Draft Slot Study - From the #12 Position

  Posted 8/8 by Chris Smith, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Every season there is much discussion on the positives and the negatives for each of the draft slots in a fantasy football league. While I believe it is possible to win a league no matter where you draft from, it is obvious to the veteran fantasy owner that there is some advantage to drafting in certain positions as opposed to others. This series of articles will take an in-depth look at each of the twelve draft positions in a 12-team, redraft fantasy football league and outline the positives and negatives of each slot In addition each separate article will showcase a mock draft compiled using the Draft Dominator.

Note: I have received many e-mails thanking me for these articles. Thank you for those kind words. Also I have received a couple that believed the draft was too fortunate (especially the #3 draft slot) and unrealistic. I appreciate your e-mails as well. Let me assure you that these mock drafts are 100% legitimate. I simply plug in the scoring rules for the league and draft for the one team with the Draft Dominator (the other 11 owners are automatic using the 'my draft' feature). Just like in real drafts however, there are times players fall further than anticipated and knowing when to scoop up those players is a key component of successful drafting. Thanks again for the comments and I hope you continue to enjoy the series.

If you would like to see special rules as a part of this series, drop me a line at smith@footballguys.com and I'll see what I can do.

I have decided to keep the scoring rules the same until I get to the 12th pick and then I'll switch to different criteria in the next set of studies to keep the series.

Based on...

• 12-team redraft league / 18-round fantasy draft
• Must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE
• Scoring is as follows:
  • 1 pt every 25 passing yards
  • 1 pt every 10 rushing yards
  • 4 pts per passing touchdown
  • -1 pt per interception thrown
  • 6 pts per rushing / receiving touchdown
  • 1 pt per receptions
  • 3 pts per field goal / 1 pt per extra point
  • 2 pts per interception, fumble recovery and safety
  • 1 pt per sack
  • 6 pts per defensive touchdown

This study is performed using the mock draft function within our own Draft Dominator software. The program gives you the ability to draft for one team and have the other teams taken over by computer control using different ADP lists. For the purpose of this study, I will use David Dodds' projections found within the Dominator.

The mock draft ability of the Dominator is a nice way to prepare for your fantasy draft. Running the same draft several times will help you to anticipate all possible scenarios when your own draft arrives. Check it out today.

Drafting twelfth overall

Finally we are onto the final slot of the draft board. Drafting last in the first round in a serpentine draft always has its pros and cons and this year is no different. If you look at it with a 'the glass is half-empty' mindset, it is a difficult place to draft from as you get the 12th best player available in round one. Eleven other owners had their choice ahead of you with puts an owner in a bind. However if you look at it with a 'the glass half-full' mindset, you'll realize you get two of the top thirteen players available which isn't a terrible way to begin a draft. You have the luxury of selecting back-to-back players without having to look behind you trying to determine which direction the draft will Take. With 24 picks between selections, you are best suited to take the best two players on your draft board and sit back allowing the draft to unfold. It is very challenging to determine the direction a draft will take from this slot.

There are many unique paths an owner can take with this pick.

• Stud RB approach - RB / RB in the first two rounds. The RB1 will be weaker than other teams in the league but the dual should be strong.
• Stud WR approach - WR / WR in the first two rounds. Always a risky approach but one that can pay dividends if you can land interesting RB prospects in rounds three through six.
• Stud QB approach - If Brady is there with the 12th pick, he is the player you want
• Best Two players - A combination of RB / WR; QB / RB or QB / WR

All four of those options have their risks and all four have their rewards. It is up to the direction of your draft to determine which path to take.

Possible strategies to incorporate into your draft

The key here is to make sure you have three strong players in the first three rounds regardless of position. You'll be chasing the owners at the top of the draft board throughout the draft unless you are willing to take the best available player, regardless of position. If that means you go WR, WR, WR or WR WR QB or even WR WR TE in the first three rounds, do it and don't look back. It isn't always advisable to take risks in your draft early on but when you are in what I consider to be one of the most challenging draft slots of 2008, you better be prepared to lose the vanilla strategy and go for broke.

