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Spotlight - RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts

Posted on 8/8, exclusive to Footballguys.com

Jason Wood's Thoughts

Joseph Addai won me a number of fantasy titles last year. He finished as the 5th best fantasy back, and did so despite wearing down in the 2nd half of the season. A quick look at Addai's first two seasons shows the offensive consistency:

• 2006 -- 226 rushes for 1,081 yards (4.8) / 40 receptions for 325 yards (8.1) / 8 TDs = RB11
• 2007 -- 261 rushes for 1,072 yards (4.1) / 41 receptions for 364 yards (8.9) / 15 TDs = RB5

For all of his fantasy value last year, it's important to remember that Addai's 1st and 2nd half splits were quite different:

• Weeks 1 through 9 (Average) -- 21 carries for 101 yards, 1 TD, 3.1 receptions for 29 yards, 0.3 TDs
• Weeks 10 through 17 (Average) -- 14 carries for 46 yards, 0.6 TDs, 2.4 receptions for 20 yards, 0.1 TDs

So what happened? Why did Addai go from monster production to resolutely average in the same season?

There were really three reasons:

• He wore down from the heavy workload early on
• He suffered a badly bruised shoulder in late September
• He suffered a neck strain in November

From what we understand, many RBs would've sat out games with similar injuries, but Addai powered through them for the good of the team. As training camp gets underway, Addai is healthy and well rested. He credits a better approach toward diet and conditioning as a means of getting him through the late season grind this year.

But isn't he schedule a beast?

According to Clayton Gray's Strength of Schedule analysis, the Colts schedule is neither advantageous nor worrisome. Too often fantasy owners look at the names of the opponents and let their reputations cloud their judgment. Just because a team has a reputation for having a good defense doesn't mean the numbers really bear that out.

Any reason to think the Colts will run the ball more in 2008?

Probably not. The team ran the ball 446 times last year, which is in line with recent splits under OC Tom Moore.

What other considerations are there in evaluating Addai?

• Addai is an exceptionally effective goal line back -- Addai converted 7 of 18 rushing attempts for TDs within the 5-yard line; among the best in the league. Only Kevin Jones had more rushing TDs from the goal line. The Colts offense is built around execution more than misdirection, and as long as Addai converts TDs from short yardage, they're going to give him the rock
• Addai is one of the more productive receiving backs -- Addai only caught 41 receptions last year but averaged an impressive 8.9 yards per reception and scored 3 receiving TDs. In fact, of the 13 RBs with 40+ receptions last year, Addai scored the 3rd most fantasy points as a receiver. His 54.4 fantasy points (receiving) trailed only LaDainian Tomlinson (65.5) and Brian Westbrook (107.1).
• The offensive line should be on solid footing as it transitions from the old guard -- Rookie Mike Pollak will start eventually but for now is great backup insurance along the interior line. Jeff Saturday has turned himself into one of the AFC's best centers, and Tony Ugoh and Charlie Johnson should benefit from another year of experience as starters. While this Colts line probably isn't as consistent as the one from the Super Bowl team, it's still rock solid.
• Peyton Manning (if healthy) ensures there will rarely be 8 men in the box -- A back of Addai's caliber would usually have to face 8-man fronts on obvious running downs. But Peyton Manning is too deadly and too good at reading the defense for opposing defensive coordinators to risk such a maneuver. Obviously we're counting on Manning being healthy to start the season after having an infected bursa sac removed.
• Dominic Rhodes should help share the workload -- Addai isn't going to get 300+ carries, at least not if the Colts backups do what they're supposed to. The team brought back Dominic Rhodes after he spent time as an Oakland Raider. Rhodes isn't a game breaker, but knows the Colts offense inside and out. He'll provide valuable backup without posing a serious threat for starting time.

