Week 17 Sleeper Report

  Posted 12/23 by Bob Henry, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Quarterback

Chad Pennington - MIA - Pennington's owners have a dream matchup and scenario this week. With Pennington returning to the Meadowlands against the Jets and Brett Favre, playing for a division title, the drama just couldn't get any higher or better. The Jets are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to QBs, or 254 yds, 1.4 TDs and 0.9 INTs per game. Pennington touched them up for 251 yards, 2 TDs and an INT in the season opener, but he has gotten better as the year played on.

Seneca Wallace - SEA - While I haven't heard anything this week on the status of Matt Hasselbeck, I'd be surprised if Seneca Wallace didn't get the call. He's been consistently productive in his last six games averaging around 200 yds and 1.5 TDs per game with only 1 INT. He has an excellent matchup against a Cardinals team that is allowing 231 yds, 2.3 TDs (0.6 TDs per game more than any other team) and 0.7 INTs per game. They're the #1 matchup for fantasy QBs, though to temper the enthusiasm just a bit, Hasselbeck managed only 170 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs against them in week 11. Then again, look at what Matt Cassel did to them last week in the driving snow.

Tyler Thigpen - KC - Thigpen is hardly a sleeper any more, but I just wanted to include him one more time as a tip of the hat for the strong second half of the season that he put together. Thigpen has been a top 5 fantasy QB in last month or two and he has another nice matchup to take advantage of this week against the Bengals.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Matt Schaub - HOU - The Bears are allowing a generous 250 yards and 1.3 TDs per game to opposing QBs, but they are also picking them off at a rate of 1.5 per game (NFL best). If Schaub could stay healthy for 16 games, he might have a Jay Cutler type year. Schaub has 250 or more yards in three straight games and seven of his last eight. In five of his last eight games he's scored 2 or more TDs. Opposing QBs have thrown a league-high 39 pass/game against Chicago, so look for Schaub to throw 35 to 40 passes easy. He has thrown 36, 39 and 42 in his last three games. Schaub's has thrown 10 INTs in as many games, so count on at least one, if not two or more picks this week, too.

Matt Ryan - ATL - Last week's 134 yard performance with 1 TD against the Vikings marked the first game that Matt Ryan didn't throw for at least 206 yards since week 5. The Rams are allowing 233 yards, 1.3 TDs and 0.7 INTs per game to opposing QBs and Ryan has done better against far tougher defenses than he'll face this week at home. Ryan and the Falcons offense could go out with a big bang this week and ultimately rest much of the second half unless the Rams surprise and put up a better than expected fight.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Jason Campbell - WAS - Opposing QBs are averaging 234 yards, 1.4 TDs and 0.8 INTs per game against the 49ers this year. Campbell is seeking a strong finish for a disappointing season after the Redskins appeared to be a playoff contender midseason. Campbell has been inconsistent in his first year in Jim Zorn's system, but he has also had his moments and handful of big games. Campbell needs to throw more TDs to ascend as a fantasy option, but he could do just that against the 49ers. Marc Bulger was able to come up with 227 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT against them last week. Nate Clements could lock down on Santana Moss, so look for Chris Cooley, Antwaan Randle El and Devin Thomas to get some action.

Jake Delhomme - CAR - Opponents are averaging 230 yards, 1.3 TDs and 1 INT per game against the Saints this year. Delhomme threw for 195 yards and 2 TDs against them in Carolina (week 7). Delhomme has not been very productive of late, thanks to the Panthers two-pronged running attack, but mostly just due to the emergence of DeAngelo Williams and his 20 TDs. Delhomme only threw 22 passes the last time they played, but he made it count for decent numbers. He should do it again this week as he returns home to Louisiana.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Joe Flacco - BAL - Only Matt Ryan has been more impressive as a rookie NFL QB in the past couple seasons. Flacco is doing his best Trent Dilfer to help the Ravens turn around their disappointing 2007 season into a 2008 playoff run. The Jags secondary is susceptible to big plays. Look for Flacco to target Drayton Florence which could lead to a big play for Mark Clayton. The Jags are allowing 230 yds, 1.7 TDs and 0.9 INTs per game (2nd most TDs allowed to QBs).

