Eyes Of the Guru - NFC Preseason Report

Posted 8/2 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Hello again IDP junkies and welcome to the 12th edition (part two) of the preseason Eyes of the Guru. This time I'll be covering the NFC. If your looking for in depth coverage on the defensive side of the ball you have come to the right place. No one covers the game better than The Football Guys and I am proud that both I and the EOTG are part of the team. You will find nothing but fantasy football in this report. No contract talk, no police reports. Only the stuff that matters. For reference, when I mention where guys finished in the rankings last season, my model will be the recently updated Football Guys scoring system which is nearly identical to the North American Fantasy Football Addicts (NAFFA) league I have run for the past 12 years. Feel free to check it out. Defensive scoring in this league is the standard stuff but keep in mind rankings will vary a bit from league to league. From time to time I will reference the "rookie corner rule". Those of you who are familiar with the EOTG report know what that is. For those who are new, the rookie corner rule is basically the fact that in the NFL, starting a rookie at corner is like throwing chum to the sharks. Offensive coordinators will target young and inexperienced players as weaknesses thus these guys have an accelerated number of opportunities. Most often these guys are the cream of the crop at the position (which is why they are starting so soon) and their numbers will begin to drop sharply after their rookie seasons. When I mention tackle numbers, I do not lump assists and solo tackles together. Unless I make a reference one way or the other, I am talking about solo tackles. This will likely be the last you hear from me before the season opens so I want to wish everyone the best of luck. Starting with week 1 I will be doing a weekly version of the EOTG that will run through week 17. The season is almost here so lets get this going.

Philadelphia Eagles

Defensive Line

In years past the Eagles used a rotation on the DL that looked like a line change in hockey. Injuries in 2006 and a general lack of quality depth last season forced a change of plan, but was it only temporary? With last year's #2 pick Victor Abiamiri apparently ready to contribute and the additions of free agent Chris Clemons and second round pick Trevor Laws, this is suddenly a very deep unit once again. It will be no surprise if the coaching staff goes back to playing 7 or 8 guys on a regular basis. Only time will tell if this happens or even what impact it will have on the box scores, but don't let it scare you away from Trent Cole. As a rookie in '05 Cole earned a spot in the rotation around mid season and in the final 8 games was 31-6-5. His numbers have steadily improved in the two years since and last season's 49-20-12 landed him as the #3 lineman. Just as importantly, Cole managed to avoid the late season slump that frustrated fantasy owners the year before when he seemed to wear down in December. Cole is a little undersized at 260 pounds but is hands down the club's biggest pass rush threat. With better depth available he may get a little more rest during the season, but not enough to considerably impact his production. He's young and is just entering the prime of his career. If the Eagles new additions can take some of the pressure off, Cole could be a contender for the sack title in '08... Dating all the way back to last preseason the Eagles have sent mixed signals when it comes to Abiamiri. Last August defensive coordinator Jim Johnson called him "a classic left end" and said things like, he's better than expected and that he's already the team's best DE versus the run. Yet Abiamiri spent the vast majority of his rookie season on the inactive list. It was reported back in May that he was working with the first team during minicamp but I wouldn't get too excited about that. The club obviously had/has high expectations but I suggest we believe it when we see him starting during the preseason Even if Abiamiri wins the starting job the chance of his having a big year are slim. He posted 18.5 sacks in his final two seasons at Notre Dame but much of that production came in a handful of games against lesser opponents. He is not a great pass rusher and would likely be replaced in passing situations by either last year's starter Juqua Parker or rush specialist Chris Clemons. At just 250 pounds Parker (it was Thomas before the recent name change) is basically a rush specialist as well, but was forced into starting service last season when Jevon Kearse struggled with injuries and eventually landed on IR. Clemons comes over from Oakland where his 8 sacks were second on the team last year. He is only 234 pounds but fits the mold of Philly's small but fast rush ends. Clemons will contend with Parker for the position of designated pass rusher. One or even both of these guys could post 7-8 sacks but neither will have the supporting tackle production to be worthy fantasy options... Just four years ago Darren Howard put up 37 tackles and 11.5 sacks in 13 games for the Saints. He's been a forgotten man since coming to Philly in '06. Despite the injury/depth situation last season, Howard was rarely used and ended the season with just 8 combined tackles and 1 sack. He has been fighting a bad knee but there are rumors/reports that it's been his bad attitude and poor work ethic that has been the bigger problem. The Eagles are reported to be considering a move to tackle as a way to possibly get some return on their investment. That would likely be no more than a last ditch effort before cutting their losses... The Eagles have made a huge investment of draft picks at the DT positions over the past few years. Mike Patterson and Broderick Bunkley were both first round selections in '05 and '06 respectively and they grabbed Trevor Laws in round two this year. All three of these guys are very athletic and mobile big men with great motors and the tenacity to chase down plays anywhere on the field. Bunkley handled the undertackle duties last season which freed up Patterson for a big year. With 50 tackles and 3.5 sacks Patterson finished #3 behind Kelly Gregg and Jovan Haye in both tackles and fantasy production. At 304 pound Laws is about 20 pounds heavier than either of his teammates which might make him a better fit at the space eating undertackle position. He was very productive at Notre Dame where he led the nation in tackles by a lineman last season. That statistic is a little misleading though as Laws actually played DE in the Fighting Irish 3-4 scheme. His production could translate to the pro game but he would be hard pressed to post great numbers if he's stuck at nose/undertackle. Most likely the Eagles will look to use a 3 man rotation at tackle. This could have a little negative impact on Patterson but could ultimately be a plus when he has fresh legs in December. Look for Patterson to return to the top 10 and likely top 5 again this season while Bunkley and Laws do a lot of the dirty work.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Trent Cole - Top 10 DE with potential to lead the league in sacks
DE Chris Clemons - Pass rush specialist with minimal value
DE Darren Howard - No value until proven otherwise
DE Victor Abiamiri - Sleeper with limited upside
DE Juqua Parker - Minimal value
DT Mike Patterson - Strong starter in tackle required leagues
DT Broderick Bunkley - Backup in tackle required leagues
DT Trevor Laws - Dynasty/sleeper in tackle required leagues
DT Kimo von Oelhoffen - No value

Linebacker

Philly has been searching for the right answers at linebacker for the past few years and are slowly putting together the pieces of the puzzle. Chris Gocong was their 3rd round pick in '06 and had the coaches feeling optimistic before being shut down by a neck injury that cost him his rookie season. He came back strong and settled in as the starter on the strong side last season where he did a fine job. SLB however, is the only position of the three that is settled for certain. The club brought back Jeremiah Trotter in '04 to buy them some time while they searched for the future at MLB. He kept the seat warm for three years before parting ways after the 2006 season when the club believed Omar Gaither was going to be their answer. Gaither saw a great deal of action at WLB as a rookie in '06 and was particularly impressive late in the season when he went 40-13-1 with a pick in the final 7 games including the playoffs. He shifted inside last season and did an adequate job but at just 225 pounds, was not the physical presence the coaching staff was looking for. With Takeo Spike gone, Gaither will move back to his natural position on the weak side where he should be a long term answer. That left the club in search of one more starter and the coaching staff thinks they have him in last year's 3rd round pick Stewart Bradley. We have heard this from them before and it hasn't worked out but this time I am inclined to believe them. Bradley is a physical 254 pound run stuffer with above average speed for a player of his size. He didn't play much last season but at Nebraska he was very strong at the point of attack with the ability to stun and shed blockers then make the play. He's smart and not prone to mistakes or missed tackles. In many ways Bradley is much like Trotter but he's a little faster and should prove much better in coverage. Gaither went just 69-33 at MLB last season but don't use those numbers to gauge expectations for Bradley, look at Trotter's numbers instead. In his first stint with the Eagles he was a tackling machine who reached or came near to triple digit tackles nearly every season. Even after his return when he was in decline, Trotter went for 102-19-1 and 88-25-0 in '05 and '06 respectively, and was a top 15 LB in both seasons. Trotter pulled this off despite average at best coverage skills that often landed him on the sideline in passing situations. With better cover skills, Bradley has a good shot at being an every down player. He hasn't made a lot of noise thus far and will slide under the radar to some extent but owners are quickly becoming aware of him as the season draws nearer. Consider him a sleeper but don't expect Bradley to last into the late rounds... It's been more than a decade sine an Eagles WLB has give us more than marginal production. For example, Spikes was on pace for 73 tackles last season had he not missed a couple of games. If he can provide some big play production Gaither may prove to be a quality backup in large leagues but don't count on him for more than 75 tackles.

Fantasy Prospects

SLB Bradley Stewart - Strong sleeper with big potential
SLB Chris Gocong - No value
WLB Omar Gaither - Quality depth at best
OLB Andy Studebaker - Injury sleeper at best
OLB/MLB Rocky Boiman - No value

Defensive Back

For many years Brian Dawkins was a highly overrated player when it came to fantasy production. Like may players, his highlight reel and Pro Bowl credentials led to name recognition with a lot of fantasy owners. Yet prior to the 2005 season Dawkins had never reached 70 tackles nor finished among the top 5 DBs, and had just 1 top 10. It's hard to put a finger on just what happened that changed his fortunes but he enjoyed the best, most consistent numbers of his 12 year career in '05 and '06 when he turned in his usual plethora of big plays but added 70 and 76 tackles respectively, and back to back top 5 finishes. Dawkins will be 35 in October and battled injuries much of last season. He played in only 10 games and was not very productive in those. Which bring up the question, is it time for a changing of the guard at FS in Philly? If not this year then very soon. The club may already be preparing for that time. This year's 4th round pick Quintin Demps could be groomed for the job. He lacks Dawkins physical nature and was prone to missing some tackles during his days at UTEP, but he had more interceptions (17) during his college career than any player in this years draft. If the Eagles coaching staff can awaken a nasty streak in him or at least coach him up when it comes to tackling technique, Demps could be the man as soon as 2009. Dawkins is healthy entering camp and still has a little gas in the tank. However, if Stewart Bradley proves to be the player the Eagles believe he is at MLB, Dawkins may have fewer tackle opportunities this season. He could give us another year or maybe even two, of decent production but it's buyer beware. Don't count on him as more than a decent #3 starter... Sean Considine replaced Michael Lewis at SS during the '06 season when Lewis was deemed a liability in coverage. His overall numbers were a mediocre 60-26-1.5. Consider however, that Lewis also totaled 41 solo stops and that Considine averaged 5.5 tackles over the final 6 weeks when Lewis played very little. He opened last season as the undisputed starter but battled a sore knee early in the season before landing on IR with a shoulder injury early in November. With Considine banged up, Quintin Mikell saw a great deal of action and moved into the starting role in week 9. The Eagles have made no announcement as to who will enter camp as their starting SS so we can only speculate that there will be competition between these two. What we do know is that over the past two seasons Considine has combined with Lewis for 101 tackles and with Mikell for 80. Granted some of those were overlap (especially with Lewis) when both players were on the field together, but the bottom line is that there seems to be some potential value with the Eagles SS position. Watch this situation during camp and slip their starter onto you sleeper list... The Eagles strengthened their pass defense by adding free agencies top corner Asante Samuel. That may go a long way toward getting them to the Super Bowl and it certainly makes the Eagles a better defense for those of us who still play in a team D league on the side. Unfortunately it will do little for IDP owners. Since 2002 Philly had given us just 1 top 15 corner and only 2 have reached 60 tackles in a season. It just happens that we're talking about Sheldon Brown in all three instances. He was a top 10 corner in '04 with a mark of 66-23-3 and 3 takeaways then managed 61-7 and 4 takeaways last season for a #23 ranking among corners. In between Brown put up just 48 and 37 solo stops. Having one of the leagues best corners opposite him this year can only help as teams look to avoid Samuel, but don't set your expectations too high. Brown might make a quality backup in corner required leagues. Samuel had a career year in '06 with 60 tackles, 10 picks and a top 5 finish, but he has not been in the top 35 in any of his other 4 pro seasons. He replaces Lito Sheppard who has just 1 top 40 finish in the past 6 seasons. That pretty much sums it up.

Fantasy Prospects

FS Brian Dawkins - Productive if healthy but at age 35 don't count on him as more than a solid #3
SS Quintin Mikell - Sleeper with a little upside
SS Sean Considine - Sleeper with upside
FS Quintin Demps - Dynasty sleeper
CB Asante Samuel - No value
CB Lito Sheppard- Nickel corner with no value
CB Sheldon Brown- Depth in corner required leagues
CB Josellio Hanson - No value

New York Giants

Defensive Line

Obviously the big news with the Giants is the retirement of perennial stud Michael Strahan, but the more important news when it comes to IDP in Justin Tuck. If last year was any indication, Tuck will step right into Strahan's position and assume his numbers as well. The only thing that will have changed the name on the jersey. Tuck played in 14 games as a rookie in 2005 and was rather unimpressive with 26 tackles and single sack. He spent most of the '06 season on IR recovering from foot surgery that some thought might be career threatening. When Strahan held out last August, Tuck got an opportunity to work extensively with the first team. That's when the signs started showing up. Tuck was so impressive that when Strahan finally reported, the coaching staff just had to find a way to keep Tuck on the field. Being the versatile player that he is, it didn't take long for them to figure it out. He was initially installed at tackle where he lined up for the majority of the defensive snaps during the season, but defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo soon began experimenting with all his weapons. By the time the season was over Tuck had lined up at all four DL positions. The Giants even had a call in their playbook that lined up Strahan and Tuck at tackle with Osi Umenyiora and Mathias Kiwanuka at end. Spagnuolo doesn't have quite as many toys to play with this year so just maybe the Giants will be a little more conventional with their play calling. The one thing that seems certain is that Tuck is the real deal and will post big numbers however he is used. His 48-16-9.5 last season earned him a ranking of #16. Tuck is just entering the prime of his career and chances are we have not see his best. It would be surprising if he were to fall short of the top 10 in '08... Osi Umenyiora has reached 14 sacks twice in the last three seasons and 40 or more tackles in three of the last four. Were it not for an injury plagued '06 season, would have turned in 4 consecutive top 10 finishes. He has the size to stand up versus the run and is a proven playmaker with 41.5 sacks, 13 forced fumbles and 8 recoveries in 4 seasons as a starter. Simply put, he is the complete package and should be one of the top 5 defensive linemen off the board on draft day... Tuck did much of his damage from the tackle position last season but don't expect that kind of production from anyone else that the Giants plug in there. Third year pro Barry Cofield will line up at the undertackle position with Fred Robbins seeing most of the action at the 3 technique position. Robbins is a solid if unspectacular player who has put up 10 sacks in two years as the starter but has a career high of only 32 tackles. He may have some value as a backup in tackle required leagues but doesn't have much upside. The wildcard in this mix is last year's 3rd round pick Jay Alford. He's no Justin Tuck but Alford is a versatile guy who played a lot of end during his time at Penn State where he recorded 16.5 sacks in two years as a starter. He's not a bruiser but is a quick athletic type who could give the coaching staff some options. Alford played very little as a rookie but that is probably more of a tribute to the veterans who were ahead of him than a knock on his ability. Alford could eventually push Robbins for playing time and has the potential to be more box score friendly.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Justin Tuck - Potential top 10
DE Osi Umenyiora - Perennial top 10 stud with potential to lead the league in sacks
DE Renaldo Wynn- No value
DT Fred Robbins - Backup at best in tackle required leagues
DT Jay Alford - Sleeper in tackle required leagues
DT Barry Cofield - No value

