Fantasy Roundtable - Preseason Edition
Posted 7/29 by Staff, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Welcome to the second offseason edition of the 2008 Footballguys Roundtable. Feel free to eavesdrop as various staff members share their views on a range of topics in discussion format. This week, they touch on the following:
- The Brett Favre Saga
- Kevin Jones to the Bears
- Peyton Manning & Marvin Harrison
- Rising and Falling Teams
- Rounds 6-10
- Rookie RBs
- Training Camp Battles
- Who Will Be . . . ?
The Brett Favre Saga
Will Favre play this year?
Cecil Lammey: Yeah, Favre will play this year! Unless he changes his mind of course.
Colin Dowling: I don't think he will play this year. I just don't see a reasonable way out for anyone involved. My opinion is that Favre looks terrible in the media right now so the longer he pushes for the solution he wants, the more teams and fans will start to sour on the guy. For starters, most teams already have their quarterback situation set. In many cases (Baltimore, Kansas City) that situation is far from appealing. But are the Chiefs going to win the Super Bowl with Brett Favre under center? Not likely. The last few years may have labeled Favre as a bit of a waffler, so I can't see any GM taking a chance on him when the possibility exists that he might get to camp and change his mind yet again.
It's amazing to me that Favre doesn't realize he could easily show up in Green Bay, outplay Rodgers, and get his job back. Forget the fact that he feels unwanted; that's far from the point in all this. If he wants to take a snap in 2008, it's going to be at least in part on the Packers' terms, either for them or for a team they choose to trade him to. The more bullets he fires on FOX News, the less chance there is of this working out in his favor.
Jason Wood: Yes, he's going to play. At this point he's come out and explicitly said he wants to play. What he needs to do to prove that though is unretire. At that point, the Packers have three choices, keep him for $12mm, trade him or release him.
Jeff Haseley: I don't think he'll play. Green Bay doesn't want him back as
a starter (there's something fishy there) and they don't want to release him
so he could sign with another team. I'm beginning to think there is some unknown
conflict behind the scenes between Favre and the Packer management that may
have materialized years ago. I think he would welcome playing for a different
team, but I doubt the Packers will release him. So ultimately I think Brett
will come to the realization that his retirement is very real.
Mark Wimer: If he follows the proper protocol and officially unretires, then
yes, he'll play. He has a lot of control over his destination (evidently a no-trade
clause or something similar in his last contract with Green Bay), so it won't
be for a garbage team like Chicago, if I had to guess.
If he does play, will it be in Green Bay or elsewhere?
Cecil Lammey: Something will get worked out and the Packers will trade him. Will he end up like Johnny Unitas as a Charger, or Joe Namath as a 49er? Or will he end up more like Joe Montana with the Chiefs? Only time will tell, but Favre has still got it. There are several teams that would love to have the Mississippi marauder lead their team.
GMs may not like him vacillating, but it's Brett Favre! You can't tell me that Jon Gruden wouldn't wet himself to get Favre on the Buccaneers. A team like the Bucs is a perfect fit. Who cares if he plays one, two, or five more years? Make a Super Bowl run while you can, and the Bucs could certainly do that with #4 back there. Jeff Garcia could take a hike, and if Favre didn't come back next year they could go to Griese or any number of journeyman QBs.
Windows of opportunity don't stay open for very long in the NFL, so you have to give your team the best shot to win now while at the same time keeping a long view. The long view for the Bucs? Josh Johnson. Learning from Favre would be a Godsend for their QB of the future. Doug Williams will make Johnson a very good QB, but learning some little things from Favre would be even better. But Josh, when you decide to hang 'em up, please don't take your cues from Brett!
Jeff Tefertiller: I think the odds of him staying in GB are less than 50-50. He played at a high level last year, so there should be interest from other teams. Thompson loves draft picks so this will be interesting to see it play out.
Jason Wood: I can't see him playing in Green Bay. Ted Thompson would have to not only be willing to welcome Brett back, but he would also be effectively ridding the team of Aaron Rodgers. How could they possibly tell Rodgers to hang in there when Favre might ultimately decide to play this year and next? And the idea that Favre would be the backup is silly. No one believes that, including Favre, Rodgers, Thompson and McCarthy. So my suspicion is that Favre will end up playing elsewhere.
Will Grant: I absolutely cannot see Favre playing for another team in 2007. It's the Packers (my vote) or the broadcast booth. He knows that he has maybe one good season left, which means he'll be looking for a team that's a QB away from winning the Super Bowl. Who is that? Minnesota? Buffalo? Is there any way in the world if you are Thompson that you let Favre go to Minnesota? You'd be stoned in the street.... especially if the Vikings beat the Packers. The right to pretty much 'veto' any trade that Joe pointed out in the updates makes this even more compelling.
There is no point in Favre going to an uncompetitive franchise. He doesn't need the money and can't take the pounding. Why would he bother? Even more telling is the way that he retired. In the press conference he cited 'the pressure of being Brett Favre week after week' as one of the reasons for not wanting to return. Another was something like 'Sunday I am there, but Monday through Saturday, my heart just isn't in it.' If you go to another team, the pressure to be Brett Favre is even greater ... and since you're learning a new offense with new receivers, you have to be hungry because you're going to have to study and work out and learn their tendencies and playing speeds. Why would Favre do that given the reasons that he retired?
I believe that Favre will call the Packers' bluff, shows up in Green Bay and DARE the front office to bench him. Can you imagine the fans during week 1 if Favre's consecutive game streak is broken because the front office decided that he was only good enough to carry a clipboard? They'd burn down the stadium.
Jeff Pasquino: For me it comes down to a few simple questions. If Green Bay would have agreed to Favre coming back as their starter in February or March, what has really changed since then? If Favre had injured himself in his final game in January and would have been out for six months, there would really not be any difference in what has transpired on the field for Green Bay and what has happened already.
Everyone needs to forget the interviews, press conferences, statements and all the talking going on and step back. Look at the big picture. Brett Favre was an impressive starting QB last season and he gives Green Bay a legitimate chance at winning a Lombardi Trophy next February. Isn't that the goal for the Packers?
Mark Wimer: Jeff, that depends on how quickly cool heads prevail in Green Bay. They were an NFC Championship round team last year with Favre and they could do that again. If not Green Bay, I like Cecil's suggestion of Tampa Bay, as it makes some sense (although Favre is not known as a good mentor for young QBs, so Josh Johnson would have to learn by observing and through attending coaching sessions along with Favre).
Anthony Borbely: I think he will play, but it will not be for the Packers. He will not be released because the Packers do not want him playing within the division. I honestly see the Packers playing hardball with him and not making a move until late in preseason. The end result will be a trade to an AFC team.
Does last year's performance mean he's still got it, or after 2005 and 2006, was 2007 an aberration?