Other QBs to consider as desperate options or reaches in deeper leagues are Trent Edwards (Pats allowing 2nd most passing TDs), Kyle Orton (at Hou) and Marc Bulger (at Atl).

Running Back

Ryan Grant - GB - Grant is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry after averaging 5.1 ypc last year. His TDs are down from 8 to 4, too, but he has set career highs with 293 carries and 1097 yards so far. He is also one of the few RBs to face the Lions this year and not do any damage. In week two, Grant struggled running 15 times for 20 yards against the Motor City Kitties. Brandon Jackson and Kregg Lumpkin did the damage that game. This time around, Grant should be much better. Six straight RBs have produced 100 yds and 5 of them scored. In addition to Grant, DeShawn Wynn is a dark horse to consider after getting some touches on Monday night against the Bears. Wynn has another shot to show the coaches something for next year. On the other side of this game, Kevin Smith should finish his rookie season on a strong note with a solid matchup and coming off a 115 yard effort last week against the Saints.

Cedric Benson - CIN - Benson has put up two humongous games in a row and now he faces a battered Chiefs run defense that has been pummeled by opposing backs all year. They've allowed the 2nd most fantasy points and all signs point to Benson having another monster game since the Bengals continue to struggle throwing the ball. RBs are producing 190 combined yards and 1.5 TDs per game against KC. Interesting statistic: With 43 yards, Benson will top his single-season best of 678 yards in his first three seasons with the Bears. He still only has 1 TD on the year and a 3.4 ypc over the last two.

Derrick Ward - NYG - At this point in the season, Ward is exactly the kind of guy to reach for in a week 17 game. The Giants are riding high into the playoffs following last week's huge win against the Panthers. Ward had a huge game. This week, he's riding that momentum and he's running for the money, too. Ward is a free agent following the season, so he's also auditioning to be next year's Michael Turner story. Ward needs 52 yards for 1,000 on the season. He has 1318 total yards this year with 39 catches. He should get another 10+ carries and some looks as a receiver against the Vikings who will be without run-stuffing behemoth DT Pat Williams for the second week in a row.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Pierre Thomas - NO - Once again, with Reggie Bush on IR, Pierre Thomas has the Saints backfield to himself, but this week he has a tough matchup against the Panthers. If the Panthers are without Maake Kemoeatu again, then Thomas' outlook is even better. Kemoeatu missed last week's game and the Giants ran for over 300 yards against them.

Cadillac Williams & Warrick Dunn - TB - Opposing RBs that have faced the Raiders are averaging 173 total yards and 1.6 TDs per game this season. The Bucs offense has boiled down to their running game and Antonio Bryant. Williams has 51 carries in the 5 games he's been active with 2 TDs, but he has barely averaged 3.0 yards/carry. With a playoff spot on the line, the Bucs will ride their RBs against the Raiders poor run defense and hope the other cards falls right so they make it into the post season. Williams is a good candidate for 10+ carries, 50+ yards and a TD. Dunn wasn't as productive as Williams last week and didn't get the goal line touches, so if we had to lay our eggs on one of the two it would be Williams based on last week's role.

Jonathan Stewart - CAR - Stewart got his bell run last week and missed some of the game, but he could finish with a flurry this week against a Saints run defense allowing 127 yds and 0.9 TDs per game. Kevin Smith ran for 111 yards and a TD on 24 carries for the Lions last week against the Saints. The Saints did a solid job the previous two games against Matt Forte (63 yds, 1 TD) and Michael Turner (61 yds, 1 TD), but the Panthers running game is a brutal matchup for most defenses. Stewart managed 71 yds and a TD in week 7 against the Saints. Heading into the playoffs, I suspect Williams could get yanked early or at least share more of the load with Stewart this week.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Tashard Choice - DAL - How can you go against Choice at this point in the season? The Cowboys need this win badly and Choice has helped carry this offense over the last month. He has produced against the toughest defenses in the NFL, so the matchup angle is moot. It's more about how much of the load Choice will get and how much Barber will get against the Eagles this week.

