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Spotlight - RB Marion Barber III, Dallas Cowboys

Posted on 7/10, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Marion Barber is a divisive player. A season ago, many of us begged - no pleaded - that fantasy owners recognize just what a talented runner Barber was; and to look past the coaching staff's seeming obsession with running mate Julius Jones. Despite Barber being the better player in virtually every measure, it was Jones that seemed poised to remain the nominal "starter" and to log the majority of carries between the 20s.

On the other hand, his detractors argued that we were overvaluing Barber's 2006 season and that, other than a major jump in rushing TDs, he was the same part-time contributor he was in 2005.

While those arguing that point were horribly mistaken, I can't fault them for coming to that conclusion because, on the surface, the numbers appeared to bear that out:

Looking at those numbers, you might at first conclude that Barber's increased fantasy value was solely because of his rushing TDs growing from 5 to 14. And yet, savvy fantasy owners (and those who listened to us), recognized that Barber was set for further growth in 2007.

Can you say Top-10 fantasy back? Wade Phillips could...

The best thing to ever happen to Marion Barber was Bill Parcells leaving the Cowboys. For some reason, Parcells just couldn't see what we all could; Julius Jones didn't deserve to be the feature back. With the hiring of Wade Phillips and, as importantly, offensive coordinator Jason Garrett, Barber was on a level playing field and needed only to show the skills we knew he possessed to become a more vital piece of the offensive puzzle.

Last year, Marion Barber's increased workload allowed him to finish as the 7th-best fantasy RB.

Can things get even better in 2008? You better believe it...

Why do I think Barber can further improve on his fantasy productivity? Because his productivity came last year on only 248 touches. Barber averaged 0.80 fantasy points per touch last year, 4th best among all NFL backs:

1. Adrian Peterson (MIN) -- 0.93 FPTs/Game
2. Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) -- 0.83 FPTs/Game
3. LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) -- 0.82 FPTs/Game
4. Marion Barber (DAL) -- 0.80 FPTs/Game
5. Joseph Addai (IND) -- 0.77 FPTs/Game

In 2006, Barber ranked #1 in the same metric. Basically Barber does a lot with what he's given. And there's every reason to think he'll see more touches in 2008.

Reason #1 -- Sayonara Julius Jones

Julius Jones and his 186 touches last season are gone for Seattle. In his place, a pair of rookie RBs, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice. Yes, Jones (a 1st round pick) should play a role, but to think he'll immediately command as much as 40% of the touches seems foolish, in my view.

Reason #2 -- Hello monster contract extension

Barber was a restricted free agent and the Cowboys were under no obligation to give him a new extension this year; although they had every reason to do so IF they thought he was the future of the position. Fast forward to May when Barber signed a 7-year, $45mm contract that contains $16mm in guaranteed money. That's not the kind of money Jerry Jones would pay a part-time runner; Barber will be THE workhorse this year and into the future.

Positives

• Barber has been one of the most productive backs on a per touch basis in his career, and stands to see a career-high for touches this year as the new lead back
• Barber has the skills to flourish in all downs and distances; he's an excellent short yardage back, a polished receiver and has a 2nd gear when he hits the open field
• His offensive supporting cast (offensive line, Romo, the receiving corps) are potent and assure that defenses won't be able to scheme Barber out of the game plan

Negatives

• Barber has yet to handle the full workload that normally comes with a 1st round fantasy back
• Felix Jones is a true talent and could conceivably turn the Cowboys backfield into another committee situation if he learns the playbook and blocking schemes quickly
• Given his ADP, Barber doesn't represent the obvious value that he has in past drafts

Final Thoughts

Marion Barber was the 7th best fantasy back last year despite only notching 204 carries. This offseason, the Cowboys parted ways with Julius Jones, signed Barber to a monster new deal, and re-signed Flozell Adams to keep the offensive line intact. Although Felix Jones is a talented runner in his own right, there's no reason to think someone with Barber's pedigree (and contract!) won't be given the chance to be a bellcow, at least for the 2008 season. In the off chance your league mates worry too much about Felix Jones or whether Barber can handle more touches, be sure to capitalize on their apprehension. Barber should be a solid RB1 in almost any league format. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

