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Spotlight - RB Tatum Bell, Detroit Lions

Posted on 7/3, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jeff Tefertiller's Thoughts

Tatum Bell has been an enigma for fantasy owners since being drafted out of Oklahoma State. The Denver Broncos took Bell in the second round, the 41st overall pick of the 2004 NFL Draft. The former Cowboy was selected two spots ahead of Julius Jones, who was drafted with the 43rd overall pick. The Broncos took Bell in hopes of replacing Clinton Portis. That really did not work out as well as Denver hoped after trading Portis to Washington for Champ Bailey.

As a rookie, Tatum Bell only had 75 rushing attempts. His second season in the league was the one most remember as Bell's best. In 15 games, with only 173 carries, Tatum averaged 5.3 yards per carry and scored eight touchdowns. In only 13 games in 2006, Bell's last in Denver, he ran the ball 233 times for 1025 yards and two scores. Tatum Bell was traded to the Detroit Lions in the 2007 offseason. As a surprise to many, his career yards per carry average of 4.8 ranks fifth among active NFL running backs.

After the trade to Detroit, Tatum Bell expected to get a lot of touches with the ongoing injury issues of Kevin Jones. But, Bell landed on the bench after the continual whining about his lack of touches. He did not play after week five. It was with great surprise that we learned of Bell's re-signing in Detroit. He signed a one-year deal with Detroit in an attempt to rehabilitate his career. Offensive coordinator, Mike Martz, is gone and a new system is in place. Bell and Martz did not get along even after the numerous puff articles to the contrary last offseason.

At Oklahoma State, Bell did not average 20 carries a game for any season. His high was 213 in eleven games as a senior. During that year, Tatum Bell displayed the speed for which he is known. Those 213 carries went for 1,286 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 6.0 yards per carry average. He even shared carries that season with future NFL back, Vernand Morency. In college, Tatum Bell struggled with fumbles, blitz pick up, and as a receiver. The fumbles were a big problem, leaving him benched for a game. There were also durability concerns while in Stillwater.

The Detroit Lions will look much different in 2008. Gone are the four-wide receiver sets utilized by Martz. There will be times that only two wideouts are on the field at a time. The Lions are installing a run-oriented system in an attempt to control the clock. Last season, the pass-happy Martz offense left the Lion defense on the field quite a bit, and they were exposed. The Lions drafted running back Kevin Smith with the first pick of the third round of the NFL Draft. Smith was drafted to help the ground game. After cutting Kevin Jones, there is little depth at the position. Given Smith's big senior season, it is expected that he will be able to handle the primary ball carrier job in Detroit. Kevin Smith made a big push to break Barry Sanders' collegiate rushing record, but at the expense of 450 carries. Yes, 450 carries in a college season.

Even if Smith is installed as the primary back in Detroit, Bell should also see lots of action. It is doubtful the Lions will want to fully rely on the rookie. The team has little depth at the position with only Smith, Bell and Brian Calhoun as viable options at the position. Calhoun has battled injuries and is still a ways off from making an impact at the professional level. So, if Detroit does run the ball often, as they desire, the carries will be split between Smith and Bell.

Currently, Tatum Bell has an ADP of RB43 and player 128 overall. Bell is being drafted in a tier of running backs that include Chris Johnson, Chris Brown, and Sammy Morris. Morris is the only one who should get the most carries of the group if he is healthy. The Footballguys.com staff has Tatum Bell ranked as RB48 in the consensus rankings. The highest Bell ranking was by Dave Baker at RB32 while several on staff have the former Oklahoma State star unranked.

Tatum Bell is a ball carrier that works best with 10-14 carries a game. His two career games with the most fantasy points (23 and 25 points) came with just 12 and 14 carries. This would be the best way for the Lions to use the speedy twenty-seven year old. His first game as a Lion was against the Oakland Raiders. In that contest, Bell ran 15 times for 87 yards and a score. The one trait Tatum bell possesses is the ability to take any carry for a touchdown. This is the one reason the Lions need to utilize Bell more. They have few playmakers that can score from anywhere on the field.

Positives

• Has big play ability and can be a weapon if used right
• The club re-signed him so they must think he has ability
• Is only battling rookie Kevin Smith for playing time

Negatives

• Kevin Smith was drafted to presumably be the main runner for the Lions
• Will never be a primary ball carrier so upside is limited. Highest ranking was RB22 in 2005. That was in Denver. His upside in Detroit is much lower
• Has an issue with fumbling and with blitz pick up. Bell needs to improve on both to get more game time

Final Thoughts

Tatum Bell can have an impact for fantasy owners in 2008. With the positive camp news coming in on Smith, Bell's ADP will continue to slide. He is an ideal fantasy RB5, a player that is startable for a fantasy team and has upside, if given an opportunity. He only signed a one-year contract so Tatum Bell has a lot to play for in 2008. There still remains a chance that the Detroit Lions bring in a free agent back to bolster their running back corps. This would be a big blow to Bell's 2008 fantasy value.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

rzrback77:
Tatum Bell is a difficult call as he's kind of been put out to pasture by a lot of pundits. He's the obvious second fiddle to rookie Kevin Smith in Detroit and that has not been a hot spot for RBs since Barry Sanders left. The past two seasons the Lions have rushed only 544 times for 2,134 yards and averaged just under 4 yards per carry.

Their hard nosed coach has said that they will run the ball more and better in 08, but they still have a bad team. Bad teams usually get behind early and its very hard to catch up running the ball.

An interesting comparison is that Kevin Smith is listed at 6'-1" and weighs 217. The considered smallish Tatum Bell who most have said can't take the pounding of a full load is listed at 5'-11" and 213.

I just don't see the Lions running the ball even half of the time. I also see a fairly large potential for a RBBC philosophy with both Smith and Bell. Bell's current ADP at RB 43 and 125 overall sounds more palatable than Smith's RB 34 and 78 overall.

Jon_Moore:
Bell is an average all-around talent. He's outstanding at getting around the corner and going long, or breaking off 20 yards after finding a huge hole. But, if that's not there, he's pretty much useless. He could be an interesting guy to watch this year. Kevin Smith hasn't proven anything in the pros--Bell has at least a 1000 Yard season under his belt. Still, because of his limitations, Bell is going to be second fiddle. Still, look for him to break off several long runs, and a handful of long TDs.

Jason Wood, Senior Writer:
Tatum Bell is the definition of a bubble Spotlight. As I map out the schedule each year, there a few players that make the cut BARELY and a few that miss BARELY. Bell was easily the last guy in. Here's what we know...he didn't jell with Mike Martz and seemed destined to land on his 3rd team after entering free agency this offseason. But with Mike Martz' departure, and Kevin Jones' injury risk, the Lions re-signed the former Oklahoma State Cowboy to a one-year deal. As we know, the Lions WANT to morph into a ball control offense this year. Whether they have the defense, offensive line and RBs to make that happen remains to be seen.

The way I see it, Bell doesn't control his own destiny this year. If rookie Kevin Smith comes in signed, in shape and ready to learn, I expect he'll immediately take over the starting role. Bell would be in the position to spell Smith on occasion, but doesn't have the natural receiving abilities or goal-line prowess to become a regular specialist. On the other hand, if Smith struggles as rookies often do, Bell may end up starting some games. Just because Bell would be an NFL "starter" doesn't mean you should count on him in your fantasy lineup. Yet, any NFL RB that gets regular PT is worth having on a roster arguably; just don't pay much for the "honor."

Tatum Bell Projections