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Spotlight - RB Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 6/27, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

Through the season's first two games a year ago, those who were on-board with Ronnie Brown in the preseason were about to jump ship. Visions of new head coach Cam Cameron turning Brown into an east coast version of LaDainian Tomlinson were sorely disappointed to see Brown tally just 141 yards from scrimmage and zero touchdowns through the season's first two weeks. The preseason whispers about Jesse Chatman seeing a larger portion of the offense were beginning to turn into screams, and Brown owners were losing patience. After all, this wasn't a guy who had experienced a great deal of success in his two previous seasons either. Despite his lofty draft stock, Brown had less than 2,000 rushing yards combined in his first two seasons and had scored just ten touchdowns despite 513 career touches.

Something clicked for Brown, however, in Week 3 (perhaps it was the fact that he was facing the Jets), as he broke out for 211 total yards and three touchdowns. That effectively put to rest any fears about Chatman cutting into his playing time anytime soon. It also began a string of games in which Brown staked his claim as the top running back in fantasy football. Over the next four weeks, Brown totaled 639 yards and added two more scores. He was seemingly headed for a Pro Bowl season and was well on his way to being one of fantasy's top players when disaster struck.

While making a tackle during an interception return in Week 7 against New England, Brown had his knee twisted awkwardly. The resulting MRI confirmed every Brown owner's worst fears. He had torn his ACL, and missed the remainder of the season.

His offseason rehabilitation has gone fairly smoothly, with no major setbacks. What's more, his ACL injury wasn't of the Daunte Culpepper variety. Brown's knee wasn't shredded to pieces. He completely tore the ACL itself, but the knee remained mostly intact and without much peripheral damage. That will help in his return and rehabilitation, but that said it's still a very significant injury to return from -- especially a running back. Some people are pointing to Deuce McAllister as an example of a runner who has returned quickly and effectively within one calendar year from an ACL tear; others are calling the McAllister situation an isolated case, and they point to the dozens of other runners who weren't the same until the second year back (if ever).

Positives

• Brown finally showed signs of becoming the player the Dolphins thought took with the second overall pick three years ago, before he was injured
• He's an outstanding receiver. So if the offensive game plan doesn't change much, he's the type of runner who will always put up numbers regardless of score or situation because he's so involved in the scheme
• The Miami offensive line performed much better last year than it did in 2006, and should make even more strides this year with first round rookie Jake Long in the mix and new head coach Tony Sparano a long-time offensive line coach

Negatives

• Coming off a torn ACL, an injury that typically requires one full year to return to the playing field and nearly two years to return to full health. He has already missed thirteen games due to injury in three years in the league
• Cam Cameron, who finally got the production from Brown that his potential suggested, was fired. It's unclear how first-time head coach Tony Sparano will use Brown. While Sparano will likely experience more success as a coach, it's not a stretch to suggest he's not as innovative an offensive mind as the former head coach
• Ricky Williams is back, and will fill some role with the team. This will at least somewhat cut into Brown's production, as there have been rumors that the two players will split carries this year

Final Thoughts

I think people are a little too giddy about Brown considering how late in the season he was injured. It's not like he got hurt in training camp or even Week 1. He played seven games before tearing up his knee and his surgery wasn't until November 1. That would put him at roughly ten months by Week 1 of this season. Sure, he hasn't had any significant setbacks yet, but it's still very early in the process. Because he was injured so late, it'll be that much later this season before he starts feeling like "himself" again.

The ACL tear was a complete tear of the ligament. So even though it was localized to the ligament and nothing else was damaged, it was still a very significant injury. Using McAllister as an example of a player who came back and was successful is all well and good. But when you look at some of the other players who have torn up their knees in recent seasons (Edgerrin James, Jamal Lewis, Terrell Davis, Jamal Anderson), there are a lot more that struggle initially than have a ton of success.

That's before getting into the realization that Brown, no matter how healthy, is going to have to split carries with Williams. Williams isn't on the team as a novelty act. He's going to play, and the team is going to find a regular role for him. As rusty and as unreliable as Williams has been, he's still at least as good an option as one coming off major reconstructive knee surgery. What's more, Brown is the future of the Dolphins. They're extremely unlikely to run him out there for a full season's workload less than a year removed from a serious injury -- especially when they've got a talented player with a limited shelf life in Williams that they can essentially run into the ground.

At his current ADP, Brown doesn't represent much value in my opinion. Even if he gets healthier as the season wears on, he'd be hard-pressed to be a top-flight RB at any point with his week to week carries in such a state of flux. Several other players being drafted around him have A) Full-time job security, B) No current injury risk, or C) Both. Miami is still not a great offense and still doesn't have a good passing game to take pressure off the runners, so that's another knock against his prospects. Basically, I see a guy going right around the same spot he went a year ago -- only this time, he's dealing with a job sharing situation and a recovery from injury. I realize he improved his game greatly last year, but he's on a new knee now. Don't kid yourself into thinking you're getting the 2007 Ronnie Brown at a discount in the third round.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Jon_Moore:
Terrible weapons all around him mean Brown should see the ball plenty, though there's talk the Dolphins will split Carries with he and Williams. This plus coming off the ACL injury will keep Brown from being the uber-stud he's capable of. He was on pace to be RB1 before the injury. He caught a ton of balls and that should continue as he'll be a stud in PPR.

Dexter Manley:
At this point I think it's basically impossible to predict how Brown will perform for several reasons:

-- He's coming off major knee surgery during the middle of last season
-- Cam Cameron is gone and he is now in a new offense, with new coaches
-- The oline should be improved
-- Ricky Williams has impressed the new coaches and should carry a significant % of the load at least early on

Has he even been working out yet, running and cutting at full speed? I have no idea.

munchkin:
It's hard to argue with this point. I drafted R Brown with the first pick in my initial rookie/FA dynasty draft. Up until the beginning of last year he was a major disappointment. However, if you compare his three year performance to that of Frank Gore he measures up pretty well. His average yards per carry over three years 4.4, 4.2 and 5.1 with yards per catch at 7.3, 8.4 and 10.1 while Gore's corresponding stats were 4.8, 5.4 and 4.2 along with 8.7, 8.0 and 8.2. Of course Gore, who has fought some nagging injuries himself, has proven to be more durable despite some health questions coming out of college.

All signs point to Ricky getting early carries which hopefully will allow Brown to work his way back into the line-up and prevent further damage to his knee as he recovers. I am sure there are a lot of dynasty owners with their fingers crossed as they look into the future.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
I didn't like Ronnie Brown coming out of Auburn compared to his hype and haven't been a Ronnie Brown supporter yet. It has paid off for me because overall, there isn't a year where he's lived up to his potential.

With that said, Brown still has another big shot to make a splash. He's the starting RB for a Bill Parcells type club and he has the chance to have the kind of year everyone has been waiting for. It won't be for me, his ADP is way too high but I can understand the theory behind where people are coming from, especially in PPR leagues. The amount of receptions he's caught in the short amount of games is impressive and with the QB situation in Miami, he should get a lot of dump offs yet again this season.

Ronnie Brown Projections