The Man with the Plan:
He can run. He can catch. He plays in an incredible offense. What's not to like about Marion Barber? The Cowboys didn't give him 45 million (15 guaranteed) so he could be a part of some running back committee. If he can get enough touches in this offense I think the sky's the limit. Top-10, Top-5, Top-3. If everything broke right for him he could even be the #1 fantasy RB. He has that kind of upside.

rzrback77:
Marion Barber is a beast, but he does not have any self-preservaton instinct. He seems to never run out of bounds and appears to look for LBs and SSs to punish as they make the tackle. For the sake of Cowboy fans and Barber owners, he needs to develop a little sense of LT and his penchant for stepping out of bounds before the hit. He truly is one of the hardest runners in the NFL.

I don't expect Felix Jones to siphon off as many carries as the previous Jones did, unless Barber is injured. I never project injuries, but the way Barber runs sure does give me pause. So, the quandry is whether he will indeed get more opportunities as the starter than he has in the previous three years. I'll project an increase of 15% on rushing opportunities over last year. Receptions may slip a little as that will be Felix Jones role more than JJ a year ago.

switz:
I don't see Barber taking 70% (or 273) carries. I just can't see him getting that workload. It would require 17 carries per game (272) and there were only three games last season where he had 17+ carries. And only two other games his entire career, making 5 over three seasons where he saw 17+ carries. To his credit, those games have also been some of the best in his career, not merely because of opportunity, but even in yards per carry.

Realistically, the 250 is probably accurate. Maybe even 260.

I do worry if they give Barber a very heavy workload early in the season while they work in Jones, that he may wear down. He's never really had a heavy workload, not even back in college. And when you watched him in the playoffs... he had 16 carries in the first half of that playoff game, and he looked totally beat in the second half. I can see him on occasion having a great game with 20 carries or so, but if it's a regular thing he's not going to hold up IMO.

So, as for carries, 250-260 is very realistic IMO. Can he sustain 4.8 YPC on that workload? Well, given that over the last 10 games of last season he DID receive that workload, it should give us a good indicator of what he'll do on 16-17 carries a game. And the answer is 4.26 YPC. So a realistic yards projection is 1,075-1,118 yards (giving him 4.3 YPC).

Now looking at receptions...

Is it realistic to project 40 receptions for Barber, following his career high of 44, previously averaging about 20?

Well, how did the RBs fare in the past three years? Jones compiled 67 receptions over the last three years, an average of 22, a peak of 35, a low of 9.

Barber, again compiled 85 total, an average of 26, a peak of 44, and a low of 18.

They've brought in Felix Jones, who played some WR in college, and was a better receiver in college than Barber was. That doesn't necessarily translate to the pros, but we can safely assume they will use Jones quite a bit in the passing game.

It's probably reasonable to conclude that Barber recedes to his average, or even to his prior two year's average in receptions, especially if they use him more in the running game. So projecting 24 receptions seems appropriate.

Barber's career average on receptions is 7.0, but that is bumped by one season at 8.5, whereas the other two were both 6.4 YPR. So 6.5 is probably an accurate number to project for him, giving him 156 yards.

Jon_Moore:
The guy can do pretty much everything on the field. He's got the Speed and agility, he's got the power and the hard running, and the great receiving abililty. Dallas's offense is going to give him plenty of opportunities, they finished 6th in Rushing last year, and 13th in points. I think Felix Jones is more a change of pace back than an integral part of a RBBC. People point to Barber's contract as evidence he'll get more touches, I think Julius Jones being gone, and the 2nd back a rookie is evidence enough. Some people point out he's never carried the load, and there's no proof he can, but the 3 times he's gotten 20 carries in a game, he's finished with:

22 rushes 95 yards
27 rushes 127 yards 2 tds
22 rushes 110 yards 1 td.

So, everytime he's gotten at least 20 carries, he's rushed for an average of 110 yards and 1 td.

Coach Pantusso:
I like him for a few more receptions as he was targeted 10+% of the time by Romo in 2007. If he is on the field a little more, and Dallas continues to throw 57-58% of the time (as we should expect that they will), I don't think it is unreasonable to figure him to get the same number of targets as last season, if not more (although I am looking for him to maintain the numbers from last year in this regard).

Marion Barber III Projections