Targeting Tight Ends

Posted 8/24 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

When it comes to picking out NFL tight ends for fantasy purposes, it does not take much to figure out who the top candidates are this season. If you are looking for some late value picks, however, you have come to the right place. What I want to find for all of us here are tight ends that should be getting several targets a game. With five or more balls headed their way each week, they should be able to haul in at least three on average and have a shot at 40-50 yards a week and possibly a touchdown. That may not sound like much, but that works out to be 48 catches and 640-800 yards a year, which would put any TE in the Top 12 last season (provided he scored a few times). Not bad at all.

So what's the plan? I have looked at a way to pick up some valuable tight ends later in fantasy drafts before, but this time I am getting a bit more scientific. Here I will take a look at an overall ADP list and pick out three different types of teams. Oddly enough, I care more about the wide receivers on a given team than about the tight ends. The reasoning is pretty simple - if the quarterback on a given team has limited options, the ball has to go somewhere. What better option than a big guy over the middle?
I broke the 32 NFL teams down and kept the ones that fit into three basic categories:

Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List
Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 50 ADP List
Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30

Here are the results:

Category 1 - Teams with no WRs in the Top 50 ADP List

This may be surprising to some, but there are actually a few teams with absolutely terrible wide receiver options. These are teams that have no one that anyone wants to draft very early at flanker or split end. Despite that, NFL teams never seem to run the ball on every down, so someone has to make a catch now and then. That means that the tight ends on these teams are worth a look. Two teams barely escaped this list (one had a WR at #49, the other at #50), but let's talk about that one team:

Tennessee - Vince Young may not be ranked high for this reason, but it is not the only one. Fantasy owners who looked at Bo Scaife last year for some help know exactly why - the Titans starting wide receivers are more of a trivia question than a fantasy resource. Not much has improved for 2008, so the TE is going to get a lot of targets this season. The one offseason move that Tennessee did make was to bring in former Atlanta Falcon Alge Crumpler, so that makes him a nice value TE to grab late in your draft.

Category 2 - Teams with only 1 WR in the Top 50 ADP List

This group of teams is pretty large (14 NFL teams), but some of them are easily scratched off because either (A) their starting tight end is a top option or because (B) their TE has an ADP lower than Death Valley. Quickly looking over the list, we have to dismiss Kansas City's Tony Gonzalez, the Redskin's Chris Cooley and Jeremy Shockey in New Orleans (Type A), along with the TE options in Atlanta, Buffalo, Miami and Tampa Bay (good luck figuring those situations out - if you care). That leaves six teams to go over, so let's hit it:

Baltimore - Todd Heap is a stud TE when he is healthy, and that is the question again this year. He has been a Top 5 TE several times in his career so if he can go strong most weeks then he is a great target for any QB that the Ravens roll out there this year.

Chicago - This is a unique one. Sure, Devin Hester is a Top 50 guy - at #50. Yeah, that's really solid. The unique part here is that the Bears actually have two TEs in the Top 2 5 ADP list - Greg Olsen and Desmond Clark. Both are value plays and could become solid targets, but with two of the splitting targets the value is diminished.

Denver - The Broncos have Brandon Marshall way up there on the WR ADP list, but keep in mind that he will likely miss 2-3 games to start the year. Tony Scheffler finished strong and could be a nice target in the red zone for Denver - but if he gets to a fast start I would think about trading him away for a Top 5 TE and upgrade your team.

Houston - The Texans had a fist rate passing game last season, but their second WR option is a big question. To add to this, their ground game is close to a disaster so they will be throwing the ball often in Houston. Look for Owen Daniels to have a big year and finish way up on the charts.

NY Giants - The Giants moved Jeremy Shockey to the Saints to get rid of him to some degree, but also this is an endorsement for Kevin Boss. After Plaxico Burress, there is not a rock-solid WR2 on the club. Boss could be a late value pick that can help your fantasy team.

St. Louis - Marc Bulger loves to throw, and Al Saunders is an offensive coordinator who loves to work the tight end position. The departure of Isaac Bruce leaves Randy McMichael with huge upside this season and a great late pick in any fantasy draft.

Category 3 - Teams with 1-2 WRs in the Top 50 ADP List but none in the Top 30

This group of teams is a bit smaller than Category 2, but there are still six teams to discuss. Minnesota still has Vishante Shiancoe, who is more of a spelling test than a fantasy option. Marcedes Lewis is a big question mark this year as well, as is all of Jacksonville, and he remains out of the Top 25 in TE ADP so he is also out of the discussion. That leaves four to go:

Oakland - The Raiders are a tough offense to predict, but as I mentioned in my TEBC, Zach Miller is a good option this season. Take a look at grabbing him late in your draft if you want to try the committee approach with a team that will be throwing often and has questions at wide receivers this year.

Philadelphia - The Eagles are hurting right now at WR with the injuries to both Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown, so the player to capitalize on targets looks to be L.J. Smith. He was also a name to target in my TEBC article, so that's a strong set of reasons to get him later in your draft.

Seattle - The Seahawks are another team hurting with injuries and losses of personnel at wide receiver. Bobby Engram is out for at least three games, and Deion Branch may be out much, much longer. D.J. Hackett is in Carolina, so after Nate Burleson there are a ton of questions. Rookie TEs are rarely a great value, but John Carlson may change all that this year.

San Francisco - Mike Martz comes to the West Coast and brings his high-powered passing game to the 49ers. Sure, the Niners have issues at QB, but Martz has made Kurt Warner a household name, so why can't J.T. O'Sullivan? Vernon Davis is a late TE1 on the ADP list, so snatch him up if you believe in the Martz system and Davis' potential.

If you are waiting this season to pick up a tight end later in your draft or even just looking for a good secondary option, take a longer look at the guys outlined here. Values exist at TE outside of the Top 5-7 names that are going to go early in your fantasy drafts, so do not overlook the later guys who can help your team get those extra points and win a few more games this year.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.