Linebacker

Based on his very average production of 77-26-1, many owners will undervalue Antonio Pierce this season. Before you fall into that category consider that Pierce came out of the gate strong last year and was on a solid pace before suffering a concussion in early November and then an ankle injury in week 12. There is also the fact that Strahan, Umenyiora and Tuck each totaled over 40 solo stops. In fact the 5 players who saw the majority of the action on Giants DL combined for 195. No other DL group came close. It's hard to make tackles if the ball carrier can't get to you. Strahan is gone and Pierce is healthy now, so look for more "normal" production from him this year. He's been a top 20 ILB each season since he became a starter for the Redskins in 2004. In his first season with the Giants three years ago, Pierce put up 80 tackles in 13 games and was on pace for 98. In '06 he reached triple digits (109) and was a top 5 linebacker. He's not a huge big play guy but will sprinkle in 5-6 along the way and always contributed 8-10 passes defended. His tackle numbers may settle in the upper 80s to low 90s range this season but look for him to rebound from last year's drought and be a solid second starter... When the Giants drafted Mathias Kiwanuka in the first round two years ago, Tuck was battling a serious injury and Strahan was near retirement. The pick was made in preparation for a future without either of them. Fast foreword to last season when the coaching staff found themselves with all 4 guys to work with. Kiwanuka is a natural end and may some day return there full time, but he has made a successful transition to OLB where he adds pass rush dimension that most teams don't have from the position. Since he still lines up at end once in a while, I can't honestly tell you how many of his 9 sacks over the past two years have come from the SLB position but I'm sure that most of them have. Kiwanuka doesn't make enough tackles to be a fantasy option as an OLB but if there is an injury and the club elects to move him back to end, he will be productive. He is coming off an ankle injury that landed him on IR last November but is expected to be ready for camp... The WLB position remains in question entering camp. Last season the club plugged in free agent Kawika Mitchell who had signed just a one year contract. Mitchell picked up his ring then cashed in his winning lottery ticket with the Bills, leaving the Giants with a hole to fill again. The three main contestants for the job are '06 third round pick Gerris Wilkinson, journeyman free agent addition Danny Clark and rookie 4th round pick Bryan Kehl. During his rookie season there was a lot of hype about how much the coaching staff liked Wilkinson and how high they were on him as the future of the position. A dislocated knee cap in August took him out of contention for job and sidelined him well into the season. Wilkinson saw some action at SLB after Kiwanuka was injured but he's not a fit at that position so the experiment was short. He is healthy now and enters camp as the favorite to win the job... Danny Clark is the kind of player every coach wants on his team. He's all effort all the time, is a model citizen with great work ethic and a complete team player. What he's not is exceptionally talented. Clark has good size, is brutally physical and very smart but he has just average speed, can be a liability in coverage and doesn't make big plays. Clark is versatile enough to be a quality backup for all three positions but it would be surprising to see him start, particularly at a WLB position which doesn't play to his strengths... Kehl is a very interesting prospect, particularly for dynasty owners. Coach Coughlin is an old school guy who doesn't like to start rookies, which makes it unlikely that Kehl will win the job this season. But this kid has a lot of potential. He's an athletic, football smart 242 pounder with decent speed and a motor that never stops. He will need to do some work on cover skills but holds his own in zone coverage and has a knack for getting to the ball when it's in the air. Most importantly, he's just a good football player and his production as a senior at BYU shows just that. Kehl was 91-11-4 with a forced fumble, a recovery and 3 picks. He's a long shot to get a chance this season but keep an eye on this kid down the road, especially if Wilkinson doesn't impress... The Giants WLB position hasn't been exceptionally productive since Dhani Jones totaled 92 tackles back in 2003, but much of that has to do with the fact that it has been a revolving door of average talent in recent years. Mitchell went just 54-22-2.5 last season but then he is a MLB who was miscast in the position to begin with. The bottom line here is that none of these guys are going to be drafted, but we should keep an eye on the situation over the first month of the season just to see if someone steps up.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB Antonio Pierce - Solid #2 starter
SLB Mathias Kiwanuka - Sleeper for leagues that emphasize sacks
WLB Gerris Wilkinson - Deep sleeper with some upside
SLB/MLB Danny Clark - Injury sleeper
OLB Bryan Kehl - Deep/Injury/Dynasty sleeper

Defensive Back

Despite a plethora of injuries the Giants made a big improvement from 28th versus the pass in '06 to 11th last season. That looks good on paper but it's a statistic that was greatly aided by a front 7 that led the league with 53 sacks and often had quarterbacks running for their lives. Surprisingly it was 11 year veteran Sam Madison who was the only starter to play in all 16 regular season games. Madison returns for a 12th season but at age 34, is clearly in the twilight on an excellent career. In his prime Madison was one of the leagues premier cover men but he has never been particularly fond of contact or run support. As such he has been avoided by offenses throughout his career and has never been a viable fantasy option, not even for owners in corner required leagues... As mentioned previously, coach Coughlin doesn't like to start rookies if he can avoid it and Aaron Ross was no exception. Last year's first round pick battled a sore hamstring which slowed his development during camp but eventually even Coughlin couldn't keep him off the field. Ross entered the starting lineup in week 4 and made a huge splash right away with his first 4 starts producing 13 tackles, 1.5 sacks and 3 interceptions. Just about the time people began scrambling to pick him up Ross had a pair of 2-0 weeks followed by a flare up of the hamstring injury which was never 100% for the rest of the season. If the Giants are going to provide us with any production from the corner position it would most likely come from Ross, but don't expect much. To put thing is perspective, the most productive Giants corner over the past 4 seasons was R.W. McQuarters who totaled just 52 tackles and was #42 among corners in '06. There is a sleeper here in second round pick Terell Thomas out of USC. At 6'0" and 202 pounds he is the biggest of the New York corners and could prove to be the most physical. Thomas will likely be groomed as the eventual replacement for Madison. He will see action this season but barring a rash of injuries is unlikely to gain a starting role before next season. Keep an eye on Ross when the season opens and tuck Thomas away in your memory just in case, but don't waste a draft pick on any of these guys... The safety position is a completely different story when it comes to fantasy production. For several years Gibril Wilson has been among the games most productive defensive backs. With Wilson in a Raiders uniform this season, the question becomes was it all him or was it the scheme? For someone to put up that kind of stellar numbers with such consistency, it has to be a little of both. The club is unsettled at the safety positions heading into camp. James Butler was named the starter on the eve of week one last season, beating out Will Demps who was subsequently released. That was a move the club may have regretted as Butler proved to be a very average player. Where Demps totaled 74-26 with a sacks, forced fumble, 2 recoveries and a pair of picks in '06. Butler started 13 games posting a meager 45 tackles and made almost no contribution in the big play columns. He will enter camp as the starter but don't be surprised if he finished the season (or maybe even training camp) as a backup at both positions... The Giants made a pair of significant off season additions at safety. Both first round pick Kenny Phillips and free agent pickup Sammy Knight are likely to have prominent roles in the defense. Despite Coughlin's disdain for rookies, Phillips will be a strong contender for the FS position right from the start. He was the best safety in this year's draft and there is always pressure for first round picks to show immediate production. Beside that, the club simply doesn't have anyone better. Phillips is a bigger, faster, more physical player than was Wilson. All that remains to be seen is if he has as much heart. Even if he doesn't win the job right away, there is little doubt that Phillips will be given his shot at some point during the season. I like this kid and have big expectations of him, if not this season then certainly down the road. He has proven nothing so don't gamble on him when there are still proven players on the board but don't think he'll slip into the late rounds... Knight has become the ultimate rent-a-safety but he's been productive virtually everywhere he has landed. With 82 tackles and 5 picks he was the #1 safety in '02. Two years in Miami produced mediocre tackle numbers but enough big plays for a pair of top 20s. 71-20 with 6 takeaways and 2.5 sacks was good enough for a top 5 with the Chiefs in '05, followed by a 74 tackle season for KC in '06. Then there was last season when Knight broke the curse of the Jacksonville safeties and finished with a mark of 79-14, 4 picks and another top 5. Every time he signs somewhere the experts say he's too slow, is no more than a backup and now at age 33 are adding in too old. Yet all Knight does is produce. He may enter camp at #2 on the depth chart but I have a hard time believing the Giants signed Knight to be a backup. He is always available late on draft day and is a better option than most at that stage of the game

Fantasy Prospects

FS Kenny Phillips - Strong sleeper with top 10 potential
SS Sammy Knight - Risky but will be productive when he gets his chance
SS/FS James Butler - Minimal production at best
CB Sam Madison - No value
CB R.W. McQuarters - Injury sleeper
CB Aaron Ross - Sleeper in corner required leagues
CB Corey Webster - No value

Dallas Cowboys

Defensive Line

I've talked about it before to there is no need to rehash the 3-4 DL thing. Here are some quick numbers that speak volumes about the fantasy value of the Cowboys linemen. In '06 Jason Ferguson led the Dallas DL with 32 tackles and Kenyon Coleman led them in sacks with 4. Last season Chris Canty topped both the tackle and sack columns with a mark of 30-13-3.5 and was the only lineman with more than 22 solo stops. That pretty much sums it up. It's not that there is a lack of talent among this group. It's simply that their numbers are a product of the scheme and the scheme is not fantasy friendly to linemen. Every year it seems that someone in the league manages to outperform the limitations of the 3-4. Head Coach Wade Phillips is looking for someone to do that for him like Luis Castillo did two year ago in San Diego. Jason Hatcher or Marcus Spears could be that guy but both will be available on waivers if it happens.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Jason Hunter - Deep sleeper with limited upside at best
DE Marcus Spears - Deep sleeper with limited upside at best
DE Chris Canty - minimal value at best
NT Jay Ratliff - No value
NT Tank Johnson - No value

Linebacker

Linebacker has been a deep position for the Cowboys over the past few years and this season will be no different. They traded former starting ILB Akinola Ayodele to Miami but not until after signing Zach Thomas to fill his spot next to Bradie James on the inside. Demarcus Ware is entrenched on the outside and Greg Ellis is supposedly still the starter opposite him, which leaves '06 first round pick Bobby Carpenter, '07 first round pick Anthony Spencer and '05 second round pick Kevin Burnett standing on the sideline. That's a lot of money to have tied up in backup players. The problem for us is that all of these guys will have some role in the defense and it will come at the expense of someone else. With 7 guys sharing 4 jobs, something will have to give. The one guy who is sure to be there on nearly every play is Demarcus Ware. In 2006 he became the first Cowboys LB this decade to finish among the top 20 and he backed it up with another strong finish last season. As with any productive 3-4 OLB, Ware didn't do it the conventional way. 26 sacks, 9 forced fumbles and a few other big plays have supplemented his very mediocre 59 and 60 tackles respectively over the past two seasons and like all outside backers in this scheme, consistency has been an issue. Nearly a third of the time in '07, Ware totaled five or fewer fantasy points. That's hard to swallow from the LB position for some owners. Ware's playing time will not be affected and he should once again finish in or near the top 20. He will obviously have much greater value in big play oriented scoring systems. It's hard to say what will happen between Spencer and Ellis for the short term, but there is no doubt the position will soon belong to Spencer. The more Ellis cries about it the sooner it's likely to happen. At this point we have to anticipate that the two will in some fashion continue the time share that started last season. Regardless of who holds the title of starter each is likely to take enough snaps from the other to render both completely useless to us. It's noteworthy that the two combined for a mark of 52-15-15.5 and 5 forced fumbles in '07. If the numbers are united under one name that player will have a lot of value in some leagues... There is some value at the OLB positions in Dallas but it's the inside guys that we need to be watching the closest. Particularly Thomas. We all know his history and that he will be a first ballot hall of fame guy one day, but does he have anything left and if he does, how will it translate into the box score in a 3-4 scheme? For starters I am very leery of the first question. I drafted Thomas as a rookie in 1996 (yes I've been doing this a long time) and he helped me to my first IDP championship. I've been a huge fan over the years but I really wonder if at age 35 (or soon to be), he shouldn't have retired after battling concussions most of last season. Thomas has made more tackles than any active player in the league and has now suffered several concussions over his 12 seasons. I believe he can be productive in the scheme but I don't expect the triple digit numbers he once put up in Miami and I don't expect him to make it through the season. There is also the consideration that Thomas, James, Burnett and Carpenter have all been working in various packages during the offseason. That's a strong indication that none of the 4 are going to be every down players. There is a chance that Thomas could serve as a solid #3 starter but considering that no Dallas ILB has totaled more than 73 tackles in a season since Dat Nguyen retired, there is also a very real chance that he will be no better than depth in large leagues. If you can get Thomas late in your draft he would be a worthy risk but let someone else take that chance in the middle rounds where he is likely to be taken... Bradie James has had more than ample opportunity to prove himself and though he has somehow managed to maintain a starting job, he has never been an impressive player either in NFL of FFL terms. With 5 seasons as a starting ILB he should have accidentally put up more than 73 tackles somewhere along the line. That hasn't happened yet and it won't happen this season with Burnett replacing him on passing downs. With 4 guys sharing time, it could take 2 injuries to make any of these guys an every down player. That said, I for one will not be at all surprised if the 2009 season opens with Burnett and Carpenter starting on the inside. Keep an eye on this situation as the season progresses. We could see a lot of change here between now and December.

