Draft Slot Study - From the #1 Position In a 14-team League

  Posted 8/11 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Note: I have received many e-mails thanking me for these articles. Thank you for those kind words and I hope you continue to enjoy the series. I will take a look at a few of the slots now in a fourteen team league. The obvious challenge of a 14-team league is that all positions dry up faster than in a 12-team league, meaning you need to have a good idea of when to pull the trigger at each position to get a strong, well-rounded team.

If you would like to see special rules as a part of this series, drop me a line at smith@footballguys.com and I'll see what I can do.

New starting lineup rules for the 14-team league study (added in FLEX player).

Based on...

• 14-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX, 1 K and 1 DEF
• Scoring is as follows:
  • 1 pt every 25 passing yards
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
  • -1 pt per interception thrown
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
  • 1 pt per receptions
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
  • 1 pt per sack
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting 1st overall (14-team league)

There are certainly similarities between drafting 1st in a twelve-team league and 1st in a fourteen-team league. It is still one of the best slots in which to build a championship squad and you still want to draft solely on value, selecting whatever position looks the strongest when your pick arrives. With 28 players now between the back-to-back picks, it is certainly possible that talent will dry up at a position in between your picks but there is nothing really you can do about that. In the 12-team league without a FLEX position, I recommended selected a top-six quarterback within the first five rounds. In a fourteen-team league that uses a FLEX position, it is a better strategy to ignore the quarterback position until later, instead loading up on RB and WR throughout the first 6+ rounds.

There are many unique paths an owner can take with his draft but it always begins with a top running back first and foremost

• Stud RB approach
• Stud WR approach - WR / WR in the 2nd and 3rd rounds
• Stud QB approach - If Manning / Brees is there with 24th pick, can look at starting draft RB/QB/WR

All four of those options have risks and all four have their rewards. It is up to the direction of your draft to determine which path to take. The path I believe offers the best chance of success is RB/WR/WR if good receivers are there at #24 and #25. It appears to be the top-level receiver talent dries up quicker this season and good running back depth allows for players to be picked up in round four / five.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens this owner may decide to forgo the running back position in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation at the other spots. In this type of league, it would be great decision to begin the draft RB/WR/WR. If you do start your draft like this in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent unless exceptional value is there at your pick.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB LaDainian Tomlinson
   RB Rudi Johnson
   RB Julius Jones
   WR Andre Johnson
   WR Marques Colston
   WR Laveranues Coles
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this situation, it may make sense to load up on the running back position, putting pressure on the other owners in the 3rd and 4th rounds to secure running back talent. That should allow good receivers to drop to your next two picks.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB LaDainian Tomlinson
   RB Ronnie Brown
   RB Ryan Grant
   WR Greg Jennings
   WR Laveranues Coles
   WR Nate Burleson

Looking at the above two scenarios, I believe going RB/WR/WR is the ideal way to begin a draft from the 1st slot. However this only makes sense if top-receiver talent slips to your picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Just let the draft unfold and select the best two available players.

Positives of the draft slot

1. Starting a draft with Tomlinson is always a jump up on the competition
2. Getting three of the top-29 picks is a wonderful way to build a great foundation
3. Having back-to-back picks can help steer the direction of the draft, putting pressure on other owners.
4. Can take the draft in a number of different directions, including waiting on the RB position thanks to securing the talents of Tomlinson

Negatives of the draft slot

1. Tons of picks to wait on in between your own back-to-back picks
2. Lots of players you like will fall off the board in between picks

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #1 Slot (14-team league)

Preamble

I often enjoy drafting at the turn in fantasy football. You can dictate the direction of the draft with two shrewd moves and you don't have to gauge what the owners are doing directly after you prior to your next pick. After selecting two players, you just sit back and let the draft unfold as it will. Value will always be there so don't fall in love with a player, take what falls to your slot and you'll be in great shape. Anytime you get to start a draft with the top running back in fantasy football you are off to a great start. With strong drafting early on, your foundation will be clearly the best in the league. Don't assume anything in the first rounds. Let the draft unfold and simply take the best two players available.

Well that's enough rambling from me. Let's get down to business. Here are my 18 picks.

Breaking down the mock draft from Draft Slot #1 (14-team league)

Round 1: RB LaDainian Tomlinson

Tomlinson is the best player in fantasy football. Enough said.

Rounds 2/3: WR Andre Johnson / WR Marques Colston

This is a great way to begin your draft. Sure your RB2 will be weaker than many of the other teams in the league but Johnson and Colston have a realistic chance to catch 100 passes each this season and they'll team with Tomlinson to add tons of production in a PPR league. Sure it is tempting to add a running back here but veteran RB Edgerrin James and rookie RB Darren McFadden just don't have the same attraction of a strong receiving duo. Going WR/WR here though means it is critical to add a running back at the next turn.

