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Quality Running Backs

  Posted 8/20 by Jeff Pasquino, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

There are some fantasy football players that believe that the lineup you pick can lose you a game just as much as it can win a contest. Having a player give you a consistent performance week after week can be considered more valuable than a player who goes off every third week and then takes two weeks off between those fantastic performances. Consistency has a value, and it does not take much of a leap to understand that players that you can rely on for solid games when you need them (such as in your postseason) are a huge advantage.

Baseball has a term called "Quality Starts" for pitchers, which is a statistic that represents how often a starting pitcher will put up a good (not great, just good) performance in a given game. The bar is set neither high nor low (six innings pitched, three earned runs or fewer) so as to gauge a decent performance. The theory behind it is that if your pitcher gives you a Quality Start, your team has a fighting chance to win a given game.

So now we need to translate this to football. What is "quality" for each position? How do we define a "Quality Start" for quarterbacks or running backs or any other position? Looking back at the 2007 season, I decided to take the #12 RB for the year (Earnest Graham, 185.5 fantasy points) and take that fantasy total and divide it by 16 for a per game average. Now a case can be made to argue against doing this. I did not account for missed games or a per-start performance metric, but I believe that the numbers will get averaged out by doing this method. Also, taking RB12 seems a bit arbitrary, but if you are looking for a bare minimum of quality, the 12th RB should be the "worst starter" in your fantasy league as a RB1 and a great RB2.

So now we move on to the next question - one of quantifying the quality. At what point do we decide whether or not a quarterback has given us a quality performance? Here is where it gets a bit murky, but looking at the distribution of RB performances by starters over the season and it becomes evident that the using the 12th RB average and adding or subtracting a percentage gives us a good range for a RB Quality Start.

Using the RB Quality Start range, we can also define a bad performance or an excellent performance as either falling below or exceeding the Quality Start range. Table 1 gives us the fantasy points that it takes to fall in each of the three areas:

RB Start Type
Fantasy Points
Bad Start
0-8.6
Quality Start
8.7-14.4
Excellent Start
14.5+

Table 1: RB Quality Start and Fantasy Point Ranges - Standard Scoring

Table 2 shows us the breakdown of all the Top 50 RBs and how many of each type of start resulted for each:

Running Back
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC
10
5
1
16
Westbrook, Brian PHI
11
4
0
15
Peterson, Adrian MIN
6
3
5
14
Addai, Joseph IND
8
4
3
15
Portis, Clinton WAS
9
2
5
16
Lewis, Jamal CLE
7
3
5
15
Barber, Marion DAL
8
0
8
16
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC
6
4
5
15
Gore, Frank SFO
4
5
6
15
James, Edgerrin ARI
3
9
4
16
McGahee, Willis BAL
4
9
2
15
Graham, Earnest TBB
7
2
6
15
Lynch, Marshawn BUF
5
6
2
13
Jackson, Steven STL
5
5
2
12
Grant, Ryan GBP
5
5
5
15
White, LenDale TEN
2
8
6
16
Watson, Kenny CIN
3
6
6
15
Taylor, Fred JAC
4
3
8
15
Parker, Willie PIT
3
7
4
14
Jones, Thomas NYJ
2
6
8
16
Jacobs, Brandon NYG
4
5
2
11
Taylor, Chester MIN
4
2
8
14
Fargas, Justin OAK
5
2
7
14
Bush, Reggie NOS
3
5
4
12
Washington, Leon NYJ
1
6
9
16
Maroney, Laurence NEP
3
4
6
13
Brown, Ronnie MIA
4
1
2
7
Norwood, Jerious ATL
1
5
9
15
Jones, Kevin DET
4
2
7
13
Dayne, Ron HOU
3
3
7
13
Foster, DeShaun CAR
2
3
10
15
Williams, DeAngelo CAR
2
3
11
16
Davenport, Najeh PIT
2
3
10
15
Peterson, Adrian CHI
3
1
12
16
Dunn, Warrick ATL
2
2
12
16
Morris, Maurice SEA
3
3
7
13
Alexander, Shaun SEA
2
4
7
13
Ward, Derrick NYG
2
5
1
8
Young, Selvin DEN
2
3
10
15
Benson, Cedric CHI
2
3
6
11
Stecker, Aaron NOS
2
2
11
15
Henry, Travis DEN
2
3
6
11
Jordan, Lamont OAK
3
1
7
11
Johnson, Larry KCC
4
2
2
8
Brown, Chris TEN
1
3
8
12
Jones, Julius DAL
0
3
13
16
Thomas, Pierre NOS
1
2
9
12
Droughns, Reuben NYG
2
2
11
15
Keith, Kenton IND
1
3
11
15
Buckhalter, Correll PHI
0
4
10
14
Totals:
182
186
326
694

