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Spotlight - QB Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns

Posted on 7/7, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Derek Anderson took everyone by surprise. Anyone that tells you they expected Derek Anderson to throw for 3,787 yards and 29 TD passes last year is lying through their teeth. Even Derek Anderson didn't expect Derek Anderson to have that kind of season.

Let's remember that less than 12 months ago, Anderson looked like the odd man out in a 3-horse race for the Cleveland QB position. Expectations for the entire offense were limited given the combination of:

• Three QBs, none of which differentiated themselves in training camp
• An awful offensive line in 2006
• The perception that RB Jamal Lewis had long since past his prime

But if there were ever a team that proved the adage "that's why they play the game", it was the 2007 Browns. The team finished with 10 wins, a top-8 offense, and a litany of viable fantasy starters.

The Road Less Traveled

The training camp battle that never was left every pundit feeling that the Browns were at least a year off from competing. It seemed inevitable that Brady Quinn -- their local 1st round draft pick -- would be under center by season's end. Meanwhile the "place holder" battle between Anderson and Charlie Frye was uninspiring to say the least. Charlie Frye was named the Browns opening starter, and proceeded to complete 4 of 10 passes for a whopping 34 yards and 1 interception before being yanked in favor of Anderson. The rest, they say, is history.

• 298 completions (9th in NFL)
• 527 attempts (8th)
• 3,787 yards (9th)
• 29 TDs (5th)
• 19 INTs (4th)
• 321 fantasy points (7th best QB)

For a QB that was available in almost 100% of redraft leagues after Week One, Anderson's season was the stuff of legend. But this year Anderson is going to cost you. Anderson is being drafted 52nd overall currently and is the 7th QB off the board. In other words, fantasy owners EXPECT Anderson to match, if not exceed, last year's surprising season.

There are lots of reasons to be optimistic about Derek Anderson's fantasy prospects...

1. The offensive line is awe-inspiring -- A year ago the line was a huge question mark. No longer. The Browns hit a home run with LT Joe Thomas, as well as the free agent acquisition of OG Eric Steinbach. The unit played at a consistently high level in 2007 (19 sacks allowed - 3rd best in the NFL), and returns healthy and intact this year. What that means is Anderson will have plenty of time to throw downfield (his strong suit). There is no greater weapon for a QB than a line that keeps the pressure off.
2. His receiving corps got better (and it was already good) -- WR Braylon Edwards (80 receptions for 1,289 yards and 16 TDs) and TE Kellen Winslow (82 receptions for 1,106 yards and 5 TDs) emerged as ELITE talents at their respective positions, and yet the Browns didn't stand pat. They signed Donte Stallworth away from the New England Patriots and he gives the Browns a major upgrade over last year's WR2 (Joe Jurevicius) in that he's healthier and a bigger downfield threat; which is fitting for the style of offense.
3. His offensive coordinator is a rising star -- The Browns offensive coordinator, Rob Chudzinski, is a rising star and could be an NFL head coach sooner rather than later. He cut his teeth running a potent University of Miami offense and was a major factor in Antonio Gates' emergence while coaching the TE position in San Diego. Chudzinski has installed an aggressive, pro-style offense that takes advantage of solid pass protection to throw downfield and/or make use of intermediate crossing patterns.
4. Jamal Lewis keeps defenses honest -- As we alluded to earlier, a lot of folks (including the guy typing this) thought Jamal Lewis was past his prime. It's amazing what a great offensive line can do. Lewis ran for 1,304 yards and 9 TDs last season while averaging a respectable 4.4 yards per rush. Opposing defenses can't (and won't) focus on Anderson and the passing attack or they'll be gouged by a ball control ground game.

But wait a second, are you saying Anderson isn't a risky selection?

NOT AT ALL!!! Anderson is, pretty clearly, one of THE riskiest QBs on the draft board this year. If you compare him to the other QBs in the consensus top 10, Anderson has plenty of warning signs.

• Anderson only completed 56.5% of his passes last year; he's not particularly accurate
• He threw 19 interceptions, 4th worst in the NFL
• Anderson was only an elite fantasy passer for the first half of the season

Take a quick look at Anderson's 1st Half/2nd Half splits:

As you can see, Anderson really benefited from a monster first half, where he trailed only Tom Brady and Tony Romo in fantasy production. But in the 2nd half, Anderson was an OK fantasy passer (QB11), but hardly a difference maker considering most leagues are 10- and 12-team leagues.

What about the Brady Quinn factor, isn't he the FUTURE of the position?

Anderson's critics are quick to remind us that Brady Quinn is waiting for his shot. While that's certainly true, I think worrying about Quinn makes little sense. Anderson is going to be given every opportunity to cement himself as the Browns franchise passer. Quinn is only going to get an opportunity if Anderson struggles MIGHTILY. Consider the following points:

• Quinn is young (23) but Anderson is on 25 years old. Anderson could be the Browns starter for 5-10 years; this isn't analogous to a cagey veteran holding down the fort until the young protege is ready
• Anderson signed a 3-year, $24mm contract extension this offseason, including almost $14mm in guarantees. That's not the kind of money you pay a place holder
• The Browns have a larger financial commitment to Anderson now than Quinn. Quinn was guaranteed just under $8mm in his 5-year rookie deal, and now stands as a VERY affordable backup

Positives

• Anderson threw for almost 4,000 yards and 29 TDs in his first season as a starter
• He has an elite WR and TE combination, and a superb offensive line
• The Browns committed to him financially, and he'll have to struggle mightily to lose his job
• He led the league in yards per completion last season

