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Spotlight - QB Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Posted on 6/13, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

The old adage goes, 'Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me'.

Last year at this time, I wrote in the Drew Brees Spotlight that I figured there was no way the Saints would put the ball in the air as many times as they did in 2006. I figured with two Pro Bowl caliber running backs and an improving defense that we'd see a reduction in Brees' stats due to factors beyond his control. Four weeks into the season, he had just one touchdown against nine interceptions and I was looking like a pretty smart fellow. Fortunately for me, I didn't toot my own horn about it because he went on to rip off a string of games that once again put him in the top five fantasy passers.

Fooled me once.

• Little did I know that Deuce McAllister would be seriously injured, again.
• Little did I know Reggie Bush was NOT actually the second coming of Barry Sanders.
• Little did I know the Saints improving defense was, um, not that improved.

Brees' string of games beginning in Week 5 was simply incredible. He put up numbers over the final twelve games that, if extrapolated out over an entire season, would have given him 402.4 fantasy points in sixteen games. To give a frame of reference of what that means, going back to 2001 there have only been three quarterbacks who have put up as many as 402 fantasy points in a single season: Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper in 2004, and Tom Brady in 2007. That's the sort of company Brees was keeping with the pace he was on.

Now here we are heading into 2008 and the New Orleans defense actually does appear to be vastly improved. Like last year, however, it is still something of a question mark. One can certainly see the team holding its opponents under oh, thirty points or so every now and then, but no one truly knows how a defensive unit will gel with several new pieces. The running game is also a question mark, with both Bush and McAllister attempting to return from knee injuries. So I can't get past the fact that Brees has played very well for four straight seasons and out of his mind in three of the last four. To borrow a quote from Roger Daltrey, "I won't get fooled again."

Positives

• Coming off four straight top-ten finishes, including being ranked two and four the past two seasons. He's almost assured of posting a top-ten season, something few quarterbacks can say
• Brees is very durable, having not missed a game to injury in nearly five years
• The Saints feature several outstanding skill position supporting cast members to ensure continuity within the offense

Negatives

• Started off horribly a year ago, with just one touchdown and nine interceptions through the first four games of the season. While it proved to be an aberration, it was a far longer stretch of bad play than any of the other "elite" quarterbacks (Brady, Manning) have ever gone through
• There's not a great discrepancy between QB3 and QB8. If he even slips just a bit, it could drop him from third round caliber down to fifth or sixth and reduce his value even if his 'real-life' effectiveness remains the same
• The defensive improvements this time around appear to be for real. The Saints may not get into as many 41-31 shootouts as in the past, which could drop Brees' passing numbers a bit

Final Thoughts

In past years, some people would have balked at taking a quarterback in the early part of Round 3, with the thinking being that you can land a top quality running back instead. And that may still be the case. But with so many teams in the NFL shying away from the true stud running back approach, are running backs as valuable as they once were? Can we put a price tag on having a guy who'll come close to putting up QB1 caliber stats while obtaining him for a third round pick? Go ahead and take your superstar running backs and wide receivers in the first two rounds, and then sit back with confidence as your third round quarterback puts up 280-300 yards and two scores on a weekly basis. Brees threw at least two touchdowns in ten of the last twelve weeks a year ago. If it's consistent mediocrity you're looking for, then you're in the wrong place. Sit down and crunch the numbers, and tell me again if you'd rather have the QB4 or the RB18.

The fantasy landscape appears to be changing ever so slightly. You no longer need to spend your first four picks on running backs. I know, that's sacrilege to even suggest such a thing but it's become more and more true every season. Rather than opt for a second or even third-tier runner, why not put your mind and team at ease by snagging one of the surest bets to put up top-tier passing numbers?

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Winning IS Everything:
Brees had a wonderful second half of the season last year after an awful first four games. The key to Drew's success will be the continued maturation of his young pass catching crew. Colston is still young, as is Bush catching passes out of the backfield. If Meachem can grow and move into a prominent role, this offense becomes even better. I see great things this year for the Saint passing game, and Drew in general.

Jason Wood, Senior Staff Writer:
Every game counts and while it's certainly true that Brees tough first month put his owners behind the 8-ball, those with the patience to stick with him were MORE than rewarded. Let's just put a finer point on how absurdly good his final 12 games were:

*** 331 completions
*** 478 attempts
*** 69.3% completion rate!
*** 7.3 yards per attempt
*** 3,499 yards (292 per game)
*** 27 TD passes (2.3 per game)
*** 9 INTs (0.8 per game)

And here's the thing, the underlying skills weren't missing in those first four games either. Yes, he threw only 1 TD against 9 interceptions, but he still completely 63.3% of his passes. In fact, Brees completely less than 60% of his passes in just two GAMES last year (compare that against QBs like Eli Manning who average 56% completion rates over an entire season).

What was most impressive is the way Brees managed to produce regardless of who caught the ball. The Saints seemed to have an interchangeable cast of characters once you get past uber-stud Marques Colston; and the cupboards are stocked yet again in 2008.

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
This guy is a yardage machine. If you're in a league where you get lots of points for passing yardage and less for passing Td's, this guy gets bumped up the rankings. He can be a little bit streaky but when he's on a roll, he can put up points very quickly. I see more of the same from Drew Brees this season.

gianmarco:
What do you mean by "streaky"? Inconsistent? Because of that's what you mean, I think you're kind of off on him. He definitely had a slow start, but that was almost entirely as a result of terrible O-line play. But, starting week 5, Brees delivered every single week. Not just some big weeks and some poor weeks. In fact, in terms of consistency AND production, I can't think of anyone better than Brees aside from Manning.

From games 5-16, he had 2+ TDs EVERY week except twice (and in both games, he still threw for 290 yds). In games 5-16, he threw under 250 yds twice (219 and 179). As stated just prior, he had 2 TDs in both of those games. So, streaky is not how I would describe Brees at all. Don't think you could make an argument for a more consistent QB (aside from his slow start over weeks 1-4).

Drew Brees Projections