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Spotlight - QB John Beck, Miami Dolphins

Posted on 7/25, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Mike Brown's Thoughts

The Miami quarterback situation, once a bastion of stability in the NFL, has undergone a long-term period as one of the league's black holes of productivity. Where Dan Marino once threw for 48 touchdown passes in a single season, Dolphin signal-callers of today have thrown for just 50 touchdowns over the last three years combined!

It's been a revolving door of mediocrity, from Jay Fiedler to Gus Frerotte to Daunte Culpepper to Sage Rosenfels, and this year doesn't look to be very different. The three quarterbacks who will compete in training camp for the starting gig this time around are a career backup, a second-year man who played very poorly a year ago, and a rookie second round pick.

That sound you heard is clearly NOT the AFC East quaking in their cleats.

Josh McCown, the veteran of the bunch and current favorite to win the starting spot, seems like he's been around forever but that's only because he can't stay in one spot very long. It seems impossible that the 29-year-old only been playing for six seasons, because it feels like he's already with his twelfth team (in reality, this will be team number four, and fourth in as many seasons). He has proven very little in his career to this point aside from being quite injury-prone, though he has done a serviceable job at times in the past when called upon. It may be a bit surprising to hear that he's got 11 games of twenty or more fantasy points in his career -- not awful considering he has played roughly the equivalent of two or three seasons. He'd seem to be in a pretty good position to succeed this year because his only challengers are very inexperienced, and there are actually a decent number of skill players surrounding him. But second-year man John Beck did most of the work with the first-teamers at spring minicamp and it's not like McCown has some glowing track record to fall back on.

The aforementioned John Beck will likely provide the biggest challenge to McCown for the starting spot during training camp. He has had a dynamite offseason and his hard work has drawn rave reviews from the coaching staff. He's only in his second season so we can't simply write him off after one year of poor play. He's put on some positive weight and has a lot to prove after the moves Miami made. While he may have been unfairly brushed aside by team management, they have no connection to his having been drafted. And as such, they owe him no loyalty. The team added a veteran in McCown and then spent a second round pick on Chad Henne from Michigan in April, suggesting they don't really believe in Beck as the long-term solution there. So Beck's days may be numbered in Miami, but he can still put himself into a better situation going forward with a good year this season. It seems at this point that he's doing all he can to do just that.

Chad Henne is clearly the quarterback of the future in Miami. As stated above, the current regime has no ties to Beck and put their money where their mouth is by selecting Henne high in the second round of this year's draft. While it did nothing to quell the quarterback controversy any, the team obviously felt that Henne's talent level was far too much to pass up. He's not completely shut out from starting this year at some point, but it won't likely be at the outset. He'd need to really "wow" the team in August, and there are very few rookies who are able to do that in their first training camp. More than likely, with two experienced starters ahead of him, Henne will spend much of 2008 sitting on the bench and learning from a distance. He's a big kid with a big arm, but he'll only play a significant role if the team falters badly early on and/or falls apart completely at some point -- and both players ahead of him have already been given a shot. Tony Sparano will likely be given a longer leash as head coach than Cam Cameron was given, but another 1-15 season probably wouldn't go over too well in South Beach.

Positives

• The Miami offensive line performed far better in 2007 than in 2006, and the quarterbacks can now focus more on throwing passes downfield and less on running for their lives.
• The wide receiver cupboard is far from bare. Ted Ginn and Ernest Wilford may not be marquee names, but both bring a lot of upside to the position. Newcomer Anthony Fasano is very underrated and could provide a nice security blanket.
• The two-headed running back combo of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams should be effective in conjunction with one another. This will help take pressure off the passing game.

Negatives

• The Dolphins have averaged a shade under 17 touchdowns per season over the last three years, and totaled just 12 a year ago. If those are the kind of numbers the team puts up as a whole, no one passer is ever going to be valuable from them.
• It's entirely possible that McCown starts off as the starter, gives way to Beck after injury or ineffectiveness, and Henne finishes up the last third of the season in an attempt to get a read on him for 2009. This would kill all of their values.
• Miami couldn't get off the ground last year despite an offensive whiz in Cam Cameron running the show. It would be unfair to call HC Tony Sparano out on his offensive game plan without seeing even one game, but the unknown factor of a new coach has got to be worrisome when there's not a ton of talent on that side of the football.

Final Thoughts

There aren't many situations in the entire league uglier or messier than the one taking place at quarterback for the Dolphins right now, at least as far as fantasy owners are concerned. Not one of these guys inspires a lot of confidence in being able to run up a consistent point total from week to week, and none has a ton of upside for 2008 that makes him worth the risk of even spending a pick on him.

Chad Henne would seem to offer the greatest upside, but even he is a rookie with limited weapons. Peyton Manning had Marvin Harrison to throw to, and played well as a rookie. Ben Roethlisberger likewise had a great rookie year. I'm going to go out on a limb here, however, and suggest that Henne will be closer to the other 99% of the QB population and probably struggle initially. He's definitely the quarterback of the future, but it's just as definite that he's clearly not the quarterback of the present.

