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Spotlight - WR Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs

Posted on 6/23, exclusive to Footballguys.com

David Yudkin's Thoughts

Dwayne Bowe led all rookie receivers in fantasy scoring last year, posting an impressive 70 receptions, 995 receiving yards, and five touchdowns. Of the 25 rookie receivers to catch a pass in 2008, Bowe was one only of two to eclipse the 100-fantasy point mark (along with Calvin Johnson). At 6'2", 220 lbs, Bowe has a frame and physique similar to Terrell Owens, and Bowe has the size to fight for balls across the middle and the speed to break free on the outside. He immediately paid dividends after the Chiefs selected him in the first round last year and should have a bright future if Kansas City can get their offense back on track.

Kansas City's Offense on the Decline

As things stand currently, the Chiefs offense is a work in progress and a shell of its former self when compared to the unit Dick Vermeil fielded as head coach a few years a go. No longer do they have an offensive line stocked with perennial Pro Bowlers, Trent Green to post 4,000-yard passing seasons, or Priest Holmes to seemingly score at will on the ground or through the air. Overall, the offense last season failed to move the ball and score consistently. In a span of just three seasons, the Chiefs offense has dropped off dramatically:

While hope may spring eternal in Kansas City, even ardent fans should be concerned that the offense pales in comparison to what it once was and further retooling remains in order. The team seems a long ways off from one that made the playoffs in 2006.

The Herm Edwards Factor

Part of the reason the team has struggled is the radical difference in offensive philosophy from Vermeil to current head coach Herm Edwards. Edwards has a reputation as being one of the most conservative coaches in the NFL. In seven years as a head coach with the Jets and Chiefs, here are the average offense team totals and where that would have ranked in the 2007 season:

Edwards has always been a fan of running the football and grinding out lower scoring games. Teams coached by Edwards have never been thought of as highly creative or imaginative, and his conservative style won't help Bowe mature into one of the top receiving threats in the league. Chiefs' fans are still distraught over the play calling in Kansas City's playoff loss at Indianapolis in 2006, a game where the team could only muster 126 net yards of offense.

Compared to other years, Edwards and Kansas City did throw the ball more frequently in 2007, but that had a lot to do with injuries to workhorse running back Larry Johnson. If healthy, Johnson should again be the pulse of the offense, and Edwards should again be content to eke out yard 3-4 yards at a time on the ground.

The Sophomore Jinx

Prior to Bowe, there were only 25 rookie receivers to score 130 fantasy points in a season since the league merger in 1970. That's less than one per season (25 times in 38 seasons). Only three of them scored better the following season.

Who knows why that is. Maybe it's defenses adjusting. Maybe it's better health the following year to receivers that were out and gave the rookies a chance. Maybe it was injuries to key offensive personnel in Year X+1. But whatever the reason, the huge majority of second year receivers after scoring 130 fantasy points suffered a drop in scoring...to the tune of an average dip of 25%.

Who Else Will Catch the Ball?

It's hard to imagine a receiver doing much damage in Kansas City next year other than Bowe. The top receiving threat should again be TE Tony Gonzalez, who was targeted 154 times in 2007. Bowe was next with 117 targets, with WR Jeff Webb a distant third with 58 targets. RB Larry Johnson did see the ball a fair amount out of the backfield (42 targets in eight games), but there does not appear to be many other reliable WR options past Bowe. The Chiefs invested two late round picks to bolster the receiving corps, but all in all, there's Bowe and not much else in terms of proven commodities.

Positives

• Delivered a great rookie season in a less than optimal environment. Clearly showed he could be productive at the NFL level
• Other then Tony Gonzalez, the Chiefs don't have a lot of proven receiving options. Unless someone emerges, Bowe and Gonzalez will again see a lot of work
• The Chiefs may have growing pains, but they may have turned the corner and could start to post better numbers on offense with Bowe help leading the charge

Negatives

• The conservative game plan in Kansas City could impede Bowe's progress and stifle his overall numbers
• A QB controversy between two less than ideal options also could hurt his production
• For whatever reason, history has not been kind to sophomore receivers that did extremely well as rookies

Final Thoughts

The majority of people will have Bowe pegged to surpass his 2007 totals and with good reason. It's only logical to think that he will continue to adjust, learn how to shake defenders, and ultimately become more productive.

However, it's tough to look past the history of second year receivers, the prospect that Larry Johnson could again ramble for a ton of yards, and the seemingly lack of a franchise quarterback in Kansas City.

A lot of things broke Bowe's way last year, and without any one piece of evidence to support it, I think he will perform slightly worse than he did a season ago. He was a steal in fantasy circles last year. With an ADP of WR 20 and 57th overall this time around, he has limited upside based on where he will be drafted unless there is an unexpected offensive explosion in Kansas City.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

harjiran:
Bowe is tough to gauge ... a gifted, physically imposing WR in the mold of a young TO, mired in a weak, conservative, run-first offense, with an extremely suspect QB throwing him the ball. My gut tells me that Bowe takes a moderate step forward in his second year and improves on last year's numbers with 80 rec, 1,050 yds and 8 TDs. But I think that if this guy played for the Pats or Colts, he'd be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Titus III:
Assuming LJ is healthy, I don't think Bowe will crack 1000 yards. Due to the questionable QB situation/# of touches LJ will demand, Bowe will not realize his full/immense potential anytime soon.

rzrback77:
Too many questions about the KC QB situation for me to be a big fan of Bowe in 08. Last year their OL struggled and Larry Johnson was injured. They has 562 passes and only 357 rushing attempts. I think that they will prefer to run much more in 08 than last year. Additionally, their starting QB is likely to be Brodie Croyle and I just don't think too highly of him. I look for the passing stats to decrease and Bowe's numbers with it. Bowe was successful in his rookie campaign garnering 995 yards on 70 receptions with 5 TDs and finished as WR 24. However, among FBG staff this year, he is ranked 16th and he will likely be drafted similarly which is too high for me.

by the sea wannabe:
The situation is certainly not worse than last year, and he was a rookie. I don't understand all the negativity towards him.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
As for Bowe's 2008 fantasy prospects, for fourteen straight years the top rookie fantasy WR decline the next year; however, the past two seasons, the top rookie WR in the preceding year improved that season (Edwards and Colston). Reasonable persons can disagree about this one, but I think I'm going to be a bit hesitant about Bowe's prospects going forward.

Compiling great numbers as a rookie WR is a lot easier than some think. But there are usually 10 or 15 WRs with a chance to have solid years, and one or two of them usually will. But that doesn't make them uber talented or amazing receivers. There's a good bit of luck involved there, I think.

Frenchy Fuqua:
I don't think Bowe is going to follow the footsteps of fellow LSU WR Michael Clayton for one reason, confidence. The D Bowe Show believes he's good, very good. A good argument could be made that KC has the toughest FF schedule for WRs with DEN, SD and OAK twice. But Bowe put up great numbers in those games against Pro Bowlers: 31 catches for 506 yards in those 6 games

Not too many rookie WRs would have succeeded in the situation he was put into last year and it's hard to see KC's O being worse than it was in 2007. Assuming LJ is healthy he ought to again command most of the attention. Tony G is due for a drop-off at some point, I'd bet he doesn't average 10 targets per game again this year. With KC expected to be playing from behind frequently I like the D Bowe Show as a good WR2, excellent WR3...just don't ask him to run the fade becuase he doesn't like it.

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