Jason Wood: Last year was among his best seasons so I wouldn't have expected a repeat performance even if he remained in GB as the planned starter all along. That said, I kind of take issue with the idea that he "lost it" in 2005 and 2006. He's always been a gun slinger and the only thing he really lost in those years was a belief in his teammates. He thought he had to make impossible plays for the team to win, and that led to poor decision making. The key for Favre succeeding now though would mean putting him in another classic WCO and giving him weapons so he can avoid trying to win games single-handedly.
Mark Wimer: He's still got "it", in my opinion. The "old gunslinger" mentality is what makes him so dangerous (and also sometimes volatile) at this level of competition. Favre has seen enough games that he's willing to make throws other guys might toss out of bounds (for better or for worse).
Marc Levin: If he does play, he will not be the Favre of old, but he still has enough in the tank to right a ship like Minnesota, Washington, or Baltimore. And he will flirt with top 12 status. If Brunell could be effective for the Redskins, Favre can help out some other program. I point to Joe Montana's last few years with the Chiefs as the example of how I'd see Favre fading out for another squad.
Anthony Borbely: My biggest concern is whether he can physically withstand another year of playing. As for his level of play, I think it will be somewhere in between last season and the two previous to that.
Who's more at fault (if anybody) for the current mess -- Ted Thompson or Brett Favre?
Jason Wood: I don't think there's any blame here. Favre filed his retirement papers so this wasn't a posturing thing like we usually see (most recently from Michael Strahan). But he played at an MVP level last year and is a super competitor so I don't think it's surprising to see him having second thoughts. Thompson did everything a good GM should; stood behind his young starter, solidify the position with another youngster in the draft, and go about building a team that can win in spite of Favre's departure.
Will Grant: Favre might be an incredible competitor, but he's a lousy decision maker. He strung everyone along last season, creating a circus of chaos with the press conferences and speculation. At least he had the stones this time to say 'Nope, I'm done, move on without me'. Thank you, see you in the booth. But now to come back, and get into this pissing match with the Packer front office? What is the point? Play. Don't play. Make a decision and move on. If you want to play, show up and beat out the competition. If you really are coming back to help the Packers win, then be man enough to admit that if Rogers or another QB is playing better than you, you could help them win by being a backup.
Jeff Haseley: Ultimately I think the blame falls on Ted Thompson for not being truthful to Brett Favre. I think a combination of that and promises he made to Aaron Rodgers made this whole ordeal a mess. If Favre decides to attend training camp this could get ugly fast.
Jeff Pasquino: I think there's enough fault to give to both sides. Favre should have said "hey, I'm taking all the time I need and that could mean until August, and you guys need to plan with that in mind." Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy should have left him alone so he could make his decision. It really doesn't matter as they are where they are today, and they have to look forward rather than back to fix this.
So where do they go from here? The Packers are in good shape with their salary cap and Aaron Rodgers is now even more ready to step in if Favre gets hurt. He isn't invincible and there isn't a guarantee that he will play as well this year as last season, but regardless both sides have to swallow their pride and decide what is best for everyone - and that means Brett Favre should start Week 1 for Green Bay.
Mark Wimer: I agree with Jason: I don't think "fault" comes into this. Favre got bored with the home life and just didn't decide he wanted another season soon enough to suit the Packers, so he may wear another uniform (as Joe Montana did when it was Steve Young's turn in San Francisco). Sometimes the passing of the torch from one generation of players to the next is messy. It certainly has become messy for the Packers this time around.
Anthony Borbely: I place almost all of the blame on Favre. He has strung the Packers out for a few years and they never knew how to address QB in the draft because they never knew what he was going to do. Now he retires, the Packers address QB in the draft, begin the process of beginning the Aaron Rodgers era, and out of the blue, Favre says he wants to come back. He is not entitled to any guarantees about starting because he retired. The Packers are not obligated to release him because it is not in the best interests of the team. He needs to realize that he is not above the team and if he wants to return, he should honor his contract. He has preached to teammates in the past about honoring their contracts and he needs to practice what he preaches. He should return to the Packers with no strings attached and no guarantees and let this all play out.
Kevin Jones to the Bears
What's your read on this situation? He got the minimum for a veteran of his experience. Does that mean teams aren't convinced on his health? On his talent?
What will Jones' role be with the Bears this season? What does this do to your Matt Forte projections?
David Yudkin: I think Jones will start the regular season on the PUP List and miss at least the first 6 games. I think this is a depth and insurance move by Chicago.
The benefit to Jones is that later in the year he may be able to showcase some of his skills and try to prove to people he has his mobility back, in addition to being able to stay healthy (if that's possible). Maybe he'll see 10 carries and a couple receptions a game the second half of the season. By then the Bears should have an idea as to whether Forte is the answer for them or not, and if not maybe KJ will get the ball a bit more.
I don't think this would drop my projections of Forte much, as I had him sharing a decent chunk of the workload to begin with, so as I see it, what's changed is the distribution to the other guys, not Forte.
Cecil Lammey: Jones will see some action, possibly as a receiving option out of the backfield.
Let's face it, Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton don't scare opposing defenses. The line is going to be stacked to stop the run. The Bears are looking for Forte to soften up the defense, but how much of a chance will he get? It could be a lot of three-and-outs for Chicago this year, and they could get behind early and often. This means they will have to take to the air in order to keep up.
Matt Forte is an underrated receiver, but Kevin Jones came into his own as a receiver under Mike Martz. We could see both backs lined up behind the QB in order to get the Bears' best talent on the field. Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian are gone, so their targets have to go somewhere. Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark should see an increase, but so will the RBs.
Jason Wood: Wish I could pose a counter argument but I too see things progressing the same way. Jones signed a 1-year, $605K deal which gives the Bears no financial commitment to him other than a call option on his services if/when his knee is stable. This was a move much more about solidifying the depth at the position than it was about hedging their enthusiasm for Matt Forte.
Ultimately I see this signing as a great thing for Forte's fantasy value. I legitimately saw him as a top 24 fantasy back and, yet, this signing will drop his ADP enough that he can be an end game target in almost all of your leagues.
Will Grant: The two guys who are most likely to suffer fantasy value drop here are Garrett Wolfe and (Chicago's) Adrian Peterson. These guys had some value in the event that Forte didn't pan out, but with Jones there, both need a few injuries before they will see the field. Wolfe may be the odd man out of the rotation given his size.
Jeff Haseley: I think Matt Forte is the back the coaches want and he's the one that will produce the greatest numbers this year for Chicago - by far. I would not be surprised to see Forte reach 280-300 carries this year with the remainder going to the rest of the bunch. I really think the Bears' coaching staff will lean on Forte. The next concern is how well will the OL improve from a very dismal performance last year? That will be the biggest factor in determining the degree of Matt Forte's success.
Jeff Pasquino: The Bears got themselves a very cheap backup RB. Kevin Jones looked okay in his workouts, but that's not a guarantee to translate to full contact and pads. Getting the league minimum is interesting from Jones' perspective - either he thinks Chicago is the best chance for him to crack the lineup and get bigger money next year, or the RB market price is really low. I think it is a combination of both, because you still have veteran RBs out there like Shaun Alexander that don't have a home yet.
