Trader Joe's - Week 9

Posted 10/29 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

Here we are in Week 9, the second to last week of NFL byes, with the Panthers, Saints, Chargers and Niners all taking a much needed rest. Only those four teams are off this week, but they do carry some crucial players. Steve Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Drew Brees and Frank Gore are all creating one more week of lineup gaps for owners, who all want to survive this week and make a playoff push. Fortunately four other teams are back in action to help out in some places. I'm sure everyone will be glad to have all 32 teams back in action once again in Week 11.

As the calendar turns yet another page, hopefully you post-Halloween lineup doesn't look too scary. The leaves are falling and so are NFL players, and we are talking about injury deals in this week's column. Other topics include what to do about future keepers and how to get the most from your roster to try and win that league title.

As for Keeper and Dynasty leagues, two different views are emerging in leagues, classified as the "haves" and the "have-nots". If you are in the "have", you are likely a strong team and making a run at the playoffs, but others that are "have nots" are looking already at next year. Fire sales and draft picks will be on the market up to and even on your league trading deadline, so look for beneficial trades all the way to that point. Trading a veteran to a "have" in exchange for a future value (player or pick) can be a "win-win" situation.

Once again this year we will keep the standard format. The questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum can be on any topic within your league, but I would advise you that the more general the question, the more applicable it becomes to everyone and thus it is more beneficial to all. The "Who should I trade" questions are still welcome (as long as they follow the format outlined below), but if you'd like to see your question in my column, strategy and/or trade philosophy is highly recommended.

For Example

Team / league specific question:

"I can keep three players. I have Brian Westbrook, LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Terrell Owens. Who do you recommend?"

The better way to generalize the question, yet still get your answer:

"I have three Top 10 running backs (Westbrook, Tomlinson, Larry Johnson) and a Top 10 WR (Terrell Owens), but I can only keep three. Is it better to keep three running backs, or should I keep a top shelf WR and two backs?"

I would request that you include the following regarding your trade questions:

Type of league (Dynasty, Keeper, Contract, Auction, Redraft, other)
Starting Roster (positions you play each week)
Scoring format
Number of teams in your league
Roster size
Regarding keepers - if you ask a "who should I keep" question, please note the "penalty", if any, for keeping a player (i.e. a draft pick)
Regarding a trade - post the other team(s) roster(s) of the teams with which you are negotiating
Any other pertinent info that would help me to help you

Let's get to some trade talks. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here:

Question 1: Dealing for injury
Question 2: Cracking your lineup
Question 3: Hidden trade value
Question 4: Keepers - Win now, worry later
Question 5: Trade within a trade (offer)

So let's get to it.

Question 1

The first question this week comes from "hostile", who is looking at a deal for the injured Reggie Bush:

Hey Jeff,

I have a Reggie Bush trade offer for you to chew on.

12 team redraft, start QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1PK, 1DST - 1pt/10yds rush/rec, NO PPR.

Current team: Cutler/Garrard/Addai/Turner/Chris Johnson/Edge/Hightower/Rhodes/TO/Wayne/Cotchery/Engram/Shockey/Kaeding/Chargers.

I have been offered Reggie Bush for Edge/Hightower.

I am in 3rd place overall at 5-2, 1st place in my division (3-0 divisionally). This offer comes from inside the division from the 4-3 team just behind me. He has SJax/Bush/Norwood/Rudi as his backs. If he makes this deal, it gives him life to cling to.

Cutler has been playing poorly as of late, and is now hurt. I am getting no production from my WRs lately. Turner/CJ/Edge are my healthy RBs. I have dropped the last two games in a row, but I feel I need some help for down the stretch.

I think this trade gives me good depth for the playoffs, especially with NO playing DET in Week 16. However, in the short term, I think it could hurt me as I take on another injured RB. Edge plays STL twice (Wk 9 and 14) and has a *very* nice schedule over Weeks 9, 10, and 11.

