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Spotlight - QB Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams

Posted on 7/14, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

A quick peek at Marc Bulger's final year-by-year ranking tells you all you really need to know about how his fantasy prospects have gone:

• 2002 -- QB28
• 2003 -- QB8
• 2004 -- QB10
• 2005 -- QB23
• 2006 -- QB3
• 2007 -- QB22

To suggest that his scoring has been a bit inconsistent is more than an understatement.

The problem is, until last season his point totals were the only part of his game that was inconsistent. He was a reliable starter in about half a season in his first year, a solid QB1 the next two years, and a dynamic player for half a season the year after that (2005). He put up 170 points in eight games, which projects out to 340 for a full season. The top quarterback that year, Carson Palmer, had 338. The following year, Bulger again put up outrageous stats en route to finishing as the QB3. Not surprisingly, it was also the first time he had ever played a full sixteen games. Judging from these numbers, it's clear to see that Bulger's only real detriment was an ability to stay upright and remain on the field. As long as he played, he played extremely well.

Not so in 2007, however.

Bulger played in twelve games, but his 11:15 touchdown to interception ratio was pathetic. He also failed to deliver the yardage, completing just 58% of his passes for a career-worst 6.3 yards per attempt. The offensive line was in shambles, the running game struggled to get going, and Bulger found himself being knocked to the ground about as often as he completed a pass. All of which led to a disastrous 3-13 record. What is perhaps even more telling about how Bulger's ineffectiveness affected the team (and vice versa) is how well he played in the two victories he was involved with. In wins over the Saints and 49ers, Bulger completed 74% of his passes for 457 yards and three touchdowns, with zero interceptions. Was it a case of the team playing better and allowing Bulger to perform? Or was it that Bulger was finally playing well, and the team followed suit? The answer is probably a little bit of both.

He is now one of the more interesting cases heading into 2008, with a whole lot more questions than answers. Is he the player who was consistently on a top ten pace, or is he the guy who looked like he had never thrown a football in his life in 2007? Is he just going to tease us again with his potential, only to miss five games and ruin another season? Will the Rams resurface now that everyone is seemingly back to full health, or will a brutal early-season passing schedule doom Bulger to mediocrity (or worse)?

Positives

• Bulger has thrown for 20+ touchdowns three times, and has three top ten finishes in his career, so the potential to excel is certainly there
• After a team-wide disaster in 2007, several Rams players are available at deep discounts in drafts in 2008. If you're a big believer in a comeback, it won't cost you as much in terms of a draft pick
• New offensive coordinator Al Saunders struggled to make things click at his last stop in Washington, but he brings a prior long track record of success to Saint Louis to try and help turn things around there

Negatives

• Bulger has proven to be very injury-prone throughout his career, having missed fifteen games in his five full seasons as a starter
• The Saint Louis offensive line is expected to be better, but that's only because it'd be tough to be any worse. They're still consistently ranked in the lower tier of lines
• Isaac Bruce is gone, Torry Holt (and his knee) is another year older, and Steven Jackson appears ready to regroup from a down year in 2007. Fact is, the Rams may not throw it around the yard quite like we're used to anymore

Final Thoughts

I think it's still a bit too soon to declare Bulger dead and buried for fantasy purposes. While no one expects the Rams to go out and put up 4,000 yards of passing offense and 25 touchdowns any time soon, they're also not the awful mess we saw a year ago. After all, Bulger is still just one season removed from a top three finish at the QB position. That was likely the peak of his success, but he didn't suddenly become a terrible quarterback in one season -- at least not at the still-young age of thirty.