I don't think Jones will impact Matt Forte a ton this year - Forte is still the starter. If he produces like they think he will, then Jones won't get very much work. I would have been more concerned if another veteran had been signed behind Forte, but if the Bears were questioning Forte they likely would have signed a more reliable and less risky veteran backup.
Mark Wimer: Jason is right about Forte becoming even more of a value. He's going to have every chance to succeed, but because your average fantasy owner has heard of Kevin Jones (and now Jones is with the team), a lot of people are going to assume this is a RBBC (at best) or that Jones has an inside track to start. As the other guys have articulated, Jones is a long shot to be the starter, but that won't stop Forte from dropping down the average draft board.
Anthony Borbely: His low dollar contract was nothing more than an injured player not wanting to be locked in long-term at a low salary, but no team was going to throw big money at a player with durability issues. Even if he returns and plays well, he may have to sign another short-term deal to prove he can play 16 games.
I am not sure he will begin on PUP, although it's a possibility. He has proven to be a fast healer, as nobody could have foreseen him returning as early as he did last year. I will not be at all surprised if he is ready for week one. If this happens, I believe he is a threat to Forte. I can see a RBBC here.
Colin Dowling: I'm not in the know on this enough to know if he can start the season on the active squad, but I imagine Jones signed with Chicago because the path to the starting gig isn't as competitive as some other spots (like Pittsburgh, which features two good talents). Let's say he starts on PUP and Forte hits a rookie wall around week 10. Jones will no doubt have the opportunity to step in and earn himself a better pay day next year. Even if Forte goes bananas, Jones is a valuable pass-catcher and may be a better pass-blocker than Forte. Put me in the camp that thinks once he's active, he'll see the field a lot.
What's Jones' value in dynasty leagues?
David Yudkin: There are still too many question marks to get a read on his dynasty value. He signed a one year deal with the hope of getting a better contract in the 2009 season, but we don't know if he'll stay in Chicago or go somewhere else; and we don't know if he'll get a chance to compete for a starting job or be viewed strictly as a backup. A lot depends on what kind of showing he makes this season.
Cecil Lammey: KJ's dynasty value is very low. He's talented, but often injured. I've said it many times, a RB's shelf life in the NFL is less than 5 years. Sure we've seen the likes of Curtis Martin and Emmitt Smith be productive for 10+ years, but they are the exceptions and not the rule. Jones could just end up being another in the long line of NFL RBs that never reach their potential.
David Yudkin: We just don't know where Jones' career is headed. While the list of 10-12 year uber studs at RB is pretty short, if we dug around I'm sure we could come up with some players that were dinged up a lot or moved from team to team that finally started getting healthy and producing.
To be clear, I am not suggesting that Jones will fall into that bucket anytime soon, but there are players like Priest Holmes, Thomas Jones, James Brooks, and Charlie Garner who developed on other teams or who had some early injuries.
I would fall on the "likely to miss out on his potential" side of this argument at this point, but maybe he can turn things around. Fred Taylor got the rap early in his career for being hurt all the time, but eventually shed that reputation. Maybe Jones can do the same.
Will Grant: Jones has some dynasty value, but it's not like you're going to be trading a second round pick to get him. His upside is completely limited, and he won't have much opportunity to prove otherwise being #2 in the rotation in Chicago.
Jeff Pasquino: Jones doesn't have a ton of value in dynasty leagues. Take a look at our rankings and he's hovering in the RB40 area. He is still young (26 in August) but he just can't seem to stay healthy. If he can pull it all together and fight for a starting spot, his value could skyrocket (which is why he's ranked about where a decent backup RB should be) - but that's far from a guarantee. His durability is a huge question mark.
Marc Levin: I think this season will be a tester for him and for GMs around the league. If he comes back midseason and contributes to the squad late in the year - finishes up healthy and looking good - then he bought himself a nice payday next year.
Peyton Manning & Marvin Harrison
Any major worries about Peyton Manning's knee? It looks like he'll miss most of training camp and the preseason.
If you had to draft today, is Manning still in your top two or three fantasy QBs? In what round would you consider him a fair value? Late second in a twelve-team league? Early third?
Colin Dowling: This is the first season where Manning's ADP may drop to a spot where I'd be inclined to jump on him as a draft pick. The injury could hinder him throughout the season, but the upside of his consistency and production is hard to beat. I'm sure he'll slide to QB 4 or even QB 5 in some drafts, which is just silly.
Cecil Lammey: Manning's knee doesn't bother me. He'll be good to go, and remain one of the most consistent QBs to ever play the game. His average draft position will drop, which is only a good thing for savvy fantasy owners.
Jason Wood: Manning was already ranked QB3 in my rankings, so I'm fine keeping him where he was. Ultimately I agree that if this recovery goes according to plan, Manning may be decent value if you can land him in the 3rd round. The good thing about this injury is that Manning is more prepared than almost any other NFL QB to miss time. He and his major offensive teammates understand the offense inside and out, so it shouldn't take too long to shake off the rust.
Jeff Haseley: I also believe that this will not affect Peyton Manning's production this year. If anything, it means he can potentially be picked in the 3rd round or later. If this has been a problem with him in the past, it hasn't really affected his production. This moves Manning down the draft board just a tad for me. I don't see him as a 2nd round pick, but he would be great value in the 4th round or later, if he lasts that long.
Will Grant: Seems that we generally agree. Jason said it best: Manning knows this offense. After watching a few Hard Knocks shows on HBO, the one thing that I realized is that veteran players who know the system inside and out approach training camp in a very different way. They are more concerned with polishing what they know and staying healthy. Guys like Edgerrin James are not fighting for their job, and their coaches know to take it easy on them. You don't see them play much in the preseason and yet they come in week 1 and are at full speed. Manning isn't exactly old by NFL standards, but the point is the same - he's been there a long time and he knows the system. He will be ready week 1.
Jene Bramel: In general, surgical procedures for bursitis, including an infected bursa sac, are uncommon. Like anything else, however, I would guess that the timetables and likelihood of surgery are greatly accelerated in professional sports. In this case, it looks like Manning has had chronic issues with the knee, so it was probably a quick and easy decision to move forward once there were signs of infection.
From my brief reading, it appears most patients recover well, though it will be a minimum 4 week recovery -- 6-8 weeks is the most common recovery period in the literature. There are some risks of complication, most notably a recurrence of bursitis in the tissue that grows back after surgery. That risk is reasonably low.
Manning isn't exactly a mobile guy, so the success of his recovery shouldn't be a major issue on that front. However, the front leg is critical for stabilization on the follow-through obviously, so the main risk (as it was for Carson Palmer's recovery) is that Manning's accuracy could suffer.
I'd consider downgrading him slightly -- assuming that he'll play but may or may not be 100% for the first couple of weeks of the regular season.
Jeff Pasquino: I think it is a concern that Peyton had the surgery so close to training camp. The timing is really questionable. Why did he not get this done in March or April if it was a problem? The problem was apparently discovered in February, so they should have planned for a procedure after OTAs at the latest.