Bush could only miss 2 games though - Week 8, bye, Week 10, and be back for the Week 11 game against Houston.

Does this trade make sense for me? I would love to clear out the roster spot that Hightower is eating up, and do a DSTBC or pick up another TE to cover Shockey's bye or possible re-injury.

What do you think? I'm stuck on this one...

So here was my reply:

Hi hostile,

At 5-2, I'm thinking that 3-3 will get you into the playoffs. That's 8-5 (guessing 13 games) and you should be able to manage that with Reggie Bush on your bench.

Edge/Hightower are a nice pair, but you need studs to win the championship. I think this is a "go for the win" move and one I'd roll the dice on if I was 5-2. Rhodes or Addai plus Chris Johnson as your 2 RBs until Bush is healthy should be fine. Even Turner warrants a look to start. You can handle this move - so make it.

Good luck.

The season goes quickly at this point of the year. There are only a few games left, which can benefit a team that has a strong record. Making a deal for a player that could return for your fantasy playoffs and push your team over the top is risky, but sometimes that is what wins championships.

Question 2

Our next question comes from "Lambert", who is struggling with an offer to potentially improve his lineup:

Jeff,

I'm looking for your advice on a possible trade. Basically, I'm trying to get rid of Kyle Orton to boost value at another position. I won't be playing Orton unless Rodgers gets hurt, and I have Delhomme for depth if that happens. The other guy has tentatively suggested Orton for TENN defense & either Eddie Royal or Kevin Curtis. I'm thinking TENN is a nice upgrade at DEF, but I'm wondering: (1) is the deal good enough value for Orton that I should take it, and (2) If it is a good deal, should I go with TENN & Royal or TENN & Curtis? Royal seems like the safer pick, but Curtis seems like the guy with noticeably more upside. I'm wondering if Curtis might be better given that Royal isn't likely to make my starting lineup (other than as a bye fill-in) whereas Curtis could conceivably do that.

My team

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Kyle Orton, Jake Delhomme, Marc Bulger
RB: Frank Gore, Brandon Jacobs, Michael Turner. Derrick Ward, Ricky Williams
WR: Greg Jennings, Lee Evans, Santana Moss, Antonio Bryant
TE: Owen Daniels
K: Prater, Vinatieri
DEF: Buffalo

His team

QB: Carson Palmer, Brad Johnson, JT O'Sullivan
RB: Kevin Smith, Cedric Benson, Maurice Morris, Le'Ron McClain, Chester Taylor, Ray Rice
WR: Anquan Bolden, Randy Moss, Derrick Mason, Kevin Curtis, Eddie Royal
TE: Bo Scaife
K: Suisham
DEF: Tennessee

14 team league -- We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 RB/WR flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF
Standard scoring (no penalties for fumbles/INTs)

Thanks in advance for your help!

Lots going on here. Let's read my response:

Hi Lambert,

Big thing to note here (as you already know) is that in bigger leagues (14+ teams) QBs are worth way more. Having two starters is hard enough, and you're fortunate to have three.

I'd rather have Kevin Curtis in either long TD leagues or non-PPR. Only in PPR would I prefer Royal.

I think you convinced both yourself and me with the statement that Curtis might crack your lineup but Royal won't. With a good December schedule for Curtis as well (NYG / CLE / WASH Weeks 14-16) I think it's clear you take TEN and Curtis and roll with it.

Good luck.

First off, as I mentioned before, QBs are worth more in bigger leagues. That is an important thing to remember. As for this deal, I think Lambert's first instincts are solid in that he already identified the key part of the move - which players have the best shot of cracking his fantasy lineup. Adding value is great, but points do you no good on your bench.

Question 3

Question 3 comes from "arlingtonpark27", who is working on a trade that on the surface is for Tomlinson, but there is much more on the table:

I'm in a 12-team re-draft league with my brother-in-law. He has struggled in the league for many years and I decided to help him this year. It has been a challenge as we are having issues with injury (Tom Brady, Maroney, Reggie Bush). However, we are still working to make the play-offs. We are currently 3-4 and in 4th in our division. However, after the division winners (3), the three teams with the most points scored also make the play-offs and we are currently 6th overall and would make the play-offs.