Examples

1. League that goes RB heavy in first two rounds: Many leagues see a ton of running backs go off the board in the first two rounds. If that happens this owner may decide to forgo the running back position in the first few picks and instead look at building a deep, strong foundation at the other spots. In this type of league, it would be a high-risk / high-reward move to start your squad: QB, WR, WR or even QB, WR, TE. If you do start your draft like this in the first three picks, it is important to target the running back position with your 4th and 5th round picks to secure talent unless exceptional value is there at your pick.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Brandon Jacobs
   RB Laurence Maroney
   RB Rudi Johnson
   WR Randy Moss
   WR Reggie Wayne
   WR Greg Jennings
   
   
2. League that has more flexibility in first two rounds: In some leagues fellow owners simply take the best available player in the first two rounds. In this case, many receivers and several quarterbacks may be off the board when the 3rd and 4th round picks come around. In this case you should simply take the best two players still on the board, no matter if that player is a running back, receiver or quarterback. In a league like this you may start RB, RB, TE / RB, RB, RB /RB, WR, WR / RB / QB or many other possible combinations. Most of the time in this draft position, I envision starting the team RB/RB but another strong option is RB/WR.
   
   Possible squad through six rounds
   RB Joseph Addai
   RB Marion Barber III
   RB Rudi Johnson
   WR Calvin Johnson
   WR Jerricho Cotchery
   WR Hines Ward

Looking at the above two scenarios, I believe going RB/WR or even WR/WR with the first two picks is the way to begin the draft from the 10th slot. Going RB/RB leaves you weak at WR1 and WR2 and allows the teams at the top of the draft to get huge value, making it extremely difficult to keep up. I still believe landing a top-six QB is huge this year so if you have to overpay a little to land one by round four it may pay dividends for your team.

Positives of the draft slot

1. Back-to-back picks at end of round allows you to dictate which direction the draft will take
2. Get the luxury of choosing multiple-strategic paths

Negatives of the draft slot

1. More difficult to determine which direction the draft will take on the back side of the even rounds. With 22 picks between your own, it can be disastrous if you guess wrong.
2. The owners drafting 1st through 8th will have the elite running back talent
3. Almost damned if you do and damned if you don't here. If you go RB/RB you allow WR talent to slip. If you go WR with one or both picks, you may find yourself with Larry Csonka at running back (OK, perhaps not that bad as the draft will show).

Part One: The Mock Draft for the #12 Slot

Preamble

I often enjoy drafting at the turn in fantasy football. You can dictate the direction of the draft with two shrewd moves and you don't have to gauge what the owners are doing directly after you prior to your next pick. After selecting two players, you just sit back and let the draft unfold as it will. Value will always be there so don't fall in love with a player, take what falls to your slot and you'll be in great shape.

What I'm going to do in this article though is start the draft WR/WR and see where that takes us at the end of the day. It's more risky than other strategies but when done well, without panic or reaching for players, you will emerge with an interesting team capable of big things in 2008.

Well that's enough rambling from me. Let's get down to business. Here are my 18 picks.

Breaking down the mock draft from Draft Slot #11

Round 1: WR Randy Moss

The best player available here in this spot is WR Randy Moss. Sure you can take a running back such as Reggie Bush or Maurice Jones-Drew but the high-risk, high-reward strategy is to try and build an advantage at a position other than running back which makes Moss the pick.

Rounds 2/3: WR Reggie Wayne / RB Brandon Jacobs

This is an interesting decision to make and your future picks will be impacted by this choice. You have a long way in between picks and you need to be sure on the direction you are taking. Don't feel like you have to speed through these two picks. Take your time and really make sure of the direction you wish to go in. I have two real choices here, RB Reggie Bush or WR Reggie Wayne and both players have their pros and cons in regards to my roster in 2008. If I start WR/WR I will almost certainly have the best receiving core in the league but one of the worst running back stables. If I go RB/WR I will have good 1st players at each position but will be chasing owners as the draft goes on who started with a better running back than mine and a similar receiver in round two. I take Wayne and start with a killer receiver duo. Jacobs is an easy 3rd round pick after beginning the draft WR/WR.

Rounds 4/5: RB Darren McFadden / WR Hines Ward

There are a couple of running backs that are intriguing here but none have the upside and potential of rookie RB Darren McFadden. He will be a RB2 on my squad with top-ten potential and is a player that can make or break a fantasy draft. Ward is a terrific WR3 in fantasy football and now it is official. I have the best receiver corps in this league. The only negative is I missed out on my top-six quarterback I like to have on my roster this year but still, this is a great start to a draft.