Fred Jackson - BUF - Marshawn Lynch was limited in practice last week by a sore shoulder and he also left Sunday's game early because of it. Jackson is always there to pick up the slack for Lynch and he took over and produced over 100 yards of offense. This week, he should get another decent workload with Lynch likely to be limited or playing at less than 100%. Neither Lynch nor Jackson did much against the Patriots earlier this season, so use Jackson according to Lynch's availability this week.

Kevin Faulk , Sammy Morris and/or LaMont Jordan - NE - In week 10, BenJarvus Green-Ellis started against the Bills and ran for 105 yards and a TD on 26 carries. Kevin Faulk had one of his least busiest games of the year touching the ball 6 times for 18 yards. Now, in a cold weather game, with Jordan, Faulk and Sammy Morris healthy, the Patriots are using all three backs making it difficult to rely on any one of them. Faulk is perhaps the most consistent and reliable. Last week, Jordan was the one getting the carries. This week, it could be Jordan again, or Sammy Morris, but count on Faulk getting his mix of carries and catches to remain viable.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Darren Sproles - SD - With the division and a playoff spot on the line, the Charger need to get Sproles involved in the offense after he ripped the Broncos back in week 2 with 53 yards rushing on 7 carries and 72 yards and a TD on two catches. The Chargers have plenty of momentum and incentive going for them in this game and Sproles' speed is a problem for the Broncos defense.

Gary Russell - PIT - The Steelers are going to the playoffs and there's a decent chance that their regular players could rest more than usual, if not play this week. That means Willie Parker, for sure, could get a lighter load, and possibly even Mewelde Moore. That means Gary Russell could be in line for one of those week 17 style performances against a bad Browns team that barely weathered the Cedric Benson-led Bengals rushing attack last week. Russell could get 15+ touches this week, depending on how long they let Parker and Moore play.

Jason Snelling - ATL - The Falcons are going to the playoffs, so Turner (and possibly Norwood) could both have reduced carries, especially if the Falcons get out in front early in this game. It's super matchup, especially for a run-strong team like the Falcons. Jerious Norwood is a strong reach as long as you think he gets his usual workload or better this week. If there's a chance he might rest more with an eye towards the playoffs, then Snelling is the guy. Last week, Snelling managed 4 touches for 25 yards against the Vikings as they played with a lead in the second half. This week, it should be an easier matchup all around and Snelling could very well carry the mail for the Falcons in the second half. His previous high for touches is 9 against the Raiders in 2007 during his rookie season. He had 59 yards in that game.

Wide Receiver

Steve Breaston - ARI - Breaston needs 88 yards to get 1,000 for the season. I suspect they'll give him a chance to get it, giving them three WRs with 1,000 yards this year potentially. Boldin had 13-186-0 and Fitz 10-151-0 the last time these teams met, while Breaston had a quiet 2-15-0. Boldin could return to the lineup this week, but even so, will he play a whole game or need to? Breaston, Jerheme Urban and Early Doucet are all worth a look because it's a soft matchup and we hope that even Matt Leinart couldn't mess this one up.

Bobby Engram & Deion Branch - SEA - Branch and Engram took a long time to hit any sort of stride this year, but from a fantasy perspective, better late than never. The Seahawks starting duo face the #1 matchup for WRs this week. The Cardinals seem to be looking ahead to the playoffs, too, so these two could end up doing more damage than expected, especially since both are sort of playing for a new contract next year. Engram will be a free agent and Branch may not be back.

