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Quality Running Backs - PPR

  Posted 8/20 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.

Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.

So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2007 season, I decided to take the #12 RB for the year (Maurice Jones-Drew, 211.5 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking RB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th RB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a RB1 and a great RB2.

So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of RB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th RB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a RB Quality Start.

Using the RB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:

RB Start Type
Fantasy Points
Bad Start
0-9.9
Quality Start
10.0-16.5
Excellent Start
16.6+

Table 1: RB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - PPR Scoring

Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 50 RBs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:

Running Back
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Westbrook, Brian PHI
12
3
0
15
Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC
13
2
1
16
Portis, Clinton WAS
8
7
1
16
Addai, Joseph IND
8
5
2
15
Peterson, Adrian MIN
6
3
5
14
Lewis, Jamal CLE
8
2
5
15
Gore, Frank SFO
4
8
3
15
Barber, Marion DAL
7
2
7
16
McGahee, Willis BAL
6
8
1
15
Graham, Earnest TBB
7
3
5
15
Bush, Reggie NOS
8
2
2
12
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC
4
5
6
15
James, Edgerrin ARI
3
10
3
16
Watson, Kenny CIN
4
6
5
15
Jackson, Steven STL
6
4
2
12
Lynch, Marshawn BUF
5
5
3
13
Grant, Ryan GBP
5
5
4
14
White, LenDale TEN
3
7
6
16
Taylor, Chester MIN
4
4
6
14
Parker, Willie PIT
3
8
3
14
Jacobs, Brandon NYG
5
4
2
11
Jones, Thomas NYJ
2
6
8
16
Brown, Ronnie MIA
4
2
1
7
Fargas, Justin OAK
5
3
6
14
Peterson, Adrian CHI
3
3
10
16
Taylor, Fred JAC
4
3
8
15
Jones, Kevin DET
5
1
7
13
Dunn, Warrick ATL
1
8
7
16
Foster, DeShaun CAR
2
4
10
16
Williams, DeAngelo CAR
2
4
10
16
Dayne, Ron HOU
3
4
6
13
Morris, Maurice SEA
3
3
7
13
Maroney, Laurence NEP
2
4
7
13
Young, Selvin DEN
2
3
10
15
Stecker, Aaron NOS
2
2
10
14
Johnson, Larry KCC
4
2
2
8
Davenport, Najeh PIT
2
3
10
15
Ward, Derrick NYG
3
4
1
8
Jordan, Lamont OAK
2
3
6
11
Norwood, Jerious ATL
1
2
12
15
Alexander, Shaun SEA
1
4
8
13
Benson, Cedric CHI
1
6
4
11
Faulk, Kevin NEP
0
5
11
16
Washington, Leon NYJ
2
1
12
15
Jones, Julius DAL
1
2
13
16
Brown, Chris TEN
1
4
7
12
Henry, Travis DEN
2
2
7
11
Chatman, Jesse MIA
1
3
7
11
Johnson, Rudi CIN
1
3
7
11
Keith, Kenton IND
1
1
13
15
Totals:
192
198
299
689

Table 2: 2007 RB Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts

That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are almost as many Excellent Starts (192) as Quality Starts (198), so that seems to make sense. There are a lot of Bad Starts (299), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.

Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a RB that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL running back. Here is the formula:

NFL RB Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts

We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average RB performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.

On with the results, sorted by value:

Running Back
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
Westbrook, Brian PHI
12
3
0
15
12
Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC
13
2
1
16
12
Portis, Clinton WAS
8
7
1
16
7
Addai, Joseph IND
8
5
2
15
6
Bush, Reggie NOS
8
2
2
12
6
McGahee, Willis BAL
6
8
1
15
5
Jackson, Steven STL
6
4
2
12
4
Lewis, Jamal CLE
8
2
5
15
3
Jacobs, Brandon NYG
5
4
2
11
3
Brown, Ronnie MIA
4
2
1
7
3
Graham, Earnest TBB
7
3
5
15
2
Lynch, Marshawn BUF
5
5
3
13
2
Johnson, Larry KCC
4
2
2
8
2
Ward, Derrick NYG
3
4
1
8
2
Peterson, Adrian MIN
6
3
5
14
1
Gore, Frank SFO
4
8
3
15
1
Grant, Ryan GBP
5
5
4
14
1
Barber, Marion DAL
7
2
7
16
0
James, Edgerrin ARI
3
10
3
16
0
Parker, Willie PIT
3
8
3
14
0
Watson, Kenny CIN
4
6
5
15
-1
Fargas, Justin OAK
5
3
6
14
-1
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC
4
5
6
15
-2
Taylor, Chester MIN
4
4
6
14
-2
Jones, Kevin DET
5
1
7
13
-2
White, LenDale TEN
3
7
6
16
-3
Dayne, Ron HOU
3
4
6
13
-3
Benson, Cedric CHI
1
6
4
11
-3
Taylor, Fred JAC
4
3
8
15
-4
Morris, Maurice SEA
3
3
7
13
-4
Jordan, Lamont OAK
2
3
6
11
-4
Maroney, Laurence NEP
2
4
7
13
-5
Henry, Travis DEN
2
2
7
11
-5
Jones, Thomas NYJ
2
6
8
16
-6
Dunn, Warrick ATL
1
8
7
16
-6
Brown, Chris TEN
1
4
7
12
-6
Chatman, Jesse MIA
1
3
7
11
-6
Johnson, Rudi CIN
1
3
7
11
-6
Peterson, Adrian CHI
3
3
10
16
-7
Alexander, Shaun SEA
1
4
8
13
-7
Foster, DeShaun CAR
2
4
10
16
-8
Williams, DeAngelo CAR
2
4
10
16
-8
Young, Selvin DEN
2
3
10
15
-8
Stecker, Aaron NOS
2
2
10
14
-8
Davenport, Najeh PIT
2
3
10
15
-8
Washington, Leon NYJ
2
1
12
15
-10
Norwood, Jerious ATL
1
2
12
15
-11
Faulk, Kevin NEP
0
5
11
16
-11
Jones, Julius DAL
1
2
13
16
-12
Keith, Kenton
1
1
13
15
-12

Table 3: 2007 RB Start Types Sorted By Value

This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For one, Clinton Portis is a stud when he plays. Reggie Bush is a PPR stud as well, but we sort of knew that already. This ranking just justifies that thought. On the contrary, Julius Jones was the worst "starting" running back in the NFL by a landslide, and Seattle may not be much of a boost.

Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2008 ADP list.

Running Back
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
ADP
Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB
13
2
1
16
12
1
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
12
3
0
15
12
3
Portis, Clinton WAS RB
8
7
1
16
7
8
Addai, Joseph IND RB
8
5
2
15
6
5
Bush, Reggie NOS RB
8
2
2
12
6
15
McGahee, Willis BAL RB
6
8
1
15
5
14
Jackson, Steven STL RB
6
4
2
12
4
4
Lewis, Jamal CLE RB
8
2
5
15
3
13
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB
5
4
2
11
3
16
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB
4
2
1
7
3
22
Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB
5
5
3
13
2
9
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
4
2
2
8
2
10
Graham, Earnest TBB RB
7
3
5
15
2
18
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
6
3
5
14
1
2
Gore, Frank SFO RB
4
8
3
15
1
7
Grant, Ryan GBP RB
5
5
4
14
1
11
Barber, Marion DAL RB
7
2
7
16
0
6
Parker, Willie PIT RB
3
8
3
14
0
21
James, Edgerrin ARI RB
3
10
3
16
0
24
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
4
5
6
15
-2
12
Taylor, Chester MIN RB
4
4
6
14
-2
34
White, LenDale TEN RB
3
7
6
16
-3
25
Taylor, Fred JAC RB
4
3
8
15
-4
32
Maroney, Laurence NEP RB
2
4
7
13
-5
17
Jones, Thomas NYJ RB
2
6
8
16
-6
20
Johnson, Rudi CIN RB
1
3
7
11
-6
28
Young, Selvin DEN RB
2
3
10
15
-8
26
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB
2
4
10
16
-8
33
Turner, Michael SDC RB
1
0
11
12
-10
19
Jones, Julius DAL RB
1
2
13
16
-12
29

Table 4: 2008 Top Drafted RBs Sorted By 2007 Value

Note that several rookies in the Top 36 ADP list are absent for the simple reason that they did not start any games last year. Judging form last season, it would appear that Reggie Bush and Willis McGahee are nice values amongst the Top 15 RBs going off the draft board, while Ronnie Brown could prove to be a huge steal if he keeps up his 2007 pace and plays all season. That brings up an important point, which is that this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2008 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.

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