I do agree with Jason that if there's any player who can afford to miss training camp, it's Peyton. He knows that offense cold and can roll out of bed and run that huddle. As for mobility - ahem - well, if he had any it would be affected. Fortunately he has none, so it shouldn't matter much. As our good doctor Jene Bramel mentioned, this could affect his plant leg and release so his accuracy may suffer, but if he can get some work in before Week 1 I think he will be fine.
Odds are that he won't miss opening that new stadium without a fight as well, so his draft stock is depressed only for those who don't read the FBG News. As long as he remains on track, I wouldn't hesitate to draft him in Round 3 (if he does sink that low).
Mark Wimer: I am perhaps more worried than most on this front, because of the possibility of the current, troublesome infection recurring (or a new staph infection occurring as a result of the surgery). The ongoing, serial knee surgeries that guys like Joe Jurevicius and Kellen Winslow have had to endure as a result of knee infections give me pause regarding Manning. He's been a model of durability, but no amount of willpower or conditioning can overcome microbes if they get established in that joint. All that said, he's still my QB 3 and if I could land him after taking my first RB and first WR (or RB/RB depending on draft position) then I'd take on the additional injury risk and draft Manning. Hopefully, we'll get some good news about his rehab in the next few weeks and I won't have to worry so much about "what ifs" regarding the infection angle.
Will Marvin Harrison make any kind of nice comeback this season?
Colin Dowling: I'm loving Harrison this season, and I have no idea if or even when he'll make it back to the field. But he'll be available in drafts in the same range as guys who have never proven anything and play on bad teams. If an undisputed #1 or #2 receiver that catches balls from Manning, Brady, or Palmer is available in the middle rounds, it's foolish to pass on them in my view.
Cecil Lammey: Marvin Harrison is done. We've seen it his whole career, but it was really evident after his injury: Marvin doesn't like to get hit. Harrison lengthened his career by catching the ball and falling down, running out of bounds, and generally shying away from contact. I don't hold this against him; he knew that he wasn't big enough to take shot after shot and keep coming back. He's been able to play this long because he knew he's not Hines Ward. When he did finally come back last year he looked timid. He was thinking about his injury instead of just playing. He's got a ring, he's got plenty of stats, and the Colts are ready to move on - with or without him. With his off-field issues coming to the forefront we could see a media that is more critical of him. Marvin Harrison is quiet and reserved: he likes his privacy. How will he respond to the wolfpack mentality of the media? Receivers like him are few and far between. But when it's over for these older receivers, it's over. Harrison takes a lot of pride in his craft, and he won't stick around just to rack up stats. This could very well be his final year in the NFL.
Jason Wood: Harrison is a forgotten man this year. I will say one thing, Tony Dungy is an honest man and he was on NFL Total Access last week saying that Harrison is in great shape, has no legal issues and will be ready to go in training camp. You can be sure that if Harrison is back practicing at full speed early in camp, his current draft position is going to skyrocket!
Jeff Haseley: I agree with Cecil in that I think he lost his edge. In the brief time that he returned last year, he seemed soft at times. We'll see if that continues in 2008, but I have a feeling that he is physically unable to do certain things that he could do before. I too think this will be his last year in the league and as a result I'm forecasting a dramatic decrease in production from his usual numbers.
Will Grant: If Harrison is healthy, it will take about 5 plays for him and Manning to get back in sync. If he can put his injury concerns behind him, I agree with Jason - He's going to be huge value as a 6th round pick.
Jeff Pasquino: I agree with Cecil's view on Harrison's persona. He doesn't like contact. Unfortunately for him, his body may not allow him to continue at a productive level and he could very well be done. That's one player I will be watching closely in preseason and training camp reports. If he is ready to go, odds are that he will be a great value pick in fantasy drafts in August.
Mark Wimer: I think Reggie Wayne is the unquestioned #1 on the Colts now, and with the development of Anthony Gonzalez, Harrison may find himself in the #3 role this year. It's time for the team to move on to the future.
Marc Levin: Harrison will love his role as a part-time player to come in just for three-wide sets. Manning trusts him, and he will be an important piece of that squad - especially as a clutch, go-to player. His days as a consistent fantasy force may be more than a little shaky. I think he will still start most of the games, but Gonzalez, Addai, and Clark will chew up his production. I think he will flirt with 10 TDs, but will struggle to reach 60 catches or 900 yards.
Anthony Borbely: I think Harrison will play, but I'm not sure he can return to stud status. He is getting up in years and did not play much last year. I see him as a WR3 at best even if he is healthy. He is getting up in years and I do not believe he can physically play at a high enough level to be anything more than a WR3 this year. I also think he will lose snaps even if he returns and starts.
Rising and Falling Teams
Looking around the NFL, some teams seem to have had much more productive offseasons than others.
Which teams managed to stay focused and launch their 2008 season with a solid series of spring workouts?
Mark Wimer: In my opinion, the teams with the most positive offseasons were Carolina and New England.
Now that Delhomme looks healthy, the Panthers' offense should be much improved. The draft improved the OL and also brought in a bruising inside runner in Jonathan Stewart. The team reloaded the WR stable with old favorite Muhsin Muhammad (who has been reported to be in great shape) and added D.J. Hackett, a big improvement over Drew Carter and Keary Colbert. I like the direction of this offense.
For New England, the good news is that Brady's ankle is healthy; also Spygate is (finally) over, and defensive stalwart Tedy Bruschi's feeling healthy. No key players departed in free agency, in my opinion, and third-year WR Chad Jackson has looked good in spring workouts. He's at the stage where may young guys "get it" at the NFL level.
Jeff Pasquino: I agree with Mark about Carolina, but disagree about New England.
I like Carolina and Jake Delhomme. His situation is almost like Drew Brees a few years ago - older QB that is coming off of surgery - but he hasn't switched teams and he got back his old teammate in Muhsin Muhammad.
The Patriots, however, have lost Asante Samuel and Donte Stallworth, and their linebackers are still up there in age. Yes, they added a rookie (Jerod Mayo) but there's no guarantee that he will step in and deliver.
Marc Levin: I think the Dolphins have helped themselves this offseason. They actually have competition at a ton of spots on the offensive side of the ball.
And nobody is talking about the Steelers, but they have made some improvements to their depth, and lost very little from last year. I think they are a team that can compete with the Chargers, Colts, and Patriots this year.
Anthony Borbely: I think the Browns are a team on the rise. I liked their additions of Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams on the defensive line. Stallworth is not the greatest WR, but he should be a solid third option in the passing game. Derek Anderson should be a lot better this year with the year of experience.
The Chiefs made a lot of moves, but I am shocked they did not address their QB issues. I think their line will be better and also see a healthy LJ returning to form. Glenn Dorsey was a great pick and will add a solid middle of the line presence. Losing Jared Allen hurts but Dorsey and Brandon Flowers should both help to upgrade the defensive talent.
