Draft Slot Study - From the #9 Position In a 14-team League

  Posted 8/18 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 14-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Note: I have received many e-mails thanking me for these articles. Thank you for those kind words and I hope you continue to enjoy the series. I will take a look at a few of the slots now in a fourteen team league. The obvious challenge of a 14-team league is that all positions dry up faster than in a 12-team league, meaning you need to have a good idea of when to pull the trigger at each position to get a strong, well-rounded team.

If you would like to see special rules as a part of this series, drop me a line at smith@footballguys.com and I'll see what I can do.

New starting lineup rules for the 14-team league study (added in FLEX player).

Based on...

• 14-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF
• Scoring is as follows:
  • 1 pt every 25 passing yards
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
  • -1 pt per interception thrown
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
  • 1 pt per receptions
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
  • 1 pt per sack
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting 9th overall (14-team league)

Drafting 9th in a fourteen-team league is an interesting position this year and especially so in a FLEX redraft league. The quarterback position really isn't an option here unless you are allowed to utilize one at the FLEX position which isn't allowed in this study. That narrows down your choices in round one to a running back or Randy Moss. If Moss is available, it is very intriguing to begin your draft with the receiver and possibly even going WR/WR in the first two rounds to start off with the strongest WR pair in the league. However it all depends on how the draft shakes out. In round one, simply take Moss or the top running back on your board and don't decide what to do in the 2nd round until your pick arrives. Then simply take the best RB/WR on your draft board unless Tom Brady falls all the way down to your pick. After that focusing on the RB/WR position until round eight is the smart play.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds and if you are in FLEX league in which you can start four receivers, there is nothing wrong with going WR/WR to begin your draft.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Edgerrin James
   RB Fred Taylor
   WR Randy Moss
   WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
   WR Laveranues Coles
   WR Nate Burleson
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this situation, it may make sense to load up on the running back position, putting pressure on the other owners in the 3rd and 4th rounds to secure running back talent. That should allow good receivers to drop to your next two picks.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Marshawn Lynch
   RB Laurence Maroney
   WR Braylon Edwards
   WR Laveranues Coles
   WR Hines Ward
   WR Nate Burleson

Looking at the above two scenarios, I believe going RB/WR/RB is the ideal way to begin a draft from the 4th slot. However this only makes sense if top-receiver talent slips to your picks in the 2nd pick and a good starting running back is available in round three. Just let the draft unfold and select the best two available players.

Positives of the draft slot

• Can take the draft in many different directions...
  • RB/RB
  • RB/WR
  • WR/RB
  • WR/RB
  • QB/WR
  • QB/RB

  are all distinct possibilities depending on how the draft unfolds. I doubt I would ever take a quarterback here in a FLEX league but it is Brady after all and an argument can be made to land him on the team.

Negatives of the draft slot

1. 1. There is a decent chance you will miss out on the elite running backs.
   2. Still playing catch-up with the teams at the top of the board.
   3. Teams drafting after you in round one get an earlier round two pick in which there are still elite players on the board.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #9 Slot (14-team league)

Preamble

It is very tempting to start this draft WR/WR. However the running back talent available in the 9th is good enough to stay on the more conventional course and start the draft with a running back. Marshawn Lynch happens to be my pick here but Steven Jackson and Larry Johnson are just as likely to be scooped up at this point. Looking at the way drafts are unfolding, with a FLEX position, I believe RB/WR is the best way to start the draft. If talents drops to the 2nd round pick (for example: Reggie Bush) you can certainly make a case for a RB/RB beginning but getting a very good receiver in round two is a great foundation to your squad.

Well that's enough rambling from me. Let's get down to business. Here are my 18 picks.

Breaking down the mock draft from Draft Slot #4 (14-team league)

Round 1: RB Marshawn Lynch

It is tempting to go receiver here as Lynch may be one of the weaker 1st-round running backs. If Randy Moss is still on the board, I believe I take him in the 1st and possibly go WR once again in the 2nd, building the best receiving core in the league. However with Moss off the board, it makes more sense to take a RB here with this pick. There are three to choose from here but with Steven Jackson still unsigned, Lynch appears to be the safest bet of the bunch.

Rounds 2/3: WR Braylon Edwards / RB Laurence Maroney

It is going to be very difficult not to select a receiver in round two unless a running back drops further than expected. There still are top receivers on the board against 2nd-tier running backs which makes the 2nd round pick quite easy. There are a lot of picks to wait on before the 3rd round pick arrives but the depth at running back proves true as Maroney is still on the board when my pick arrives. I quickly scoop him up. I did consider taking Calvin Johnson here and possibly somebody like Thomas Jones in the 4th but this seemed to be the best bet.