Fantasy Prospects

ILB Zach Thomas - Serious injury risk and don't count on his as more than a #3 even if healthy
ILB Bradie James - Minimal value at best
ILB Bobby Carpenter - Deep sleeper with big upside
OLB Demarcus Ware - Big play guy with consistence issues, strong #3 starter in any league
OLB Anthony Spencer - Sleeper for owner in big play scoring systems
OLB Kevin Burnett - Sleeper with some upside if the right things happen
OLB Greg Ellis - Minimal value at best

Defensive Back

Strong safety Roy Williams gets the majority of the fantasy attention in the Dallas secondary each year, but he hasn't always lived up to expectations. The problem doesn't necessarily lie with Williams himself but rather the decisions of the coaching staffs he has worked with. It seems that every year there has been some brilliant new idea as to how the team can get the most out of him. His most successful season came as a rookie in '02 when he was allowed to play up near the line and was turned lose to wreak havoc on offenses. He has since spent time at FS which was a horrible mistake that cause his numbers to plummet, and at SS lining up off the ball and having a lot of down field responsibilities, which helped but didn't take advantage of his strengths. In '05 Parcells decided it was time to put Williams back in his element. He was moved back up near the line in many situations and once again was given some freedom. Williams responded with a very solid season in which he totaled 72 solo stops, a career tying 2.5 sacks, 10 passes defended and had a hand in 7 takeaways on the way to a top 15 finish. Unfortunately the team was hurting for a quality option at FS and having Williams in that role created a weakness behind him that was too often exploited. A failure to address that need heading into the '06 season forced them to pull him back into a center field role once again, which of course sent his tackle numbers into a tailspin. When Dallas inked Ken Hamlin last offseason. my ears perked up. When the report hit the wire that Wade Phillips planned to have Williams line up just 7 yards deep as he had during his two most successful seasons, I immediately began scanning all my dynasty leagues looking for anywhere I could get my hands on him. Last season started and all was well until suddenly, like Adam Archuleta and Michael Lewis before him, the hard hitting, run stuffing, playmaking Williams was too much a liability in coverage and the coaching staff wanted to make him a part time player. What the heck is that all about? This is a guy who has double digit passes defended for 3 consecutive years, has 19 interceptions since '02 including 5 in 2006, and was even voted to the Pro Bowl again last year. Yet suddenly he can't cover anyone? There has been a lot of talk between Williams and the coaching staff over the offseason. and several people have come to his defense, including owner Jerry Jones and many of his teammates. It looks as if Williams will remain a Cowboy for at least one more season and see if his second year in the Phillips scheme works out any better. He will however, take a seat in some passing situations. Corner Anthony Henry has reportedly been replacing Williams in the dime package but there has thus far been no word on his status in the nickel. Some fantasy owners have seen these reports and may be overreacting a bit. This is basically the same situation that occurred down the stretch last season. It didn't completely ruin Williams numbers then and it likely won't ruin them now. He played in 15 regular season games last year and totaled 73 solo stops, falling short of 6 fantasy points only 3 times while reaching double digits a very respectable 8 times, including 4 after week 10. Williams will still have plenty of opportunity to make tackles, where he will be hurt is in the big play and passes defended columns. The 2 interceptions and 5 PD in '07 were both career lows. He will never be a top 10 DB in this situation but Williams should still make a solid option as a #3 starter for us... Coming off a top 10 season for the Seahawks in '06, many owners had grand expectations of Ken Hamlin last year. If you read this column you weren't one of those owners. This is what I wrote last year and it stands true still. "He's a very active big play threat who averaged better than 70 tackles, 5 takeaways and 10 passes defended over his 3 full seasons in Seattle. The Cowboys defense will welcome his skills but the situation he come to is nearly certain to curtail his production. While Williams is up there getting acquainted with the linebackers, Hamlin will be lining up 15 yards deep and playing a lot of center field. He will have a fair share of big play opportunity but may be hard pressed to reach the 60 tackle mark". Hamlin went 45-17 with 5 picks last season and should post similar number in '08... Terance Newman is the poster boy for the rookie corner rule. The 5th overall pick in '03 was immediately inserted as a starter. That season he recorded a career best 66 tackles, 5 takeaways and a top 20 FF rating. His totals have declined in every season since, though he seems to have settled into the mid 50s range in tackles over the past three seasons. Newman has established himself as one of the leagues top cover men but with the addition of Adam (don't call me Pacman) Jones, it will be difficult for offenses to avoid him this season. If Jones is reinstated as expected, he will pair with Newman to give Dallas one of the leagues best tandems on the outside. Add in Anthony Henry who would start for most NFL teams, and first round pick Mike Jenkins, and you get an exceptionally talented and deep corner position that may just be the best in the league. With Jones in the mix it's hard to gauge where the production will lie with this group but recent history tells us that none of the corners are likely to have great value. That could change of course if Jenkins somehow ends up as a starter. At that point the rookie corner rule would come into play.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Roy Williams - Quality #3 starter with some upside
FS Ken Hamlin - No better than respectable depth
CB Terance Newman - Possible backup in corner required leagues
CB Anthony Henry - Injury sleeper at best
CB Adam (don't call me Pacman) Jones - Backup in corner required leagues
FS Pat Watkins - Injury sleeper with marginal potential
CB Mike Jenkins - Injury sleeper for corner required leagues

Washington Redskins

Defensive Line

Wouldn't you know that literally hours after I had written about how badly the Redskins needed a pass rush threat to work opposite Andre Carter, Phillip Daniels blows out his knee in the opening practice of training camp and the club completes a trade with Miami that brings Jason Taylor to Washington. You hate to say an injury is a positive and we wish Daniels the best, but realistically this just may have been the best thing that could have happened to this defense. In 2006 Washington finished dead last in sacks with a pathetic 19. Despite doing very little to address the shortcoming from a personnel standpoint, they managed to improve to a more respectable 33 in '07. Andre Carter was the one bright spot last season when he reached double digit sacks for the second time in his career. Not only did his 10.5 lead the club, the rest of the DL combined totaled only 11.5. As a rookie in '02 Carter posted 12 sacks and was a top 10 lineman with the Niners. Injuries followed by the change to a 3-4 scheme in which he didn't fit, eventually derailed his career. He escaped to Washington in '06 where he was able to return home to defensive end. It took him a while to get going but when he went 27-6-4 over the final 5 games that season, the writing was on the wall. Carter finished 2007 at 43-12-10.5 with 4 forced fumbles and a return to the top 10. Don't overlook him thinking this was a one year thing. Carter was the 7th overall pick in '02 for a reason. He's solid versus the run and an excellent pass rusher. Now that the club has landed a bookend like Taylor, Carter could explode... Taylor is a perennial 40+ tackle and double digit sack guy who hasn't finished outside the top 10 since an injury shortened '99 season. He'll turn 34 during the season but is coming off an '07 campaign that produced 47-9-11 and yet another top 10, it's clear that he hasn't lost a thing just yet. With Taylor and Carter, the Redskins have gone from a lame, single sided pass rush, to having one of the premier DE tandems in the league. Taylor will make everyone around him better as offenses now have to game plan against a pair of outstanding ends. These two could easily put up 25 sacks between them and both are very likely to end up among the top 10... Rookie free agent Chris Wilson replaced Daniels in passing situations last season and tied LB Marcus Washington for second on the team with 4 sacks. His role will be reduced if not eliminated this year with the club now boasting a pair of stellar every down ends. At just 241 pounds Wilson has little chance of becoming more than a third down specialist but he could prove to be successful in that role and may be used to spell the starters once in a while. Prior to the Taylor addition the club had made very little effort to fortify the position. The only additions being 7th round pick Rob Jackson and former Viking injury bust Erasmus James. Jackson is a run stuffing type with little pass rush ability or potential. James was a first round pick of the Viking in '05 but has spent most of his 3 year career rehabbing from knee injuries. He had ACL surgery in December and may not play a single down this year. It might work out perfectly for Washington who can now let James have plenty of time to recover. He may be ready to step in when Taylor retires in a year or two... Washington is in decent shape at tackle but they lack a true impact player at that position. Cornelius Griffin is a dependable veteran who anchors the run defense. In his first season with the team ('04) Griffin put up career best numbers of 55-15-5.5 and was the #3 DT. His numbers have steadily declined since then until he was just 28-14-2.5 in '07, and the 36th ranked DT. Some of his decline can be directly attributed to the lack of a space eating undertackle to soak up double teams on the inside. In 2006 the club tried then rookie 6th round pick Kedric Golston in that role with moderate success. Last season they gave '06 5th round pick Anthony Montgomery a shot with similar results. There is little for us to get excited about here although the presence of Taylor could open up opportunities for Griffin as well. Owners in search of interior linemen may want to take a shot on Griffin as depth with a little upside.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Jason Taylor - Perennial top 10 stud!
DE Andre Carter - Likely on his way to a second straight top 10 season
DE Chris Wilson - Pass rush specialist with minimal value
DE Demetric Evans- No value
DE Erasmus James - Coming off serious injury and will not be 100% this season, dynasty sleeper at best
DE Rob Jackson - No value
DT Cornelius Griffin - Decent backup if you must start tackles
DT Anthony Montgomery - No value
DT Kedric Golston - No value

Linebacker

If they can avoid injuries the Redskins are in good shape at linebacker, at least for the short term. They are however, getting a little long in the tooth at a couple of positions. London Fletcher is 33 years old but he's a well proven commodity who has shown no signs slowing down. Despite being a little undersized, durability has never been an issue with Fletcher who has not missed a game in his 10 year career. Since the '99 season he has reached triple digit tackles 4 times, including each of the past three seasons, and has never fallen short of 89. He's a proven playmaker as well. In 9 seasons as a starter he's totaled 27.5 sacks, intercepted 14 passes (7 in the past 2 years) forced 10 fumbles and recovered 8. For 8 consecutive seasons he's finished among the fantasy games top 15 linebackers and 6 times he's been well inside the top 10. They just don't come any more dependable than that. Fletcher may be in the twilight of his career but seems likely to continue playing at a high level at least until his contract with Washington expires in a couple of years. The Redskins have made no significant changes or additions in the front 7 so there is no reason to expect a great overall improvement nor is there anyone to compete with Fletcher for the team tackle crown. As such we can count on him to produce very similar numbers to the 100-28-0 with 10 passes defended and 3 picks of last season... The Redskins aren't particularly deep at linebacker and once you get past Fletcher they are on thin ice when it comes to injury issues. A healthy Marcus Washington is one of the leagues best and most productive strong side linebackers. In his first two season with the club ('04 & '05) he averaged 80 solo tackles and his four years with the Skins have produced 19.5 sacks. He managed 6 sacks over the past two seasons, including 4 in '07, but missed four games last season and two in '06 due to hamstring injuries that have plagued him for the better part of two years. The injuries have shown up clearly in his overall production and limited him to just 32 tackles in 12 game a year ago. At 30 years of age Washington if far from over the hill but hamstring issues can be a chronic problem. With poor numbers in consecutive seasons, no one is going to be drafting Washington but keep an eye on him in September. He may be a worthy pickup once the war of attrition begins and players start dropping... Roger (Rocky) McIntosh is a player with good upside who also has durability issues. The Redskins second round pick in '06 saw limited action as a rookie but entered last season as a starter on the weak side. He was a hot commodity early on with 55 tackles through week 9 and was on pace for a mark of 110-26-6 when suddenly the bottom fell out. McIntosh had battled a shoulder injury that initially happened in week three and resurfaced in week 8. He played in week 9 posting his best numbers of the season with an 11-1-1, but it was basically his final hurrah. He continued to play with the injury but never made an impact for the rest of the year. His season ended abruptly with a torn ACL and MCL in December. McIntosh is working back from that injury and the organization is optimistic that he will be ready for the season opener if not training camp, but during his rehab it was reported that there may be a degenerative condition in the knee that could shorten his career considerably. Last year's numbers clearly tell us that this guy can play and can be very productive if he can stay on the field. There is a lot of risk involved but keep an eye on the rehab this summer and don't hesitate to grab him as a backup if it looks like he will be ready... Another guy to keep a watchful eye on here is second year pro H.B. Blades. A lack of great measurables made him a 6th round pick last season but this kid was an absolute tackling machine with 268 stops over his final two years of college at Pittsburgh. He saw very limited action last season when his own sore knee keep him from earning a bigger role and veteran Khary Campbell was called on to fill in for McIntosh. Bladed had the knee scoped over the offseason. and should be 100% for camp. He's way under the radar at this point but if McIntosh isn't ready or Fletcher goes down, grab this kid before he has a chance to show off for the rest of the owners in your league.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB London Fletcher - Stud, top 10
WLB Rocky McIntosh - Injury risk with big upside
SLB Marcus Washington - Injury risk, potential quality depth
WLB Khary Campbell - Injury sleeper with limited potential
MLB H.B. Blades - Injury sleeper with strong potential

Defensive Back

Beyond the emotional trauma surrounding the tragic death of Sean Taylor during last season. His loss leaves the team short on talent at a position they expected to have covered for years to come. The adjustment that was made last season was to shift 6th overall pick LaRon Landry to free safety and plug in second year pro Reed Doughty at SS. Entering camp the question we must find an answer to is, will they leave it that way or was free agent FS Stuart Schweigert signed to start so Landry could go back to SS? Anyone sitting on Landry in a dynasty league will be wishing for the later. Landry got off to a slow and inconsistent start as a rookie but began hitting his stride in about week 7. He had reeled off a streak of 6 very productive games over a 7 week period when the switch came, and Landry failed to reach 4 tackles in a game the rest of the regular season. If the club leaves him at FS he will have more big play opportunity but will be working well off the ball which will seriously limit his tackle opportunity. As a FS Landry would likely post tackle numbers in the area of 60 and enough big plays to go with them to make him a quality backup or #3 starter at best. If he goes back to SS he will work much closer to the line and would likely reach 75+ in the tackle column, and be a solid #2 with upside... Doughty did an adequate job when called upon last season and will get an opportunity to contend for a starting assignment. The coaching staff will likely look at all their options including the addition of another solid safety (recently released Greg Wesley comes to mind) when teams begin trimming rosters. If they don't add someone else, it will come down what the coaches think works best, Doughty at SS and Landry at free or Schweigert at free and Landry at strong. My money would go on Schewigert as a starter. This guy took a lot of flak in Oakland but ultimately he didn't do a bad job for them. He's an experienced starter who is fast and solid in coverage. He's not a particularly physical guy and will take a ride now and then but when he can get a hand on the ball carrier, he will get him on the ground. In '05 and '06 Schweigert posted 72 and 86 tackles respectively. It's highly unlikely that he would have that much opportunity in the Redskins scheme but he could prove to be decent depth for us... If they can get everyone healthy and happy at the same time, corner will be a strength for the Redskins. Doing that however, may prove a daunting task. Starter Carlos Rogers is coming off a major knee injury suffered last October and is not progressing particularly well. Word is that he will not be ready for training camp and could open the season on the PUP list. A healthy Rogers is a key to the success of this team as he's a big physical corner who can match up with the leagues bigger receivers like T.O. and Plaxico Burress who the Skins face twice each, but he also has the speed and athleticism to stick with the smaller more nimble guys. His numbers have followed the traits of the rookie corner rule and as a third year starter, Rogers was on a slow box score pace before the injury. Even if he does make it back we should probably look elsewhere... Shawn Springs has been a healthy no show throughout offseason. activities as a reminder to the team that he's unhappy with his current contract. Springs is expected to join the club at the onset of camp and be ready for week one. He's a physical corner who doesn't shy away from contact but as a fantasy option he has proven to be wildly inconsistent from year to year. Since 2002 Springs has three times finished in the mid 20s or better, and three times landed in the low 60s or worse. There has been no in between. The 57 solo stops he put up last season were Springs best tackle numbers since his early days in Seattle in the late 90s. With or without Rogers in the lineup, Springs should be considered no more than a late round sleeper for depth in corner required leagues. That said, there have been some rumors that the club might take a look at Springs as an option at FS. He has the physical traits to make the move and at age 33 it just might add some years to his career. I can see this being a semi long term answer for the Redskins once Rogers is healthy and back in the fold but at this point Springs is their best corner and they need him there... If all goes right Fred Smoot would server as the club's nickel corner giving the Skins a trio of cover men to rival any in the league. As it looks right now Smoot will be forced into service as a starter, at least for a while. Like Rogers and Springs, Smoot doesn't doesn't have great production on his resume'. His best finish being #26 among corners in '04. The bottom line here is that you should look elsewhere for production at the corner positions.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Reed Doughty - Quality depth at best, with limited upside
FS/SS Laron Landry- Top 20 DB as a SS, top 35 as a FS, keep an eye on the situation during camp
FS Stuart Schweigert - Potential to be a solid backup in most leagues
S Vernon Fox - No value
CB Shawn Springs - Possible backup in corner required leagues
CB Fred Smoot - Minimal value
CB Carlos Rogers - Big injury risk, let someone else take the chance
CB Leigh Torrence - Injury sleeper in corner required leagues