McCown isn't a guy you ever want in your lineup, either. Sure, he's had some big games here and there. But they've been so inconsistent that you'd probably cost yourself more wins than you'd get by starting him on any kind of regular basis. He's capable of big games but is just as likely to throw up a stinker. And if he didn't get it done regularly when he was throwing to the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, what makes you think he gets it done now?

Only those in the deepest of leagues need concern themselves with this mess. And if you must spend a pick on one of these guys, John Beck is probably your best bet. He was very bad a year ago, but he has worked incredibly hard to come out and try to win the job. He's got the most to prove, and combines the best characteristics of each of the other two guys without the downside. He's young so his upside is greater than McCown, but he's got some experience from a year ago that gives him a leg up on Henne. He hasn't shown flashes of brilliance yet, but no one has seen him enough to know what he's all about (like we do with McCown). He offers moderate upside on this team and should end up with the most playing time when all is said and done.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

FUBAR:
Redraft - Stay away
Dynasty - I'm taking Henne in every league I can

The Man with the Plan:
Beck reminds me of Chris Weinke. They both were older qbs who were able to dominate much younger competition in college. When Weinke went into the NFL and couldn't bully opposing defenses he became the worst starter in the league. I could see something similar happening to John Beck. Last season he showed nothing.

Chad Henne is a rookie qb so you can't expect much from him. He'll probably get an opportunity to play if/when the Dolphins fall out of playoff contention. More or less 2008 is a project season for him. Anything positive that he can give the team (wins, solid qb play) will be an unexpected bonus.

Josh McCown is the most experienced of the bunch and most talented so far so unless he gets hurt or either of the previous 2 qbs play unexpectedly well I expect him to be the starter for the beginning and for the majority of the season. Still he's playing on the worst team in the NFL with no real offensive weapons of note outside of a fast wr in Ted Ginn Jr. and an injured rb in Ronnie Brown. And there's still the matter of him being Josh McCown playing for his 4th team in 4 seasons.

So to bottom line it:

John Beck: Bust.
Chad Henne: Rookie who may start a couple of games.
Josh McCown: Experienced journeyman.

Fantasy-wise nothing to get excited about.

Gatorman:
I believe the Dolphins starter this year will be: John Beck. The staff in Miami has been impressed b him this offseason. McCown was brought in to compete, and Henne is really an afterthought, at least for this year.

The Dolphins had a chance to draft henne at 32 and passed. Why was that? They said they liked him, and had no idea that he (and Brohm for that matter) would both still be on the board in the 50s. It never mocked out that way. In my mind, the dolphins were preparing to draft another guy at QB in this draft and bring him along, but Henne fell into their lap in the late second. What this means is that their "project" QB has a little more pedigree and experience than they thought he would, but he is still there as a project.

So that leaves Beck and McCown for 2008 (or at least the bulk of 2008). I think that the thinking here is that we need to know if Beck or Henne are oing to be our Tony Romo, so Beck gets first shot (in Training Camp and Season) with Henne as the #2 guy late in the season. Mccown is here only if those other two look way over their head.

Predictions here are hard. The main thing to note for any dolphin QB (comparing this year vs years past) is 1) They are going to run a lot, and 2) they will (should) have better line play this year. Beck looked bad last year for the same reason the dolphins looked bad last year: There were too many defensive players in their backfield. Assuming this O line becomes an Average O line, you should see an uptick in stats for the running game and for the passing game. since the passing game last year went through ronnie brown, I do not see his numbers really going up, but I do see the QB for the fins hovering at a ceiling of 240 yards per game with 1.5 TDs and 1 int per game.

Wildman:
I'm leaning in Beck's direction. Although I understand that Beck and Weinke share the fact they were both older when they transitioned to the NFL, Chad Henne and Weinke are more similar as players.

Henne has a strong arm, but is quite immobile in the pocket. He needs to work on sliding away from pressure, because he definitely lacks the wheels to elude pressure with speed or quickness. This is probably his greatest weakness. USC ate his lunch with pressure last year.

Beck is pretty mobile. He moves well in the pocket and I think his rookie year is something one can write off without concluding he's a bust. I like his chances of developing into a capable starter. He's a cerebral player with a great work ethic and enough arm strength and mobility to get the job done. I may be wrong here, but for those who compared Cleo Lemon favorably to John Beck, am I correct to say Lemon had Chris Chambers and Ronnie Brown in his arsenal when he started, but Beck didn't? I should have looked this up beforehand, but just commenting quickly at this moment.

McCown has the athleticism, arm, and experience but I'm not sure he's the sharpest tool in the shed when it comes to being a long term answer.

I believe Beck gets every chance to keep the job with a good performance in camp. The potential for a rotation here does make me nervous because I'd hate to see the Dolphins organization of itchy trigger fingers and not give their signal caller a chance to develop. I do think Miami will be able to run the football and that should help a young QB.

I think the depth chart will be: Beck, McCown, and Henne.

If the Dolphins running game looks good and the defense is playing well, then they might be quick to pull Beck for McCown.

John Beck Projections