Positives

• Addai has delivered back-to-back 1400 yard seasons, the only difference being he improved from 8 TDs as a rookie to 15 in 2007
• He's a well rounded runner with the ability to power for a first down or goal line TD, while also stretching the field on an outlet pass or a toss sweep out wide
• The Colts passing attack is too deadly to focus on the running game with 8 man fronts

Negatives

• Addai wore down in the 2nd half and went from a fantasy MVP to a fantasy liability. If that was a harbinger of things to come, he'll be overvalued as a mid 1st rounder
• Peyton Manning underwent knee surgery and, although he's supposed to be back for Week 1, this is the first serious medical issue Manning has endured
• Addai has to make the most out of fewer carries than other fantasy studs. He's not broken 1100 rushing yards in either season and won't see 300+ carries in 2008 with the addition of Dominic Rhodes

Final Thoughts

Joseph Addai is being drafted 5th overall as the 5th RB off the board. Essentially, fantasy owners are counting on him to match last year's productivity. Since I'm not a fan of predicting back-to-back 15 TD seasons, I'm going to assume Addai has to gain more yards and net more receptions to really match his 2007 totals. The good news is he shouldn't wear down as much this year, and his injuries weren't serious enough to require surgery. If I had a mid round pick in drafts this year, Addai would be a serious consideration although I might opt for Tom Brady or Randy Moss instead of taking a RB depending on which runners were still on the board.

Quotations from the Message Board Thread

shadyridr:
1. He clearly wore down last year
2. Hes clearly VERY talented
3. Hes in a top notch offense and will get a good number of carries and TDs

IMO hes still a top 5 RB but that being said I think Indy limits his touches a little more than last year. He was pretty horrible in the 2nd half last year (outside of all the TDs).

I got him ranked #7 right now but barely behind Gore & Barber. Id probably draft him ahead of those guys though.

switz:
Joseph Addai is a top-5 talent at the RB position, though his skills do not wow a lot of people on these boards. Every he does looks so simple, that a lot of times it looks like he's not doing anything special, but that's far from the truth.

Last year, his first year starting, he finished top-5, albeit in a down year overall for FF RBs. He only played 15 games, and was limited in others, since he suffered an injury early in the year. The offensive line also had numerous troubles, which makes Addai's success more significant.

I don't see any reason to project less than 280-290 carries, and he should exceed 30 catches.

rzrback77:
Joseph Addai has a multi-purpose jack of all trades and master of none notoriety. He gets sneaky extra yards when there appears to be nothing there. He has value because of his nice skills and his outstanding opportunity. As already mentioned, he seemed to wear down as the year went on and that's why I think Indy got Dom Rhodes back. Let's explore the game by game a little.

First half of the season, Addai played in 7 of the 8 games. He topped 100 yards rushing four times and never had less than 72 yards rushing in a game. He averaged 100 per game. He scored nine TDs. He averaged just over 3 catches per game and almost 30 yards receiving (with a high of 114).

Second half of the season, Addai played in all 8 games, but saw limited action in the last two. He never topped 72 yards rushing in any game. Half of those six games he had under fifty yards rushing. He averaged 53 yards rushing in those games. He scored six TDs. He averaged just under 3 catches per game and just shy of 25 yards receiving in those same six games.

Quite a drop off also in the number of carries. In the first half, he had over twenty in five and not less than 16. Second half, only three over twenty.

Jon_Moore:
In the first half of last season, Addai averaged over 20 carries and a 4.7 YPC
In the 2nd half of last season, Addai averaged right at 16 carries and a 3.3 YPC.

It could suggest he really wore down as the season went, or it could be due to the injuries on the o-line. In any event, the combination of that and the resigning of Dominic Rhodes makes one think he won't be seeing 300 carries any time soon. Harrison was out all last year and may be done, but with the emergence of Dallas Clark, and the hopeful improvement in the offense of Gonzalez, the Colts may look to air it out a bit more this year.

Ultimately, there won't be a lot more carries for Addai this year. The offense is exceptioinal, and they put the ball in his hands around the end zone. He'll score enough TDs to offset the lack of touches. If they use Rhodes more, he'll have fresher legs later in the year and that YPC should avoid deflation.

Joseph Addai Projections