Trader Joe's - Week 17

Posted 12/24 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome one and all to "Trader Joe's", the trading outpost here at Footballguys.com. Over the course of this season this will be the place where we talk about trading strategy and trade dynamics. All types of leagues will be discussed, but given that so many fantasy football leagues are redraft in nature we will focus primarily on redraft leagues.

I will be your usual host and respond to your questions and comments as quickly as possible. The best questions I receive in the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com will likely also appear in this column, whereupon I will add more commentary.

Just like the seasons, this column will be evolving throughout all 17 weeks of the NFL season. From the first weeks of the year and then to midseason and onward to the playoffs, we will address the timing of the trade market and how the dynamics of the season also play an important part in trading.

Here we are entering NFL Week 17, which means that most fantasy football leagues are finished - right? Well, not so fast my friends. Some of us fantasy football fanatics go year-round in this hobby, playing in either Keeper or Dynasty Leagues. That is our focus here in the final installment of Trader Joe's for 2008. While we are still taking trade questions regarding all types of trades and league formats over at Trader Joe's, in this week's column we are going to be taking another look at leagues that go multiple years. Week 15's column was the first part of this discussion, as we addressed many questions regarding in-season trading. We then built upon that foundation and look at the more complex year-round leagues that exist in fantasy football, starting with Keeper Leagues in Week 16. Finally here in Week 17 we will be focused upon helping out the Dynasty League players as the synopsis will look at our best thoughts and ideas for the deepest of the annual leagues.

Also, for those of you who can't get enough of Dynasty and Keeper League information let me point out another article I wrote last week called FBG Futures. It is a look at the Top 100-110 players for 2009 from a Keeper perspective, with each position broken into tiers (from "A" to "C+" letter grades). Since each league is different, you cannot compare a "B" QB to a "B" WR or RB, but hopefully this article will give you some insight looking forward towards next year. As always, if you can't find what you need or want, drop me an e-mail here at Footballguys (pasquino@footballguys.com) and I will see what we can do for you to get your football fix satisfied.

We have a lot to get cover this week, and I think most everyone knows the format for the questions, so let's jump right in to the Dynasty League Summary week. In an effort to expedite finding a particular scenario of interest to all of our readers, I will number each question and provide a brief synopsis here, and also mark the earlier weekly column in which the more detailed example can be found:

Week 2, Question 3: Hold On To Those Rookies
Week 2, Question 6: Rebuilding A Dynasty
Week 4, Question 2: Just say "Yes"
Week 4, Question 5: Dealing players for future picks
Week 5, Question 5: Two good questions
Week 6, Question 5: A great trade followed by a weak one can make a team better
Week 7, Question 1: Don't push for balance
Week 7, Question 4: The old age holds true....
Week 8, Question 5: Dynasty - Downside risk
Week 10, Question 3: Be careful if you counter
Week 10, Question 4: Future Values
Week 10, Question 5: Dynasty deals from many perspectives
Week 11, Question 1: Dynasty offensive player vs. IDP values
Week 12, Question 5: Dynasty: Trading Pro Bowlers For Prospects
Week 13, Question 4: Overpaying With Depth To Fill A Need
Week 13, Question 5: Dynasty Leagues With Salary Caps / Keeper Style Decisions
Week 14, Question 4: A Proven Player Vs. A Draft Pick
Week 14, Question 5: Future Draft Pick Values

So let's get to it.

Week 2, Question 4

Wide receivers have such a diminished value in non-PPR leagues, it is unreal. Just take away 75-100 points from an elite WR, that's all. Collect running backs like you would collect autographed jerseys, and part with the best ones just about as easily.

Week 2, Question 5

Every deal in a Keeper League is about two things at once - this year and the future. When making a trade, you have to decide if this helps your team now, down the line, or both. That view is a different mindset than in regular redraft, so it has to be in the back of your head every time you consider a move in a league like this. The goal is not only to win, but to also collect the best possible keepers for the coming seasons.

Week 2, Question 6

When you look at Dynasty leagues, you have to take the long view at times. If you think that your team is unable to realistically compete, you have the dreaded "R" Year, otherwise known as a rebuilding season. It is okay if you admit it to yourself and can press on, but know what you are getting into when you make this judgment and commit to it. Every move after that should be with a timeline in mind as to when you can compete. Set a realistic goal of competing in two seasons and decide what you must do to achieve it. It is possible that you will get there faster and be better next year, but do not lose sight of the two-year plan as you may set yourself back with a bad deal for aging players.

Week 4, Question 2

Here is a case where you just have to agree on the deal. Don't hesitate too much if you have a great offer. Check the FBG News and the Shark Pool just in case the stud in question was in a car crash or indicted or something, but other than that grab those great offers and run.

Week 4, Question 5

This may surprise some of you who don't know my general Dynasty philosophy, but I am not a huge fan of future draft picks. I understand that the way to build a true and dominant Dynasty team comes from drafting the Larry Fitzgeralds and Adrian Petersons of the world, but I tend to lean towards safer avenues for talent. I would rather have that older veteran who may or may not give me a few years versus gambling on a lottery ticket of a draft choice. Not every pick is a loser, but it is hard to go against a proven talent, especially a young one.