Table 2: 2007 RB Start Types By Player Sorted By Total Starts

That's a lot of info to digest, so let me help. First, we see that there are almost as many Excellent Starts (182) as Quality Starts (186), so that seems to make sense. There are a lot of Bad Starts (326), but we are only looking for the best here, plus a "start" is not as definitive for a positional player that may just see partial playing time. The net results look like a good trend, which means that our distribution is close to normal and that our baseline point range does make sense.

Now, to dig deeper, let's look at the numbers distributed in two different ways. First, I need to define a valuable starting quarterback in this system. We want a RB that will win more fantasy games than lose them, so we want either "Quality" or "Excellent" starts. Using a simple formula of scoring each type of start, we can define the value of a given NFL running back. Here is the formula:

NFL RB Value = Excellent Starts - Bad Starts

We neglect to look at Quality Starts because they neither win games nor lose them on average - they are just average RB performances. We only really care about how often he helps our team vs. how often he hurts it. Giving a "-1" value to bad starts and "+1" to excellent ones does this for us.

On with the results, sorted by value:

Running Back
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
Westbrook, Brian PHI
11
4
0
15
11
Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC
10
5
1
16
9
Addai, Joseph IND
8
4
3
15
5
Portis, Clinton WAS
9
2
5
16
4
Lynch, Marshawn BUF
5
6
2
13
3
Jackson, Steven STL
5
5
2
12
3
Lewis, Jamal CLE
7
3
5
15
2
McGahee, Willis BAL
4
9
2
15
2
Jacobs, Brandon NYG
4
5
2
11
2
Brown, Ronnie MIA
4
1
2
7
2
Johnson, Larry KCC
4
2
2
8
2
Peterson, Adrian MIN
6
3
5
14
1
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC
6
4
5
15
1
Graham, Earnest TBB
7
2
6
15
1
Ward, Derrick NYG
2
5
1
8
1
Barber, Marion DAL
8
0
8
16
0
Grant, Ryan GBP
5
5
5
15
0
James, Edgerrin ARI
3
9
4
16
-1
Parker, Willie PIT
3
7
4
14
-1
Bush, Reggie NOS
3
5
4
12
-1
Gore, Frank SFO
4
5
6
15
-2
Fargas, Justin OAK
5
2
7
14
-2
Watson, Kenny CIN
3
6
6
15
-3
Maroney, Laurence NEP
3
4
6
13
-3
Jones, Kevin DET
4
2
7
13
-3
White, LenDale TEN
2
8
6
16
-4
Taylor, Fred JAC
4
3
8
15
-4
Taylor, Chester MIN
4
2
8
14
-4
Dayne, Ron HOU
3
3
7
13
-4
Morris, Maurice SEA
3
3
7
13
-4
Benson, Cedric CHI
2
3
6
11
-4
Henry, Travis DEN
2
3
6
11
-4
Jordan, Lamont OAK
3
1
7
11
-4
Alexander, Shaun SEA
2
4
7
13
-5
Jones, Thomas NYJ
2
6
8
16
-6
Brown, Chris TEN
1
3
8
12
-7
Washington, Leon NYJ
1
6
9
16
-8
Norwood, Jerious ATL
1
5
9
15
-8
Foster, DeShaun CAR
2
3
10
15
-8
Davenport, Najeh PIT
2
3
10
15
-8
Young, Selvin DEN
2
3
10
15
-8
Thomas, Pierre NOS
1
2
9
12
-8
Williams, DeAngelo CAR
2
3
11
16
-9
Peterson, Adrian CHI
3
1
12
16
-9
Stecker, Aaron NOS
2
2
11
15
-9
Droughns, Reuben NYG
2
2
11
15
-9
Dunn, Warrick ATL
2
2
12
16
-10
Keith, Kenton IND
1
3
11
15
-10
Buckhalter, Correll PHI
0
4
10
14
-10
Jones, Julius DAL
0
3
13
16
-13

