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Spotlight - WR Isaac Bruce, San Francisco 49ers

Posted on 6/13, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Pasquino's Thoughts

Some things get better with age -- fine wine, classic cars, and your significant other (hey, I never know who is reading these). Now you can add veteran wide receivers to that list. From Joey Galloway to Terrell Owens, receivers over the ripe old age of 34 are no longer, well -- ripe. Owens turns 35 this fall, while Bruce (36) and Galloway (37) are getting up in years themselves.

Isaac Bruce headed west this offseason, as the St. Louis Rams made a salary cap decision and let Bruce go in March. Bruce, who would have cost the Rams $5M for 2008, leaves St. Louis after racking up over 14,000 receiving yards and 942 receptions, putting him at 6th place for all-time receptions and 3rd for total yardage. He is also 13th all time in receiving touchdowns with 84 and is the most prolific receiver in Rams history in every category.

History is great, but none of that is going to help your fantasy team for this year. The good news for Bruce is that he was signed to be the #1 receiver for the 49ers this year and is reunited with offensive coordinator Mike Martz once again, who both date back with the Rams all the way to the days in Los Angeles. As part of the "Greatest Show on Turf", Bruce had his best seasons with Martz as his coach. Now the 49ers have both at their disposal and Bruce will be the #1 WR for the 49ers in 2008.

Can Bruce put up the kinds of numbers that made him a Pro Bowl receiver from 1999-2001? Probably not, as the offense for the Rams back then had more talent than San Francisco does -- but there is a realistic chance that Bruce will see the most targets of any 49er this year. Considering how much Martz likes to throw, Bruce could definitely be in line for his best season in several years. Even if he gets just 75-80% of his 1999-2001 numbers, he should be a big producer this season.

Positives

• Bruce is now a featured receiver for the San Francisco 49ers
• He is reunited with OC Mike Martz, with whom he has had his biggest seasons
• While turning 35 this season, many receivers are still big fantasy performers at an older age
• 39 NFL WRs had 1,000 yards or more last year -- with Bruce a starter in San Francisco, there is a clear path and good chance he may break that plateau

Negatives

• Age -- he is turning 35 and has missed at least two games in 2 of the last 3 seasons
• The 49ers are not the 2001 Rams -- and Bruce is not seven years younger. Do not expect Pro Bowl type statistics
• San Francisco's QB situation is less than ideal. The 49ers must select between Alex Smith, Shaun Hill or even J.T. O'Sullivan. Marc Bulger and Kurt Warner are nowhere to be found

Final Thoughts

Drafting reliable veteran receivers is not always the sexy way to play fantasy football, but it can get you a championship. If the rest of your league is drafting Bruce based on his 14-game lackluster performance last year (55 catches on 101 targets, 733 yards and only 4 TDs) then you have a great value pick in snagging Bruce later in your draft. Currently his ADP puts Bruce about WR49 overall in the 13th or 14th round -- which is a complete steal of a selection. Imagine getting a former four-time Pro Bowl WR that could have another 1,000-yard season in the 14th round? Now, you may think that I'm off the deep end (especially with many on the staff picking Bruce to struggle to get even 800 yards) but note this -- 39 WRs last year had 1,000 or more yards receiving. Again, Bruce is the 49th WR on the draft board, and now is in a Mike Martz offense. To me he is a huge value play.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

jurb26:
Bruce is a player in the twilight of his career, who's physical skills are diminishing, injuries are compounding and who's new team is borderline putrid at passing the ball. Not too mention the log jam that seems to be present for PT in SF at WR. None of this bodes well for his fantasy numbers in 2008 if you ask me.

podunker::
I'm going to be higher than most. Some of my reasonings are: Kitna never had a year over 3500 yds before Martz, with Martz he had two years over 4000 yds passing. I think A. Smith is better than Kitna skill wise. He may not be the leader, but he is much more talented. If Mike Furrey can get over 1000 yds in year one with Martz, I believe Bruce can also. The same goes for McDonald. I know they have a bad offensive line. Martz will help that by throwing quicker passes. I also think Bruce will have a lot of receptions for this same reason. A 3 or 4 yard pass is what Martz considers running the ball. He will do this a lot. Bruce is being WAY undervalued in redraft leagues. I think he will be an awesome WR3, and good WR2 this season. I know he is older and could get hurt, so can any WR.

Jeff Tefertiller, FBG Staff:
I do like Bruce as a great bench WR this year, especially in PPR leagues. I project 55-60 receptions, 800-900 yards (averaging 14.5-15 ypr), and 3 or 4 TDs. Bryant Johnson is only signed to a one year deal. Jason Hill and Lelie are not competition for catches. Battle is a decent slot receiver. Also, let's remember that Bruce is miles ahead of the other pass catchers with his prior knowledge of the Martz system.

The Man with the Plan:
He's probably the best wide receiver on the team. Unfortunately the team's the 49ers and they suck. He had over 700 yards last season in just about 12 games. Since he's going to the Niners he'll probably get around that much in 16 games.

Jon_Moore:
Seattle saw a major turnover this year, Arizona isn't close to competing IMO. SF has a quickly improving defense and could compete for the division, and Bruce should see playing time until the end this year IMO. Alex Smith just doesn't seem like he'll ever be good, Shaun Hill is average at best...and most of the offense is going to go through Frank Gore this year.

mlball77:
Wow, based on a lot of these comments (as well as FBG staff projections), I feel Bruce could represent solid value in drafts this year. With Martz serving as OC, I expect the SF offense to put up noticeably better passing yardage figures. And since Bruce is familiar with the system and I don't feel he has lost all that much of a step yet, I think he is likely to be one of the primary beneficiaries in the short term. I look for Bruce to come out strong with his new team early in 08 and to have a solid season overall.

Isaac Bruce Projections