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Quality Wide Receivers

  Posted 8/21 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.

Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.

So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2007 season, I decided to take the #24 WR for the year (Andre Johnson, 134.1 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking WR24 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 24th WR should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a WR2 and a great WR3.

So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of WR performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 24th WR average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a WR Quality Start.

Using the WR Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:

WR Start Type
Fantasy Points
Bad Start
0-6.2
Quality Start
6.3-10.4
Excellent Start
10.5+

Table 1: WR Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring

Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 75 WRs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Moss, Randy NEP
12
2
2
16
Owens, Terrell DAL
11
0
4
15
Edwards, Braylon CLE
11
4
1
16
Wayne, Reggie IND
8
8
0
16
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
6
8
1
15
Johnson, Chad CIN
6
5
5
16
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
10
3
3
16
Welker, Wes NEP
10
2
4
16
Colston, Marques NOS
9
1
6
16
Marshall, Brandon DEN
7
8
1
16
Burleson, Nate SEA
9
3
4
16
Burress, Plaxico NYG
7
2
7
16
Jennings, Greg GBP
9
2
2
13
Holt, Torry STL
7
6
3
16
Curtis, Kevin PHI
5
3
8
16
White, Roddy ATL
7
3
6
16
Engram, Bobby SEA
6
8
2
16
Smith, Steve CAR
5
3
7
15
Holmes, Santonio PIT
7
1
5
13
Mason, Derrick BAL
5
6
5
16
Boldin, Anquan ARI
5
3
4
12
Galloway, Joey TBB
6
2
7
15
Hester, Devin CHI
5
1
9
15
Johnson, Andre HOU
7
1
1
9
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
5
5
5
15
McDonald, Shaun DET
5
5
6
16
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
5
3
7
15
Chambers, Chris SDC
4
7
5
16
Berrian, Bernard CHI
4
6
6
16
Davis, Andre' HOU
4
3
7
14
Crayton, Patrick DAL
5
2
8
15
Evans, Lee BUF
5
2
9
16
Ward, Hines PIT
4
3
6
13
Williams, Reggie JAC
6
4
4
14
Walter, Kevin HOU
5
4
6
15
Driver, Donald GBP
3
6
6
15
Williams, Roy DET
4
3
5
12
Porter, Jerry OAK
4
4
8
16
Johnson, Calvin DET
6
1
8
15
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
2
6
8
16
Cribbs, Josh CLE
4
1
11
16
Brown, Reggie PHI
4
5
7
16
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
3
3
5
11
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
2
5
8
15
Curry, Ronald OAK
4
2
10
16
Williams, Roydell TEN
4
0
11
15
Moss, Santana WAS
3
4
6
13
Patten, David NOS
5
1
9
15
Bruce, Isaac STL
4
3
6
13
Toomer, Amani NYG
3
3
9
15
Battle, Arnaz SFO
3
5
8
16
Stokley, Brandon DEN
2
6
5
13
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
2
4
9
15
Branch, Deion SEA
6
0
4
10
Gage, Justin TEN
2
4
10
16
Stallworth, Donte' NEP
3
1
11
15
Wade, Bobby MIN
2
3
11
16
Jurevicius, Joe CLE
1
4
11
16
Parrish, Roscoe BUF
3
0
12
15
Hilliard, Ike TBB
1
3
11
15
Jackson, Vincent SDC
2
2
11
15
Washington, Nate PIT
2
2
9
13
Jenkins, Michael ATL
3
3
9
15
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI
3
2
10
15
Carter, Drew CAR
3
0
12
15
Jones, James GBP
2
3
8
13
Furrey, Mike DET
0
4
11
15
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
1
7
11
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
3
2
8
13
Breaston, Steve ARI
1
1
14
16
Wilford, Ernest JAC
1
2
13
16
Jackson, Darrell SFO
0
5
10
15
Rice, Sidney MIN
4
0
7
11
Moore, Lance NOS
0
4
10
14
Johnson, Bryant ARI
1
3
12
16
Totals:
340
240
526
.