Green Bay Packers

Defensive Line

The Packers have assembled a stable of quality talent on the DL in recent years. So much so in fact that they were able to trade a very good player in Cory Williams, and not miss him. At least they hope to not miss him. There are growing concerns at the tackle positions where last year's first round pick Justin Harrell has battled one injury after another dating all the way back to his senior year at Tennessee. The latest being a back injury that he suffered while lifting weights early in the offseason. Disc surgery caused Harrell to miss the majority of the offseason. program and threatens to sideline him well into camp if not into the season. Then there is Johnny Jolly who was expected to compete with Harrell for playing time but may be in jail on drug charges instead. Even if he avoids jail time Jolly could be suspended by the league. Maybe that will give him enough time to recover from the shoulder injury that landed him on IR last season and caused him to miss the team's offseason. OTAs. If both guys are down the club could turn to veteran Colin Cole who has also missed much of the offseason. program as he recovers from the broken forearm that knocked him out in week 7. Cole is expected to be ready at some point during camp but there is a real chance the Jolly and Harrell will not. The only contender for a starting job who is not coming off injury and/or in danger of not being ready by camp, is Ryan Pickett. With all the issues facing this group it's hard to tell who besides Pickett will get the most playing time. What we do know is that last season none of the Packers interior linemen put up more than 28 tackles. Williams was the best fantasy option with a mark of 26-9-7 and 3 forced fumbles. When healthy and/or out on bail, all four of these guys are starter quality NFL players but none of them seem likely to mount the kind of pass rush that Williams did. Avoid them all on draft day but keep an eye on the situation (and particularly Harrell) as it develops... The DE positions are much more stable and easier to call. Aaron Kampman has become one of the most consistent and dependable linemen in the fantasy game. He's reached 48 or more tackles in four consecutive seasons and has 26 sacks over the past two. Had he not missed some time with a back problem late last season Kampman would have turned in his second straight top 10 finish. He's strong versus the run, has become an excellent pass rusher through hard work and dedication, and never leaves the field. Kampman should be one of the top 5 linemen off the board in any draft... Cullen Jenkins was considered a sleeper entering last season when he replaced Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila as the starting end opposite Kampman. As it turned out the plan was for Jenkins to play on early downs where he is stronger versus the run, with KGB coming on to rush the passer on fresh legs. It couldn't have worked out better for the Packers as KGB posted his best sack total since 2004. Between them Jenkins and KGB were 49-22-10.5. Unfortunately the split numbers renders both players useless to us.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Aaron Kampman - Stud! possible top 5
DE Cullen Jenkins - No value
DE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila - Injury sleeper, rush specialist who could play full time if Jenkins were injured
DE Mike Montgomery - Injury sleeper at best
DT Johnny Jolly- Risky sleeper in tackle required leagues
DT Ryan Pickett - Minimal value, potential depth in large tackle required leagues
DT Justin Harrell - Deep sleeper in tackle required leagues
DT Colin Cole - Sleeper with limited upside in tackle required leagues

Linebacker

When the Packers drafted A.J. Hawk 5th overall in '06 it threw a knuckle ball into the whole LB situation in Green Bay. No one was sure what to expect. There were even rumors that Hawk would play in the middle and push IDP stud Nick Barnett to strong side. Of course that never happened. What did happen is that as a rookie Hawk was plugged in at WLB where he went 84-37-4 with 4 takeaways, 7 passes defended and was a top 15 linebacker. In the process he seemed to have relegated Barnett to second fiddle. Barnett's numbers didn't just slump a little, they dropped 31 tackles from the previous season and were nothing short of horrible. His 61-44-1.5 were by far the worst of his career and dropped him from the #6 MLB in '05 to #19. After seeing what happened in '06 we all went into last season expecting Hawk to be the guy for the Packers and looking for another top 15 form him. Meanwhile Barnett was all but discarded and owners were picking him up in the backup rounds late in the draft. Knuckle balls are hard to hit because you never know where they are going and the '07 season proved to be an even bigger surprise. Just when we thought we had it all figured out. Here comes Barnett with the most productive season of his career. 102-29-3.5 and 3 takeaways landed him as the #4 MLB and securely in the top 10 overall. Meanwhile Hawk's numbers took an unexpected dive to 78-27-1, a #20 finish among OLBs and a 40 something overall. The way it's gone over the past two years, there is no way to know what to expect in '08. Both of these guys are exceptional players. They are fast and athletic playmakers with a nasty streak, and make the Packers one of the leagues best linebacker corps. In last year's EOTG I wrote "Barnett is too good a player for 60 tackles to be his norm, expect him to rebound in '07". When I wrote that I certainly didn't expect him to step up like he did and I don't necessarily believe the big numbers of last season will be "the norm" either. Even though it's been feast or famine with the two of them so far, I have to believe that eventually the numbers will level out and both guys will be quality options for us. For the most part fantasy owners tend to put too much emphasis on last year's numbers and that will be the case with Barnett and Hawk. As we have already seen, both of these guys have big upside but come with risk as well. It's a crap shoot with them but I expect Barnett to come back to earth a little and Hawk to rebound in his third season. Ultimately Barnett should hold the edge in fantasy value based, if nothing else, on the fact that he is at the traditionally more productive MLB position and has a longer track record. Let someone else step up real early on Barnett this year. Then sit back and grab Hawk in the later rounds and hope it's his turn... Brady Poppinga has settled in at SLB over the past three seasons but he will face a challenge this year from free agent addition Brandon Chillar. Neither of these players will have a chance to make an impact in the box score from the SLB position... There was a time when Abdul Hodge was though to have a chance at breaking into the lineup somewhere. Unfortunately the talented former third round pick has never been able to stay healthy long enough to prove himself. Hodge has battled knee problems since his junior year at Iowa and spent last season on IR because of it. He is reportedly healthy entering camp this year. If either Barnett or Hawk are injured, a healthy Hodge could make a quality replacement for both the Packers and us.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB Nick Barnett - Possible #3 starter, quality depth at worst
WLB A.J. Hawk - Solid #1 or excellent #2
SLB Brady Poppinga - Minimal value at best
MLB Abdul Hodge - Deep/injury sleeper
OLB Brandon Chillar- Injury sleeper

Defensive Back

Green Bay was once a hotbed of DB production but since the retirement of LeRoy Butler and the free agent defection of Darren Sharper, no one has captured the spirit. Early on last season it looked as if Atari Bigby might be the guy to rekindle the fire. After spending the 2006 season on the practice squad, Bigby had a very impressive training camp that carried over into the preseason. His aggressive hard hitting style and all out play on every snap eventually won him the favor of the coaching staff and a starting job at SS. Early last season Bigby showed us all why the decision was made. Over the first half of the season he seemed to be everywhere. Through week eight Bigby was averaging just under 6 tackles a game and was on pace for 90+. Then he seemed to run out of gas. Bigby failed to reach 6 tackles in any of the final 9 games and finished with a mediocre 66-20 on the season. He will need to regain the magic to hold off last year's third round pick Aaron Rouse who is now in the mix for a starting job at one of the safety positions. The 223 pound Rouse began his college career as an outside linebacker before moving to SS as a junior. The knock on him coming out of Virginia Tech was that he had a tendency to make mental mistakes and would miss some tackles. One scout wrote, "Rouse sometimes comes downhill like a torpedo, then whiffs". He joined the Packers having played safety for just two years and those are the kind of things that can be coached. What can't be coached is competitiveness, hustle and heart. No one questions those aspects of Rouse's game. He's not particularly fast but has good ball skills and was productive in college, posting 134 tackles, 4 picks a sack a fumble recovery and a pair of forced fumbles in 23 starts. Rouse is a versatile player who could possibly play FS but would better fit as an in the box SS. Some have speculated that it may be FS Nick Collins who is in more danger of loosing his job to Rouse. I don't see that happening, though I could see the coaching staff using the possibility to build a fire under Collins. The Packers used a second round pick on him in '05 because they needed a playmaker to replace Sharper. Collins recorded just 1 pick and 2 forced fumbles as a rookie but got a pass because he was still learning. He began to come on in his second season with 3 picks, a pair of forced fumbles and 14 passes defended. Last season however, he seemed to regress. Collins battled a knee sprain throughout November and into December but had not been productive prior to the injury either. He played in 13 games with no takeaways and just 5 passes defended. Rouse got the call while Collins sat out, posting 11 tackles and a pair of picks. The Packers will enter camp with all three players battling for for the two positions. The coaching staff will undoubtedly look at all the different combinations so anything can happen here. What we know for certain is that there is a lot of potential to be found here once we find out who is starting. My personal opinion is that in the end Bigby will be the odd man out and Rouse the guy to have... Despite his very average production last season, owners in corner required leagues shouldn't ignore Charles Woodson. In 8 seasons with the Raiders he never finished inside the top 20 and had recorded a total of 17 interceptions. Woodson came to Green Bay and broke out for 8 interceptions and 20 passes defended in '06, finishing as the sixth rated corner. His '07 season was much less spectacular but Woodson still managed 52 tackles and 4 picks despite missing a couple of games while fighting both turf toe and a sore knee for much of the season. There are concerns that the knee could continue to be a problem but Woodson has been rehabbing it in Green Bay over the offseason. and is expected to be ready for camp. He's certainly worth a shot in the later stages of the draft and could post 60 tackles and 4-6 picks... Al Harris will continue to hold down the other corner job but has never shown any value. He's reached 50 tackles just once in his career and his only top 35 corner ranking came in '05 when he recorded all 3 of his career sacks... With Woodson's knee being a possible problem, keep an eye on second round pick Patrick Lee. He was a one year starter at Auburn and may be a bit raw, but is a speedy physical corner with a lot of upside. He will contend with veteran Jarrett Bush and second year pro Tramon Williams for a place in the pecking order and may claim the nickel duties very early.

Fantasy Prospects

FS Nick Collins - Likely a decent backup with some big play upside
SS Atari Bigby - Potential #2 starter if he can hold onto the job
SS/FS Aaron Rouse - Sleeper with strong upside, especially if he lands at SS
CB Charles Woodson - Likely a #2 starter in corner required leagues
CB Al Harris - No value
CB Patrick Lee - Injury sleeper, rookie corner rule would apply
CB Tramon Williams - No value
CB Jarrett Bush - No value

Minnesota Vikings

Defensive Line

Despite finishing #1 versus the run and totaling a respectable 38 sacks last season, the Vikings DL gave us no strong IDP options last season. When you realize that 24.5 of those sacks were recorded by linemen it becomes even more puzzling. A deeper look reveals that 10 different linemen had at least 1 tally in the sacks column, but none had more than 5. In fact the team sack crown went to MLB E.J. Henderson with 5.5. There is however, little chance for a repeat performance of these strange numbers. For the past couple of years the club had been getting by while waiting for the day that their '04 and '05 first round picks Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James would become the bookends they were drafted to be. When James re-injured his knee late last season and Udeze was diagnosed with Leukemia, it was time to move on. Rather than investing more draft picks and continuing to wait for youngsters to develop, the Vikings were able to hit a home run by trading for '07 league sack leader Jared Allen, who is arguably the best every down DE in the game. After returning from a 2 game suspension last September, Allen went on to post 55 solo tackles, 15.5 sacks and his second consecutive #1 ranking. In three seasons as a starter Allen has finished no worse than #6 and has totaled no fewer than 50 tackles. There is always some risk when a star player changes teams but the defensive schemes in Minnesota and Kansas City are very similar so don't count on that to happen here. With Kevin and Pat Williams demanding the attention of multiple blockers on many occasions, Allen could even find that he has more single blocking than in previous years, particularly on running plays. He may not repeat as sack king but Allen can be counted on to repeat the top 5 ranking... Opposite Allen the Vikings seem poised to use a combination of Ray Edwards and Brian Robison. Both players saw extensive action last season with Edwards totaling 26-3-3.5, 2 FF and a recovery in 12 games, while Robison used his share of the playing time to go 20-5-5 with a forced fumble. At 6'6" 260 and 6'6" 270 respectively, neither Edwards nor Robison will necessarily be restricted to pass rush roles. Edwards enters camp as the starter but the two are expected to compete for the job. We need to keep a sharp eye on this situation. With Allen and the Williams boys getting all the attention, the other DE position will see single blocking on nearly every snap. No team faced more pass attempts than the 646 Minnesota saw last season and that trend is likely to continue. If either Edwards or Robison land an every down role he will have a golden opportunity and become very productive... In his first two pro seasons Kevin Williams combined for 89 solo tackles and 21.5 sacks. Much of that production however, came while he was lining up at DE. The last three seasons have produced just 88 tackles and 10.5 sacks including a career low mark of 29-8-2 in '07. The lacking production isn't necessarily a bad reflection on Williams though. In fact the Vikings were so tough versus the run that in many cases the offense didn't even bother trying or if they did the ran outside. As a result the Vikings faced just 379 rushing attempts on the season. By contrast the Dolphins were run at 554 times on the year. Kevin is an outstanding player but you may not be able to tell it by his box scores again this year... Pat Williams in anomaly. Despite lining up at the undertackle position where he is constantly double teamed in a scheme where his position is basically designed to free up the other (3 technique) tackle, He somehow manages to post tackle numbers in the 40+ range and finish in or near the top 10 interior linemen year after year. His 43-19-2 was aided by a lucky interception last season that bumped him up the rankings a little further than he deserved (he finished #5 among tackles) but Williams remains a solid option as a #2 starter in tackle required leagues.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Jared Allen - Last year's #1 DL should pick up right where he left off
DE Ray Edwards - Sleeper at best, may not be back from injury
DE Brian Robison- Injury sleeper with limited potential
DT Kevin Williams - Potential backup in tackle required leagues
DT Pat Williams - Decent #2 starter in tackle required leagues
DT Fred Evans - Injury sleeper at best

