Draft Slot Study - From the #14 Position In a 14-team League

  Posted 8/21 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at many of the draft positions in a 14-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Note: I have received many e-mails thanking me for these articles. Thank you for those kind words and I hope you continue to enjoy the series. I will take a look at a few of the slots now in a fourteen team league. The obvious challenge of a 14-team league is that all positions dry up faster than in a 12-team league, meaning you need to have a good idea of when to pull the trigger at each position to get a strong, well-rounded team.

If you would like to see special rules as a part of this series, drop me a line at smith@footballguys.com and I'll see what I can do.

This current series of articles will feature the 1st, 4th, 9th, 11th and 14th draft positions. I cannot complete all fourteen draft slots within a useful time so I have hand picked several of the more interesting positions to draft from this season. Hopefully these will help you to dominate your league. Any questions or comments please get in touch.

New starting lineup rules for the 14-team league study (added in FLEX player).

Based on...

• 14-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF
• Scoring is as follows:
  • 1 pt every 25 passing yards
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
  • -1 pt per interception thrown
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
  • 1 pt per receptions
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
  • 1 pt per sack
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting 14th overall (14-team league)

The 14th overall pick isn't a terrible place to draft from this season but there certainly is a long stretch between picks. It also doesn't hold a candle to the picks at the top of the draft. It isn't always easy to gauge which direction the draft will go between the back-to-back picks and if you are incorrect with your assessment, it could cost you valuable depth.

The nice thing here is you have the opportunity to take this draft in tons of different routes. A RB/RB start will land you a very strong duo at running back such as Clinton Portis and Maurice Jones-Drew. You also have the ability to begin the draft WR/WR and land two very strong receiving options. Finally you could pick up a Tom Brady with your first pick, securing lots of fantasy points for your squad. However in a FLEX league, I would target only running backs and receivers through the first several rounds of the draft unless huge value is present at quarterback.

Just be aware, drafting this late in the first round, you are likely not going to have a team of stars if you start the draft with a running back. At least 10 of the running backs will be off the board when your pick arrives. Selecting two receivers may be an option here but you can also land a strong backfield with this slot as I'll illustrate below.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds and if you are in FLEX league in which you can start four receivers, there is nothing wrong with going WR/WR to begin your draft.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Michael Turner
   RB Selvin Young
   WR Reggie Wayne
   WR Larry Fitzgerald
   WR Santana Moss
   WR Nate Burleson
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this situation, it may make sense to load up on the running back position, putting pressure on the other owners in the 3rd and 4th rounds to secure running back talent. That should allow good receivers to drop to your next two picks.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Clinton Portis
   RB Maurice Jones-Drew
   RB Thomas Jones
   WR Laveranues Coles
   WR Donald Driver
   WR Santana Moss

Positives of the draft slot

• Can take the draft in many different directions...
  • RB/RB
  • RB/WR
  • WR/RB
  • WR/RB
  • QB/WR
  • QB/RB

  are all distinct possibilities depending on how the draft unfolds. I doubt I would ever take a quarterback here in a FLEX league but it is Brady after all and an argument can be made to land him on the team.

• Get the first 2nd round pick which helps to build a strong foundation

Negatives of the draft slot

1. There is little chance you will land the elite running backs.
2. Still playing catch-up with the teams at the top of the board.
3. Teams drafting after you in round one get an earlier round two pick in which there are still elite players on the board.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #4 Slot (14-team league)

Preamble

It is very tempting to start this draft WR/WR. I almost feel like doing two studies with this pick to showcase how going WR/WR can be just as effective as RB/WR or RB/RB here. Due to time restraints however I'll just touch on what the foundation of the team would look if I had indeed started with a stud WR approach…

QB Matt Schaub

RB Michael Turner
RB Selvin Young
RB Chris Johnson

WR Terrell Owens
WR Larry Fitzgerald
WR Santana Moss
WR Anthony Gonzalez

This is a very interesting team above. The running back stable is shaky at best but there is potential for any or all of those three players to greatly exceed their draft positions which would make this an incredible tough team. The receiving quartet is very strong and perhaps the finest in the league. This squad has enough strength at receiver to make a serious run at the title this season.

Well that's enough rambling from me. Let's get down to business. Here are my 18 picks.

Breaking down the mock draft from Draft Slot #14 (14-team league)

Round 1: RB Clinton Portis

If Randy Moss / Reggie Wayne make it to the 14th overall pick, I think I would have to take either of those guys over Clinton Portis. However Portis is a strong running back that has the talent to slip into the top-five if everything shakes out right.

