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Spotlight - WR Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals

Posted on 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Will Grant's Thoughts

Last season, Anquan Boldin finished in the top 20 fantasy WRS, despite missing 25% of the season with toe and knee injuries. 850 yards receiving and 9 TDS is an impressive season for a fantasy WR. For the 12 games that he played, Boldin averaged almost 12 fantasy points each, including three games with multiple TDS and six games with more than 70 yards receiving. He had nine games with four or more receptions including ten games with six or more targets.

Since his rookie season back in 2003, Boldin has been a fantasy stud at WR. Over the last five seasons, Boldin has played in 68 games. He has had six or more targeted passes in 64 of them, and three or more receptions in 65. Think about that for a second: Boldin has six or more targets and three or more receptions 94% of the time. At a career best 13.2 yards per catch, that means Boldin scores 4 or more fantasy points in almost every game that he plays.

Perhaps the biggest knock on Boldin is his ability to stay healthy. In five seasons, Boldin has only played two full seasons. However, he has never played in less than 10 games during a season, and he has played in 12 or more games in every year except 2004. He's been a top 20 fantasy wide receiver in each of those 12+ game seasons as well. Solid stats, even if he can't play a full 16 games.

In 2008, you can expect more of the same solid, consistent performances that Boldin has delivered in the past. The offense remains relatively intact, with the biggest 'hit' coming at the WR3 position where Bryant Johnson has moved on to San Francisco. Steve Breaston and rookie Early Doucet will fight for playing time there, but Boldin should remain unaffected by this change. The QB controversy between Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner should have minimal impact on Boldin's performance as well. Although Matt Leinart struggled early in 2007, Boldin still had 7 or more targets in each of the first three games, including a whopping 17 in week three against Baltimore where he exploded with 14 receptions for 181 yards and 2 TDs. No matter if it's Leinart, Warner or some combination under center, Boldin will be a solid fantasy performer.

One minor point worth mentioning is that in early June, Boldin expressed unhappiness with his current contract and was making holdout noises if he did not get a new one. The Cardinals do not have a great track record with these sort of things, but Boldin doesn't sound like a definite holdout and Arizona won't go into the season without one of their star receivers. Expect him to be there week 1, ready to play.

Positives

• Consistent solid performance record through his entire career, including three or more receptions in over 94% of his appearances
• #2 option on an offense that will throw for 4000 yards and 25 TDs, regardless of who the QB is
• Fantasy Points per game are more like a Running Back than a WR, with Boldin averaging more than 10 fantasy points per game over his first five seasons

Negatives

• Frequent injuries mean that you can't count on him for 16 games
• QB battle between Leinart and Warner is a minor distraction
• Unhappy with current contract and my hold out during training camp and the preseason

Final Thoughts

Boldin is one of those rare fantasy WRs that put up a solid, consistent performance week after week. Throughout his first five seasons, he's appeared in 68 games and averaged more than 10 fantasy points per game. Even more impressive is the fact that he has had 3 or more receptions in 94% of those games, making him a player who you can count on for points every week. In that respect, he's more like a RB with a consistent fantasy performance week after week. The biggest knock on Boldin is his health. If you spend a high draft pick on him this year, you will have to draft a solid backup for him just in case. Expect that he's going to play 12 games or so, and turn in a solid performance every time he's playing. In PPR and survivor leagues, Boldin is worth even more because of his frequent targets and high PPG. In leagues where you can auto-start your best players, a guy like Boldin is fantasy gold. The contract issues are a minor concern but Boldin wasn't 100% committed to holding out, and the Cardinals will be highly motivated to wrap the deal up and keep Boldin happy. He'll be in the Cardinal lineup on week one. In 2008, expect another solid season from Boldin: A top 20 performance if he misses a few games, and a solid top 10 performance if he plays the entire season.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Iwannabeacowboybaby!:
My concern for Boldin is that he is so physical, he tends to get dinged up. He's only played 16 seasons twice and it's more likely than not, that he will miss some time during the regular season. The other issue that does concern me is Matt Leinert. I believe he limits the entire passing game, and if it were Kurt Warner tossing the ball around, I'd be more bullish with his numbers.