The Vikings really helped an already strong defense by adding Jared Allen and Madieu Williams. Berrian will help the offense and Tarvaris Jackson should keep improving. I think many forget just how raw he was coming out of college.
On the flip side, which teams had a rough time this past spring, with poor luck injury-wise or otherwise?
Mark Wimer: The Bears may have had the worst offseason with the Cedric Benson boating-and-driving intoxicated debacles and his subsequent release. WR Mark Bradley, a guy the team hoped could help plug the holes left by the departures of Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian, underwent late offseason knee surgery and may not be back in time for training camp. On top of all this, the front office re-signed Rex Grossman and the team has either him or Kyle Orton to choose from at QB. That's an ugly QB roster, folks.
Anthony Borbely: Yes, the Bears lost their best WR and added nothing of note. Their offensive line is in shambles. They are depending on a rookie RB. They have had QB issues for years, but did nothing. I don't understand their offseason at all.
Will Grant: I totally agree with Mark and Anthony about Chicago. They kept their defense intact, but they lost big time on the offensive side of the ball. The Bears lose their leading passer (Brian Griese), leading rusher (Cedric Benson) and leading receiver (Bernard Berrian) from last year, and who did they add? Brandon Lloyd, a complete bomb in Washington, and Marty Booker, who wasn't very good when he left back in 2004.
At QB, can you even call Grossman vs. Orton a battle? The offensive line is a year older with no major upgrades. Devin Hester can only do so much to help this team score.
If the defense can stay healthy, they will lose a lot of close games. If their defense continues to battle injuries, they are going to have a top 5 draft pick next season.
Mark Wimer: The Colts have also had a rough offseason. First of all, we've spent all offseason following Marvin Harrison's lingering injury issue (is it really physical, or has he lost the desire to play at the NFL level?). Plus the distraction of Harrison's gun crime/investigation. Now we suddenly have Manning's surprise knee surgery sprung on the eve of training camp. Will six weeks away from team practices disrupt the precision timing that Manning requires to run the Colts' offense at peak performance? There will be no way to tell until fantasy drafts are all in the books.
Jason Wood: As Mark suggested, the Manning surgery is a surprise. They are calling it routine but I say any knee surgery in July isn't "routine" and obviously it's something to watch. The Colts also have had the Harrison distraction although, to be fair, Coach Dungy says Harrison is healthy and not involved in the Philadelphia incident.
The Broncos are another team that has had more than its fair share of distractions. The team waived Travis Henry, and found out that Brandon Marshall has additional legal concerns in the midst of his rehabbing a torn apart arm thanks to a fight with his brother.
Mark Wimer: Yes, the loss of Henry throws the whole RB stable into question, and coach Shanahan seems to have worn the fur off his magic rabbit's foot that used to yield top RBs from nowhere earlier this decade. Marshall definitely is having trouble handling his high profile and role on the team, and has made a lot of horrid decisions and engaged in behavior damaging to his image and his well being (physically and legally speaking). Free agent WR acquisitions Darrell Jackson and Keary Colbert don't inspire a lot of confidence in my mind either. The one bit of good news is that QB Jay Cutler's type-1 diabetes has been diagnosed and can be treated without affecting his performance.
Jeff Pasquino: The Giants lost a few players (Strahan retired, Gibril Wilson left to free agency, Jeremy Shockey was traded) and have had a short offseason to prepare for 2008. Both Dallas and Philly improved in the offseason so New York may have fallen backwards as a result.
Mark Wimer: One last team that I think had a shake offseason is Oakland. Questionable offseason moves like vastly overpaying Javon Walker have even Al Davis questioning the team's direction (and he's the guy who made the deals). Then, Walker shows up out of shape to OTAs, and his bum knee is still an issue - followed by the beat down he suffered in Vegas, which will further set back his conditioning/recovery from the knee injury. The team uses a high draft pick on Darren McFadden when there are other areas screaming for quality personnel (on the heels of Justin Fargas' best season and Michael Bush's return from a broken leg). The Raiders' organization is in disarray, with second-year coach Lane Kiffin reportedly on the hot seat with Davis already, which is ridiculous in my opinion as Kiffin simply inherited several failed coaching staffs' messes and has had zero chance to put his own stamp on anything in Oakland.
Rounds 6-10
In most fantasy drafts, the first five rounds are fairly consistent. Most cheatsheets have the same 50 or so guys, just in slightly different orders. It's when you hit that 60-100 range that draft strategy really starts to take shape, and the real value players come out.
Name one player that you're targeting in the 6th to 10th round range and explain why you think that player is a guy you want on your roster.
Jeff Haseley: Nate Burleson. Great opportunity on a team that may again have trouble running the ball, thus resulting in more passes.
Mark Wimer: Jake Delhomme will likely be my first QB taken this season. I love his upside and will wait on picking him as my first QB until rounds 9-10 (or perhaps a bit sooner, depending on the dynamics of any given draft). I'll probably be filling out my #3 RB and #4 WR before looking at QB unless a major run at the position develops.
Jeff Pasquino: Jeremy Shockey is way, way, way too cheap at his current average draft position. Last I checked it was at 98, or Round 9. That's crazy value for a Pro Bowl TE when he's 100%, which it sure seems that he is right now. He'll be playing for the pass-happy Saints with a QB who knows how to use the tight end (remember Drew Brees to Antonio Gates in San Diego?). Add in that he's motivated to show everyone he can still put up big numbers and I'm all for picking him up as my first TE.
Jeff Tefertiller: I like the QBs that are the late QB1 tier. David Garrard is a good bet to be solid once again. And, with the big Favre ruckus going on, the ADP of Aaron Rodgers continues to slip. A savvy fantasy owner getting both of these in the 9-11 area is in good shape at a cheap price.
Marc Levin: If Joey Galloway doesn't win "pick of the middle rounds" running away (literally), I will eat my hat. I see no better value from 6-10.
Anthony Borbely: Tony Scheffler is a great value pick after the elite TEs are all gone. I think he could be a top 5 TE this year.
Rookie RBs
Since 1992 the NFL has had at least one rookie RB reach 1000 yards rushing or more in a season. Which rookie RB has the best chance at 1000 yards rushing this season?
Marc Levin: A better question is which will be first as there is a chance we could break the record for number of rookies who reach a thousand yards. I'd say all of McFadden, Forte, Kevin Smith, and Jonathan Stewart have a better than even chance to complete the task.
Anthony Borbely: I think a few have a chance, but I fully expect Jonathan Stewart to be over 1000 yards, while the rest are only possibilities. Stewart was not drafted to be a part timer. The Panthers want to get back to the power running game that they had back in the Stephen Davis days. McFadden could be over 1000 combined yards, but I highly doubt he sees 1000 rushing yards.
