Draft Slot Study - From the #9 Position

  Posted 8/5 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Note… I have received many e-mails thanking me for these articles. Thank you for those kind words. Also I have received a couple that believed the draft was too fortunate (especially the #3 draft slot) and unrealistic. I appreciate your e-mails as well. Let me assure you that these mock drafts are 100% legitimate. I simply plug in the scoring rules for the league and draft for the one team with the Draft Dominator (the other 11 owners are automatic using the 'my draft' feature). Just like in real drafts however, there are times players fall further than anticipated and knowing when to scoop up those players is a key component of successful drafting. Thanks again for the comments and I hope you continue to enjoy the series.

If you would like to see special rules as a part of this series, drop me a line at smith@footballguys.com and I'll see what I can do.

I have decided to keep the scoring rules the same until I get to the 12th pick and then I'll switch to different criteria in the next set of studies to keep the series.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
• Scoring is as follows:
  • 1 pt every 25 passing yards
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
  • -1 pt per interception thrown
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
  • 1 pt per receptions
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
  • 1 pt per sack
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting ninth overall

What I believe are the best slots in the draft have passed on bye and here is one of the more challenging slots to draft from in 2008. The best running back and Tom Brady will likely be off the board at this point in the draft and it will be a tough decision to decide which direction to take. One option is to take WR Randy Moss, hopeful he can put up numbers similar to last season where he was a fantasy monster. It's a little earlier than I usually like to target a receiver but when you are beginning a draft behind eight other owners who have the chance to scoop up better running back prospects than yourself, you must be willing to take chances to make up the gap. Perhaps taking a Randy Moss is exactly the type of risk that would pay off. It would almost be a no-brainer to do so here is a FLEX league where you can start an additional receiver to load up on the position, making up the difference on the other owners in doing so.

The other option if Brady is off the board is to go with your top running back here and hope to make the different up as the draft wears on. At least the early 2nd round pick will help make some ground up on the others.

The third option is to attempt to begin the draft with two good running backs hoping that two good backs and better than 1 great back. The problem I see with this draft strategy is it allows the teams from 1st to 8th to load up on the best WR/QB talent in the latter stages of round two and in round three, really getting themselves off to a fantastic start.

All three options have their struggles in 2008. It won't be easy drafting 9th.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

The key here is to make sure you have three strong players in the first three rounds regardless of position. You'll be chasing the owners at the top of the draft board throughout the draft unless you are willing to take the best available player, regardless of position. If that means you go WR, WR, WR or WR WR QB or even WR WR TE in the first three rounds, do it and don't look back. It isn't always advisable to take risks in your draft early on but when you are in what I consider to be the most challenging draft slot of 2008, you better be prepared to lose the vanilla strategy and go for broke.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens this owner may decide to forgo the running back position in the first few picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation at the other spots. In this type of league, it would be a high-risk / high-reward move to start your squad: QB, WR, WR or even QB, WR, TE. If you do start your draft like this in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent unless exceptional value is there at your pick.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Tom Brady
   RB Edgerrin James
   RB Thomas Jones
   WR Reggie Wayne
   WR Steve Smith
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and a couple of quarterbacks may be off the board when the 2nd and 3rd round picks come around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver or quarterback. In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB /RB, WR, WR / RB / QB or many other possible combinations. Most of the time in this draft position, I envision starting the team RB/RB but another strong option is RB/WR.
   
   Possible squad through five rounds
   QB Ben Roethlisberger
   RB Marion Barber III
   RB Jamal Lewis
   WR Andre Johnson
   WR Hines Ward

Positives of the draft slot

1. Early 2nd round pick can be an advantage

Negatives of the draft slot

1. More difficult to determine which direction the draft will take on the back side of the even rounds. With 18 picks between your own, it can be disastrous if you guess wrong.
2. The owners drafting 1st through 8th will have the elite running back talent
3. Almost damned if you do and damned if you don't here. If you go RB/RB you allow WR talent to slip. If you go WR with one or both picks, you may find yourself with Larry Csonka at running back (OK, perhaps not that bad).