Linebacker

After four seasons of bouncing from one LB position to another with barely mediocre production, E.J. Henderson found a home at MLB in new defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier's scheme. He finally put up the kind of numbers that were expected of him as a second round pick back in '03. Instead of trying to mold Henderson to fit the needs of the scheme as previous coordinators had attempted to do, Frazier built a defense that suited Henderson's strengths perfectly. Henderson is a 245 pound head banger who loves to lower the boom and is best when allowed to play aggressively. Working behind what is arguably the games best DT tandem, Henderson was able to stay clean and was finally given more freedom to attack the ball. The result was possibly the best production by a Vikings LB since Jack Del Rio last suited up. If there is a weakness to his game it would be pass coverage where Henderson is slightly above average and has made strides. He has just 2 career interceptions and doesn't score many passes defended but Henderson's big hits forced 3 fumbles last season and he recovered 2. Together with his 95 solo stops and team high 5.5 sacks, Henderson was among the top 15 linebackers in nearly any scoring system and top 10 in most. He should be able to pick up right where he left off... After spending his rookie season on IR with a knee injury, 2006 first round pick Chad Greenway finally had a chance to make an impact in '07. He captured the WLB job during camp and was off to a good start when out of the blue in mid October the coaching staff decided to pull him from some of the nickel packages. The spin they put on it was that Greenway and Ben Leber both have the same skill set and they wanted to get Leber a more fair share of the playing time. Greenway's production dipped for a couple of weeks but it was after he had supposedly been pulled from the nickel package that he turned in his biggest score of the season going 5-2 with a pick, a fumble recovery and a par of passes defended against the Raiders in week 10. In fact, if you pull out the week 13 game against Detroit (who didn't even attempt to run the ball at that point), Greenway averaged nearly 13.5 fantasy points over the second half of the season falling short of double digits just one other time when he was 4-1 versus Chicago. There has been no indication from the coaching staff as to who will work with Henderson in the nickel packages this season. That's something we will try to determine during the preseason. The bottom line here is that Greenway is now 2 years removed from the knee injury and finished last season strong. He's unlikely to challenge Henderson for top fantasy billing but should make quality depth for us at the least and will likely be a solid #3 starter if not better... Although it may have been simply because Greenway wasn't asked to blitz from the weak side, the one thing Leber brought to the table last season that Greenway didn't was some pass rush production. His 5 sacks tied for 2nd on the team but were far short of enough to compensate for his meager 51 solo tackles. Barring an injury to Greenway which could prompt a move to WLB for Leber, he will make very little fantasy impact.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB E.J Henderson - Excellent #2 starter with top 10 potential
WLB Chad Greenway - Quality depth at worst, likely a solid #3 starter
SLB Ben Leber - Minimal value unless he changes positions
MLB Erin Henderson - Injury sleeper
OLB Heath Farwell - No value
OLB Derrick Pope - No value

Defensive Back

When you look at everything that aligned for him last season, it comes as no surprise that Cedric Griffin led all corners in solo tackles with 82. At 6'2" and 205, Griffin is a big physical corner playing in a cover 2 scheme that is specifically designed to fit his type of skill set. In this scheme corners generally start closer to the line and have a lot of run support responsibilities to go with their coverage assignments. Being virtually impossible to run up the middle on the Williams boys, when teams did run it was most often outside the tackles. Then there is the already mentioned fact that opponents attempted 44 more passes against the Vikings than they did any other team in '07. That certainly kept the secondary busy. And finally there is the rookie corner effect. Although Griffin was a second year player, he had just a few pro starts under his belt and was far less experienced or proven than the other option teams had to throw at (Antoine Winfield). Most corners see their numbers decline as they gain experience but there are some who remain productive year after year. While he may not lead all corners in tackle again in '08, many of the same circumstances remain in place and he has the potential to do so. Despite the impressive tackle production a lack of big play contribution caused Griffin to finish just 9th among corners last season. With all the balls in the air you would have thought he could come down with at least a couple as he did in his rookie campaign, but Griffin posted a goose egg in the pick column. His only takeaways came in the form of 2 forced fumbles and 1 recovery. If he can show a improvement in that area, Griffin could well be a top 5 corner and a top 15 DB overall. Some of Griffin's main competition will come from Winfield. I say it every year, pound for pound this is one of the toughest guys in the league. At just 5'9" and 180 pounds, Winfield is a rare breed of corner who is annually among the leagues leading tacklers at the position. It doesn't hurt that he plays left corner in a cover 2, but Winfield was productive even without the help of the scheme. Had he not missed a couple of games in '04, and six games last year, Winfield would have a run of 5 consecutive seasons with 80+ tackles dating back to his final year in Buffalo when he piled up 94. He put up a lot of tackles during his tenure with the Bills but since coming to Minnesota, Winfield has come alive in the big play department as well. Over his first 5 pro seasons he recorded 6 interceptions. In 3+ season with in Minnesota he's put up 12. Through week 8 of last season Winfield had averaged nearly 7 solo stops a game and was on pace for an unheard of 109+. A hamstring injury took 4 games from him in mid season and a torn pectoral got 2 more at the end of the year. Winfield is healthy heading into training camp and is a candidate to be the top DB in any scoring system in '08... With runners being shut down or forced to the outside, and the nature of the cover 2 scheme placing the safeties so far off the ball at the snap, it's easy to understand why the Vikings safeties haven't been very productive in recent years. Neither of last year's starters reached 50 tackles and despite the free agent addition of Madieu Williams, it seems unlikely that one will approach the 60 mark this season. Cover 2 safeties are responsible for a deep half or sometimes deep third of the field. Their main function within the scheme is pass coverage and providing takeaways. With 17 picks in his first three years with the club, Darren Sharper has been a perfect fit for the Vikings. However his best tackle numbers in those three seasons was the 52 he totaled in '06. There just isn't enough production or consistency with him to warrant a roster spot in most leagues. I fear the same is inevitable for Williams as well. At just 193 pounds, he is much like Winfield when it comes to toughness. So much so in fact that he's had a tendency to hurt himself delivering big hits. He was a top 12 DB as a rookie in '04 when he displayed a great deal of versatility by starting games as an injury replacement at all 4 positions. His '05 season was derailed by a shoulder injury after just 4 games. Williams had a solid #12 finish among safeties in '06 and was on pace for the most productive year of his career in '07 before suffering a thigh injury that slowed him and eventually cost him 4 games. Williams was a playmaker for the Bengals with a hand in 11 turnovers in the past 29 games. He replaces Dwight Smith who was 44-7 with 4 picks and a forced fumble in 14 games last season. While there is little reason for optimism when it comes to tackle production, Williams is capable of 55-60 tackles and 6-8 turnovers in this situation, and could be a viable option as a backup DB (with upside) in some leagues.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Darren Sharper - Possible depth with limited potential
FS Madieu Williams- Probable depth with some upside
FS Tyrell Johnson - Injury/Dynasty sleeper with limited potential due to the scheme
CB Antoine Winfield - Solid #1 starter with potential to be the top overall DB
CB Marcus McCauley - Injury sleeper, probably serves as nickel corner
CB Cedric Griffin - Solid #1 in corner required leagues, quality #3 at worst for the rest of us

Chicago Bears

Defensive Line

Nothing worked out as expected with the Bears front 4 in '07. Instead of going to the Pro-Bowl in his second season, Mark Anderson followed up his 12.5 sack rookie campaign with just 4.5. Instead of settling as a backup behind Anderson, Alex Brown reemerged as the starter ahead of him. And instead of posting his normal 33 tackles and 7-8 sacks, Adewale Ogunleye piled up a career best 53 tackles and 9 sacks to finish 4th among defensive ends. All that makes a guy gun shy when trying to predict what will happen this season. Lets start with Anderson. Working as a 3rd down rush specialist limited his snaps as a rookie, so Anderson was only able to put 24 tackles with his big sack total and 4 forced fumbles. With visions of Robert Mathis dancing in their heads, the Bears coaching staff was so impressed that they elected to overlook the fact that Anderson checks in at only 240 pounds. He opened the '07 season as a starter and came out of the gate fast with 4 sacks and a forced fumble in four games. Then the bottom fell out. Teams began concentrating their blocking schemes to stop him. Soon the mental and physical toll of being doubled, chipped, cut etc, began taking it's toll. The 6 game stretch between weeks 4 and 11 produced 2 goose eggs and only 6 total tackles. After being run at, run over and generally manhandled. Anderson seemingly lost his confidence and the coaching staff had no choice but to get a bigger, more sturdy Brown back on the field. Anderson was never officially demoted but by mid November Brown was receiving an ample portion of the action in a time share that resembled the previous season. Anderson was ultimately lost to a knee injury in week 15. After a very strong finish that included a mark of 22-5-3, 2 forced fumbles, a recovery and an interception in the final 6 games, Brown was back working with the first team during minicamp. If he gets a chance to play full time Brown could put up very respectable numbers. He posted 40+ tackles and top 15 finishes 3 times in 4 years between '03 and '06, averaging nearly 6 sacks a season and forcing 11 fumbles. Unfortunately all the signs point toward a continued time share with Anderson which will ultimately hold them both back... Ogunleye may have profited from all the attention Anderson was getting but don't count on a repeat performance. The 53 tackles were by far a career best and the #4 finish among defensive ends ranked second only to his #3 in 2003 when he was 43-21-16 for the Dolphins. Those remain the only two times in his 8 year career that Ogunleye has exceeded 36 tackles or finished among the top 20. Even with the big numbers there was a serious consistency issue as well. All 9 of his sacks came in just 5 games while he posted 2 or fewer tackles in 8 contests. Let someone else step up for Ogunleye based on last years fluke overall numbers... Until Tommie Harris led all interior linemen with 8 sacks last season, it had been a long dry spell when it comes to quality production by a Bears DT. But even the sacks weren't enough to overcome his modest 31 tackles to make Harris top 10 at the position. It's hard to find consistent numbers at this position but there is some reason for optimism with Harris. He was on fire last season with 20 tackles and 7 sacks after just 8 games before being beset with a variety of nagging injuries that had him listed as questionable for 7 of the final 8 games. Harris played through the injuries that included hamstring, groin and finally knee problems, but he was clearly not the same player after week 8. One way of looking at his sudden surge of production is that he is finally ready to breakout and become the force the club expected when the used a first round pick on him. The other perspective would point out that his numbers just happened to spike in a contract year. He's not going to win you a championship by any stretch but Harris is worth some late round attention in tackle required leagues... After missing his first two seasons with injuries, former third round pick Dusty Dvoracek may be ready to battle incumbent Anthony Adams and rookie Marcus Harrison for playing time at undertackle. This position however, is highly unlikely to produce useful numbers for anyone.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Adewale Ogunleye - Inconsistent #2 starter at best
DE Alex Brown - Sleeper with potential to be a quality backup
DE Mark Anderson - Sleeper with big upside in the sack column but limited tackle value
DT Tommy Harris- Depth with a little upside in tackle required leagues
DT Dusty Dvoracek - No value
DT Anthony Adams - No value
DT Marcus Harrison - No value

Linebacker

Now that Brian Urlacher has a new contract in place there isn't much to wonder about when it comes to the Bears linebackers. Everyone should be happy campers and there are no training camp battles brewing. Urlacher remains the clear headliner here and has consistently been among the best in the fantasy game. Other than his injury shortened 2004 season, the nine year veteran hasn't missed a game and has totaled no fewer than 87 solo stops in any season. With 117 solo tackles and a wad of big plays, he was the #1 overall IDP in '02 and is currently on a three season run with 90+ tackles. He is however, much more than just a tackling machine. The 5 sacks and 5 interceptions he put up last season are a perfect way of showing his versatility. Urlacher can and does do it all. He's on a streak of 3 consecutive top 10 finishes and is likely to make it 4 in '08. The only possible concern with him would be the sore back and neck he battled at times last season. The back has supposedly healed and is a non issue. He had a minor surgical procedure after last season that by all accounts, has resolve the sore neck problem as well. Urlacher is good to go and should be one of the top 5 linebackers off the board in nearly any scoring system... Heading into last season there were some trying to make the argument that Lance Briggs had taken over as the top IDP option in Chicago. The Tampa 2 scheme used by the Bears has a tendency to push a lot of plays to the WLB position and Briggs was coming off an '06 season that had produced a career best 113 solo tackles along with a number of big plays. Maybe not so coincidentally, his big season came just as Briggs was at the end of his contract. He and the club could not come to an agreement on an extension so the Bears slapped the franchise tag on him last offseason. In the end Briggs agreed to play for the franchise tender with a promise that the club would not tag him again. Thus making '07 another contract year. He missed 2 games with injuries but still totaled a strong 83-19-3 and finished among the top 20 linebackers. Briggs got his payday from the Bears after the season so it will be intriguing to see what kind of production they get out of him in '08. Briggs shouldn't be far behind Urlacher on your draft board and is a solid bet to be an excellent #2 starter wit top 10 potential... Hunter Hillenmeyer has secured his place in the starting lineup but playing SLB in the Bears scheme is a thankless job that gets little attention either in the media or the box scores... It was speculated last season that the club had drafted Michael Okwo with the specific intent to have him replace Briggs when the time came. Now that everyone has new contracts, Okwo will have a chance to become very good on special teams.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB Brian Urlacher - Top 10 stud
WLB Lance Briggs - Excellent #2 starter with top 10 potential
SLB Hunter Hillenmeyer - Injury sleeper
MLB Jamar Williams - Injury sleeper
WLB Michael Okwo - Injury sleeper

