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Spotlight - WR Reggie Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

Posted on 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Chris Smith's Thoughts

Reggie Brown is a good receiver in a very strong Eagles passing attack. However after his regression in 2007, the jury is out on his fantasy prospects in 2008 and beyond.

What happened last season?

Heading into the 2007 fantasy season, Brown was coming off of his sophomore season in the NFL as the 21st best fantasy receiver. He finished with 816 yards and a promising 8 touchdowns on the season and had many fantasy owners drooling over his prospects heading into last year. Unfortunately for himself and the fantasy owners who drafted him to start last year, he failed to elevate his statistics and in reality actually fell in some of the major numbers.

Comparison of receiving numbers (2006 to 2007)

Is the glass half full or half empty?

Looking at the table above, the encouraging change last season was his extra 15 receptions on the season. He caught the eye of QB Donovan McNabb more often throughout the season and solidified his place within the Eagles offense. That is an encouraging sign that could pay dividends in future seasons.

However those extra receptions did not translate into additional fantasy points. In fact, his fantasy points plummeted from 138 FP in 2006 to only 106 FP last year. His value did rise slightly in PPR leagues but still well below where most expected him to finish. Seeing his touchdown per reception ratio drop from 1 per 5.8 receptions to 1 per 15.3 receptions was a staggering drop and that combined with his average plummet down to 12.8 are red flags that are difficult to ignore.

Looking ahead to the 2008 season

Not much has changed within the Eagles offensive team this year. It is still QB Donovan McNabb throwing the ball, RB Brian Westbrook lining up in the backfield and Kevin Curtis plus Reggie Brown lining up as the starting receivers. The only real change of note that could impact the Eagles passing attack is the addition of rookie WR DeSean Jackson who could emerge as a weapon as the season progresses.

O.K. so not much has changed. What does that mean for Brown in 2008?

Here is what we know about this offense:

• RB Brian Westbrook is probably the best receiver on the team: McNabb loves to get the ball into Westbrook's hands in space and many plays within the play-calling are meant to get the ball into his hands.
• WR Kevin Curtis emerged last season as a favorite target: Curtis, not Brown was the clear-cut top receiver in 2007. He had a very good first season with the Eagles and should continue to put up nice numbers going forward.
• The Eagles like to pass more than run: This has been documented for years and isn't likely to change. However it is a lot to assume that the Eagles will put up close to 600 passing attempts once again.
• Brown could be pressured by rookie Jackson: When it comes to pure receiver talent, DeSean Jackson has more upside to become a great receiver in a season or two. Brown should have a leg up on him this season due to his experience but could see his playing time cut if Jackson can emerge.
• TE L.J. Smith is back healthy and will see his fair share of targets: Smith was considered a prospect to slide into the top-five at the tight end position heading into last season and then played hurt throughout the year. He is healthy this season and will see plenty of passes thrown his way.

Taking into account the points above, Reggie Brown would have to elevate his abilities in a huge way to improve his fantasy worth this year. He will be the third/fourth option at best many times this season and unless he improves his play, his numbers simply will not improve. In fact he could see fewer receptions this season than a year ago.

Does he have the ability to become a great receiver?

What you see is what you get in regards to Brown. He doesn't have elite size, athleticism or ability to burn defenders down the field. He simply slots in as a good receiver. There is nothing wrong with that and he'll be around for many seasons to come. However in terms of possible fantasy production, he appears destined to be a marginal WR3 / good backup player. In fact, Brown may struggle to hold off rookie DeSean Jackson by 2009.

Positives

• The Eagles are among the most prolific passing teams in the league
• Brown shook off his rocky start to have a very productive 2nd half last season
• We saw in 2006 that Brown is capable of significantly outperforming his disappointing 2007 metrics

Negatives

• Brown lost the coaching staff and his quarterback's confidence last year; but did appear to regain his footing as the season wore on
• Kevin Curtis, Brian Westbrook and quite possibly L.J. Smith will see more targets
• Donovan McNabb has had difficulty staying healthy

Final Thoughts

Reggie Brown is an unexciting receiver pick this season. He is unlikely to exceed his best numbers over the past three seasons, making his upside somewhere around 61 receptions and 8 touchdown grabs. However those are extremely optimistic numbers and the reality is, he'll likely slot in with significantly lower statistics this season. He would be best served as a WR4 or worse in 2008.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
A successful fantasy player is comprised of one part talent and one part opportunity. Reggie Brown is rather weak on the talent, but his opportunity has been good and growing. I am still in the camp that Brown is overrated as a WR and when (not if) he is supplanted as a key cog in Philly's offense he will disappear. It possibly could still happen in 08, but it is less likely than I thought during the offseason. I think that Curtis grows in his second year in the system and other players play a larger role and Brown sees his share decrease.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
I don't know why I'm not a Reggie Brown fan, he has every right to improve. He's only going into his 4th year but I feel like we've already seen what he has, that he may not be the type of player who will bust out. I don't think we see anything more out of Reggie this year than we've seen in the past.

Chaos Commish:
Reggie is a freakish talent who hasn't been able to put it together, but I believe he is the WR1 in Philly and finally putting things together. Over the last six weeks last season in standard scoring he was WR21. A viable WR2 on your fantasy team and hopefully a very solid WR3. He was key to a messy team I had actually worming it's way into the championship game. During those six weeks Brown outproduced TJ Houshmandzadeh, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Dwayne Bowe, Lee Evans, Jerricho Cotchery, Calvin Johnson, and Santana Moss; all of whom I expect to be drafted before him (rightfully so in many cases). Still, Reggie Brown is a nice value play at his ADP.

kerpow:
Going into last season, Brown looked like he could cement the #1 WR spot after Stallworth left. The fact is that Curtis came in, a perennial #3 WR in St. Louis, and outperformed him in every category. Curtis is faster which makes him the deep threat, while Westbrook and Smith get the dinks and dunks.

Jon_Moore:
At times in 2006, Brown looked like a pro-bowler in waiting. If you look at his 2007 numbers, you'd guess he regressed. It's worth noting that in 06, he caught 17 passes for 274 Yards and 3 Touchdowns when Mcnabb didn't play. That's 37% of his receptions, 1/3 of his yards, and 38% of his touchdowns coming in only 5 games--without McNabb. He had more success without him.

However, to me, the telling stat is his yards per reception. In 2006, he averaged nearly 17.7 per catch, only 12.8 in 2007--while Curtis had 14.4. Curtis is seeing the deep balls while Brown worked the underneath, which just isn't his specialty. I can't see them changing his role in 2008, so I don't see a return to the 2006 Brown

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