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #9 Slot

Preamble

Let me reiterate once again that the '9th draft slot' is brutal this year. It really is. You miss out on all the top running backs unless you get lucky and the owners at the top of the board will have the advantage right out of the gate. You can make up the difference but it involves really sharp drafting. There are three ways you can begin this draft. You can take WR Randy Moss, the top RB on your board or QB Tom Brady if he slips. All three of those strategies however can cause problems with poor drafting afterwards:

• WR Randy Moss: weakness at RB and possibly QB
• Top RB: Behind owners at top of board who landed possible elite running backs
• QB Tom Brady: may not have the monster season he had last year, weakness at RB and/or receiver.

Note: Many experts tell you to wait until round eight or later to land your starting QB. I disagree in a big way this season as you can see if you have read my prior installments of this series. I see a huge drop off at quarterback between the 1st/2nd tiers and the rest and that is reached well before round eight arrives. The way I perceive the QB tiers this year is as follows:

• Tier one: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees
• Tier two: Tony Romo, Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger
• Tier three: nobody
• Tier four: nobody
• Tier five: the rest

I see a huge drop off from the top six to the rest of the quarterbacks available. Sure there are quarterbacks I believe will outperform their draft position (Jake Delhomme springs to mind) but the six I mentioned are clearly the class of the league and fantasy football. To borrow a phrase from David Dodds: 'the Perfect Draft' in my opinion this year involves one of those six quarterbacks on your roster by the end of the fifth round. The problem is I foresee all six of those players off the board before the 5.09 pick arrives so if you have to use a 4th round pick to take Romo, Brees, Palmer or Roethlisberger, do it.

Well that's enough rambling from me. Let's get down to business. Here are my 18 picks.

Breaking down the mock draft from draft slot #9

Round 1: RB Marion Barber III

With QB Tom Brady off the board, Barber III is the next best option here. I had narrowed it down to those two players heading into the draft unless a top-running back fell into my lap. I did consider a WR Randy Moss beginning but it would depend on having RB talent slide back to me in round two and it is too risky IMO at this spot. I also want to make sure I land a top-six quarterback by the end of round four so I can't afford the risk of beginning with a receiver.

Rounds 2/3: WR Andre Johnson / RB Jamal Lewis

The 2nd round pick is a very tough call. I can go with a running back like Reggie Bush, cementing a pretty good running back duo for my team. However if I do this, exceptional receiver talent will fall to the other owners in round two or three giving them a huge advantage on my team. I decide to take a top receiver in Andre Johnson and hope that decent running back talent will fall to my next pick. Johnson will catch a ton of passes and could finish as the top fantasy receiver this season. RB Jamal Lewis is my next selection and although he isn't an ideal PPR player, he should average 20 carries per game and is running behind a strong Browns offensive line.

Rounds 4/5: QB Carson Palmer / WR Hines Ward

I consider waiting on quarterback but as I have stated earlier, after the top-six at the position, the drop-off is huge. I cannot see Palmer or Roethlisberger sliding to the 5.09 pick so I have to suck it up and use a 4th round pick on Palmer here. Will leave me weaker at running back/receiver but hopefully the quarterback position will help to make up the difference. Hines Ward is a nice WR2 option and in a PPR league, I am pleased to scoop him up here. A Johnson/Ward duo is nothing to sneeze at and have a chance to be an outstanding pair in fantasy football.

Rounds 6/7: WR Lee Evans / RB Kevin Smith

I consider Fred Taylor with my sixth pick but I hold off, hoping he would fall to round seven. Drafting a third receiver makes sense here to make sure I maximize points at my starting positions and I'm in need of a WR3. Evans has a lot of big-play ability and is a wonderful option as a WR3. Fred Taylor didn't make it to my 7th round pick and although disappointed, I am happy to see rookie Kevin Smith available. He has nice upside as my RB3.