Defensive Back

Charles Tillman is another example of a consistently productive cover 2 corner. He's not quite on the same level as Antoine Winfield but had Tillman not missed a game or two in each of the past two seasons, he would be on a run of three consecutive years with 70+ tackles and 4 out of 5 all together. The odd year being an injury shortened 2004. Along with the solid tackle numbers, Tillman is no stranger to big plays. His 17 interceptions and 11 forced fumbles have helped him to 3 top 10 rankings at the corner position in 5 seasons including top billing in 2005. Tillman's numbers dipped a little last season when he finished at #13 with 66 tackles, 3 picks and 3 forced fumbles in 15 games, but he remains a solid #1 in corner required leagues and a decent #3 for the rest of us... Nathan Vasher has been the starter opposite Tillman for three seasons but he hasn't shared the same box score success. Vasher actually spent most of last season on the sideline trying to recover from a groin injury that eventually landed him on IR but in the two prior seasons he totaled just 41 and 33 tackles respectively. Vasher will return to the lineup but there is no reason to expect a change in his production... Last year's 7th round pick Trumaine McBride replaced Vasher for much of the season but fared little better. He will compete with Ricky Manning and and Daniel Manning for the nickel duties. Daniel Manning is a versatile player who has seen a lot of time at safety over his two pro seasons but the return of Mike Brown and the presence of 4th round pick Craig Steltz allows the coaching staff to shift Manning to a position of greater need. He has all the tools to be a very good corner and could settle in there for the long term, especially if Brown can stay healthy... The health of Brown is huge factor at the safety positions. He is capable of being one of the best safeties in the league but the club has to be getting tired of waiting. Brown hasn't played a full season since 2003 and has played in just 21 games since. It hasn't been small injuries either. A torn Achilles in '04, torn ligaments in his foot in '06 and an ACL in week 1 last year. Prior to all the injuries Brown had been a very productive player, finishing in the top 15 in each of his first three seasons. In '05 he made it through 12 games and was on pace for 84 solo tackles and half a dozen big plays. The question now is not only can he make it through a season but if he can will he be the same player? Brown is obviously a huge risk but may be worthy of a late round flier. At the least he's a guy we should keep an eye on during the preseason. The Bears have been shuffling players through the safety positions for the past few years as they have tried to patch the holes left by Brown's injuries, while searching for some long term answers. When Adam Archuleta didn't pan out last season the coaches turned to Brandon McGowan at SS and just may have discovered their guy. McGowan joined the team as an undrafted free agent in '05 and impressed enough to land a roster spot. He saw action as an injury replacement during his rookie season. In '06 a ruptured Achilles ended his year early. He came back healthy in '07 and made such an impression that the club felt comfortable in trading Chris Harris to Carolina. McGowan saw time in the nickel package early and made his first start at SS when Archuleta sat out week 4 with a hand injury. McGowan went 8-2 with a fumble recovery and after that his playing time began to steadily increase. An elbow injury knocked him out of action for a few weeks and by the time he returned in week 11, the coaching staff had soured on Archuleta and McGowan was soon installed as the starter. In all he made 7 starts on the season. In those starts the was 40-7 with a forced fumble, a recovery and 2 picks. It's not a lot to go on but those are some pretty impressive numbers none the less. McGowan signed a mid range one year tender this offseason. which could signal that the club is not completely sold on him yet, or it could be a sign that they are, and wanted to ensure he was going nowhere while they addressed more pressing issues like Briggs and Urlacher. Either way, he has another opportunity to make a statement. He's been working with the first team all offseason. and has reportedly continued to impress. There is a strong history of quality production from the Bears SS position. Archuleta averaged 5 tackles a game when he was starting last season and McGowan picked up right where he left off. In short, a lot of owners will overlook McGowan on draft day, don't be one of them. At the least he should be well up on the sleeper list at the position... The club has last year's 5th round pick Kevin Payne and rookie 4th rounder Craig Steltz working behind the starters at strong and free safety respectively but so far there is no reason to believe either of them will challenge for a starting job.

Fantasy Prospects

FS Mike Brown - Sleeper, possible #3 starter, major injury risk
SS Brandon McGowan - Quality #3 starter with #2 potential
FS Craig Steltz - Dynasty sleeper
CB/FS Danieal Manning - Injury sleeper
CB Charles Tillman - Quality #1 in corner required leagues, decent #3 for the rest of us
CB Ricky Manning - No value
CB Nathan Vasher - No value
CB Trumaine McBride - Injury sleeper at best

Detroit Lions

Defensive Line

The Lions were 23rd versus the run last season which is not a positive reflection on the DL. But with a very respectable 29 sacks credited to linemen, the blame for a 31st ranked pass defense doesn't fall on their shoulders this time around. In last year's EOTG I hammered Matt Millen for trading away James Hall who was the team's best pass rusher. Being one to give credit where it's due, that move turned out to be a very good one for the club. This offseason. the Lions parted ways with Shaun Rogers who is one of the leagues better defensive tackles. It would be easy to be critical of this decision as well, but lets hold judgment on this one for now. Sometimes to turn thing around a club has to make changes in their core players. Rogers will be missed but with Cory Redding, Shaun Cody, Chuck Darby and third round pick Andre Fluellen the position remains both solid and deep. That said, from a fantasy perspective there doesn't seem to be much cause for excitement with this group. Rogers managed to finish among the top 10 interior guys last season but he did it on the strength of 7 sacks. In fact Redding led the club's interior linemen with just 27 tackles. Detroit hasn't provided quality production at this position since Rogers went 49-14-4.5 back in 2004. With change comes opportunity and someone could step up. The most likely candidate being Redding who reached 39 solo stops and posted 7 sacks two years ago while working at end. He might be worth a late round shot in tackle required leagues but you would be best to pass on these guys in the draft and pick one of them up off the street if they prove deserving... The line stepped up as a whole in '07 but there remains room for improvement at end. Starters Dwayne White and Jared DeVries totaled just 13 sacks between them. White had owners scrambling to grab him after having the game of his life in week one. Those owners were soon throwing him back when he went 7-5-0 over the next 4 games combined. White had one other big game but failed to reach 5 fantasy points a total of 8 times in 14 starts. DeVries was not much better. He played in 14 games with a final total of 27-3-7, 3 forced fumbles and 3 recoveries. Take away his 6-1-3 and 2 forced fumbles against the Bears in week 2 and there isn't much left... The club has high hopes for last year's second round pick Ikaika Alama-Francis but they knew going in that he was going to be a project. Alama-Francis spent most of last season on the inactive list, seeing limited action in just 6 games. The Lions hope that at 280 pounds, he can eventually develop into a solid every down player for them. For that to happen he will need to improve every aspect of his game and particularly his play versus the run. For now they will be satisfied if he can emerge as at least a pass rush specialist. Alama-Francis wasn't particularly productive or impressive at Hawaii and scouts questioned both his toughness and desire heading into last year's draft. It looks like this project may be a long one... Detroit invested a 3rd round pick in another project this year. Cliff Avril played both OLB and DE during his days at Purdue. He worked out with the linebackers at the combine and improved his stock by running a 4.62 in the 40 while showing great agility and athleticism. As an end in college the 253 pound Avril had trouble holding up at the point of attack and was often overpowered. Many scouts thought he would have been a better fit as a 3-4 OLB at this level. There is however, no question about his desire. Avril will work hard to improve and will be given an opportunity to rush the passer as a rookie. He could be successful in that role but will have to improve greatly versus the run to become an every down player or a serious fantasy contributor.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Dewayne White - Minimal value at best
DE Ikaika Alama-Francis - Dynasty sleeper, raw talent with some upside
DE Jared DeVries - Minimal value
DE Cliff Avril - Dynasty sleeper
DT Cory Redding - Potential starter in tackle required leagues
DT Andre Fluellen - Dynasty sleeper in tackle required leagues
DT Chuck Darby - No value
DT Shaun Cody - No value

Linebacker

For several years the Lions have been in need of a serious talent infusion at the linebacker positions. They took the first step in 2006 by selecting WLB Ernie Sims ninth overall, but last season decided to give their attention to more pressing needs. Sims has been a great fit in the Detroit scheme. He's a very physical player despite being a little undersized at 6'0" and 230. What he lacks in size he makes up for in speed and tenacity. Sims has led the club in tackles over the past two seasons and his 96-38 mark in '07 was the highest total by a Detroit linebacker since the days of Chris Spielman. What he hasn't brought to the table so far in his young career, is playmaking ability. His two seasons have produced just 1 sack, 4 forced fumbles, 1 recovery, 1 pick and 3 passes defended. That's barely a single seasons worth of plays for many of the leagues better linebackers and the shortcoming drops Sims out of consideration as an LB1. Heading into this season there is both good and bad news when it comes to Sims. The good news is that both his tackle and big play numbers improved considerably in his second season. Three of those forced fumbles and his interception came in '07, so there is reason to be very optimistic that we have not yet seen his best football. The bad news that unlike his first two seasons, there could be a lot of competition for tackles. Paris Lenon landed the Lions starting job at MLB last season. He's a guy who reminds me a lot of Danny Clark. Like Clark, Lenon is a big physical head banger who is more tough and determined than talented, and had been a career backup prior to last season. He managed a very solid 88-30-2 with a couple of FF and a pick, and was a top 12 MLB. I point this out because when a backup caliber player puts up that kind of production, it shows just how much potential there is at the position. This year's selection of Jordon Dizon in the second round all but ensures that Lenon won't be getting a chance to repeat. Lenon is expected to move to SLB where his size and physical nature would be a good fit. He could be returning to a backup role very soon however. As I am writing this section, the Lions are negotiating with Takeo Spikes who would undoubtedly be plugged in at that position. It's been a long time since Spikes has made a box score impact so even though that would be a talent upgrade, there would be no fantasy value in that signing. Dizon is much like Sims in many ways. At 6'0" and 229 pounds, he would be among the smallest starting middle backers in the league. He dropped into the second round because he doesn't measure particularly well in many areas including speed where his 4.73 in the 40 hurt his draft status. Pay no attention to those things. This kid is a football player with a tremendous nose for the ball. He has a knack for making his way through traffic and makes up for the lack of speed with great anticipation and agility. He is physical for his size and is good at squeezing through holes when called upon to blitz. Most importantly, in his senior season at Colorado Dizon LED THE NATION in solo tackles. That alone speaks volumes. The only concern I have is that if/when the Lions sign Spikes, Dizon might get bumped in the nickel packages, at least for this season. The one thing he wasn't asked to do much at Colorado is drop in coverage and he was not very smooth when he did. This is something Dizon and the Detroit coaching staff will undoubtedly be working on diligently during camp and beyond. Even if he looses some snaps in passing situations Dizon is going to be a productive player. Is he this year's version of Patrick Willis or DeMeco Ryans? I'm not sure but if I had to pick a player to lead all rookies in tackles this year, my money would be on him. The one thing Dizon will have that neither Willis nor Ryans did, is someone like Sims playing next to him. I see the potential for this to be another A.J. Hawk/Nick Barnett type situation. One thing is certain, the Lions aren't going to be a great defense this year so there should be plenty of opportunity for both of them.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB Jordon Dizon - Solid #3 at worst with big upside
WLB Ernie Sims - Quality #2 or excellent #3 with upside
SLB/MLB Paris Lenon - injury sleeper at best
SLB Takeo Spikes - Possible depth in large leagues but only if he plays in passing situations
OLB Anthony Cannon - Injury sleeper
SLB Alex Lewis - No value

Defensive Back

In a cover 2 the left corner's responsibilities are often similar to a SS in other schemes. That makes players like Antoine Winfield and Charles Tillman some of the best fantasy options in the game. For some reason the Lions cover 2 has never produced that kind of player. Despite all their defensive struggles last season, Travis Fisher led the Detroit secondary with only 60 solo stops. In fact you have to go back further than 2003 to find a Detroit corner with more than 61 tackles and Dre' Bly was the last one to finish among the top 15 when he rode a meager 52 tackles and an unusual number of big plays back in '03. The Lions traded for Leigh Bodden this offseason. and he just might be the guy to break that trend. At 6'1" and 200 pounds, he's a physical corner who should be a great fit in the scheme. Bodden is coming off his best statistical season of 76 solo stops, 6 picks, 3 FF and 15 passes defended. Those numbers made him the fantasy game's #1 corner in '07. We will soon learn if it's been scheme or players that have caused the IDP drought at the position. Bodden should be a solid option but but there is a serious bust factor. He certainly shouldn't be counted on to match last year's lofty totals... There will be an open competition between incumbent Travis Fisher, free agent addition Brian Kelley and holdovers Stanley Wilson and Keith Smith for the other corner job, and to determine the rest of the pecking order. Having been a starter in Tampa and getting pretty fat 3 year deal to sign, Kelly is likely to get the starting nod with Fisher the favorite to land nickel duties. None of these guys are likely to do much in the box scores however... There will be an open 3 way competition for the Lions safety positions this summer. While no one at either position has been very strong in recent years, it's noteworthy that former starting SS Kenoy Kennedy reached 75-24 and was a top 20 safety in '05. He was on pace for very similar numbers in '06 had he not missed 6 games. If Kennedy would have made a decent big play contribution, he would have made a quality #3 in those seasons. His near miss shows that there is at least some potential here. Even though both safeties have very similar responsibilities in a cover 2, it seems that the strong side guy still has a tendency to be the more productive. As such, whoever comes out of this battle holding the at position becomes a sleeper with the potential to be a decent 3rd starter. Daniel Bullocks returns from the knee injury he suffered late last preseason. He earned the starting job at FS as a rookie in '06 but like Kennedy, was unable to make the kind of impact plays needed for this scheme to be successful. Bullocks will be given an opportunity to show improvement in that area but if he fails it's likely he will back up at both positions. Bullocks will battle last years 2nd round pick Gerald Alexander and veteran free agent pickup Dwight Smith. Alexander got the call at FS last season when Bullocks went down, and did an adequate job. He was mediocre in general when it comes to the box scores but did manage 2 picks, 2 recoveries and 2 sacks. The year of experience will help him greatly. Having been a starter for both the Buccaneers and Vikings, Smith has a great deal of experience in very similar schemes and has posted similar tackle numbers to Kennedy's in recent years. Unlike Kennedy however, Smith has been an impact player with 22 picks, 8 forced fumbles and a few other big plays over the past 6 seasons. Heading into camp Smith and Alexander are the favorites for the starting position with Smith most likely to line up at SS.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Gerald Alexander - Decent depth with a little upside
SS Daniel Bullocks - Minimal value unless proven otherwise
FS Dwight Smith - Possible #3 starter, decent depth in most leagues
CB Leigh Bodden - Probable starter in corner required leagues but don't expect last year's numbers
CB Keith Smith - No value
CB Travis Fisher - Injury sleeper with limited potential
CB Brian Kelly - Potential depth in corner required leagues.

San Francisco 49ers

Defensive Line

By now you know the routine when it comes to 3-4 linemen. Unless they are a rare breed, the scheme is just too limiting for them to make an impact with any consistency. Marques Douglas led the club's DL with a solid 55 tackles last season but with just 3 sacks he was hardly a game breaker. Here's the kicker. The second leading tackler of this group totaled just 18-8 on the season. Douglas is gone and there are several new faces in this group, but the Niners have yet to really step up and make the investment in a Vince Wilfork or Richard Seymour type player to anchor the defense. Instead they keep shuffling in middle round draft picks with a sprinkling of bargain basement free agents in hope of striking gold. It hasn't paid off thus far. Since 2005 the Niners have selected DE Ray McDonald, DE Isaac Sopoaga along with rookie DE Kentwan Balmer and rookie DT Atiyyah Ellison all in the third or fourth rounds. Meanwhile free agency has brought them Aubrayo Franklin, LaJuan Ramsey and this year's big ticket addition Justin Smith. All of the young guys would seem to fit the bill of wide bodied space eaters who soak up blockers and can hold their ground versus the run, but there are no great athletes in the group and certainly no one who resembles a Luis Castillo. The one possible exception to a statement of "no value here" would be Smith. Not so much because he is a great player who can overcome the limitations of the scheme, rather because he could see extensive action at OLB while being listed as an end in most league management software. Smith has put up 40+ tackles in each of his seven pro seasons and had averaged just under 7 sacks prior to the career low 2 that punched his one way ticket out of Cincinnati after last season. If he can make a successful transition to OLB Smith could post 55 tackles and 5-6 sacks. Not great production for a linebacker but certainly very useful as a DE. Personally I don't see him making that transition and at just 270 pounds, he's not likely to be a great fit as a 3-4 DE. I scratched my head when the Niners made this deal and I still don't see it working out for either party. Because he is relentless in pursuit and never gives up on a play, I see 40+ tackles and maybe 3-4 sacks as realistic expectations for Smith.