Table 2: 2007 WR Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts

That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are about as many Excellent Starts (340) as Quality Starts (240), but the disparity rises when you take away PPR. The scoring range is also smaller and the range of a Quality Start is small due to lower scores, so more touchdowns would lead to bigger "Excellent Starts". There are a lot of Bad Starts (526), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.

Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a WR that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL wide receiver. Here is the formula:

NFL WR Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts

We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average WR performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.

On with the results, sorted by value:

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
Moss, Randy NEP
12
2
2
16
10
Edwards, Braylon CLE
11
4
1
16
10
Wayne, Reggie IND
8
8
0
16
8
Owens, Terrell DAL
11
0
4
15
7
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
10
3
3
16
7
Jennings, Greg GBP
9
2
2
13
7
Welker, Wes NEP
10
2
4
16
6
Marshall, Brandon DEN
7
8
1
16
6
Johnson, Andre HOU
7
1
1
9
6
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
6
8
1
15
5
Burleson, Nate SEA
9
3
4
16
5
Holt, Torry STL
7
6
3
16
4
Engram, Bobby SEA
6
8
2
16
4
Colston, Marques NOS
9
1
6
16
3
Holmes, Santonio PIT
7
1
5
13
2
Williams, Reggie JAC
6
4
4
14
2
Branch, Deion SEA
6
0
4
10
2
Johnson, Chad CIN
6
5
5
16
1
White, Roddy ATL
7
3
6
16
1
Boldin, Anquan ARI
5
3
4
12
1
Burress, Plaxico NYG
7
2
7
16
0
Mason, Derrick BAL
5
6
5
16
0
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
5
5
5
15
0
Galloway, Joey TBB
6
2
7
15
-1
McDonald, Shaun DET
5
5
6
16
-1
Chambers, Chris SDC
4
7
5
16
-1
Walter, Kevin HOU
5
4
6
15
-1
Williams, Roy DET
4
3
5
12
-1
Smith, Steve CAR
5
3
7
15
-2
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
5
3
7
15
-2
Berrian, Bernard CHI
4
6
6
16
-2
Ward, Hines PIT
4
3
6
13
-2
Johnson, Calvin DET
6
1
8
15
-2
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
3
3
5
11
-2
Bruce, Isaac STL
4
3
6
13
-2
Curtis, Kevin PHI
5
3
8
16
-3
Davis, Andre' HOU
4
3
7
14
-3
Crayton, Patrick DAL
5
2
8
15
-3
Driver, Donald GBP
3
6
6
15
-3
Brown, Reggie PHI
4
5
7
16
-3
Moss, Santana WAS
3
4
6
13
-3
Stokley, Brandon DEN
2
6
5
13
-3
Rice, Sidney MIN
4
0
7
11
-3
Hester, Devin CHI
5
1
9
15
-4
Evans, Lee BUF
5
2
9
16
-4
Porter, Jerry OAK
4
4
8
16
-4
Patten, David NOS
5
1
9
15
-4
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
1
7
11
-4
Battle, Arnaz SFO
3
5
8
16
-5
Gaffney, Jabar NEP
3
2
8
13
-5
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
2
6
8
16
-6
Northcutt, Dennis JAC
2
5
8
15
-6
Curry, Ronald OAK
4
2
10
16
-6
Toomer, Amani NYG
3
3
9
15
-6
Jenkins, Michael ATL
3
3
9
15
-6
Jones, James GBP
2
3
8
13
-6
Cribbs, Josh CLE
4
1
11
16
-7
Williams, Roydell TEN
4
0
11
15
-7
Randle El, Antwaan WAS
2
4
9
15
-7
Washington, Nate PIT
2
2
9
13
-7
Muhammad, Muhsin CHI
3
2
10
15
-7
Gage, Justin TEN
2
4
10
16
-8
Stallworth, Donte' NEP
3
1
11
15
-8
Wade, Bobby MIN
2
3
11
16
-9
Parrish, Roscoe BUF
3
0
12
15
-9
Jackson, Vincent SDC
2
2
11
15
-9
Carter, Drew CAR
3
0
12
15
-9
Jurevicius, Joe CLE
1
4
11
16
-10
Hilliard, Ike TBB
1
3
11
15
-10
Jackson, Darrell SFO
0
5
10
15
-10
Moore, Lance NOS
0
4
10
14
-10
Furrey, Mike DET
0
4
11
15
-11
Johnson, Bryant ARI
1
3
12
16
-11
Wilford, Ernest JAC
1
2
13
16
-12
Breaston, Steve ARI
1
1
14
16
-13