Our rosters consist of 16 players and we must start 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 Defense each week. Scoring is as follows:

QB: 6 pts per TD, 1 pt per 5 completions, -2 pts per INT and basically 1 pt per 50 yds passing
RB: 6 pts per TD, 1 pt per 5 rushes, 1 PPR, -2 pts per fumble lost and basically 1 pt per 25 yds rushing
WR: 6 pts per TD, 1 PPR, -2 pts per fumble lost and basically 1 pt per 33 yds receiving

Our roster:

QB: Eli, Cassel, Bulger
RB: Reggie Bush, R. Grant, F. Taylor, L. Washington, R. Torain, P. Thomas
WR: Marshall, Wayne, Camarillo
TE: Daniels
K: Kris Brown
D: Minnesota, Oakland

We were trying to move Reggie straight-up for LT, but that didn't work. The LT owner is 4-3 and above us in our division, but below us in points. The LT owner proposed the following deal:
Eli, Reggie & Wayne for LT, V. Jackson & one of his QBs

LT owner roster:

QB: Delhomme, Hasselbeck, M. Ryan
RB: LT, McGahee, Parker, Me Moore
WR: S. Smith (Car), Evans, Bowe & V. Jackson
TE: Carlson, Gates
K: Elam, Prater
D: Tampa Bay

Should I counter with Eli, Reggie, Wayne for LT, Bowe & Delhomme?

I doesn't look like we will win our division, so we need to score points to make the play-offs regardless of record. With Reggie out around 4 weeks, our RBs are a mess, so having LT would help especially with his schedule. I also like Delhomme's schedule better than Eli's and would like to upgrade the WR position with Bowe as he is reliable and consistent than V. Jackson.

Your thoughts on the above counter deal and if we should even make the move are appreciated.

Thanks!!!

And here is my reply:

Hi arlingtonpark27,

There's no question here - I take the deal.... and it isn't because of LT2.

Delhomme is the centerpiece here. Jake has AZ, bye, @OAK, DET, @ATL and @GB before your playoffs (I assume Weeks 14-16).

Your scoring system looks to be all about QB and RB with WRs minimized. You get 3 points for 100 yards receiving. That's nothing, especially when you get 1 PPR.

I take this deal and run. Tomlinson certainly helps you and I think Bowe will outscore Wayne, but Jake makes you a contender.

Good luck.

Misdirection is a wonderful thing. Both teams are focused on the big name in this deal - LaDainian Tomlinson - but the real prize here is Jake Delhomme. Analyzing the deal for what seems to be a "throw-in" player to the mix can make all the difference in the world. If everyone is focused on the bigger name in a deal, the secondary player or players that get tossed into the offer can really improve a trade.

Question 4

Next we have an interesting question comes in from "toppshelff", who is trying to win this year but is also protective of his future keepers in his Keeper League:

Hey Jeff, appreciate your thoughts on this.

In a 14 team league, start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1flex... 0.5 PPR this season, 1 PPR next season. We must keep 4 players at season end. Draft goes from worst to first for rounds 1-3, then serpentine...

My team:

QB: Cutler, Rodgers (lucked out draft day)
RB: LT, Portis, Gore, McFadden, Benson
WR: SSmith, Calvin, Cotchery, Ocho
TE: Daniels
K: Prater
D: Jax

I've received an offer from the guy in 3rd-to-last place.

I give: LT, Rodgers, Ocho
He gives: Marshall, Delhomme, 2009 1st, 2nd and 5th

I'm tempted... I might sub Cutler for Rodgers as Rodgers has a nice playoff run. With my depth, an extra early draft pick next season could let me recoup whoever I need to cut at season end. However, I do trade away LT for this year's playoff run.

