolution and that could have a negative impact on not just his numbers this year but the entire offensive unit. This is certainly a story to keep on top of going forward.

Let's assume Burress is there for training camp and is ready to play? What will his fantasy value be in 2008? Burress has been a very good fantasy receiver throughout the years although there has been some inconsistency earlier in his career with the Steelers. The bottom line however is since he joined the Giants back in 2005 he has been a serviceable WR1 and a tremendous WR2 in fantasy circles. Check out these stats he has put up since 2005:

• 209 receptions
• 3,227 receiving yards
• 29 receiving touchdowns
• Nine 100-yard receiving games
• Twenty-five games with at least one touchdown
• Thirty-four games with 4+ receptions
• Three straight top-12 fantasy seasons (WR position)
• Three straight top-30 fantasy seasons (Overall)

The above statistics tell the story. He has been a consistent, dependable WR1 in fantasy leagues with three straight top-12 finishes but he has never transcended into the top-tier throughout his career with his best ever finish being an 8th-best ranking way back in 2002. However there is something to be said for consistency as well and if Burress' head is in the right spot heading into this season, it appears likely you can slot him into a 70 reception, 1,000+ yard, 10 touchdown type of season.

Positives

• Burress has developed great chemistry with improving starting QB Eli Manning: In fact Burress caught eight touchdowns last season in the first six games until his injury woes began to have an impact on his game. Manning is not afraid to put the ball up high and up for grabs to his 6 ft. 6 receiver knowing that Burress will come down with it more often than not
• Burress turns 31-years old this season and is in the prime of his career He has another few seasons as a top receiver until Father-Time begins to catch up to him
• Giants offensive attack appears locked and loaded for another good season: 1) The offensive line is amongst the best in the NFL; 2) QB Eli Manning turned a corner last season and stepped out from his brother's large, intimidating shadow; 3) Lots of decent receivers to keep the pressure off of Burress; 4) Two excellent receiving tight ends in Jeremy Shockey and Kevin Boss
• Burress has averaged an excellent 15.7 yards per reception for his career
• Burress has averaged 1 touchdown every 7.2 receptions with the Giants

Negatives

• Burress is once again sulking. He is unhappy with his contract and as the 2004 season illustrated, Burress can struggle when unhappy
• Has never been an elite receiver in his eight NFL seasons. He has been close but never has he slid into the top-five
• Needs to rely on excellent YPC and touchdowns to keep pace with other receivers. Burress has never finished a season with more than 78 receptions which is quite low for a WR1 and has averaged 1 touchdown every 7.2 receptions which may prove difficult to match this season and beyond
• Giants want to feature a power rushing attack and strong defensive play which could limit his targets. The offensive line and backfield of the Giants is very strong and could dominate games at times this season, lowering the potential targets for Burress

Final Thoughts

First there is one caveat to WR Plaxico Burress this season that must be mention in closing and that is his current mental makeup. He is unhappy with his contract and with a full three-years remaining on that deal, it could truly have a negative impact on his 2008 season if nothing is resolved. It is one thing to push that unhappiness aside if entering a final year of a contract, knowing free agency and big dollars are looming but the Giants have him locked up until the end of the 2010 season and he could become frustrated and cancerous if something isn't done to rectify this situation prior to the start of this year. If he is sulking heading into the regular season, it would not be a stretch to see most of his statistics drop, dropping him down to the low twenties or beyond in fantasy worth.

If Burress and the Giants do reach an understanding in regards to his contract situation and his head is in a good place at the start of the season, he really doesn't have a low-side to worry about. He has been very consistent with the Giants and there is no reason to believe he will not put up 70+ receptions, 1,000+ receiving yards and around 10 touchdowns in 2008. He has nice chemistry with Manning who isn't afraid to force the ball into him and he is very difficult to cover in the red-zone. The bottom line when it comes to Burress' potential in 2008 is this. Make sure to play close attention to his contract situation and his mental makeup throughout training camp and into pre season. If he appears disgruntled, he should be bumped down your cheat sheet as he could struggle to make an impact throughout the year. If the contract problem is resolved, he'll be top-ten and a good choice as a WR1.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
I've been tough on Burress over the years but it's hard to argue the value he's brought to the Giants. Last year he played on a bum leg for almost the entire season and was still a fantasy force. Before he aggravated his leg, he was on pace for a historic season and, even as a virtual decoy, was still a factor when it mattered most. While Burress certainly has a bit of the primadonna in him that so many NFL WRs are now known for, I think it's important to give credit to those guys who play hurt and rise to the occasion. He's one of those guys.

Now what I'm not sure about is how healthy he is entering training camp. He's griping about his contract; but I suspect the Giants will work that out quickly enough as long as he doesn't hold out [which I don't suspect him to do]. If he's 100% this year, how can you not love him as a virtual lock for top-10 fantasy production? Even if you discount him a bit for injuries, I still see him as a solid bet for 8-10 TDs and 1,000-yards. He's Manning's top target and really the engine that makes that offense work.

Don't forget that Manning completes a low percentage and his YPA is woeful. Without Burress downfield to make tough catches and score touchdowns, it's hard to believe many people would think of Eli as an elite passer [or even an above average one].

I currently have him at 74/1100/10; but there's an upward bias to those numbers if he's in camp and healthy from start to finish.

bostonfred:
Posted this in another thread, but Burress was keeping pace with Randy Moss through the first 6 weeks of 2007, when he had 30 catches for 503 yards and 8 TDs. By comparison, Moss had 40 catches for 610 yards and 8 TDs in the same six weeks. Burress' ankle was clearly an issue and he ended up with "only" 70 catches for 1025 yards and 12 TDs. But he is far and away the best receiver on the team, and Eli loves to look at him anywhere on the field, especially in the end zone. I believe Eli is on the way up, and I believe a healthy Burress could not only be one of the top receivers this year, he could be the #1. There aren't too many receivers I feel that strongly about.

Manster:
I dont care if he's a knucklehead, he's gonna score and if Steve Smith or any other guy can produce on that team, better for Plax.

Ministry of Pain:
WRs with back to back double digit TD seasons are hard to find. WR with back to back to back double digit TD are even harder to find.

But it does appear that Eli has developed over the past couple seasons with the climax in the Super Bowl, so maybe he simply undertands when to find Plax near the end zone. Just using his 3 yr avg since he got to New York...

70/1,100/10...

I just see him pre-occupied with his contract, has the SB ring so he might not feel the need to try quite as hard...I just think he ends up with slightly less numbers than what he has been averaging.

And he is a knucklehead.

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