Jeff Pasquino: Forte and Kevin Smith are the only viable options here in my opinion. All the rest will either be in a RBBC situation or not be handed the keys until later in the season. Oakland still has Fargas, a player who is getting overlooked quite a bit. Jonathan Stewart will share the workload with DeAngelo Williams, and Jake Delhomme will still throw quite a bit. Stewart is also coming off of an injury, so 1,000 yards is a big stretch. Mendenhall is a complimentary piece to Willie Parker. Ryan Torain is in the biggest RBBC situation of them all and will be lucky to get 700 yards, let alone 1,000. Chris Johnson may see more targets than carries this year - and neither will break 100.
Mark Wimer: Personally, I agree with Anthony about Jonathan Stewart. I think he has a great shot at 1000+ rushing yards with the caveat that his foot has to be 100% at the start of training camp. If he misses reps in training camp, then I think he's stuck in an RBBC with Williams but if Stewart can grab the brass ring from day 1 of training camp, Stewart is the favorite to get 1000+ rushing yards this year.
The close second goes to Matt Forte, who definitely is the team's first choice to be the featured back. His problems are that the Chicago OL is horrid and the Bears' passing game won't do much to keep opposing defenses honest.
Sigmund Bloom: The easy answer is Forte. For all the problems with the offensive line, quarterbacks, and passing game in 2007, Cedric freaking Benson was on pace for 1000 yards. Forte will surely run as well as Benson, and he's very likely to run better than Benson despite his modest talent, because of his warrior mentality. Kevin Jones is no threat to cut into Forte's work until later in the season, and Forte is used to putting the offense on his back from his days at Tulane. Kevin Smith comes in second because of opportunity, plus the Lions seem to be enamored with him. The problem is that they are in a transition to a new run-based offense, and this year is likely to be full of growing pains. Stewart has the best chance based on talent, but past years have shown us that the most talented back in Carolina rarely gets to be the featured back. McFadden and Mendenhall will yield too many carries to underrated incumbents Justin Fargas and Willie Parker.
Will Grant: I agree with Jeff that Kevin Smith and Matt Forte are the two who have the best chances, but I think Stewart has a chance as well. Smith will have little or no competition, and should have no trouble reaching the 1000 yard mark. Forte has a solid chance, but the appearance of Kevin Jones might cramp that a bit. There may be just enough guys like Jones, Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe who might prevent Forte from hitting the 1000 yard mark. The Bears need a running back to help carry the load and take the defensive focus off of the passing game. If the running game can't keep their opponents honest, Grossman and Orton will be running for their lives.
Stewart will have some competition from Williams, but I had Williams in several leagues last season and can vouch for the fact that he's not an 'every down' back who can carry the load. If Stewart can get into the lineup, he will have a good chance to take over the majority of the carries.
Jeff Haseley: I personally think Kevin Smith has the best chance to reach 1000 yards because I think he'll get the most carries of all the rookie backs. Smith's college coach and new Lions OC Jim Colletto have ties together and have even used some of the same plays in their offensive systems. This should bode well for Smith, plus it also suggests that the Lions have major plans for him, beginning this season. My 2nd choice would be Darren McFadden, who should be the main contributor to Greg Knapp's always improving rushing offense. McFadden could have several roles in the offense and should be a big fantasy threat with such versatility.
Training Camp Battles
Pick one training camp battle, or two if you feel ambitious, and tell why it has particular interest from a fantasy perspective.
Colin Dowling: While it may be a footnote to many fans, the Titans receiving battle is going to be interesting. For starters, the team will have a ton of receivers in camp and none of them have really proven to be starter, much less superstar, material. It is as possible that rookie Lavelle Hawkins or Mike Williams will have 100 catches as it is that Paul Williams will lead the team in receptions. Maybe there isn't a lot of value in that for fantasy folks, especially this season. But at some juncture in the near future, Mike Heimerdinger, Jeff Fisher, and Vince Young are going to turn someone from this motley crew in to a quality wide receiver. My money is on Mike Williams, Hawkins, and Brandon Jones (in that order) much more than Justin Gage, Roydell Williams, Paul Williams, Chris Davis or Moulds.
Jeff Haseley: Washington WR corps -- could a rookie WR lead the way or will Santana Moss lead by example and show the young guys how it's done? Santana Moss has had some very good years and some not so good years. Does he have another good year in him still? Will Malcolm Kelly or Devin Thomas be another Anquan Boldin and have a strong rookie year? The possibility that one of the rookie WRs has a big year is pretty high, simply because there is not much depth for it to be anyone else. If Jason Campbell continues to excel, which I think he will, someone will have to make plays in the passing game. It can't all be Santana Moss and Chris Cooley. I see one of the rookies rising to the occasion this year. I'm not sure which one, but if I had to make a choice, it would be Malcolm Kelly.
Cecil Lammey: One of the biggest battles that I will be watching closely is in Carolina. DeAngelo Williams versus Jonathan Stewart. We are going to see two first-round RBs battle it out for John Fox's favor. I personally think Williams should have been starting over DeShaun Foster. Foster is now in San Francisco, and Williams will have an experience edge over the rookie from Oregon.
Out of the two backs, I like Stewart better because he is a more powerful back. DeAngelo has a lot of heart, but he's not best served pounding it between the tackles. He's not limited inside, like Jerome Harrison, but he's not going to make anyone remember Stephen Davis. Williams is familiar with the offense, but I think Stewart wins this battle.
Stewart is a determined runner that is tough to bring down with his hard-charging style. He's pretty fast, and he can get to top speed in a hurry. However, he is a one speed back. When he gets to full speed there is no 2nd gear. It will also be interesting to see how Stewart runs out of a traditional offense. More RBs are coming from the spread offense in college, where the reads are easier and the holes are bigger. I would like to see Stewart become more patient, and maybe save a little of his burst for the 2nd level of the defense.
In the end, this is John Fox and I have no faith in the man to get this right. I hope Stewart just tears it up and makes it an easy decision for Fox. A large part of Stewart's performance will depend on how he's rebounded from the toe surgery that gave certain teams pause when considering the talented Duck.
If Stewart and Williams are neck and neck this could turn into a full blown RBBC. Fox may determine that it's best to use both backs, which means their individual fantasy value will take a hit.
I am very excited about this Panthers offense, so long as Jake Delhomme can stay healthy. The WR corps has some new (and old) weapons, and this offense could end up surprising some. If one back emerges and the split is more 70/30 than 50/50 it could make for a very nice RB2 that you can draft a little later.
Mark Wimer: That is the one I'm watching closely, too, as I lived in Charlotte when they were awarded the Panthers' franchise and so they have a special place in my heart. I'd love to see the 70/30 split in favor of a healthy Stewart and think that would be the best fit for the Carolina offense. We'll see how he performs when the rubber hits the road in Carolina.
Another interesting dynamic is out in Denver, regarding the Bronco's #2 WR. Keary Colbert, Brandon Stokley and Darrell Jackson are all in the mix there. If Brandon Marshall has complications crop up from his badly cut-up arm or his ongoing, multiple legal issues, we could be looking at one of those 3 guys being the top pass catcher for Jay Cutler this year. I think there is some serious upside potential for whichever of Colbert/Stokley/Jackson ends up being the #2, and I'll likely throw the dice on one or another with a late-round flyer-type fantasy pick when the opportunity presents itself in various drafts. Personally, I'm pulling for Stokley to put together a solid run at the position; we'll see if he has enough gas left in his tank for another season in the sun.