rzrback77:
Anquan Boldin surprised more than a few as he finished as WR 4 in his rookie season after being drafted in the second round of the NFL Draft. He hasn't yet returned to that lofty ranking, but he has finished 8th, 17th, and 19th in the last three years, even wile missing six games. He has averaged over 10 targets per game in his career and has topped 1,000 yards three times (each year that he has played 14 or more games).

I think that he and Fitzgerald will both have great seasons in 08 because of two reasons. The first is Bryant Johnson who garnered 87 targets a year ago is gone. I think that although Urban may pck up a few, the majority of those will go equally to Fitz and Boldin. The second is that Matt Lienart will either be more effective than in the past or he will be replaced quickly by Kurt Warner, who has been very successful with the Arizona WRs.

His ADP haas slipped a little this year and is currently at WR 15, 41 overall, so he will be an excellent bargain for those drafting him there or later.

Sabertooth:
First the Shark Pool should be ashamed of itself when a player like Boldin only gets 6 responses before sliding to the second page. He, and not Tom Brady or Ladainian Tomlinson, is the type of player that makes or breaks seasons. Everybody gets a crack at Anquan Boldin. Every league member in every league gets at least one shot at him in the first round. Obviously not everybody gets a shot at Ladainian or AD or SJax. But those players generate way more discussion. It never used to be that way around here.

Back to Boldin. Obviously he's got a ton of talent, a good system for production, a great player across from him in Fitz and a playing style that may lend itself to injury. Robert Smith once said that most injuries happen when a guy is fighting for extra yards up the sideline. I think this type of situation is why Boldin gets hurt quite a bit. He fights and dies for that inch. That states, I have never had Boldin on a team. I like him as a player but it just hasn't worked out for me.

GoRaiders:
In 13 games last year Boldin managed to still come in as a top 20 WR. First impression makes his current ADP of #15 look like a solid play. And with a name like Boldin there has to be a lot of upside right? Add 4 more games to his season last year, let's see that's 20 more grabs, 250 more yards, throw in another TD or 2 and you have a low teens WR.

If we take a closer look at his numbers from last year you see he had 71 grabs on 99 targets. That is a hit ratio of 72%! Over the last 6 years WRs with 99 or more targets with a ratio over 70% has happened only 6 times, and never repeated (Housh came close and has been consistently high). A conservative % for '08 is probably 60%, which would lead to Boldin needing 150+ targets to get 90 grabs and the upside from his ADP of 15. These targets can happen, but he needs Party Bong Boy or Thank You Jesus Guy to increase their passing attempts (or a injury to Fitz of course). With this offense and Edge there, I don't see a big increase in passing attempts.

Also, last year Boldin had 9 TDs, real nice esp. with 99 targets. Taking a closer look at his red zone targets he sported 7 TDs from only 15 looks. Another amazing ratio of 47% conversion of red zone targets, easily the tops in the league. Avg for most WRs is approx. 20%, which is in line with Boldin's % from prior years. Even if you give him 20 red zone targets, from that you can project 4 TDs. Add on another couple from outside the 20 and you can est 6-8 TDs. Projections with 10+ are definitely banking on a Fitz injury.

Jon_Moore:
For his career, he has averaged more than 6 receptions a game. He has one of the best receivers in the league across him, and a good running back to keep defenses from going after the pass. Defenses haven't had to really respect the running game, but it's done enough to keep the pass viable. If Leinart doesn't improve this year, Warner will step in, one way or the other, this offense is going to excel. They play in a weak division with the Rams, Seahawks, and 9ers, so he should be able to get open plenty this year. He's one of the more physical receivers, so he usually gets himself dinged up, keeping the fantasy numbers down to Earth.

Anquan Boldin Projections