Hot Reads - Week 17

  Posted 12/24 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Welcome to "Hot Reads", a new column for 2008 here at Footballguys.com. The general purpose of this column will be to collect some of my thoughts and observations throughout the NFL season as we go along - from waiver wire comments, how to get the most out of the Footballguys site, or anything else football related that comes to mind. It will mostly be a free-flowing, stream of consciousness - that means that there's no predicting what I might talk about in a given week. So....welcome to my world.....

Sweatin' To The Finish

As I've mentioned before, I wanted to give glimpses into my own world of watching football and covering the NFL and all things fantasy football and beyond. Here's one more for 2008 before we put a big red bow on this column for the year....welcome to my world.

My son is getting heavily into football and he is thrilled to be able to watch games with Dad into the late night with school on Winter Break. So we're watching the last Monday Night Football game between the Bears and the Packers and he asks me if I have any fantasy players in the game. I tell him that I do, and in one league I am playing for the championship with Matt Forte. "If he gets me 17 points, I win," I told him and then explained the PPR style scoring. He gets it and it turns into a little math lesson which is pretty cool and we move on to watching the game.

Before I go on, if you have never "sweated" a result, let me just say that you probably have not played too much fantasy football yet. Consider this foreshadowing of nights to come as you watch Monday Night Football with bated breath, hoping your player(s) do what needs to be done to give you a win. Those of you who have, you know this drill all too well.
As it turns out, Forte was nowhere to be found for most of the game until the waning moments. My son and I start devising different ways for Forte to get to 17 points. "He needs 12 more - that's three catches, 30 yards and a touchdown!" Matthew exclaims. The world is gone mad as father and son connect over fantasy football math. It's a beautiful thing.

The rooting for Forte is not all so great, however, as we were torn in the opposite direction of pulling for Green Bay to win and extend the precarious life of the Philadelphia Eagles, who need a ton of help thanks to them blowing their Week 16 game in Washington. There I was once again devising ways of getting Matt Forte 17 points but still giving him a loss in the game. Again, if you haven't been there, rooting for a coin toss for a few fantasy points before a turnover, you will be someday. Consider this fair warning.

Odds are you know the rest of the story. The game amazingly goes into overtime and Forte gets just enough to give my team a win - deserved or not, I take it. Such is life with fantasy football. I try not to get down into the details of my fantasy teams, but winning in overtime in championship week is a good story, and one that doesn't happen too often. Couple with the game is the win for the Bears, which hurts the Eagles even more and pushes them to the brink of elimination. This is why we love this hobby - and hate it even more on many other instances.

NFL Economics - Follow the Money - Part 2

Everyone seems to be concerned with the economy these days, and the NFL is no exception. While it would be nice to have pro football be a total escape from reality and a great pastime, the truth is that it is a business, and anyone who follows the league for a few years or longer knows that owners and general managers that stick around treat their franchises like a business. Fans may not want to admit it or like it, but they would be wise to at least take a little time to understand that aspect of the NFL and how it could impact their team and the league as a whole.

This brings me to this coming offseason, which is only a few months away. While most fans are focused on the coming playoffs and are trying to figure out who will make it, many teams are already planning what to do come next free agency period. Experienced fantasy football players already know this perspective all too well as they are also looking at next year, especially those who play in any multi-year leagues. Dynasty and keeper decisions are made all year round for them, just like NFL GMs have to make, so they have to keep up with NFL news all year round.

Last week I talked about how the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) between the NFL owners and the Players Union fell apart and the ramifications for free agency for 2009 and 2010. Now I'm here to tell you about two more impacts of the current CBA status - 2009 NFL Rookies and also potential trades this coming offseason.

So let's start with the rookies. In an article found at SportsAgentBlog.com (which is a great article), I found affirmation of some of the things that I suspected. With the CBA expiring, free agency will be delayed from four years of service to six, so that means the first contract is a big deal to prospective NFL players. The average NFL career is only four years, so their first deal may be their only contract for their life. Currently, rookies can either wait for free agency or hope to renegotiate after showing their talents before the four years expire, but there's no guaranteed big payday. Look at Maurice Jones-Drew as an example. Few would argue that he looks like a franchise running back, yet he is one of the cheapest NFL players right now because he signed a minimal rookie deal in 2006. The former second round pick is making just $445,000 this year and $530,000 in 2009 according to that minimal contract. Of course he'll renegotiate this offseason, but imagine a rookie signing a deal like that for six years rather than four? The big payday may never come.

Fast forward to the April NFL Draft and I predict that a record number of players will come out this season to try and get into the league under the current CBA. Why? Well, if there's no big payday expected in 2010 and beyond, 2009 is it. They have to get as big a deal (and as short term a deal) as they can in 2009 so they can have that hope of a secondary payday in three or four seasons. It's a gamble, but the financial uncertainty of an uncapped season in 2010 and the possibility of a rookie salary cap in future seasons will make rookies (and agents) nervous about the future. That makes 2009 a huge year for rookies - so every Dynasty League player should take note. If this happens, the depth of that rookie pool will be very deep and all those later round draft picks that are typically worthless will see a boost in value.

Now let's talk trading (one of my favorite topics). If the financial future is uncertain for 2010 and beyond, think about what "frugal" (read, cheap) owners will do with big name and big dollar players? Sell them for whatever they can, that's what. Couple the fire sales for big salaries with the deep player pool in the draft and savvy general managers will want rookie picks rather than expensive players. Young, inexpensive talent under wraps for 5-6 seasons will be worth way more than a player like Chad Johnson. Teams will be wheeling and dealing far more than usual from January to June and especially before the NFL Draft next April.

That will do it for this week and this season. I hope you enjoyed this window into my world. Until next time.....Happy Holidays and I'll see you next year.