Jeff Haseley: The San Francisco QB battle is definitely one of the bigger question marks entering camp. It is completely up for grabs and for all we know Kyle Wright could be the guy. This really bears looking into, because Martz's history with passing offenses suggests that the 49ers (yes the 49ers) could have a top 15 passing offense in 2008. If that's the case, someone is going to benefit. If there is ever a place to find a diamond in the rough, it's the 49ers QB position this year. My gut says Shaun Hill.
Will Grant: Arizona QB battle between Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart. The winner of this battle is in the driver seat for a 4000 yard, 25 TD season, with arguably the best 1-2 punch at WR with Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Leinart is the assumed starter, but he has not been able to prove he can hold onto the spot. Last season he looked terrible before eventually ending up on IR after just five games. Warner is a seasoned veteran who is on the downside of his career. He can still play though, and is hungry to prove the he can still get it done. Arizona has a solid chance to make a playoff run this season if they can get things together. They were 8-8 last season, but finished strong winning 6 of their last 8 games. Their division is weak, and if they can beat Seattle, the Cardinals will have a shot. This will put even more pressure on whoever wins the starting job, and make the decision that much harder for the coaching staff. This will be a battle all they way up to the start of the season.
Jeff Pasquino: With several good ones mentioned already, I'll look to my back yard and say the Ravens QB battle will be one to watch. With impacts to TE Todd Heap, WRs Mark Clayton, Derrick Mason (and even Demetrius Williams), the selection of the starter will be a big decision. Kyle Boller has the most experience, but new head coach John Harbaugh may be ready to hand over the team to either second year player Troy Smith or their first round pick this year (and my personal favorite) Joe Flacco. Whoever it is, as long as their isn't indecision with the choice the receivers should all be better off than in 2007 with Steve McNair struggling most of the season. Willis McGahee should also get an uptick in production if the passing game gets off the ground for the Ravens, as the defenses will then have to play a more balanced scheme.
Marc Levin: Miami RB: Ronnie Brown's recovery versus Ricky Williams' return. Both are tremendous stories in their own right, but pit them against each other for the starting role and some juicy camp battles should emerge.
Anthony Borbely: I am very interested in the battle to be the Saints #2 WR. It appears that either David Patten or Robert Meachem will start opposite Marques Colston. The winner will have some fantasy value in this offense. Drew Brees has thrown for 4400+ yards for the past two seasons. Colston and Reggie Bush will get their share, not to mention Jeremy Shockey, but there is still a lot to go around. Both Patten and Meachem can likely be drafted relatively late, and if you can draft the one who wins the job, you could have a fantasy producer for cheap. I think it's a toss up, but I give a slight edge to Patten.
Sigmund Bloom: New England's #3 WR is more important than you think. Jabar Gaffney was able to post 3 games of over 5 catches/80 yards and 4 TD in the role from weeks 12-16 last year after he passed Donte Stallworth on the depth chart. Gaffney is back to defend his spot from 2006 2nd round pick Chad Jackson, whose 2007 was over before it started because of an ACL tear. This may be Jackson's last chance to prove he was worth the top 40 pick two years ago, and he has approached the offseason like a man possessed. Gaffney already showed that the #3 can produce in New England's "conventional" offense, but if Welker or Randy Moss go down with an injury, the winner of this camp battle could be one of the biggest surprises of 2008.
Marc Levin: Good point, Sigmund. Gaffney is a nice player and a good value.
Jeff Pasquino: One more to mention is the QB battle for the New York Jets. The Jets want Kellen Clemens to win that job, but Chad Pennington just won't go away. New York has two good fantasy wideouts in Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, so whoever can get them the ball effectively will have good stats and could also boost both receivers into effective fantasy WR2 options, especially in PPR leagues. As in Baltimore, a solid passing game will also bleed over into good numbers for the Jets' feature tailback, Thomas Jones.
Jeff Haseley: The Houston RB battle is another intriguing scenario. I personally don't think Ahman Green is the best RB on the team and I surely don't think his health will last. The Houston running game with the combination of Gary Kubiak and former Broncos colleague and good friend Alex Gibbs calling the plays is definitely something to watch. My gut tells me Steve Slaton will surprise people, but it's anyone's guess who will be the main producer at RB for the Texans. Whoever it is I think will have a very good season possibly reaching 1200+ yards rushing.
Who Will Be . . . ?
Who will be the first backup QB to see extensive action?
Jason Wood: That depends if you consider Troy Smith a backup or not. I suspect he'll be the Week One starter, but most fantasy owners would probably think of Smith as a backup in Baltimore right now. If you already consider Smith the odds on favorite, my next vote would go to Shaun Hill. He'll start more games, and be much more successful than Alex Smith this year.
Jeff Haseley: Kurt Warner. I think it's just a matter of time before Whisenhunt and company see how much they are leaving on the table with Kurt Warner. He is statistically, mentally and professionally a better QB than Leinart. Arizona will soon realize that Matt Leinart is not their future.
Will Grant: Kyle Orton. There will be a revolving door at QB this season for the Bears. No QB will be safe unless they are winning, and I don't see that happening a lot.
Jeff Pasquino: Tough call here, but if you view Kurt Warner as a backup, that's my choice. A second selection would be Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan if Baltimore or Atlanta decide not to hand over the keys to a rookie in Week 1.
Mark Wimer: My vote goes to Sage Rosenfels, as Matt Schaub has yet to take any contact in workouts (he was in no-contact, shorts-only drills this spring). If Schaub isn't 100% by training camp, Rosenfels could end up week 1 starter. Even if Schaub is the starter come September, it may be only a matter of time before he goes down and Rosenfels steps in. Schaub hasn't looked too durable to date.
Jeff Tefertiller: Shaun Hill will get his opportunity early in the year to show what he can do. My sleeper is Pennington. He should surpass Clemens early in the season.
Marc Levin: I think the first backup QB to see significant action this season will be whoever ends up number two in Miami. If McCown wins the starting job, Beck will see playing time early - and vice versa.
Anthony Borbely: Unless Matt Ryan begins the season as a starter, he will be the first backup to start.
Who will be the first team out of playoff contention?
Jason Wood: San Francisco. I think the wheels come off in SF this year and everyone gets blown out at year end. They had a horrible line last year and are adding a coach that turns average pass blocking units into woeful ones. Alex Smith and Shaun Hill are going to be POUNDED and I don't think that defense will stop many people.
Jeff Haseley: Tough question here. I think Baltimore will go through some growing
pains with a new QB and rookie coach. Cincinnati is another team that could
struggle, but I think their offense will win them some games.
Will Grant: Atlanta. Ryan is good but he's not that good.
