Draft Slot Study - From the #9 Position In a 14-team League

  Posted 8/20 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 14-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Note: I have received many e-mails thanking me for these articles. Thank you for those kind words and I hope you continue to enjoy the series. I will take a look at a few of the slots now in a fourteen team league. The obvious challenge of a 14-team league is that all positions dry up faster than in a 12-team league, meaning you need to have a good idea of when to pull the trigger at each position to get a strong, well-rounded team.

If you would like to see special rules as a part of this series, drop me a line at smith@footballguys.com and I'll see what I can do.

This current series of articles will feature the 1st, 4th, 9th, 11th and 14th draft positions. I cannot complete all fourteen draft slots within a useful time so I have hand picked several of the more interesting positions to draft from this season. Hopefully these will help you to dominate your league. Any questions or comments please get in touch.

New starting lineup rules for the 14-team league study (added in FLEX player).

Based on...

• 14-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF
• Scoring is as follows:
  • 1 pt every 25 passing yards
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
  • -1 pt per interception thrown
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
  • 1 pt per receptions
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
  • 1 pt per sack
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting 11th overall (14-team league)

The 11th position in a fourteen team FLEX league makes for a tough decision this year. It is very tempting, depending on who is available at #11, to begin the draft WR/WR/WR and build the best receiving corps in the league. You will be able to find serviceable running back talent in rounds four through six. However the strategy does have its risks if the running back position dries up as is possible in a FLEX league. The best bet is to start the draft with a running back UNLESS Randy Moss is available with the 1st pick. If he is, I very likely will begin the draft with a Moss/Braylon Edwards (or similar WR), and go from there. Having the ability to start 4 receivers each week should not be overlooked.

Just as attractive though is to build a strong RB corps and start three at the position each week. Running backs usually have a lot more touches than receivers and have more consistency week-to-week. Let the draft unfold and alter your strategy as you go. That is the way to build the best possible team.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds and if you are in FLEX league in which you can start four receivers, there is nothing wrong with going WR/WR to begin your draft.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Edgerrin James
   RB Thomas Jones
   WR Randy Moss
   WR Larry Fitzgerald
   WR Marvin Harrison
   WR Nate Burleson
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this situation, it may make sense to load up on the running back position, putting pressure on the other owners in the 3rd and 4th rounds to secure running back talent. That should allow good receivers to drop to your next two picks.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Larry Johnson
   RB Michael Turner
   RB Thomas Jones
   WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh
   WR Marvin Harrison
   WR Santana Moss

Positives of the draft slot

• Can take the draft in many different directions...
  • RB/RB
  • RB/WR
  • WR/RB
  • WR/RB
  • QB/WR
  • QB/RB

  are all distinct possibilities depending on how the draft unfolds. I doubt I would ever take a quarterback here in a FLEX league but it is Brady after all and an argument can be made to land him on the team.

• Get an early 2nd round pick which helps to build a strong foundation

Negatives of the draft slot

• There is a decent chance you will miss out on the elite running backs.
• Still playing catch-up with the teams at the top of the board.
• Teams drafting after you in round one get an earlier round two pick in which there are still elite players on the board.

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #11 Slot (14-team league)

Preamble

It is very tempting to start this draft WR/WR. I almost feel like doing two studies with this pick to showcase how going WR/WR can be just as effective as RB/WR or RB/RB here. Due to time restraints however I'll just touch on what the foundation of the team would look if I had indeed started with a stud WR approach…

RB Thomas Jones
RB Rudi Johnson
RB Julius Jones
WR Reggie Wayne
WR Braylon Edwards
WR Santonio Holmes
WR Hines Ward

That is a very interesting team above. You would need some luck to land those three running backs but the incredible strength at receiver would mean you can afford to have a Thomas Jones / Julius Jones combination as your starting running back combination. The brother duo would get the job done for your team but the risk would be the running back position drying up so you have marginal talent at the position. May be worth a risk and certainly so if Randy Moss is still available with the 11th pick.

As it is, the safest play here is to take Clinton Portis who has the ability to creep into the top-five at the position. He is a strong 11th pick and following it up with Braylon Edwards and Michael Turner is a nice beginning to the draft.

Well that's enough rambling from me. Let's get down to business. Here are my 18 picks.

Breaking down the mock draft from Draft Slot #11 (14-team league)

Round 1: RB Clinton Portis

As I broke down above, it is very tempting to being this draft with WR Reggie Wayne instead of RB Clinton Portis. However having the ability to start three running backs in any given week makes it an easier pick here to begin with the running back position. Running backs are usually a little more consistent week-to-week with 20+ touches per game and I gladly begin my team with Portis.

Rounds 2/3: WR Braylon Edwards / RB Michael Turner

It is going to be very difficult not to select a receiver in round two unless a running back drops further than expected. There still are top receivers on the board against 2nd-tier running backs which makes the 2nd round pick quite easy. There are a lot of picks to wait on before the 3rd round pick arrives so don't plan ahead. Simply sit back, record the picks and take the best available player with the 3rd round pick. In this case, there are interesting running back prospects here and Turner is a very strong 3rd round pick.