Rounds 8/9: RB Felix Jones / TE Heath Miller

As soon as I selected Marion Barber III, I knew I would be targeting Jones in round 7/8. I almost took him in round seven but I needed a good fantasy backup from another team capable of getting 20+ touches per game and Jones is not that player. I am excited Jones fell to the 8th round as he helps guarantee me points at my RB1 slot this season. Heath Miller is a safe option at tight end. Nothing flashy but should score somewhat consistently.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this…

QB Carson Palmer (4.04)

RB Marion Barber III (1.09)
RB Jamal Lewis (3.09)
RB Kevin Smith (7.09)
RB Felix Jones (8.04)

WR Andre Johnson (2.04)
WR Hines Ward (5.09)
WR Lee Evans (6.04)

TE Heath Miller (9.09)

This isn't a bad start at all considering what I think of that draft slot. I have a pretty nice balance amongst the starting positions and should be able to compete with this roster. The obvious weakness right now is at receiver with only 3 receivers through 9 rounds. That will have to be addressed in the rounds ahead.

Rounds 10-13: WR Anthony Gonzalez / DEF Pittsburgh / QB Jake Delhomme / DEF Packers

Needing a receiver badly, I take Gonzalez from the Colts. Whether he is the 2nd or 3rd option this year, he'll get enough targets to make him a valuable backup for my team and he has upside to be a starter if Marvin Harrison runs into problems. I take the Steelers defense in round 11, QB Jake Delhomme in round 12 and the Packers defense in round 13. The Steelers / Packers combo may help me to make up points on other teams throughout the season.

Rounds 14-18: RB Ray Rice / TE Kevin Boss / WR Steve Smith (NYG) / K Neil Rackers / WR Chad Jackson

Kevin Boss is a good backup tight end with upside and a nice 15th round pick. Rookie RB Ray Rice is an intriguing player and he could emerge as a value pick. I add two young receivers here in Steve Smith of the Giants and Chad Jackson of the Patriots that have tons of upside. They definitely fit the 'boom or bust' description and if they boom, my receiving core becomes a real strong point of the team.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #9)

QB Carson Palmer (4.04)
QB Jake Delhomme (12.04)

RB Marion Barber III (1.09)
RB Jamal Lewis (3.09)
RB Kevin Smith (7.09)
RB Felix Jones (8.04)
RB Ray Rice (14.04)

WR Andre Johnson (2.04)
WR Hines Ward (5.09)
WR Lee Evans (6.04)
WR Anthony Gonzalez (10.04)
WR Steve Smith (NYG) (16.04)
WR Chad Jackson (18.04)

TE Heath Miller (9.09)
TE Kevin Boss (15.09)

K Neil Rackers (17.09)

DEF Steelers (11.09)
DEF Packers (13.09)

Final thoughts on this roster

After drafting this team, it reinforced my thoughts going into it that drafting from the 9th slot this season is difficult. Still with a good gameplan and shrewd drafting, you can emerge with a team capable of challenging for the title. This team isn't flashy but it has tons of potential if everything breaks well. I have tons of strength at the quarterback spot and a solid running back dual to start each week. I also have drafted three interesting rookie running backs that could slot into the mix but are risky as they haven't done anything as of yet at the professional level. Those three players are certainly 'high-risk, high-reward' which is exactly the path I need to take from the 9th slot. My starting receiver trio is solid and Gonzalez should be a capable backup. Smith and Jackson have the potential to be 'steals' this season in the draft but it is also just as likely they do little to help a fantasy squad in 2008. I am hopeful at least one of them emerges as a bonafide target this year giving me a strong option at WR5. The tight end position is solid but not flashy and my kicker / defensive positions are solid as always. This is not an elite team on paper but certainly one that can compete to make the playoffs where anything can happen.

Last thoughts on the #9 slot

Drafting from the 9th position is tough. With strong drafting and a good gameplan however, you will come out on the other side of the draft with a squad that can compete. Don't be afraid to go receiver in round two as there is plenty of running back talent available in a giant tier for your third round selection. In addition, remember my advice on the quarterback position this season. The drop off from the 6th to 7th (and beyond) quarterback this season is huge and could make or break your season. Every fantasy season is different and waiting on the quarterback spot could prove costly in 2008.

Have fun and happy drafting!