Rounds 6/7: RB Rudi Johnson / QB Jay Cutler

RB Rudi Johnson struggled last season but appears to be back this season and is a nice, value pick in the sixth round. QB Jay Cutler isn't an ideal choice this season in my opinion but he is the best option at quarterback at this time in the draft.

Rounds 8/9: TE Jeremy Shockey / RB Kenny Watson

I consider quite a few players here but Shockey's value is way too good to pass up. A strong tight end in the 8th round is a small victory for my squad. I also decide to solidify my RB3 position by drafting the teammate of Rudi Johnson to guarantee points at that spot. Watson may put up more fantasy points in 2008 due to his ability to catch the football and make tacklers miss in space.

At the halfway point of the draft, my team looks like this:

QB Jay Cutler (7.12)

RB Brandon Jacobs (3.12)
RB Darren McFadden (4.01)
RB Rudi Johnson (5.12)
RB Kenny Watson (9.12)

WR Randy Moss (1.12)
WR Reggie Wayne (2.01)
WR Hines Ward (5.12)

TE Jeremy Shockey (8.01)

I like this team and I enjoy drafting from this position. My receiver stable is very strong but I'll need to add backup depth shortly. I have missed out on the best running back talent but my foursome will be good enough to put up points this season. I also missed my top-six QB as I couldn't pass up my RB2 in this spot.

Rounds 10-13: RB Chris Johnson / WR D.J. Hackett / QB Matt Leinart / DEF GB

Since I ignored the running back position in the first two rounds, it makes sense to load up on the position in the middle rounds. In a PPR league, I love what Chris Johnson can do for your team. He has tons of upside to go along with his blinding speed and he helps strengthen this group. Hackett is a very nice addition to the team as a 4th and he'll fill in nicely when needed. I need a backup quarterback and Leinart has the most upside of the group remaining and I select what I believe will be a strong defense in 2008.

Rounds 14-18: TE Alge Crumpler / DEF Baltimore / WR Steve Smith (NYG) / K Jeff Reed / WR Chad Jackson

Here is where your roster rounds into form. I select my 2nd tight end who happens to be a steal at this point in the draft and defensive unit, my starting kicker and two young receivers with big possibilities in 2008.

Final Roster (Draft Slot #12)

QB Jay Cutler (7.12)
QB Matt Leinart (12.01)

RB Brandon Jacobs (3.12)
RB Darren McFadden (4.01)
RB Rudi Johnson (5.12)
RB Kenny Watson (9.12)
RB Chris Johnson (10.01)

WR Randy Moss (1.12)
WR Reggie Wayne (2.01)
WR Hines Ward (5.12)
WR D.J. Hackett (11.12)
WR Steve Smith (NYG) (16.01)
WR Chad Jackson (18.01)

TE Jeremy Shockey (8.01)
TE Alge Crumpler (14.12)

K Jeff Reed (17.12)

DEF GB (13.12)
DEF Baltimore (15.12)

Final thoughts on this roster

Looking at my squad top to bottom, I think this is a tremendous team. Drafting five running backs from round three to round ten helped to mask the weakness there after two rounds and my starting trio at receiver is deadly. I have two good, possibly great tight ends, two serviceable quarterbacks and good defenses. All in all this has the making of a team that will win a lot of games this season. Getting a Johnson/Watson combo as my RB3 will guarantee points at one running back position and McFadden has huge upside.

Last thoughts on the #12 slot

I would have no problem being slotted into the 12th draft slot this season. Don't feel pressured to begin a draft RB/RB which has been preached so often over the years. You are looking to simply build the best possible team and if that means taking a Moss/Wayne combo to start the year or a Brady/Wayne combo, don't hesitate to shake up the draft. You have a long time between picks so simply take the best two players on your board each time your pick comes up as you'll have no idea what 24 players will vanish before your next pick. The only time I'll stray from that strategy is if a position is really drying up and there is a chance of being left with bread crumbs. If that happens, you may need to pull the trigger on a player before you had hoped. Be flexible and allow the draft to unfold, plucking value each time your turn comes up and you'll be in great shape.

Have fun and happy drafting!