Table 3: 2007 RB Start Types Sorted By Value

This is a lot of information once again, but some names leap out at us. For one, Brian Westbrook is underrated in standard scoring. He's considered a PPR monster, but he clearly puts up big numbers in any format. Clinton Portis is a stud when he plays. Reggie Bush is a PPR stud but falls on his face when those reception points go away. On the low side, Julius Jones was the worst "starting" running back in the NFL by a landslide, and Seattle may not be much of a boost.

Lastly I will sift through it for you and get right to the heart of the matter with our final table. Here we have the results sorted by value for the Top 36 RBs on the 2008 ADP list.

Running Back
Excellent
Quality
Bad
Total
Net Val
ADP
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB
11
4
0
15
11
3
Tomlinson, LaDainian SDC RB
10
5
1
16
9
1
Addai, Joseph IND RB
8
4
3
15
5
5
Portis, Clinton WAS RB
9
2
5
16
4
8
Jackson, Steven STL RB
5
5
2
12
3
4
Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB
5
6
2
13
3
9
Brown, Ronnie MIA RB
4
1
2
7
2
22
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB
4
5
2
11
2
16
Johnson, Larry KCC RB
4
2
2
8
2
10
Lewis, Jamal CLE RB
7
3
5
15
2
13
McGahee, Willis BAL RB
4
9
2
15
2
14
Graham, Earnest TBB RB
7
2
6
15
1
18
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB
6
4
5
15
1
12
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB
6
3
5
14
1
2
Barber, Marion DAL RB
8
0
8
16
0
6
Grant, Ryan GBP RB
5
5
5
15
0
11
Bush, Reggie NOS RB
3
5
4
12
-1
15
James, Edgerrin ARI RB
3
9
4
16
-1
24
Parker, Willie PIT RB
3
7
4
14
-1
21
Gore, Frank SFO RB
4
5
6
15
-2
7
Maroney, Laurence NEP RB
3
4
6
13
-3
17
Johnson, Rudi CIN RB
3
1
7
11
-4
28
Taylor, Chester MIN RB
4
2
8
14
-4
34
Taylor, Fred JAC RB
4
3
8
15
-4
32
White, LenDale TEN RB
2
8
6
16
-4
25
Jones, Thomas NYJ RB
2
6
8
16
-6
20
Young, Selvin DEN RB
2
3
10
15
-8
26
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB
2
3
11
16
-9
33
Turner, Michael SDC RB
1
0
12
13
-11
19
Jones, Julius DAL RB
0
3
13
16
-13
29

Table 4: 2008 Top Drafted RBs Sorted By 2007 Value

Note that several rookies in the Top 36 ADP list are absent for the simple reason that they did not start any games last year. Judging form last season, it would appear that Clinton Portis is the best value amongst the Top 10 RBs going off the draft board, while Ronnie Brown could prove to be a huge steal if he keeps up his 2007 pace and plays all season. That brings up an important point, which is that this is based solely on last year's results. There is no reason to believe in these numbers as indications of 2008 performance, but having this information available should give you more to think about when deciding who you will have leading your fantasy team this year.

As always, feedback is welcome at pasquino@footballguys.com.

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