All that being said, don't reach for Bulger in drafts this summer just because he was great two years ago. Do not confuse this Saint Louis offense with the one they ran under Mike Martz. They are two completely different animals, and if you're expecting anywhere near the levels of production Bulger once put up, you are likely to be sorely disappointed. The one positive you've got going for you (if you're a believer in Bulger, that is) is that you needn't spend a very high pick to get him this year. There are enough people who are plenty down on him that his ADP is somewhere around Round 8. I still probably wouldn't spring for him at that point, but at least it's a fairly reasonable spot for your starting QB. He does have the track record that few players around his ADP have. If you're fortunate enough to be in a league where everyone employs the strategy of waiting on a quarterback, continue to stockpile talent at the skill positions and perhaps snag Bulger a full round or two later. But if your league likes to take the quarterback fairly early, he isn't a guy that is a 'must-have' in my opinion, and you can afford to get by with someone else without it wrecking your squad.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
I don't like to project injuries in the spotlight threads, but a review of Marc Bulger's recent stats reveals that he has played in 16 games only once in his six season NFL career. But, if you draft Bulger you will not likely be going solo, so if you can get him later than his ADP and make sure you have another capable guy, you could have success.

Over the years, Bulger has been accurate completing just under 65% of his passes. He has also averaged 7.5 ypa, even including last season's 6.3. In years when he has played almost all the games, he has had over twenty TDs each year. If you believe that Saunders will give him a little bump, those sound like solid numbers for a lead QB in a QBBC.

a_troll00:
In the Shark Pool during this non playing season, I'm seeing lots of doom and gloom concerning Marc Bulger.

DOOOOM AND GLOOOOM, DOOOOM AND GLOOOOM

He's injured all the time, he'll certainly miss half of this next season!

The soon to be 36 year old WR Isaac Bruce has moved on. The situation for Bulger is hopeless, just hopeless!

Looking at Marc Bulger, he has been an absolute QB stud throughout his career. Let's take a look at his previous season and his passing averages:

2003: 256 PYD/game
2004: 283 PYD/game
2005: 287 PYD/game
2006: 268 PYD/game 2007: an absolutely abysmal season for the entire Rams team

The fact is, Bulger is an absolute production machine. When both he and the Rams are healthy, you can expect him to average 250 yds per game. Yes, the Rams were mauled by the injury bug last year. No, it will not be nearly as bad this year.

Isaac Bruce is gone, but lets face it, the guy is past his prime. There are still many weapons for Bulger to work with: Holt, Jackson, McMichael. Also, Bennett is no slouch. He can definitely be productive at the WR position.

Marc Bulger is simply a stud QB that you can get very cheap this season.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
Marc Bulger, once the QB of the Greatest Show on Turf was the QB of an offense that leaked holes all over the place. The main problem the Rams had last year is their offensive line. Marc Bulger has had incredible timing with his receivers in the past and allowing defenders to drape themselves on him as he's trying to throw disrupted the offense completely.

I think the offensive line to start the season will be slightly improved. Yes, the Rams have lost Isaac Bruce but his skills have deteriorated and won't be hard pressed to fill his shoes as far as overall numbers are concerned.

The bottom line is I wouldn't feel comfortable drafting Marc Bulger as your QB1 without having a backup on your roster who you feel like you could also go with. I think Bulger is a good QB to insert during positive matchups and goes well with a QB by committee approach for your team in 08.

Jon_Moore:
It baffles me that people are so down on him, he's going to represent insane value this year.

A year ago, much of the offensive line was injured, including Pace which probably had the biggest impact on him. A franchise calliber tackle going down causes all kinds of problems for the offense.

Steven Jackson, one of the best skill position players in the league missed the first 4 games,Torry Holt was dinged up a good chunk of the season, Bruce didn't really do his thing, and Bennett was just never that good.

This season, he should enter with a healthy offensive line, including Pace, Jackson and Holt should be 100%, and they brought in Donny Avery in the VERY early 2nd round. They should be able to get back to being one of the top offenses in the NFL. The defense should continue to stink, so he'll be playing shootout quite often.

For his career, he's averaged over 250 Yards a game and nearly 1.5 TDs a game with a 63.5% completion rate. I think last year will prove to be a very down year and he'll be an absolute STEAL in the 7th round.

Marc Bulger Projections