Rounds 2/3: RB Maurice Jones-Drew / WR Laveranues Coles

I take my 1st receiver in round three. Coles is the 18th receiver taken off the draft board but he has really nice potential with Brett Favre now starting under center.

Rounds 4/5: RB Thomas Jones / WR Donald Driver

I'm very happy to add a third running back to the mix here. I have three running backs I can start each week capable of 20+ touches per game. That in combination with my WR1 Coles makes this a very nice beginning to the squad. I add Donald Driver in as my receiver with my 5th round pick and in a PPR FLEX league he is a very strong WR2 in fantasy football.

Rounds 6/7: WR Santana Moss / QB Matt Schaub

I consider ignoring the QB position here but I like Schaub too much in 2008 to pass on him here. He will have a very nice season. Santana Moss may never again achieve the success he had in 2005 when he finished as the 3rd best fantasy receiver. He may not do that but he does have the talent for a jump back into the top-12 if he can stay healthy. He's certainly an interesting WR3 starter.

Rounds 8/9: WR Sidney Rice / TE L.J. Smith

Rice is an interesting player this season. He is still in the developmental stage but he has incredible athletic ability. Landing a strong starting tight end in round nine is a major victory for my team.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this:

QB Matt Schaub

RB Clinton Portis
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Thomas Jones

WR Laveranues Colts
WR Donald Driver
WR Santana Moss
WR Sidney Rice

TE L.J. Smith

I only have three running backs on the team after nine rounds but they are all starters, experienced and have the potential of 20+ carries per game. That is all you can really ask from your offense. My receiving core is not flashy but the starting three have tons of experience and past fantasy success. Finally I secured a very good starting quarterback and tight end.

Rounds 10-13: QB Jason Campbell / DEF Seattle / RB Ladell Betts / TE Kevin Boss

I didn't see a must-grab player in round ten so I go ahead and secure my quarterback spot here with the addition of Jason Campbell. He is a talented young passes with the skills to elevate his play. Next I took the first have of what I hope is my defensive combination of Seattle and Denver. I know those two teams slot together well thank so Chase's Team Defense by committee article. I am happy to add Ladell Betts to my squad. He is the backup in Washington and he provides me some needed depth if something were to occur with Portis. Handcuffs can be very useful in the right situation and Betts is the correct pick. Kevin Boss will at least be a serviceable backup on my team but he may be able to start at the FLEX position as well in a pinch.

Rounds 14-18: WR Steve Smith / WR Michael Clayton / DEF Denver / RB Justin Forsett / K Mike Nugent

I manage to add two young receivers here with upside in Clayton and Smith. Both could emerge in the right situation in 2008. If one or both don't turn out, they become waiver wire fodder in the first few weeks. Finally I do add my team defense, my starting kicker and an interesting rookie prospect at running back.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #14)

QB Matt Schaub
QB Jason Campbell

RB Clinton Portis
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
RB Thomas Jones
RB Ladell Bates
RB Justin Forsett

WR Laveranues Colts
WR Donald Driver
WR Santana Moss
WR Sidney Rice
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Michael Clayton

TE L.J. Smith
TE Kevin Boss

K Mike Nugent

DEF Seattle
DEF Denver

Final thoughts on this roster

While not easy to watch the top thirteen players get selected before your team arrives, with smart decisions you will be able to make up the curve at the 14th position. My trio of running backs is very strong which helps to mask the question marks in the 4th and 5th running back slot. I love my receiving core but there are questions within it such as Michael Clayton attempting to reestablish himself as a legitimate fantasy weapon. I love my quarterback, kicking and team defense positions and believe that team can compete for the title.

Last thoughts on the #4 slot in a 14-team league

Fourteen team leagues have their challenges and drafting at the tail end of the first round is full of difficult decisions. It is tough to secure enough talent at all the positions to have no weaknesses after the draft. The key to drafting last in a serpentine fourteen team FLEX league is to have plenty of running backs and receivers on your team by the end of round nine. The tight end position can wait until round eight and beyond and you should only consider a quarterback before round seven if exceptional value is present. This slot is tricky but can pay dividends with patient drafting. Remember that the only time you should consider anything other than RB with that first pick in this position is if one of the elite few receivers remain on the board. Then I would take one and possible two of these receivers to jump start the draft. Whether you start RB/RB, RB/WR or even WR,WR you'll need to stay flexible and not panic to have the best possible draft.

Have fun and happy drafting!