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Spotlight - WR Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings

Posted on 6/11, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Haseley's Thoughts

The Minnesota Vikings want to improve on a passing offense that ranked 26th in the league last year. Why else would they have spent $42 million on free agent WR and fifth year pro Bernard Berrian this offseason? The Vikings averaged 171.6 yards passing per game and had a league low 249 receptions in 2007. As bad as their passing game was, their running game was just the opposite. Their rushing offense, led by rookie of the year Adrian Peterson, was head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL at 164.6 yards per game, almost as much as their passing yards per game. Make no mistake, the Vikings are a rush oriented team, but with a decent receiving threat, they could improve in both areas of their offense.

This offseason was not a particularly strong market for free agent WRs. Randy Moss was expected to be re-signed by the Patriots, which he was, so the Vikings decided to go after the next best WR available in Bernard Berrian. Berrian is coming off his best year as a pro catching 70 balls on 127 targets for 948 yards and 5 TDs - all career highs with the exception of his TD totals.

The question everyone wants to know is -- How will Bernard Berrian fare entering into a less than stellar passing offense that is led by third year pro out of Alabama State, Tarvaris Jackson? Jackson has never reached 2,000 yards passing or 10 TD passes in a season. Berrian's presence, along with second year pro Sidney Rice should improve the Vikings passing offense in 2008, but don't expect drastic changes in receiving production. Not unless recent draft pick QB John David Booty does his best Kurt Warner impersonation and turns Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice into Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce.

Based on previous and forecasted statistics of Minnesota's passing offense, combined with Berrian's career reception percentage of 51.2%, Berrian should receive anywhere from 75-90 targets in 2008. That number will be closer to 90 if he manages to keep the #1 WR role on the team. The resulting reception totals will likely be anywhere from 40-60 with 60 being slightly off the expected charts. Berrian will be lucky to be the recipient of more than 6 TD passes. The Vikings, as a team have thrown only 18, 11 and 12 TDs in each of the last three years. That does not bode well for Berrian or any Vikings receiver this season. The projected outlook for Berrian in 2008 is a ceiling of 62 receptions with a floor of 45. That number spread suggests he should land somewhere in the 50's. His projected yards per catch of 14.7-15.0 should total around 760-780 yards. The TDs should not exceed six and could very possibly be less than five. A finish with those numbers would be right at the border of being a top 40 WR, so draft accordingly.

Positives

• Berrian is coming off his best season as a pro with 70 receptions, 948 yards and 5 TDs. Has he peaked or is there more yet to come? His level of play increased dramatically each of the last two years, Berrian increased his targets by 76 in 2006 with another 26 more targets last year. From a WR standpoint -- he is on the rise
• Berrian is entering 2008 as the number one WR on the Vikings. He will be the go-to receiver on a team that is looking to improve on their passing offense
• His former team the Chicago Bears weren't exactly a great passing offense either and Berrian managed to perform fairly well. One factor that Berrian has with Minnesota that he didn't have with Chicago is the presence of Adrian Peterson forcing defenses to splay with eight in the box to stop the running threat. This opens the door for more one on one or relaxed coverage downfield. Such a defensive game plan could very well change the outlook of the passing offense for the Vikings in 2008 and Berrian would stand to benefit most

Negatives

• The Vikings are a running team, not a passing team. Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings anemic passing offense totaled only 23 TD passes combined in the last two years. Over the last three years only one Vikings WR has surpassed 4 TDs in a season (Marcus Robinson's 5 TDs in 2005). Bobby Wade's 654 yards receiving was the most receiving yards from any Vikings WR since Nate Burleson topped 1000 yards in 2004.
• Bernard Berrian is not playing for a contract. He played for his contract last year. Now that he has it, what does he have to shoot for? Too many times have we seen a player sign a contract and then not perform up to his previous level of play. Has his hunger been satisfied? If Berrian doesn't have good numbers early on, it could be a sign of things to come for the season
• No Vikings receiver has ever had a 100-yard receiving game with Adrian Peterson in the lineup. Some suggest the presence of Peterson is an advantage to WRs who may find themselves on single coverage, due to defenses playing to stop the run. If it's an advantage, it hasn't made itself visible yet

Final Thoughts

The Vikings have made an effort to improve their 26th ranked passing offense by adding free agent WR Bernard Berrian this off season. The determining factor behind Berrian being a success in 2008 is the improving play of third year QB Tarvaris Jackson and the ingenuity of the Vikings coaching staff to exploit the expected single coverage on their WRs. Bernard Berrian will attempt to be the first Vikings WR in three years to reach more than 660 yards receiving. That alone suggests even if Berrian is successful in that venture, it isn't exactly a glowing endorsement for Berrian to be a WR2 or even a WR3 for your fantasy team.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

dmac37:
Chicago passed 569 times in 2007, surprisingly 10th highest in the league
The league average was 532 attempts on the season last year
Minnesota passed 432 times in 2007, 32nd - dead last

Hard to see his numbers improving, as he was the #1 target on a pass heavy team last year.

Warhogs:
I don't expect much to change in Berrian's numbers. The Vikings will most likely throw a lot less than what the Bears did last year but Berrian may have more big play potential since many teams will be keying to stop the Vikings running game.

BigJim:
Personally, I've seen one too many Chicago WR cast offs being targetted by the Vikings to fill a #2 WR need (Bernard Berrian, Bobby Wade, D'Wayne Bates, Marcus Robinson). Rice is ridiculously young and will hopefully bloom into the serious WR threat we've been praying for. With his lanky range, not to mention having the extra season of familiarity, I see him as a better safety valve for a young QB like Jackson. I actually like Berrian better than the other former Chicago WRs I mentioned, but let's be honest and admit this is not the best spot for a FA with his potential to land. There's no way Childress allows Jackson to throw the ball all over the field when they have A.Peterson.

Coeur de Lion:
The Vikings are going to be a good team this year. They will be dominant on defense and have the best running game talent in the NFL (o-line and RBs). It doesn't matter if Tarvaris Jackson plays well or not; he won't see too many 2nd half passing attempts this year. Berrian is also best suited for a #2 role in the NFL, and I think Sidney Rice is likely to surpass him in targets at some point in 2008.

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