Fantasy Prospects

DE/OLB Justin Smith - Depth in large leagues with a little upside
DE Isaac Sopoaga - No value
DE Ray McDonald - No value
DE Kentwan Balmer - No value
NT Aubrayo Franklin - No value
NT Ronald Fields - No value

Linebacker

In any successful 3-4 defense the linebackers, and particularly the outside linebackers, need to be difference makers. The Niners have been hurting across the board at that position since the day they made the move to the scheme. The club used a first round pick on Many Lawson two years ago in hope that he would be their Shawne Merriman. As a rookie he sure didn't look the part. In a full 16 games he was able to muster only 48 tackles and a disappointing 3 sacks. His second season was off to a much better start but lasted only 2 games. Hardly enough to tell if Lawson was ready to step up. Obviously much bigger things are expected from Lawson going foreword but expectations don't score us any points. Until/unless he shows us something he is not worthy of much consideration... The Niners recorded just 31 sacks as a team in '07 with only 8.5 of those coming from the OLB positions. That simply won't get it done and yet despite the gross shortcoming little effort was made to address the situation over the offseason. Unless of course, you count the signing of Justin Smith who has never played a down at LB in his 7 year career. San Francisco added Tully Banta-Cain last season in hope that he could fill the role opposite Lawson. He did manage to lead the OLB position in sacks but with only 3.5, and clearly is not the answer the club was looking for. When Lawson was lost it was Parys Haralson who got the call off the bench but he was even less impressive than Banta-Cain. The bottom line here is that unless both Lawson and Smith can get it done it will be another long season for Niners fans... The story is completely different at the ILB positions. Or at least one of them. The Niners hit a grand slam when they landed Patrick Willis at #11 overall last April. He proved to be everything that both they fantasy owners could have dreamed of. Willis led the club with 4.5 sacks, led the league with a whopping 137 solo tackles, was defensive rookie of the year and most importantly, was far and away the fantasy game's top overall IDP. He may come back to earth a little this season but don't expect a big drop off. This is not yet a good football team and there is no one on the roster who will take tackles away from Willis. He's the complete player and though DeMeco Ryans and David Harris will likely close the gap, Willis remains the favorite to repeat his top dog performance... There will be competition for the starting job next to Willis on the inside. Veteran Jeff Ulbrich has the upper hand heading into training camp but could feel some pressure from fellow veteran Brandon Moore and 7th round rookie Larry Grant. Barring an injury to Willis it doesn't matter who wins this job.

Fantasy Prospects

OLB Manny Lawson - Sleeper in leagues that emphasize sacks
OLB Tully Banta-Cain - No value
OLB Parys Haralson - No value
ILB Patrick Willis - Stud! will contend for league tackle crown
ILB Jeff Ulbrich - Minimal value
ILB Larry Grant - Injury sleeper
ILB Brandon Moore - Injury sleeper with limited potential

Defensive Back

After finishing with the 26th ranked pass defense in '06, improvement in the secondary was high on the Niners priority list last offseason. Their answer was to sign arguably the best corner and safety that free agency had to offer in Nate Clements and Michael Lewis. That was money well spent and helped Fan Francisco to improve in '07, but only to 21st. With that and the consideration that just 3 clubs managed fewer than their 12 interceptions, they obviously still have a long way to go. There is actually some pretty decent talent here so maybe what they need most is some help from the front seven in the form of a pass rush. At any rate, there is IDP value to be had here. Clements and Lewis were the team's second and third leading tacklers respectively last season. Clements is a 215 pound physical corner who doesn't shy away from run support opportunities. His 77-15-1 with 3 FFs, 4 picks and 14 passes defended were good enough to rank second among corners. In fact Clements has been a top 5 corner 3 times in the past 4 years dating back to his time in Buffalo, and he's finished outside the top 20 just once in his seven year career. He's consistent on a weekly basis as well, totaling 7 or more fantasy points in 12 games last season and reaching double digits in 9. Clements is a stud among corners and a solid #2 starter in any league. Lewis has a long history of production as well having been a top 15 safety for three straight season leading up to 2006 when he fell out of favor in Philadelphia and was forced to share time. He was a top 5 DB overall in '05 with 93 solo tackles and a few big plays. I had high expectations of him last season and he didn't disappoint. His 74-30-1.5 with a few takeaways sprinkles in, were good enough for a #6 finish among safeties and he was good for 9 or more points in 10 games while falling short of 6 just 3 times. Willis will soak up a lot of tackles but he can't be everywhere and the Niners front 7 looks to be very leaky again in '08. FS Mark Roman and CB Walt Harris fill out the secondary with Shawntae Spencer handling the nickel duties. Harris had some big years early in his career and rode a freakish 14 takeaways to a top 3 ranking in '06 but he hasn't reached 55 tackles since the turn of the century and doesn't seem likely to break that streak now at age 34. Roman was a second round pick of the Bengals back in '02 but has never been more than an adequate player. He has just one career top 20, has only once totaled more than 55 tackles and has just 5 interceptions to his credit in 8 seasons as a starter. He could feel some heat from second year pro Dashon Golston as the coaching staff searches for playmakers. Behind the top three corners San Francisco has a handful if second day draft picks being groomed to possibly take over for Harris in the next year or so. None of them have distinguished themselves to date but some believe rookie 3rd round pick Reggie Smith might be that guy.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Michael Lewis - Strong #2 with top 10 potential
FS Mark Roman - No value
SS Keith Lewis - No value
FS Dashon Goldston - Injury sleeper
CB Walt Harris - Minimal value at best
CB Shawntae Spencer - Injury sleeper in corner required leagues
CB Nate Clements - Solid #2 starter, stud in corner required leagues
CB Reggie Smith - Dynasty sleeper in corner required leagues

St. Louis Rams

Defensive Line

Leonard Little was a one man show for the Rams in '06 when he piled up a career best 56 tackles, 12 sacks and a top 5 fantasy ranting. The problem being that the rest of the St. Louis line combined for only 8.5 sacks. The Rams set out that offseason. to get Little some help. The draft brought them first round pick Adam Carriker and free agency supplied James Hall. Heading into the '07 campaign this looked like a very solid group. Then everything began to unravel. Hall suffered a torn pectoral muscle in late September followed by Little with a toe injury in early October. Hall toughed it out and played through the injury, later adding a high ankle sprain to his problems. Little tried to play but soon gave up and opted for season ending surgery in November. As a result La'Roi Glover's 6 sacks ended up leading a D-line that produced only 15 combined, while MLB Will Witherspoon led the club with 7. It's a new year and the Rams expect a much different outcome in '08. Little is nearly 100% recovered and Hall was released then resigned and is expected to ready for camp. Not willing to take any chances this time around, the Rams also added the best every down DE prospect in the daft with their first round selection of Chris Long. Little will turn 34 in October and is coming off surgery, but don't be too quick to write him off. Prior to last years injury he had been a top 15 lineman in 4 of the 5 seasons dating back to '02 with a pair of top 5 finished including '06. There is obviously some injury risk and he's nearing the end of an outstanding career, but there is still some gas in the tank. After last season Little will be overlooked by many but don't hesitate to grab him as a strong DL2 or an outstanding #3 with big potential. The addition of Long will undoubtedly push Hall into a reserve role. He will likely see a fair amount of action as the team's third DE but not enough to warrant a roster spot. Which brings us to Long who may well be the most complete, game ready DE to come out of the draft in years and should make an immediate impact. He has a great motor, an arsenal of pass rush moves that he executes with near perfection, and is powerful enough to take on blockers and hold the point of attack. Long was exceptionally productive at Virginia where he was 75-19-14 with 7 batted passes and a pick as a senior. It's rare for a rookie DE to post huge numbers but Long is very likely to reach 40+ tackles and double digit sacks, the standard by which quality fantasy linemen are judged. In fact he's a prime candidate for defensive rookie of the year and could follow in the footsteps of his Hall of Fame father... The Rams have made big investments in their DL in the past but it's been a very long time since any of them have lived up to expectations either on the field or in the box scores. Back in 2001 they used 2 first round picks on Damione Lewis and Ryan Pickett. Then followed with Jimmy Kennedy at #12 overall in '03. Of those three only Pickett ever made the top 10 tackle list and even he did it just once. Little has changed in the two seasons since all of those guys moved on. In both '06 and '07 Glover led the Rams interior linemen in tackles and sacks with 34-3-5 and 33-6-6 respectively. That kind of production makes him worthy as quality depth in tackle requires leagues. That said, I need to point out that Glover was the last player to lead the league in sacks from the tackle position when he racked up 17 for the Saints back in '00. I bring this up because with a healthy Leonard Little and the addition of Long, there could be a lot more opportunity for Glover this season... A lot of owners were excited about Carriker last season and expected him to change the karma of the Rams interior line. Most were a little surprised when the club sent Kennedy packing and instead of plugging their prized rookie in at the more box score friendly 3 technique position, saddle him with the responsibilities of the nose/undertackle spot. That decision stands heading into '08 so the chances of his breaking out in his second season are very slim. Last year's 5th round pick Ryan Clifton saw extensive playing time in the rotation and was actually more impressive both on the field and in the box scores than Carriker. With Glover at age 34, it's very possible that Clifton could be headed for a starting job in the relatively near future. Possibly as early as next season.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Leonard Little - Quality #2 starter with top 10 potential if he can stay healthy
DE Chris Long - Big long term potential, should make a solid #2 starter even as a rookie
DE James Hall - Injury sleeper with some upside
DE Victor Adeyanju - No value
DT La'Roi Glover - Quality depth in tackle required leagues with some upside in the sack column
DT Adam Carriker - No value unless his position is changed
DT Ryan Clifton - Injury sleeper with some long term potential

Linebacker

When the Rams signed Will Witherspoon two years ago they expected him to be a difference maker and the centerpiece of their defense for years to come. So far he hasn't disappointed. Not only has he led the club in tackles for two straight seasons, he's proven to be a playmaker for them as well. Having seen him play well at both weak and middle linebacker during his time in Carolina, we already knew he was a versatile player, but Witherspoon took it one step further last season when he was actually used as a rush end at times as the club tried desperately to mount a pass rush. I can't honestly say how many of his team leading 7 sacks came from that position but just the fact that he could do it speaks highly of his ability. With marks of 102-14-3 in '06 and 92-18-7 last season, Witherspoon has been a top 10 MLB in each of his years with the Rams. The pass rush has been strongly addressed so he probably won't be called upon to post such lofty sack totals this season, but then if he doesn't see any time at end, it could help him return to triple digits in the tackle column. Any way you look at it the glass is half full when it comes to Witherspoon. He's checks in just outside the elite class but is a solid LB1 or an excellent #2 in any league... WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa has missed 12 games over the past two seasons and even when healthy has been very disappointing. In his last 20 starts he's totaled just 60-16-2 and has been relatively quiet in the big play columns. He's a very fast and athletic player who is more of a finesse type who would rather run around a block than blow up a blocker. That kind of player is rarely productive in the box scores and Tinoisamoa isn't the guy to break that trend. In his three full seasons prior to '06, his highest tackle total was 73 and he's never finished among the top 25 overall. To be completely honest, I don't understand how he keeps the starting job in Jim Haslett's physical scheme. Maybe they just haven't gotten around to improving that position yet... Although he's not quite as big and may be a little more gifted, Chris Draft is another guy in the Danny Clark, Paris Lenon mold. He's all hustle all the time and loves to lower the boom when he gets the chance. Draft has bounced around a little and has been unable to land (or at least keep) a full time starting job, but he's a very versatile player who has been productive every times he been given a chance. Draft was 103-20-3 as a starter with the Falcons in '03, but was replaced in the lineup in '04. With the Panthers he stepped in early in '06 after a Dan Morgan injury, and went on to post 83-26-6.5. Draft joined the Rams last season where he was called upon when Tinoisamoa went down and averaged nearly 5 tackles a game. He enters camp as the starter on the strong side but will have to hold off second year pro Quinton Culberson. If he wins that job and remains at SLB Draft will have little value. However, if he gets an opportunity to replace Tinoisamoa on the weak side (which would come as no surprise), Draft could be a nice in season pickup. The Rams coaches liked what they saw from Culberson last year. The undrafted rookie made an impression on special teams for the most part but was particularly impressive when he went 10-1 with a forced fumble in his only start of the season (week 17). The Rams don't have any experienced depth to work with but the versatility of Draft gives them an ace in the hole. Especially if Culberson can build on what he started... One more quick note on the Rams. The official scorekeepers for this club are very stingy when it comes to handing out assists. Only the Falcons were credited with fewer than the Rams 138 last season. The league average being somewhere between 180 and 200. If your scoring system lumps assist and solo tackles together, Rams players will have a little less value in your league.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB Will Witherspoon - Excellent #2 starter with top 10 potential
WLB Pisa Tinoisamoa - Minimal value at best
SLB Chris Draft - Injury sleeper, potentially a decent #3 starter if he land somewhere besides SLB
SLB Quinton Culberson - Minimal value

Defensive Back

Some of the blame for the Rams 21st ranked pass defense falls on the lack of pass rush, but injuries played the most significant part. Having finished with the 8th rated pass defense in '06 much was expected of this unit last season. Things started going South when starting corner Fakhir Brown was suspended for the first 4 games. It only got worse from there. The team's best cover corner Ty Hill missed time early in the season with a back injury then returned only to land on IR after wrist surgery. Nickel corner Ronald Bartell started the first 4 games for Brown then remained in the lineup for Hill until SS Corey Chavous went down with a chest injury, followed by backup SS Jerome Carter breaking his foot and their last back up safety Todd Johnson being knocked out with a neck injury. At that point Bartell got some work at safety. That's just how the season went for St. Louis. The only good news being that rookie 3rd round pick Jonathan Wade was able to get some much needed experience. With everyone healthy or at least close to it entering camp, and Brown having avoided a year long suspension by the league, the Rams should be at full strength for the season opener. FS Oshiomogho (O.J.) Atogwe led the secondary with 66 solo tackles but managed to finish among the top 5 safeties due to his 8 interceptions and 12 passes defended. This following an '06 season in which he landed at #11 with identical tackle production and 3 picks but forced 5 fumbles. If you are comfortable relying on the big play production Atogwe is a solid option. The thing that's scary is that one season it was a fluke number of forced fumbles and the next it was what might prove to be a fluke number of interceptions. What happens if he posts 1 FF and 3 picks? He will probably be drafted way to high in most leagues and should be viewed as a solid #2 or strong #3... Chavous has given us some productive years in the past and would be coming off 70+ tackles in back to back seasons had it not been for the two games he missed last year. His shortcoming however, is in the area of big plays. Since his 8 interception season with the Vikings in '03, Chavous has just 4 picks total in 62 games and he's forced or recovered just 5 fumbles in the past 6 years. He could serve as a backup in some larger leagues but there is very little upside... The Rams have consistently given us a corner with 60+ tackles, who is worthy of consideration as at least a backup in corner required leagues. If you go back to the '04 season they even gave us Jerametrius Butler with 80 tackles and 5 picks. The problem is that a different player has led the team's corners in tackles every year dating back to Butler in '03 and '04. Hill is a true #1 corner and as such offenses will likely look to avoid him. On the other hand, he was on pace for 68 tackles last season. The bottom line here is that one of these guys will likely put up decent enough numbers to be worthy of a backup job but none of them are sure to be that guy. If you find yourself in a bind, put your money on Brown and cross your fingers.

