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Quality Wide Receivers - PPR

  Posted 8/21 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.

Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.

So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2007 season, I decided to take the #24 WR for the year (Santonio Holmes, 198.5 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.

So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.

Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:

WR Start Type
Fantasy Points
Bad Start
0-9.2
Quality Start
9.3-15.4
Excellent Start
15.5+

Table 1: WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring

Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75 WRs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Moss, Randy NEP
11
4
1
16
Wayne, Reggie IND
9
7
0
16
Owens, Terrell DAL
11
0
4
15
Edwards, Braylon CLE
11
3
2
16
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
10
4
1
15
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
8
7
1
16
Johnson, Chad CIN
7
6
3
16
Colston, Marques NOS
9
2
5
16
Marshall, Brandon DEN
8
8
0
16
Welker, Wes NEP
8
4
4
16
Holt, Torry STL
10
4
2
16
Engram, Bobby SEA
8
7
1
16
Burress, Plaxico NYG
7
3
6
16
Mason, Derrick BAL
7
7
2
16
White, Roddy ATL
7
4
5
16
Smith, Steve CAR
5
6
4
15
Curtis, Kevin PHI
4
6
6
16
Jennings, Greg GBP
9
2
2
13
Boldin, Anquan ARI
5
4
3
12
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
6
6
3
15
McDonald, Shaun DET
7
5
4
16
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
5
6
4
15
Driver, Donald GBP
3
7
5
15
Holmes, Santonio PIT
6
4
3
13
Berrian, Bernard CHI
5
6
5
16
Galloway, Joey TBB
5
4
6
15
Johnson, Andre HOU
7
1
1
9
Ward, Hines PIT
4
5
4
13
Chambers, Chris SDC
3
9
4
16
Williams, Roy DET
5
3
4
12
Burleson, Nate SEA
5
3
8
16
Walter, Kevin HOU
5
3
7
15
Evans, Lee BUF
3
4
9
16
Brown, Reggie PHI
3
5
8
16
Crayton, Patrick DAL
5
1
7
13
Williams, Reggie JAC
2
7
5
14
Moss, Santana WAS
3
5
5
13
Johnson, Calvin DET
3
5
7
15
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
4
4
3
11
Curry, Ronald OAK
2
5
9
16
Toomer, Amani NYG
3
4
7
14
Bruce, Isaac STL
4
4
5
13
Patten, David NOS
5
1
8
14
Williams, Roydell TEN
4
3
8
15
Porter, Jerry OAK
2
6
8
16
Battle, Arnaz SFO
2
6
7
15
Gage, Justin TEN
3
4
8
15
Hilliard, Ike TBB
2
3
10
15
Branch, Deion SEA
5
1
4
10
Wade, Bobby MIN
1
5
10
16
Stallworth, Donte' NEP
2
4
9
15
Stokley, Brandon DEN
2
6
5
13
Furrey, Mike DET
0
9
5
14
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
3
3
8
14
Jurevicius, Joe CLE
1
5
10
16
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
2
4
9
15
Jenkins, Michael ATL
4
2
9
15
Jones, James GBP
1
5
7
13
Jackson, Vincent SDC
2
3
10
15
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI
2
3
10
15
Wilford, Ernest JAC
1
4
11
16
Carter, Drew CAR
2
1
12
15
Jackson, Darrell SFO
1
4
10
15
Booker, Marty MIA
2
3
10
15
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
1
7
11
Davis, Andre' HOU
2
3
9
14
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
3
1
9
13
Reed, Josh BUF
0
4
11
15
Johnson, Bryant ARI
1
2
13
16
Washington, Nate PIT
2
3
7
12
Clayton, Mark BAL
2
1
12
15
Rice, Sidney MIN
4
0
7
11
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
1
1
12
14
Bennett, Drew STL
0
5
7
12
Hackett, D.J. SEA
3
0
3
6
Totals:
322
300
460
 .