Davone Bess & Ted Ginn - MIA - The Jets and Dolphins will be laying it all on the line this week in their battle for the playoffs. The Jets have been a nice matchup for opponents passing games this year. Opposing WRs are averaging 12 catches, 153 yards and 0.7 TDs per game against them. The Dolphins weren't quite in sync in week one when they last player, but Chad Pennington has settled in nicely and Davone Bess his go-to guy now. Ginn can make big plays, but he's more of a hit/miss play. Bess is the rock solid PPR option.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Domenik Hixon - NYG - Hixon should be productive again this week, as long as the Giants play their starters for most of the game. If not, then consider Steve Smith and maybe Sinorice Moss as well. The Vikings are allowing 10-140-0.7 per game to opposing WRs. Hixon has produced 71, 60, 30, 71 and 68 yards in the last five games while averaging 5 catches and 9 targets per game.

Torry Holt - STL - Over the last six games, Holt is averaging a consistent 50 to 60 yards with on about 4 catches per game and 7-8 targets per game. The Falcons aren't a bad matchup and the Rams are probably going to be trailing early in this game. Holt should be able to get you those 4 catches and 60 yards with an outside chance for a score. Last year, Holt faced the Rams and had a season-high 135 yards and a TD. Then again, Holt also had 93 catches, 1189 yards and 7 TDs last year, too.

Muhsin Muhammad - CAR - It's hard to predict what will happen in week 17 for teams already looking ahead to the playoffs and possibly resting players. Muhammad caught 3 balls for 43 yards the last time these teams met (week 7) while Steve Smith went for 6-122-1. It's a good matchup overall as long as the Panthers don't sit Muhammad, Smith and Delhomme too early.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Devin Hester - CHI - Give credit to Devin Hester this year. He has developed as a receiver even if it came at the expense of his special team's prowess. Hester has a decent matchup against the Texans, who allowed big plays to the Raiders dynamic young duo of Chaz Schilens and Johnnie Lee Higgins. Justin Gage had 76 yards and Brandon Jones 51 the prior week. Reggie Williams had 55 yards and a TD to Matt Jones' 8-104-0 against them. Hester is the Bears biggest playmaker in the passing game and the Texans are giving up some big plays.

Mark Bradley - KC - Last week, Bradley finally returned to form. He was targeted 11 times and caught 4 balls for 57 yards. This week, he has a good matchup against the Bengals, who are allowing 11 catches, 144 yards and 0.9 TDs per week to WRs. Thigpen has been solid and with another good matchup on tap, Bowe and Gonzalez remain obvious studs while Bradley is a viable option as long as he's healthy.

Michael Jenkins - ATL - The Rams are a nice matchup and Jenkins had a solid game in his last time against them with 5-48-1 in week 13 last year. The Rams are allowing an average of 11-165-0.7 per game to WRs. Last week, Isaac Bruce put on a clinic near the end of the game against his old team. Josh Morgan also caught a TD. Harry Douglas is another player to consider in deeper leagues, especially if Jenkins and Roddy White leave the game early.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Mark Clayton - BAL - Clayton has been all in or all out this year. In the four games Clayton scored a TD, he produced 63, 87, 76 and 164 yards. That's 390 of his 648 total yards in four of the 15 games he appeared. In the other 11 games, Clayton's best was 46 yards and most games he finished with 30 yards or under. The Jags secondary is more vulnerable than usual to big plays since Rashean Mathis went down. Flacco and Clayton are due for one of those 40+ yard big plays for a TD.

Jordy Nelson & James Jones - GB - Jones fell off the map completely this year, thanks to an injured knee and numerous setbacks. He's been more productive of late and his only TD this season came against the Lions in week 2. Detroit's been a great matchup all year for just about every position. Aaron Rodgers should put up strong numbers, which means Greg Jennings, Donald Driver are looking good and Jordy Nelson and James Jones make passable reaches in deeper leagues.