Rounds 4/5: WR Laveranues Coles / WR Hines Ward

With three young players on the roster, I switch gears and add two veteran receivers in great passing situations. Coles and Ward should both catch a ton of passes and will be outstanding 2nd and 3rd receivers for my team. It is tempting to add a 3rd running back here but nobody jumps out at me.

Rounds 6/7: WR Nate Burleson / RB Julius Jones

I consider a running back with my 6th round pick but having a FLEX position really does provide more options with this pick. I see Rudi Johnson, Julius Jones and Nate Burleson, three players with nice potential in 2008. I believe I have a decent shot at landing one of those running backs next round so I take Burleson to provide depth at receiver and fill in as my FLEX player Julius Jones is indeed available with my next pick and is a good depth / possible FLEX player for my team.

Rounds 8/9: QB Matt Schaub / RB Brandon Jackson

Here is a great place to grab your starting quarterback. Without the FLEX position, I recommend grabbing one of the top-six quarterbacks this year but in the case of a 14-team FLEX league, it makes way more sense to wait on the position. The other reason to wait is that Schaub could surprise with a huge season in Houston this year. He has been forgotten a little this year due to an up and down 2007 campaign but he is in a very strong offensive system. Jackson will be a backup on the Packers this season but he may see plenty of playing time and is worth a flyer here in the 9th round. Really it makes sense here to take the best player remaining on your list regardless of whether he is a RB, WR or TE.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this:

QB Matt Schaub

RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Laurence Maroney
RB Julius Jones
RB Brandon Jackson

WR Braylon Edwards
WR Laveranues Coles
WR Hines Ward
WR Nate Burleson

The strength of this team is clearly the receiver position. Four players are capable of putting up nice numbers in any given week will be the foundation of this team. The running back position isn't flashy, but I have three starters that should provide good fantasy points week to week. All in all this is a nice foundation to build upon.

Rounds 10-13: TE Alge Crumpler / QB Jake Delhomme / TE Greg Olsen / DEF Seattle

With four running back and four receivers already on the team, this stretch is about securing good tight end talent, a solid backup quarterback and a good starting defense. I manage to get two potential top-ten tight ends (and one can fill in at the FLEX position in a pinch, something that is often overlooked in FLEX leagues), a good backup quarterback and a strong team defense.

Rounds 14-18: WR Steve Smith / DEF Denver / K Jeff Reed / RB Tim Hightower / WR Limas Sweed

I believe WR Steve Smith is capable of big things and he is worth a shot in the latter part of your draft. You should always attempt to land the players you believe have upside in the latter stages of your draft. Denver and Seattle slot together very well (I know this thanks to Chase's Team Defense by committee article) and I am pleased to land them for good value. I get a strong kicker in round sixteen and two interesting prospects to end the draft. Sweed will provide security in case Hines Ward gets hit with the injury bug.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #9)

QB Matt Schaub
QB Jake Delhomme

RB Marshawn Lynch
RB Laurence Maroney
RB Julius Jones
RB Brandon Jackson
RB Tim Hightower

WR Braylon Edwards
WR Laveranues Coles
WR Hines Ward
WR Nate Burleson
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Limas Sweed

TE Alge Crumpler
TE Greg Olsen

K Jeff Reed

DEF Seattle
DEF Denver

Final thoughts on this roster

There is some concern at my running back position but the rest of the team looks pretty strong. If Brandon Jackson and Tim Hightower do not earn significant playing time my depth at the running back position is fairly weak. The running back position dries up quickly but on the bright side, I have three starting running backs that should see plenty of touches on a day-by-day basis. My receiver and tight end core is very strong and will carry my team.

Last thoughts on the #9 slot in a 14-team league

Fourteen team leagues have their challenges. It is very difficult to secure enough talent at all the positions to have no weaknesses after the draft. The key to drafting 9th this season in a fourteen team FLEX league is to have at least four running backs and four receivers on your team by the end of round nine. The tight end position can wait until round ten and beyond and you should only consider a quarterback before round eight if exceptional value is present. The 9th slot is tricky but can pay dividends with patient drafting. Remember that the only time you should consider anything other than RB with that first pick in this position is if Randy Moss remains on the board. Then I would take him and even possibly begin the draft WR/WR, trying for a 'stud-WR' approach to success.

Have fun and happy drafting!