Negatives

• Anderson is a high risk/high reward prospect
• He completed just 56% of his passes and threw 19 interceptions last season
• Anderson was only an elite fantasy prospect in the first half of the season

Final Thoughts

At his current ADP, Anderson is probably fairly valued. It's hard to imagine he would deliver Top 5 numbers although Top 10 would be reasonable. Objectively, few QBs have as advantageous a situation...good coaches, great line, solid running game and difference making receivers. On the other hand, Anderson is unproven as he really only has one half of a season under his belt that would qualify as elite. Anderson is the ultimate boom or bust pick this year. I honestly wouldn't be shocked if he got benched for Brady Quinn, he certainly has the potential to flame out. However, I don't expect that to happen given Anderson's solid situation, his new contract, and the fact the Browns have designs on making the playoffs which is all but impossible to do with a first year starter (which Quinn would be). My advice? Don't reach for Anderson but also don't completely ignore him. If he's available after the first five or six passers are off the board, seriously consider him but remember to grab a reliable, steady QB2 as well just in case. Draft accordingly.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

Just Win Baby:
I expect Anderson to be better this year, with a year under his belt and a full offseason, training camp, and preseason as the incumbent starter. Plus, the Browns added Stallworth to an already talented corps of offensive players (Edwards, Winslow, Jurevicius, Lewis, and Harrison). I'm not saying I expect more yards and TDs, and in fact he may be hard pressed to actually duplicate last season's numbers. But I do expect him to force fewer throws, throw fewer interceptions, and improve his completion percentage.

Chase Stuart, FBG Staff:
[In response to a few questions about Anderson's "tough" schedule]...The Browns schedule may be brutal (although it probably won't be), but Anderson's schedule isn't that hard. Teams like the Giants, Redskins and Texans may be playoff contenders, but none of them have tough fantasy defenses for QBs. The Cowboys and Steelers are tough NFL opponents, but not especially tough fantasy QB opponents. And the Bengals, Ravens and Broncos should provide four easy games. (Baltimore and Denver may have good reputations, but they don't have very good pass defenses anymore).

Browns schedule = projected to be very difficult
Anderson's FF schedule = just slightly harder than average

EBF:
Anderson was an INT machine in college and that hasn't changed so far in the NFL. I applaud him for surpassing expectations and playing reasonably well last season, but I'm inclined to view him more as an overrated fluke than a franchise passer in the making. He's not accurate and he makes a lot of mistakes. I still think he's capable of producing another strong FF season if he starts all 16 games, but I think Quinn is the franchise QB in Cleveland and I think Anderson is far too risky to draft at his current price.

Carter_Can_Fly:
I don't know where Anderson will be going in redraft/dynasty leauges but I think he is one of the most intruiging players entering the 2008 season. I think specifically in dynasty you can get a 24 year old franchise QB for a much cheaper price then other franchise QB's due to the questions that have already been brought up in this thread.

The Browns O-line is very good and will only be better this year. Anderson has the weapons and the confidence of knowing he can play well in this league. Confidence is a huge part of playing QB in the NFL. Any 24 year old QB who put up the type of stats Anderson did is a huge confidence builder. He has already overcome adversity in his yound career and again he will be facing adversity to prove that he is not a one year wonder. Am I totally sold on this guy? No, not at all, but I think he is being shafted by many fantasy players and may prove a lot of his critics wrong.

Coeur de Lion:
The Browns will likely put up very nice passing numbers as a team in 2008/moving forward. They have too many offensive weapons not to. I definitely think that Derek Anderson will have a short leash, however. The Browns traded up to get Brady Quinn in the 1st round, he is Savage and Crennel's hand-picked guy, he is a hometown hero in OH, and I personally think that he (Quinn) has the tools to be a darn good NFL QB. Anderson will have to be lights-out to hold him off this year, IMO, and I don't know that Derek Anderson is anything more than a decent player in a great situation.

Coach Pantusso:
Anderson's INT ratio is a concern, but it places him amongst some other QBs who are considered fantasy studs and are very secure in their jobs including guys named Romo, Manning(E) and Palmer...so this is of little concern. However, of those other QBs, his pass completion percentage (56%) is only approximate to the stats of Eli, while Romo and Palmer are both well over 60%. Meanwhile, as stated earlier, his Adj. Yd/Att is avg amongst NFL starters. With those numbers in mind...

...One would imagine that the primary question that needs to be answered in deciding where to rank Anderson is determining if the Browns will be winning or losing. So long as they aren't losing too many games early, you can fully expect Anderson to play as many games as his health will allow. Before the bye (week 5) they start tough with DAL and PIT, but they face both of them at home. They then travel on the road to face BAL and CIN. At worst, this team should be 2-2 and will have had 2 of their most difficult opponents for the season behind them. So long as they aren't winless and Anderson has an atrocious TD/INT ratio, the job should be his for the season.

It is unfair to expect Edwards to catch as many TDs (16) in 2008 as 2007, but Stallworth should provide the downfield threat on the opposite side of the field to make up for the loss of a few big plays provided by Edwards last season...this should help keep Anderson's TD totals close to where they were last season. If Jurevicius is moved into the 3rd WR/slot (and can remain healthy) this the this team has a tremendous number of weapons that Anderson should be able to take advantage of. That being said, I suspect last season was likely close to Anderson's ceiling.

Derek Anderson Projections