Steve Johnson - BUF - Johnson caught 1 ball for 15 yards the last time the Bills played the Patriots in week 10. In that game, James Hardy had two catches for 21 yards and a TD. Johnson, a seventh round pick, has emerged in the second half of his rookie season while Hardy, a second round pick, struggled and ultimately went on IR. Johnson has only two games with more than one catch this year, but the Patriots secondary is a weakness and they're allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs (10-149-1.3 per game). Johnson also has TD catches in each of the last two weeks despite catching only 3 balls total. He's a long shot, but he could see plenty of playing time, with a good matchup and a decent shot at a TD for his third straight game.

Other players: Here are some other names that could be worth a week 17 flyer due to good matchups or circumstances are Early Doucet (vs Sea), Courtney Taylor (at Ari), Jabar Gaffney (at Buf), Keenan Burton (at Atl), Devin Thomas (at SF), Legedu Naanee (vs Den), Brandon Stokley (at SD), David Anderson (vs Chi) and Harry Douglas (vs Stl).  

Tight End

Tony Scheffler - DEN - The Chargers TE rule is fully in effect. Scheffler caught 2 TDs against them (6-64-2) in the controversial second game of the season in Denver that the Chargers lost. Scheffler could have another huge game this week, too.

Anthony Fasano - MIA - Fasano started the season with a bang against the Jets with 8 catches, 84 yards and a TD. Over the next two months his production steadily declined. He caught a TD last week though and the Jets are the 2nd best defense for a TE to face allowing 6-61-0.5 per game. There is plenty to play for in this game, for both sides, and Fasano lit up the Jets the first time around.

Worth a Gamble (Good matchup, solid sleeper)

Kevin Boss - NYG - In the second half of the season, Boss has been a starter quality fantasy TE. This week he faces a Vikings defense allowing 5-53-0.1 to TEs. With Plaxico Burress out for the rest of the year, Boss has taken on a bigger role in the team's red zone plans. Boss has 5 TDs in the last 9 games with 30 or more yards in 6 of those games.

Billy Miller - NO - Miller has been remarkably productive in the second half of the season and Jeremy Shockey sprained his ankle last week. That combination, along with the Panthers allowing 5-43-0.3 to opposing TEs, makes Miller one of the best sleeper plays of the week. Miller should catch a handful of balls at a minimum, even more if the coaching staff opens up the offense even more to let Brees chase Marino's record.

Solid Reach (backup / situational player with upside)

Donald Lee - GB - The Lions are the 3rd best matchup for opposing TEs allowing 5-61-0.5 per game. Lee caught 2 balls for 27 yards in week 2 against the Lions and he's been a spotty play for most of the season. The Lions struggle defensively in all areas and Lee has 5 TDs on the season, so he's a decent reach for those looking for the possibility of scoring a TD angle.

Bo Scaife - TEN - Scaife caught 5 balls for 44 yards against the Colts in week 8 and Alge Crumpler caught 4 for 35 yards in the same game. Last week, Marcedes Lewis produced 6-55-0 against the Colts. Kerry Collins may not play the whole game, which means that Scaife may not either. If Vince Young gets extended action with Scaife, then he should benefit even more against a Colts defense allowing 5-47-0.1 to opposing TEs.

Todd Heap - BAL - Heap has been a little busier in the second half of the season, but still not enough to write home about. The Jags are a good matchup for opposing TEs allowing 4-53-0.4 per game, so Heap just might surprise us this week. Derrick Mason, as tough as he is, needs some rest and he's banged up. The Ravens would be smart to utilize Heap and Clayton more this week and continue riding the Le'Ron McClain train into the playoffs.

If you're desperate (worth a look in deeper leagues)

Martellus Bennett - DAL - Witten has been banged up for the last two months forcing/allowing the rookie Martellus Bennett to get more involved into the offense. Bennett has 18 catches for 269 yards with 4 TDs and he could be the Cowboy's starting TE this week depending on Witten's availability (sprained knee/ankle).