Table 3: 2007 WR Start Types Sorted By Value

This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For example, Brandon Marshall and Bobby Engram far exceed their ADP value. Even with Engram and Marshall missing a few starts, their per-game studliness make them both a good gamble to draft for this year. Andre Johnson is also a big time player when he can stay healthy. On the low side, several players that are high picks this year like Calvin Johnson need to step up and fill their starter roles.

Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2008 ADP list.

Wide Receiver
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
ADP
Moss, Randy NEP
12
2
2
16
10
1
Edwards, Braylon CLE
11
4
1
16
10
4
Wayne, Reggie IND
8
8
0
16
8
3
Jennings, Greg GBP
9
2
2
13
7
17
Houshmandzadeh, T.J. CIN
10
3
3
16
7
8
Owens, Terrell DAL
11
0
4
15
7
2
Marshall, Brandon DEN
7
8
1
16
6
18
Johnson, Andre HOU
7
1
1
9
6
6
Welker, Wes NEP
10
2
4
16
6
14
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI
6
8
1
15
5
5
Burleson, Nate SEA
9
3
4
16
5
34
Holt, Torry STL
7
6
3
16
4
11
Engram, Bobby SEA
6
8
2
16
4
44
Colston, Marques NOS
9
1
6
16
3
7
Holmes, Santonio PIT
7
1
5
13
2
16
Williams, Reggie JAC
6
4
4
14
2
46
Johnson, Chad CIN
6
5
5
16
1
9
White, Roddy ATL
7
3
6
16
1
26
Boldin, Anquan ARI
5
3
4
12
1
13
Mason, Derrick BAL
5
6
5
16
0
36
Bowe, Dwayne KCC
5
5
5
15
0
21
Burress, Plaxico NYG
7
2
7
16
0
12
Hackett, D.J. SEA
0
0
0
0
0
45
Williams, Roy DET
4
3
5
12
-1
15
Galloway, Joey TBB
6
2
7
15
-1
29
Chambers, Chris SDC
4
7
5
16
-1
27
Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ
5
3
7
15
-2
23
Coles, Laveranues NYJ
3
3
5
11
-2
25
Smith, Steve CAR
5
3
7
15
-2
10
Berrian, Bernard CHI
4
6
6
16
-2
32
Ward, Hines PIT
4
3
6
13
-2
22
Bruce, Isaac STL
4
3
6
13
-2
42
Johnson, Calvin DET
6
1
8
15
-2
19
Crayton, Patrick DAL
5
2
8
15
-3
35
Curtis, Kevin PHI
5
3
8
16
-3
31
Moss, Santana WAS
3
4
6
13
-3
30
Driver, Donald GBP
3
6
6
15
-3
28
Rice, Sidney MIN
4
0
7
11
-3
41
Brown, Reggie PHI
4
5
7
16
-3
39
Gonzalez, Anthony IND
3
1
7
11
-4
33
Porter, Jerry OAK
4
4
8
16
-4
43
Evans, Lee BUF
5
2
9
16
-4
24
Hester, Devin CHI
5
1
9
15
-4
50
Curry, Ronald OAK
4
2
10
16
-6
48
Ginn Jr., Ted MIA
2
6
8
16
-6
49
Stallworth, Donte' NEP
3
1
11
15
-8
37
Jackson, Vincent SDC
2
2
11
15
-9
40
Johnson, Bryant ARI
1
3
12
16
-11
47

Table 4: 2008 Top Drafted WRs Sorted By 2007 Value

Note that a few wide receivers are missing from the Top 50 ADP list for the simple reason that they did not make the Top 75 last year. Judging form last season, it would appear that Greg Jennings is the best value amongst the Top 20 WRs going off the draft board, while Nate Burleson and Bobby Engram could both prove to be a huge steal if they can keep up the 2007 pace all season. That brings up an important point, which is that this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2008 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.

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