Table 2: 2007 WR Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts

That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are almost as many Excellent Starts (322) as Quality Starts (300), so that seems to make sense. There are a lot of Bad Starts (460), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.

Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:

NFL WR Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts

We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.

On with the results, sorted by value:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
Moss, Randy NEP
11
4
1
16
10
Wayne, Reggie IND
9
7
0
16
9
Edwards, Braylon CLE
11
3
2
16
9
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
10
4
1
15
9
Marshall, Brandon DEN
8
8
0
16
8
Holt, Torry STL
10
4
2
16
8
Owens, Terrell DAL
11
0
4
15
7
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
8
7
1
16
7
Engram, Bobby SEA
8
7
1
16
7
Jennings, Greg GBP
9
2
2
13
7
Johnson, Andre HOU
7
1
1
9
6
Mason, Derrick BAL
7
7
2
16
5
Johnson, Chad CIN
7
6
3
16
4
Colston, Marques NOS
9
2
5
16
4
Welker, Wes NEP
8
4
4
16
4
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
6
6
3
15
3
McDonald, Shaun DET
7
5
4
16
3
Holmes, Santonio PIT
6
4
3
13
3
White, Roddy ATL
7
4
5
16
2
Boldin, Anquan ARI
5
4
3
12
2
Burress, Plaxico NYG
7
3
6
16
1
Smith, Steve CAR
5
6
4
15
1
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
5
6
4
15
1
Williams, Roy DET
5
3
4
12
1
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
4
4
3
11
1
Branch, Deion SEA
5
1
4
10
1
Berrian, Bernard CHI
5
6
5
16
0
Ward, Hines PIT
4
5
4
13
0
Hackett, D.J. SEA
3
0
3
6
0
Galloway, Joey TBB
5
4
6
15
-1
Chambers, Chris SDC
3
9
4
16
-1
Bruce, Isaac STL
4
4
5
13
-1
Curtis, Kevin PHI
4
6
6
16
-2
Driver, Donald GBP
3
7
5
15
-2
Walter, Kevin HOU
5
3
7
15
-2
Crayton, Patrick DAL
5
1
7
13
-2
Moss, Santana WAS
3
5
5
13
-2
Burleson, Nate SEA
5
3
8
16
-3
Williams, Reggie JAC
2
7
5
14
-3
Patten, David NOS
5
1
8
14
-3
Stokley, Brandon DEN
2
6
5
13
-3
Rice, Sidney MIN
4
0
7
11
-3
Johnson, Calvin DET
3
5
7
15
-4
Toomer, Amani NYG
3
4
7
14
-4
Williams, Roydell TEN
4
3
8
15
-4
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
1
7
11
-4
Brown, Reggie PHI
3
5
8
16
-5
Battle, Arnaz SFO
2
6
7
15
-5
Gage, Justin TEN
3
4
8
15
-5
Furrey, Mike DET
0
9
5
14
-5
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
3
3
8
14
-5
Jenkins, Michael ATL
4
2
9
15
-5
Washington, Nate PIT
2
3
7
12
-5
Evans, Lee BUF
3
4
9
16
-6
Porter, Jerry OAK
2
6
8
16
-6
Jones, James GBP
1
5
7
13
-6
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
3
1
9
13
-6
Curry, Ronald OAK
2
5
9
16
-7
Stallworth, Donte' NEP
2
4
9
15
-7
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
2
4
9
15
-7
Davis, Andre' HOU
2
3
9
14
-7
Bennett, Drew STL
0
5
7
12
-7
Hilliard, Ike TBB
2
3
10
15
-8
Jackson, Vincent SDC
2
3
10
15
-8
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI
2
3
10
15
-8
Booker, Marty MIA
2
3
10
15
-8
Wade, Bobby MIN
1
5
10
16
-9
Jurevicius, Joe CLE
1
5
10
16
-9
Jackson, Darrell SFO
1
4
10
15
-9
Wilford, Ernest JAC
1
4
11
16
-10
Carter, Drew CAR
2
1
12
15
-10
Clayton, Mark BAL
2
1
12
15
-10
Reed, Josh BUF
0
4
11
15
-11
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
1
1
12
14
-11
Johnson, Bryant ARI
1
2
13
16
-12