What do you think and how would you evaluate this deal?

Great question. Here was my answer:

Hi toppshelff,

Interesting - a league undergoing a scoring change.

I'd evaluate it on both levels - does this help you this year, and how does it set you up for next?

You have a number of potential keepers - I see four RBs and two WRs that fit the label of Top 50 players in 2009 on that list (McFadden is a stretch, but likely on that list). You'll have to trade some of them, but I would focus on getting the best team possible to win now and then deal from strength in the off-season. I wouldn't be in a rush to help the competition to beat you in this year's playoffs.

If you get a Top 3 pick next year, that's great - but there will be enough depth such that getting that pick vs. your first pick. You're looking to move LT2 for a top three rookie (in what is starting to be discussed as a weak class) or a Top 70 veteran that isn't kept. I don't think that it is worth giving up Tomlinson and his keeper rights either.

You may be able to trade Tomlinson for a Top 6 pick next year since you cannot keep all the players you want, yet that team (with a Top 6 pick) likely won't get a shot at him if you let him go. Work those deals in the off-season and keep the valuable players you have now.

Good luck.

Keeper leagues are very tricky, especially during the season. You build the best team possible prior to Week 1 to try and win this year, but every trade offer that comes down the pike has the potential to mess up your keeper values. I am always one to go for it in a given year (within reason) and then worry about the future in the future. There's a reason that players are on sale and picks are offered between September and November. Have confidence that you can work your off-season wonders after you win your league this year.

Question 5

This column comes and goes quickly, as here we are again at Question 5. It is a good one to close on, as it works on the "Trade within a Trade" evaluation method that I always mention every season. Let's look at this new wrinkle from "mcmill3":

Hey Jeff -
I'm in a 12 team redraft, start 1QB, 2WR, 2RB, 1 Flex (WR/RB), 1TE, K, D.

My receivers are weak, really weak. I started the season losing the first 4 and have rebounded to win the last 3, hopefully this week will be the 4th. I believe the depth of my RBs has carried me but it's only a matter of time before my lack of WRs catches up.

QB: Schaub, Delhomme
RB: Lynch, Slaton, Jacobs, Lendale, Ahman Green
WR: Holmes, Vincent Jackson, Kevin Walters, Josh Morgan
TE: Winslow, LJ Smith
D: Minnesota
K: Nedney

I've been offered Warner and Braylon for Schaub and Slaton. Not too bad considering the tough upcoming schedule Houston has.

I've also been offered Roddy White for Slaton.

What are your thoughts? Stay put or upgrade at WR?

Thanks.

My initial response:

Hi mcmill3,

I definitely agree with your view of your team.

You didn't, however, make mention of whether this is a PPR league or not. If not, 3 RBs are clearly your starters on a weekly basis and that can easily mask two weak WRs.

I would take either deal but I think Roddy White is a better option right now than Edwards.

Good luck.

His clarification:

Thanks Jeff. This is a PPR league.

So you say yes to me trading Schaub/Slaton for Warner/Braylon or just Slaton for Roddy White?

My final answer:

I'd hold Schaub, because (1) he has a great schedule and (2) I don't like Braylon as much as Roddy White.

The first deal has you getting a weaker WR for Slaton, so I'd do the Roddy White / Slaton trade.

Good luck.

This is a "trade within a trade" - but within two different offers. That's new, and I like it. When you get two trade offers that contain the same players, just write them down side-by-side and take a look at both of them at once. If you are getting a better player at a cheaper price or if you can just look at each deal as the difference of the two deals, that's a great way to look at it.
To simplify the example a bit, let's say you have an offer of "Player A" for your "Player B". The two offers are:

Player A + Player C for Player B and Player D
Player E for Player B

If you think that Player E is better than either Player A or Player C, you have to take the second deal as Player D doesn't buy you a thing.

So that will do it for the Week 9 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next week, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References

Trader Joe's from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.
The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino. First introduced here.
Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.