Hot Reads - Week 16
Posted 12/17 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Welcome to "Hot Reads", a new column for 2008 here at Footballguys.com. The general purpose of this column will be to collect some of my thoughts and observations throughout the NFL season as we go along - from waiver wire comments, how to get the most out of the Footballguys site, or anything else football related that comes to mind. It will mostly be a free-flowing, stream of consciousness - that means that there's no predicting what I might talk about in a given week. So....welcome to my world.....
The NFL Rulebook
Okay, I'm not going to be the guy who writes the 1,000th article about the Baltimore Ravens / Pittsburgh Steelers game and whether or not Santonio Holmes scored the touchdown. That's old news now.
I'm also not going to continue to bash the referees - I've done that plenty already this year, and with good cause. I could easily harp on how bad they have been once again, but who needs to read that, really?
What I am going to talk about is the NFL - and in particular NFL.com.
This site should be the be all, end all of any NFL discussion. Want to know anything about the history of the league? What players where the number 95? How many current players are from Virginia Tech? All that plus the definitive answers on any rules questions. It should all be there.
So what happens whenever there's a ruling that makes people scratch their heads in an NFL game? The answer is supposed to start (and probably end) with a look at the rulebook. What constitutes a touchdown, what a fair catch kick is, how many time-outs a team gets in overtime, and plenty more should all be just a few mouse-clicks away.
So what happens when you look for the Official NFL Rulebook online? Well, it is nowhere to be found on NFL.com, that's for sure. Go ahead, go to the site and type "rulebook" in the search window. Tell me how many hits you get - I'll give you a hint though, it's the same amount of points that you get for a field goal. That's right - three hits - and none of them are the rulebook.
Okay, maybe I messed up (welcome to my world) - I'll try again. This time I went with "rule book". Now I got seven - but none of them are the rulebook. Last try - I find "rulebook" as a link at the bottom of the main page of NFL.com, so that leads me to here - The NFL Rulebook page. Awesome! But wait, this is just the Readers' Digest version of the rules with some definition of penalties and football terms. That's about as useful as an Andy Reid Workout Video DVD, which probably gets more attention then that rules digest.
Leave it to Google (and the Shark Pool) to find a better resource - so here it is, the 2007 Official NFL Rulebook. It's conveniently located at newstribune.com. That's great, but isn't this a bad reflection on the NFL? Why aren't the rules right there at their main website for all to see, especially since there's a version online already? Why make it so hard for fans to check the rules?
Don't say that it is because they want to hide something. That's not true at all. They make a point of discussing the rules and officiating decisions every week on NFL Network. When you have the Vice President of NFL Officiating openly talking about the rules every week, that's a strong sign that the league is not hiding anything when it comes to the rules.
Now if they could just do the same with the rulebook, I'd be happy. So come on NFL, step up and put your 2009 version on the website.
NFL Economics - Follow the Money
Everyone seems to be concerned with the economy these days, and the NFL is no exception. While it would be nice to have pro football be a total escape from reality and a great pastime, the truth is that it is a business, and anyone who follows the league for a few years or longer knows that owners and general managers that stick around treat their franchises like a business. Fans may not want to admit it or like it, but they would be wise to at least take a little time to understand that aspect of the NFL and how it could impact their team and the league as a whole.
This brings me to this coming offseason, which is only a few months away. While most fans are focused on the coming playoffs and are trying to figure out who will make it, many teams are already planning what to do come next free agency period. Experienced fantasy football players already know this perspective all too well as they are also looking at next year, especially those who play in any multi-year leagues. Dynasty and keeper decisions are made all year round for them, just like NFL GMs have to make, so they have to keep up with NFL news all year round.
So what exactly is in store in 2009? Plenty. The NFL owners voted to opt out of the CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) with the Players Union, which means that in 2011 there will be no agreement between owners and players. It also means that 2010 will be played with no salary cap, which has a direct bearing on 2009. NFL teams still have to manage their salary cap numbers for 2009, but in 2010 all bets are off. That means that several teams with deep pockets will be looking to buy as many players as they can to try and buy a championship next season, and they will smartly sign the players to very long term contracts with big signing bonuses.
Here's an example. Let's say that the Dallas Cowboys want to try and win the Super Bowl next year at all costs. They can go out and identify a player like Anquan Boldin that could put them over the top and sign him to 10-year deals for $150 Million apiece with a $10M signing bonus. The salary for 2009 could be minimal (say $1 Million) but the salary cap number would only be $2M for 2009 ($1 Million salary plus 10% of the signing bonus, which is spread over the 10 year length of the contract).
To push this further, let's also say that Dallas has identified that they are (A) $10 Million under the salary cap and (B) they have also targeted five stud players. Since they have lots of cash to spend they can afford big signing bonuses to these five players so long as they can fit under the salary cap. If they are $10 Million under the cap for 2009 then they can afford all five at $2 Million each on paper despite having shelled out $11 Million each in real dollars for 2009.
But wait - there's more. It gets worse. Competitive balance will be altered in 2009 and 2010 by teams that have "unlimited" budgets because they have two options in the uncapped season. When teams cut a player before their contracts expire, all of their unused cap value gets accelerated to the next season. Using the Boldin example above, if they decide that he is not worth keeping in 2010 they can cut him and it will cost them $9 Million of "dead money" against the salary cap, which normally would hurt, except that year has no salary cap. Smart GMs will pick up on this in a hurry and start buying veterans with maybe 1-2 years left in the tank and rolling the dice on them for 2009. The possible drawback of "dead money" will no longer be out there, so teams looking to buy veterans to quickly build their teams only need cash to make it happen (Dan Snyder, anyone?). Teams in smaller markets or without deep coffers for big signing bonuses will be left in the cold and unable to play the "rent a vet" game.
So what happens after 2010? Well, right now it looks like the players will want to keep the league uncapped, but that's going to be a battle with the owners. If the US economy doesn't improve, the TV revenues and advertisement dollars may start to shrink and the owners won't be able to operate without a budget. The players may not see it this way (or care about the owners' financial woes), so it could lead to a lockout in 2011. It will be very interesting to watch, but for now it looks like 2010 will be a free agency signing bonanza come next March.
I could go on, but I'll save it for next week when I talk about potential trades and rookies that will be impacted by the CBA. Keeper and Dynasty League players will definitely want to stay tuned for that.
That will do it for this week. I hope you enjoyed this window into my world. Until next time.....