Table 3: 2007 WR Start Types Sorted By Value

This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, Brandon Marshall and Bobby Engram far exceed their ADP value. Even with Engram and Marshall missing a few starts, their per-game studliness make them both a good gamble to draft for this year. On the low side, several players that are high picks this year like Calvin Johnson need to step up and fill their starter roles. Granted this is a new season, but based on Table 3 it is not surprising if you drafted Calvin Johnson and missed your fantasy playoffs last year.

Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2008 ADP list.

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
ADP
Moss, Randy NEP
11
4
1
16
10
1
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
10
4
1
15
9
5
Edwards, Braylon CLE
11
3
2
16
9
4
Wayne, Reggie IND
9
7
0
16
9
3
Marshall, Brandon DEN
8
8
0
16
8
18
Holt, Torry STL
10
4
2
16
8
11
Engram, Bobby SEA
8
7
1
16
7
44
Jennings, Greg GBP
9
2
2
13
7
17
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
8
7
1
16
7
8
Owens, Terrell DAL
11
0
4
15
7
2
Johnson, Andre HOU
7
1
1
9
6
6
Mason, Derrick BAL
7
7
2
16
5
36
Welker, Wes NEP
8
4
4
16
4
14
Johnson, Chad CIN
7
6
3
16
4
9
Colston, Marques NOS
9
2
5
16
4
7
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
6
6
3
15
3
23
Holmes, Santonio PIT
6
4
3
13
3
16
White, Roddy ATL
7
4
5
16
2
26
Boldin, Anquan ARI
5
4
3
12
2
13
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
4
4
3
11
1
25
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
5
6
4
15
1
21
Williams, Roy DET
5
3
4
12
1
15
Burress, Plaxico NYG
7
3
6
16
1
12
Smith, Steve CAR
5
6
4
15
1
10
Hackett, D.J. SEA
3
0
3
6
0
45
Berrian, Bernard CHI
5
6
5
16
0
32
Ward, Hines PIT
4
5
4
13
0
22
Bruce, Isaac STL
4
4
5
13
-1
42
Galloway, Joey TBB
5
4
6
15
-1
29
Chambers, Chris SDC
3
9
4
16
-1
27
Crayton, Patrick DAL
5
1
7
13
-2
35
Curtis, Kevin PHI
4
6
6
16
-2
31
Moss, Santana WAS
3
5
5
13
-2
30
Driver, Donald GBP
3
7
5
15
-2
28
Williams, Reggie JAC
2
7
5
14
-3
46
Rice, Sidney MIN
4
0
7
11
-3
41
Burleson, Nate SEA
5
3
8
16
-3
34
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
1
7
11
-4
33
Johnson, Calvin DET
3
5
7
15
-4
19
Brown, Reggie PHI
3
5
8
16
-5
39
Porter, Jerry OAK
2
6
8
16
-6
43
Evans, Lee BUF
3
4
9
16
-6
24
Curry, Ronald OAK
2
5
9
16
-7
48
Stallworth, Donte' NEP
2
4
9
15
-7
37
Jackson, Vincent SDC
2
3
10
15
-8
40
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
1
1
12
14
-11
49
Johnson, Bryant ARI
1
2
13
16
-12
47

Table 4: 2008 Top Drafted WRs Sorted By 2007 Value

Note that a few wide receivers are missing from the Top 50 ADP list for the simple reason that they did not make the Top 75 last year. Judging form last season, it would appear that Brandon Marshall is the best value amongst the Top 20 WRs going off the draft board, while Bobby Engram and Derrick Mason could both prove to be a huge steal if they can keep up the 2007 pace all season. That brings up an important point, which is that this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2008 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.

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