Jeff Pasquino: Chicago Bears. Nothing looks right as far as the direction of that team. The only thing that could keep them technically in the hunt is that the NFC may not have six strong teams this season. If I had to pick an AFC franchise, I don't hold much hope for Kansas City to be effective this year.
Jeff Tefertiller: Atlanta's defense is a mess and will be out of the hunt from the beginning. The Chiefs should be bad as well. These are the two teams I expect to be worse than even the Detroit Lions.
Marc Levin: Oakland Raiders. There are too many good teams in the AFC in general, but especially in the AFC West. I don't see a rookie RB and inexperienced QB overcoming the problems they had up front on both sides of the ball. More of the same for the Raiders in '08.
Anthony Borbely: Atlanta is already out of contention. That is a terrible football team.
Who will be the starting San Francisco QB in week five?
Jason Wood: If the line is as bad as I fear, SF could be on their 3rd QB by then. But my honest answer is Shaun Hill.
Jeff Haseley: Shaun Hill. He may even get the job in training camp. Martz doesn't care if you were a 1st round pick or 7th round pick. He'll go with the better talent and the QB that grasps and executes his system the best. In my opinion, this is where Shaun Hill excels over Alex Smith.
Will Grant: Another vote for Shaun Hill.
Jeff Pasquino: Martz tends to get QBs hit quite a bit in his scheme, so if
Hill starts in Week 1 that may not mean he survives for 4 games.
Mark Wimer: Yeah, they may be on Trent Dilfer by week five - although they'd
have to work out a deal for him with ESPN, maybe by sending Isaac Bruce to SportsCenter.
Seriously, I think Alex Smith will be under center week 1, but it very well
could be Shaun Hill or even J.T. O'Sullivan by week 5. The glass is 3/4 empty
at this position in San Francisco...
Jeff Tefertiller: Shaun Hill played well last season. Even though many in the 49er organization want Smith to start and play well, week 5 should be long enough for him to throw away the opportunity.
Marc Levin: Alex Smith. I don't buy any of the hype about a battle there.
Anthony Borbely: I think the light will go on for Alex Smith under the tutelage of Martz. Barring injury, I think he will start all season.
Who will be the top rookie wide receiver?
Jason Wood: I'm torn between the Rams' Donnie Avery and the Bills' James Hardy. Hardy would be my clear bet but he appears to be a bit of a head case. So I'll hedge with Avery. Even though many NFL fans don't know his name, we can't lose sight that he was the top WR selected and the Rams have a desperate need for his services. Torry Holt remains elite, but Drew Bennett is a possession receiver not suited to start for a competitive NFL franchise.
Jeff Haseley: I think one of the Redskins rookies has the best chance. Out of the two, I like Malcolm Kelly more. I'll say him. I would not be surprised if Lavelle Hawkins finds a groove with Vince Young and the Titans.
Will Grant: Earl Bennett in Chicago. Pure Volume will get him into the running early. The Bears are going to throw the ball a lot. He'll be the number two or number three wideout on the team and will usually draw the single coverage.
Jeff Pasquino: The choice for me is relatively easy - James Hardy. Buffalo has no real WR2 to start opposite of Lee Evans, so Hardy will have plenty of chances to show what he can do in training camp and work his way to starting. QB Trent Edwards also looks like he will start to show good numbers this season, so my pick is Hardy.
Mark Wimer: Echoing Jeff's thoughts, I like James Hardy due to his opportunities in Buffalo. The Bills have needed at bona fide #2 there for a long while, and he's got a good shot to step into that role over Josh Reed or Roscoe Parrish. Hardy's path into the starting lineup is relatively clear (if he'll stop pulling guns on people and stay clear of further off-field incidents, that is).
Jeff Tefertiller: The Redskins' Devin Thomas has the skills to be a top wideout. He is one of just a few drafted receivers that are expected to start early on. Early Doucet is the darkhorse for me. Any injury to Boldin or Fitz and Doucet can crack the Top 25 WRs.
Anthony Borbely: I am not a fan of this rookie class of WRs, but I think the Bears' Earl Bennett will have the best rookie season.
Who will be the winner of the NFC East?
Jason Wood: I would have my season tickets revoked if I didn't say the Eagles. Honestly, I suspect it will be the most competitive division from top to bottom again in 2008 [in the NFC] and it wouldn't shock me if Dallas, New York or Philadelphia won. Washington is the only team I can't see being a playoff contender and yet, I don't expect them to be horrible either.
Jeff Haseley: In a tough battle, I see Dallas coming out with a 10-6 record to win the Division.
Will Grant: Cowboys. But it won't be by much. As Jason points out, Washington is the weakest team of the lot, and they always play tough within their division. Expect a slugfest all season. If a team can go 4-2 in the division, they'll probably win it.
Jeff Pasquino: I think this one comes down to either Dallas or Philadelphia. Their two matchups will decide quite a bit, and it looks like Week 17 could decide it all. The Giants had a great run in January last year, but I don't think that they improved much in the offseason and in fact lost a few good players - either to retirement (Strahan), free agency (safety Gibril Wilson), or trade (Shockey). Washington is still figuring things out and is at least a year away.
Mark Wimer: The Dallas Cowboys.
Jeff Tefertiller: Dallas by a nose. This is a competitive division that will be hard-fought this season.
Marc Levin: Sorry Jason, the defending champs. The New York Giants.
Anthony Borbely: Dallas.
Who will be the starting RB in Denver to start the season? Week 9?
Jason Wood: Selvin Young will start the season unless he really screws up in training camp. As for Week 9? I'll go ahead and say Ryan Torain but I have zero confidence in projecting the Denver RB situation. It's a mess because we just don't know what Shanahan is going to do week in, week out.
Jeff Haseley: Week one, Selvin Young. Week nine, Ryan Torain. Just following previous seasons here. Shanahan likes the rookies.
Will Grant: Selvin Young - Both answers. In week 1 he'll be the starter but will be injured or benched along the way. By week 9 he will be back in the starting lineup.
Jeff Pasquino: Can this be multiple choice? Selvin Young, Ryan Torain, Andre Hall, Michael Pittman..... OK Pittman is the only one I will throw out of this group. I think Young is your starter but it is a big committee approach. I expect Young to get about 50-60% of the work, Torain about 25%, with Pittman and Hall grabbing the rest.
Mark Wimer: Selvin Young, Selvin Young. However, this looks like a RBBC to me with Young simply being the starter who gets a majority of the carries, but not enough work to land in the top 10 among his peers by year's end.
Jeff Tefertiller: Andre Hall - all year. Selvin Young is a change of pace back and Torain is coming off of a foot injury. Hall is the sleeper in Denver.
Marc Levin: Selvin Young and Selvin Young. Until they add someone of note to compete with him, I think Shanahan will stick with Young at least as his starter as long as Young is not injured.
Anthony Borbely: Selvin Young will be the lead back in a season-long RBBC.
Great work here guys. With training camps all starting up, we'll have a lot to keep our eyes on. I know we're all looking forward to it. Until we meet back here again, enjoy your summers!