Rounds 4/5: RB Thomas Jones / WR Hines Ward

I'm very happy to add a third running back to the mix here. I have three running backs I can start each week capable of 20+ touches per game. That in combination with my WR1 Edwards makes this a very nice beginning to the squad. I add Hines Ward in as my receiver with my 5th round pick and in a PPR FLEX league, he is a very strong WR2 in fantasy football.

Rounds 6/7: WR Santana Moss / RB Julius Jones

I continue to ignore the QB and TE position in these two rounds, instead adding in a strong WR3 with top-ten potential if he can rediscover his form and a 4th running back who may touch the ball 20+ times per game and will be one heck of a FLEX option at times throughout the season. With four running backs and 3 receivers already on the roster, I can now look at securing my QB and TE starter in the rounds ahead.

Rounds 8/9: QB Matt Schaub / TE Alge Crumpler

Here is a great place to grab your starting quarterback. Without the FLEX position, I recommend grabbing one of the top-six quarterbacks this year but in the case of a 14-team FLEX league, it makes way more sense to wait on the position. The other reason to wait is that Schaub could surprise with a huge season in Houston this year. He has been forgotten a little this year due to an up and down 2007 campaign but he is in a very strong offensive system. I consider adding another running back or tight end with the 9th round pick but having Alge Crumpler available with the 123rd pick is too good to pass on. He may be the top receiver in Tennessee this season.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this:

QB Matt Schaub

RB Clinton Portis
RB Michael Turner
RB Thomas Jones
RB Julius Jones

WR Braylon Edwards
WR Hines Ward
WR Santana Moss

TE Alge Crumpler

In this study, the obvious strength of this team is at the running back position with four starters capable of 20+ touches per game. My trio at receiver is strong but with no backup options through nine rounds, I'll have my work cut out in the rounds ahead. I love having Crumpler on my team with a 9th round or later pick and my quarterback has plenty of upside for the upcoming season.

Rounds 10-13: WR Laurent Robinson / QB Brett Favre / DEF Seattle / WR Steve Smith

I manage to add two young receivers in these four rounds that have tons of upside and could become huge value picks this year. I think both are interesting prospects and I love to land them on my fantasy teams. Waiting until round eight to select a quarterback means I attempt to secure a 2nd solid player to form a good tandem. If Betts hadn't been scooped on me a few spots before he would be my pick here to secure RB1 points. However he went off the board a few picks before mine and if you wait too long to pickup the 2nd quarterback, you may be stuck with a quarterback who has serious question marks this season. I pull the trigger on Favre who should put up Favre type numbers in 2008, albeit with a new team. I also manage to secure the first half of my defensive combo I'll be targeting this season (Seahawks/Denver).

Rounds 14-18: TE Greg Olsen / DEF Denver / K Jeff Reed / RB Justin Forsett / WR Limas Sweed

Greg Olsen is a great player to pick up in the latter stages of a FLEX league. Not only does he provide good depth behind Crumpler, he also has plenty of upside and could start as a FLEX option in a pinch as well. Many owners forget that tight ends can make for serviceable FLEX options and especially so in PPR leagues. I grab the 2nd half of my defense combo and my starting kicker in the 15th and 16th round before adding two rookies to flesh out my roster. If these two players perform well, I have talented rookies that are backing up starters on my roster (Hines Ward and Julius Jones). If they don't pan out, they will be my waiver wire fodder after the first couple of games.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #11)

QB Matt Schaub
QB Brett Favre

RB Clinton Portis
RB Michael Turner
RB Thomas Jones
RB Julius Jones
RB Justin Forsett

WR Braylon Edwards
WR Hines Ward
WR Santana Moss
WR Laurent Robinson
WR Steve Smith (NYG)
WR Limas Sweed

TE Alge Crumpler
TE Greg Olsen

K Jeff Reed

DEF Seattle
DEF Denver

Final thoughts on this roster

This has been a pretty strong draft. I have four strong running back options to choose from each week and that should be the strength of my team. My quarterback position is remarkably strong considering a waited until round eight to select my first. I have three very good receiving options to start each week but do have some question marks in behind those three players. Is the young trio of receivers I have as my WR4 through WR6 can do well, this squad will be difficult to knock off. I have two strong tight ends, a good kicker and a nice defensive duo. I am pleased with my team after the draft and feel I will compete for the championship with this group. My only regret is that RB Ladell Betts didn't fall a few more picks as I would have selected him in the 11th round ahead of Brett Favre, securing points at my RB1 spot. It wasn't meant to be however and Favre is a nice consolation prize.

Last thoughts on the #11 slot in a 14-team league

Fourteen team leagues have their challenges. It is very difficult to secure enough talent at all the positions to have no weaknesses after the draft. The key to drafting 11th this season in a fourteen team FLEX league is to have at least four running backs and four receivers on your team by the end of round nine. The tight end position can wait until round nine and beyond and you should only consider a quarterback before round eight if exceptional value is present. This slot is tricky but can pay dividends with patient drafting. Remember that the only time you should consider anything other than RB with that first pick in this position is if Randy Moss remains on the board. Then I would take him and even possibly begin the draft WR/WR/WR, trying for a 'stud-WR' approach to success. I can also see an argument being made for Reggie Wayne with the 11th pick but in my opinion the better option is to take somebody like RB Clinton Portis who gives you a nice cornerstone at running back.

Have fun and happy drafting!