Rounds 4/5: RB Rudi Johnson / WR Laveranues Coles

If Rudi Johnson plays as poorly as last season, this is a terrible pick. If he returns to a similar production in the prior years, he is a great RB2 in fantasy football and an excellent selection with the 56th pick. Next I do consider selecting a 3rd running back here with Fred Taylor available but having Coles as my WR3 in an offense now powered by Brett Favre is too attractive to pass on. Coles may approach 100 receptions as well with Favre under center and he makes my starting trio at receiver incredible tough.

Rounds 6/7: RB Julius Jones / WR Derrick Mason

Having ignored landing a top-six quarterback in a FLEX position league, I decide to skip selecting a quarterback here with these two picks as well. If you aren't going to get one of those top-six guys, there is no real reason to reach for another quarterback as there is a large number of similar quarterbacks to choose from in the upcoming rounds. Instead I scoop up my RB3 and a starting running back in Julius Jones and a good WR4 in Derrick Mason. These two guys will make wonderful FLEX players this season.

Rounds 8/9: RB Brandon Jackson / QB Jake Delhomme

The running back position is drying up and I figure one of my sleepers, Brandon Jackson may not be available with my next set of picks. I decide to take him here as an interesting prospect this season. Finally I select my starting quarterback and Jake Delhomme, well not flashy should get the job done under center for my fantasy team.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this:

QB Jake Delhomme

RB LaDainian Tomlinson
RB Rudi Johnson
RB Julius Jones
RB Brandon Jackson

WR Andre Johnson
WR Marques Colston
WR Laveranues Coles
WR Derrick Mason

This is one heck of a beginning in a fourteen team FLEX league. I have good depth at running back and receiver and a capable quarterback in Delhomme. My receiver foursome is so strong that I can afford to ignore the position for awhile unless I see strong value.

Rounds 10-13: TE Greg Olsen / RB Ray Rice / QB Matt Leinart / DEF Seattle

I need a starting tight end and waste no time picking Greg Olsen who has tons of upside on a Bears team that isn't blessed with much talent at receiver. Olsen may see a ton of targets in 2008. RB Ray Rice is an interesting rookie running back and the Ravens organization loves this guy. He is the type of 'high-risk, high-reward' player that can pay dividends in the mid-rounds. Landing a good backup quarterback here is important, having waited so long on my starter and Leinart is here for the plucking. He does carry some risk with Kurt Warner in behind him and I may try to scoop up Warner later on if he is available. Finally I take my first TEAM DEFENSE in the Seattle Seahawks.

Rounds 14-18: DEF Green Bay / TE Kevin Boss / K Jeff Reed / QB Kurt Warner / WR James Hardy

Here is where you fill out the roster. I add my 2nd defense, my 2nd tight end and my starting kicker in these rounds. I am also fortunate to have QB Kurt Warner still available and he combines with Leinart to give me strong quarterback depth. Finally I add a 5th receiver in James Hardy that should emerge as the starting receiver opposite of Lee Evans in Buffalo this season.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #1)

QB Jake Delhomme
QB Matt Leinart
QB Kurt Warner

RB LaDainian Tomlinson
RB Rudi Johnson
RB Julius Jones
RB Brandon Jackson
RB Ray Rice

WR Andre Johnson
WR Marques Colston
WR Laveranues Coles
WR Derrick Mason
WR James Hardy

TE Greg Olsen
TE Kevin Boss

K Jeff Reed

DEF Seattle
DEF Green Bay

Final thoughts on this roster

Looking at my squad top to bottom, I think this is a tremendous team. I have strong depth at every position other than kicker in which I always draft just one player. I rarely use three picks on the quarterback spot but having both Leinart and Warner on the roster give tremendous durability to my quarterback stable. I have three veteran running backs that have produced in the past and two young players that could emerge throughout the season. My top four receivers are extremely strong which allowed me to ignore the position until the final round of the draft. My two tight ends are young and inexperienced but both may be called upon to produce a great deal this season. Finally as I always preach, I fill it is important in the late-middle rounds to grab two defenses capable of strong efforts throughout the season. A few points will often decide a game and too often, owners ignore this position until there is little production left on the table.

Last thoughts on the #1 slot in a 14-team league

Everybody knows that 1st overall is a great slot to begin a draft from. As I always state, 'be flexible and allow the draft to unfold without preconceived notions'. No matter which direction the draft takes, if you are patient and willing to take your own path throughout the draft, you will have a great team when the final pick is cast. Look for value, try to build a strong squad with no obvious weaknesses and you'll certainly be in title contention in 2008. Remember in a league that offers a FLEX position at RB/WR and TE to not reach for a starting quarterback unless you can land one with nice value. I love the top-six quarterback this season but it is more important in the first seven rounds to build strength at RB and WR with the FLEX rules in place.

Have fun and happy drafting!