Week 5, Question 5

Pretty straightforward here, but do note that there are two good techniques involved in this question. First we have a multi-player deal that is uneven (towards the other team) in number of players. Always ask for the player about to be cut to be traded to you. That way you get first crack at that player, which may represent better value than is available in the free agent / waiver wire pool.

The second point is about marketing. Sometimes it pays to advertise. Send an e-mail or post on your league's message board what you are selling and what you want in return. Now you can see what offers come in - hopefully you get at least two and you can take the best deal. Even better - if you make a deal, now everyone knows that you are a true trader and dealmaker.

Week 6, Question 5

I've done this myself on several occasions. While looking at one particular trade and saying "you got the worst of that one", this goes into "trade stacking" which I've talked about in the past. If the end result of two or three deals gets you to where you wanted to be in the first place, it doesn't matter what happened in between those stages. The end result is what matters. If you like your team, you like your team.

Week 7, Question 5

Bye weeks, short benches, injuries and underperformance all combine to mean one thing - opportunity. When you have a chance to get a big name that has big, big upside - make the move. It'd be hard to imagine getting Edwards so cheaply back in July or August, but prior to the Giants game he was in the bargain bin. Take a look at what other players might be in there as well and go shopping.

Week 8, Question 5

Trading in Dynasty leagues can be difficult. I've long been a proponent of grabbing good players and riding them into the ground - why get rid of them? Now, if you happen upon a player who has high trade value and you don't believe in their long term prospects, you have to "sell high" on him when you can. Don't get caught holding the bag when that player starts to deteriorate in value, as it can come very quickly.

Week 10, Question 3

Trading windows open and close fast. If you get a good offer and think it is fair, take it. Tell the other guy that you appreciate a solid opening offer and thought about a counter, but decided that this was strong enough to make both teams better. Sure you might get more if you haggle, but sometimes you are earning "good trade partner" points by taking a good enough deal and can have that skid greased for a future deal.

Week 10, Question 4

When the NFL season is rolling along, we can sometimes lose perspective on player value for the next season and beyond. That's why you're here - to have some of us give you additional viewpoints on future values. It is always a good idea to read up on not just our rankings and lists, but the reasons behind them. The "Futures" article is a nice, concise and different way to look at the Top 100-110 players in the NFL and compare players at the same position. Suggestions on how to convey our thoughts on different players are always welcome, and that's how articles like that one and "Monopoly" are created. Keep those ideas coming.

Week 10, Question 5

Trading in Dynasty leagues is always tricky, so you really have to assess players and their values going forward in many different ways. Dynasty leagues force you to look at football from the "team" perspective, as football is the ultimate team game. Running backs do not run with success without an offensive line, a complimentary passing game, and also a coach willing to call that player's number on a consistent basis. Look at players with all different angles to make an informed decision.

Week 11, Question 1

Evaluating Dynasty values is hard enough as it is, but throw in IDPs and your head can start to spin. How valuable is a young middle linebacker? What's a comparable offensive player worth? Take a deep breath and understand one basic rule - offensive players are harder to get (and find) than defensive players. True studs in IDP are worth their weight in gold, but odds are much higher in finding waiver wire help on defense than on offense.

Week 12, Question 5

Dynasty trades are always complicated - if they were easy, it wouldn't be so much fun, now would it? Evaluating future considerations is tough. Established veterans who are of Pro Bowl caliber are hard to get, and sometimes they are even harder to give up. You have to make someone really pay well for a big time player and fantasy scorer, because if you trade for future prospects and picks you are gambling. Draft picks are 50/50 propositions no matter what people say, so always keep that in mind when you give up a player for a coin flip in a future draft.

Week 13, Question 4

Sometime giving up depth to fill a need is the best way to go. You may think that one player is worth more than what you are getting back in a deal, but if you're improving your overall lineup then in makes sense. This is how you can "overpay" for a player and still make your team better. Classic "win-win" situations come from these types of maneuvers, plus you also get the added bonus of getting a strong trader reputation of being willing to make good moves and pay well for players you need.

Week 13, Question 5

Leagues in transition are always tricky, but making a move like this can add more fun. There are more decisions to be made and owners have to pay more attention, but it usually results in a better, more entertaining way to play. As for salary caps in general, keep in mind that you only want to pay for proven players that have good longer term value. Wasting money costs you in multiple ways - both by overspending on that player and also not being able to afford someone else. Choose wisely.

Week 14, Question 4

Proven players are always worth more to me than draft picks. While everyone else chases the next Calvin Johnson or Adrian Peterson, I'll gladly take someone who has proven to be not only capable but also that is putting up good numbers on the next level.

Week 14, Question 5

Draft pick future values are one of the hardest things to gauge, which is one reason why I made my Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator. The nice part about it is that it is very customizable, not just for Dynasty but also for redraft as well. Check it out. It takes into account such extra factors as roster size and lineups and also gives the "pick to make even" feature that tells you what pick it would take to make the deal of equal value.

So that will do it for the Week 17 edition of Trader Joe's, and I sincerely hope that I helped some of you owners out there to think about some trades and new ways to improve your team. Until next YEAR, I'll see you at Trader Joe's.

References

Trader Joe's from the Assistant Coach Forum at Footballguys.com.
The Dynasty Draft Pick Calculator, written by Jeff Pasquino. First introduced here.
Tricks of the T.R.A.D.E., written by Jeff Pasquino.