Fantasy Prospects

FS O.J. Atogwe - Solid #3 or decent #2
SS Corey Chavous - Quality depth
SS Jerome Carter - Injury sleeper with some potential
CB Tye Hill - Possible depth in corner required leagues
CB Fakhir Brown - Possible depth in corner required leagues
CB Ronald Bartell - Injury sleeper for corner required leagues
CB David Macklin - No value
CB Jonathan Wade - Injury sleeper at best

Arizona Cardinals

Defensive Line

The Cardinals started last season as sort of a hybrid defense that employed both 4-3 and 3-4 fronts. As the season progressed they evolved into more of a full fledged 3-4. They may still sprinkle in a few four or even five man fronts but the 3-4 will be the base defense going foreword. In '07 Darnell Dockett was a gem for owners in tackle required leagues. At least at a glance. His overall production of 44-14-9.5 made him #2 among interior linemen and seems very impressive, but if you take a closer look at the breakdown of those numbers it might quell your excitement for this season. Through the first 8 games Dockett was 27-8-8.5. Over the final 8 games when the club was predominantly using the 3-4, he was 17-6-1. As a tackle Dockett has/had become one of the best in the league, particularly when it comes to rushing the passer, but when you put him at end in a 3-4 with no one on his outside to occupy blockers, it obviously hurts his production. The responsibilities of a 3 technique tackle are very different from those of a 3-4 end. Dockett is quick and athletic for a big man but the idea of taking on multiple blockers doesn't take advantage of his strong suit. Most management software still has Dockett listed at tackle. He could retain a little value at that position and might even be one of those guys who can overcome the scheme and be fairly productive, but he will likely be drafted way too high in most leagues based on last year's overall numbers... Once you get past Dockett there is a lot of uncertainty about who will even start. Third year pro Gabe Watson will compete with last year's second round pick Alan Branch for the nose tackle job. Both guys are 330+ pound space eaters but neither is likely to post useful numbers for us. The DE position opposite Dockett will likely be hotly contested between 4th year veteran Antonio Smith, Veteran free agent addition Travis LaBoy and second round pick Calais Campbell. Smith reminds me a little of the Steelers Aaron Smith. He's a little undersized for the position at 274 pounds but seemed to do very well there last season. He's a quick but physical guy who uses his hands and leverage very well to keep blockers at bay. Smith ended last season at 38-6-6.5. While that is quality production from a 3-4 end, it's not the kind of numbers we need, and unlike Dockett, Smith was an end in the 4-3 so he will get no help from a software glitch. Campbell may not land the starting job this season but it seems only a matter of time. At 6'7" and 290, he is a powerful but athletic player who was hand picked by the current coaching staff. Campbell is a bit raw but has major upside. LaBoy may end up working at OLB. At just 253 pounds he is way under sized for the DE position in this scheme. Unless the plan all along was to use him at linebacker, this signing doesn't make much sense.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Calais Campbell - Dynasty sleeper with some potential despite the scheme
DE Antonio Smith - Possible backup in deep leagues
DE Darnell Dockett - could have decent value if your software lists him at tackle, otherwise no better than depth in large leagues
NT Alan Branch - No value
NT Gabe Watson - No value

Linebacker

I have talked previously about how important it is for a 3-4 scheme to get production from the OLB positions. One of the reason the Cardinals were slow to commit to the new scheme last season were the setbacks they suffered while trying to make the transition. The plan entering camp was to evolve former ends Bert Berry and Chike Okeafor into outside backers. Both players fit the mold physically as small, but quick and athletic ends who could get after the passer. Things took a bad turn when Okeafor suffered a torn biceps tendon early in the preseason. He was replaced by Calvin Pace who was also a former DE but had been working at SLB in a 4-3 under the previous coaching staff. Pace actually fit the bill well and went on to have an excellent season. Berry however, did not. He struggled with the transition to a stand up linebacker and was unable to get comfortable. Berry was only 18-2-2 through 9 games when an injury ended his season in November for the third consecutive year. He is expected to recover from the torn triceps in time for camp but it remains to be seen if he will continue to work at OLB of will be returned to DE. Either way he doesn't seem to be a good fit in this scheme and will likely be a non-factor again this season. Pace has moved on and the club has brought in former Steelers starter Clark Haggans to replace him. Haggans was deemed expendable by the Steelers after James Harrison exploded last season and the club deemed second year pro LaMarr Woodley ready to assume the starting job. He will never be considered among the Steelers greats at the position but Haggans knows the scheme well and was productive to the tune of 21.5 sacks in 39 starts between '04 and '06. Okeafor has had plenty of time to recover and will start opposite Haggans. With the injury coming so early last year, we didn't get a chance to see him work at the position so it's hard to tell what we can expect. In 4 seasons as a starting defensive end for the Seahawks and Cards, Okeafor had consistently totaled 40+ tackles and 8-9 sacks. If he can match Pace's tackle production of 79-18 and keep up his streak if 4 consecutive seasons with 8 or more sacks, Okeafor could be a decent #3 or quality backup for us. We certainly can't count on him to pull that off, and shouldn't waste a draft pick on any of these guys. They will be there to pick up early in the season if they give us a reason to do so... The one thing I still don't understand is why the coaching staff doesn't use Karlos Dansby on the outside? He's fast, athletic, is a proven pass rusher with 17 sacks in three years at SLB in a 4-3 (including 8 in '06), and is a playmaker with a combined total of 21 forced fumbles, recover fumbles and picks over the past 4 seasons. While I don't understand the decision, I'm happy for it because it give us a quality LB option. Dansby missed a couple of games last year but managed a solid 78-20-3.5 with 4 FF and 3 picks. Average those numbers over a full 16 games and you get 89-23-4 plus some excellent big play numbers. One issue with Dansby is that he has trouble staying completely healthy. He hasn't missed significant time in a few years but he hasn't completed a full schedule in any of the past 4 seasons either. He falls short of the top tier guys but you can't go wrong with Dansby as your #3 starter or even #2 in many cases. Gerald Hayes completes the starting lineup on the inside. Hayes emerged as the starting MLB for the previous regime in 2006 when he went for 80-14-1, a few big plays and a top 15 finish among middle backers despite missing a couple of games. Across the league there are many examples of 3-4 schemes that give us one high quality ILB while the other starter doesn't have much value. There are however, a few examples situations that give us two very useful options. I'm not going to predict that Dansby and Hayes will be the next Jamie Sharper/Jay Foreman combination, but Hayes is simply too good a player to not have some value as at least a quality backup. He doesn't have the big play potential that Dansby brings and can be a little inconsistent since he sometimes sits on passing downs, but look for Hayes to put up numbers similar to last year's 81-16-4, and should Dansby be injured Hayes would step up big time.

Fantasy Prospects

ILB Karlos Dansby - Solid #2 starter or excellent #3
ILB Gerald Hayes - Quality depth at worst with some upside
ILB Monty Beisel - No value
OLB/DE Bert Berry - No value
OLB Chike Okeafor - Potential depth
OLB Clark Haggans - Minimal value at best
OLB/DE Travis LaBoy - Not sure where he fits in the plans but he's unlikely to have any value regardless

Defensive Back

For the first time since 2003 Adrian Wilson was not among the top 5 DBs last season, but don't let anything scare you away from him. He played in 9 games and was just 33-11 before going on IR which will prompt some to argue that the new scheme had effected his numbers even before the injury. Let them think that if they want to. Wilson began fighting nagging injuries in mid October and played through them for a few weeks before having surgery on his heel late November. Through week 6 he was averaging better than 5 solo tackles a game, had 2 interceptions and had not produced fewer than 6 fantasy point in a game. If anything the 3-4 scheme actually promotes production from the SS position. Rodney Harrison, Roy Williams, Troy Polamalu, Sean Jones and Michael Lewis are all very productive strong safeties in 3-4 schemes with Harrison, Williams and Lewis all posting 70+ tackles last season. To be successful the system requires the strong safety to be a playmaker, which makes Wilson a perfect fit. Not only has he recorded 70+ tackles in each of the past four seasons, Wilson has 14 sacks, 10 forced fumbles, 6 recoveries and 14 interceptions over that span as well. He's been very durable throughout his career with '07 being the first time he's missed a game since 2002. The surgery was both minor and successful so he will be ready for camp and a return to the top 5 as well... In 2005 the Cards used the 8th overall pick on corner Antrell Rolle. As a rookie he missed most of the season with injury, starting just 3 of the 5 games he played in. In those three games he recorded a monstrous 25 tackles and an interception. With the injury keeping him from gaining much needed experience, Rolle still fell under the rookie corner rule in '06. He finished that season with a very respectable 79 solo stops but only 1 interception. Having 19 starts under his belt, Rolle was supposed to be on his way in '07 but the coaching staff threw us a curve ball by demoting him to nickel corner. Some may see this as an attempt for the club to get some return on a failed #1 draft pick but I don't see it that way. The reason Rolle was demoted was not so much a lack of talent but rather the scheme didn't play to his strengths. He's best in zone coverage and is not a guy who can be put on an island without making some mistakes. That however, is just what is required of corners in this system. His tackle numbers suffered but the switch helped Rolle to a 5 interception season and showed the coaching staff what he could do when working the middle of the field. When last year's starting FS Terrence Holt was let go, the team didn't search far for a replacement. Rolle's skill set should make him the right guy for this job but I'm not real excited about his box score prospects. While the 3-4 tends to be a positive thing for strong safeties, it tends to be very hard on free safeties. In '07 James Sanders of the Patriots led all 3-4 free safeties with 64 tackles and Holt put up 61. No other FS in this scheme even approached 60. Rolle is certainly worthy of a late round shot and could put up 65 tackles with 5-6 picks. Don't expect too much and you won't be disappointed. This may be another of those situations were you can take advantage of the software. As of late July most scoring software still has Rolle at corner where he would be a better value... Roderick Hood and Eric Green will compete with first round pick Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to determine the pecking order at corner. Both of the veterans are solid cover man but neither have the physical gifts of the rookie. Rodgers-Cromartie has good size, world class speed, great ball skills and is strong in man to man. All the things the coaching staff was looking for in a corner. He may open as the nickel back but it won't be long before this kid is in the lineup full time. When that happens the rookie corner rule will come to play and he could be very productive.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Adrian Wilson - Solid #1 who could return to the top 5
FS Antrell Rolle - Potential 3rd starter, solid depth at worst
FS Aaron Francisco - No value
CB Roderick Hood - No value
CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie - Rookie corner rule applies once he is confirmed as a starter
CB Eric Green - No value

Seattle Seahawks

Defensive Line

The Seahawks have exceeded 40 sacks in three consecutive seasons and four times in the last five. They play a high pressure attacking style of defense that uses a lot of linebacker blitzing to keep offenses guessing, and help create a lot of single blocking for their pass rushers. The free agent signing of Patrick Kerney last offseason. turned out to be a perfect marriage for both parties. Seattle got it's best production from the defensive end position since the days of Michael Sinclair, and Kerney finished with 49 solo tackles, a career best 14.5 sacks and a #2 ranking among defensive linemen. Looking back at his production in years past could bring up questions about Kerney's year to year consistency, and may have some owners wondering if he can repeat. Such a gaudy sack total would be difficult for anyone to repeat but don't let his past scare you off. Despite being the victim of several coaching changes and a three year stint as an end in a 3-4 scheme, Kerney has reached double digit sacks four times in his nine year career, and has finished in the top 3 twice. He has finally settled into a situation that is consistent and at age 31, he is far from over the hill. There is no reason to believe Kerney's production will slip to any great extent. Expect him to easily reach the mark of 40+ tackles and double digit sacks, and consider him a candidate to contend for the league sack title... 2006 second round pick Darryl Tapp replaced Bryce Fisher as the other starting end last and at a glance posted respectable numbers of 41-8-7. However, if you take away the week 7 contest when he single-handedly beat up the Rams for 5-0-4 and a forced fumble, Tapp's season is suddenly very questionable. That goes a long way toward explaining why the Seahawks used their first round pick on Lawrence Jackson. As a three year starter for USC Jackson twice reached double digit sacks with the odd year being '06 when he was slowed by an ankle injury. He uses leverage well and at 271 pounds is solid versus the run. Jackson has been successful against some of the best competition the college game has to offer and is a strong candidate to be a very good every down end at the pro level. He will enter camp at #3 behind Tapp and is sure to see plenty of action, but may land a starting role much earlier than many have anticipated. I've seen Tapp drafted too early in a lot of leagues so far while Jackson is left sitting. I agree that Tapp has some potential but if you take him it would be a good idea to land Jackson in the late rounds as a handcuff. At the very least Jackson is a strong dynasty sleeper. His chances of seeing the field right away may have increased with the recent calf injury to Kerney. Early reports have Kerney out "indefinitely" though he will likely be ready for the opener... In '05 Rocky Bernard was among the fantasy game's 3 most productive defensive tackles. The 43-9-8.5 mark was good enough to land him among the top 20 linemen overall and make Bernard a stud for those required to play interior guys. Unfortunately it appears that he may have been a one year wonder. In '06 none of the Seattle interior guys were able to reach even 30 tackles and last year was a repeat of the same. Bernard again led the club's interior linemen in production but at just 28-10-3.5, that isn't saying much. Take into consideration however, that the Seahawks have battled a slew of injuries at the tackle positions over the past two years. 2004 first round pick Marcus Tubbs started just 5 games at nose tackle last season before tearing his ACL and Bernard played much of the season with nagging injuries as well. If everyone can stay healthy Bernard could be worthy as a backup in tackle required leagues. Save the draft pick and grab him off the free agent wire if he warrants it.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Patrick Kerney - Solid #1 starter with potential to lead the league in sacks
DE Lawrence Jackson - Dynasty alert! Could end up starting very early
DE Darryl Tapp - Could provide decent depth with upside if he doesn't lose the starting job to Jackson
DT Brandon Mebane - No value
DT Marcus Tubbs - No Value
DT Rocky Bernard - Possible backup with a little upside in tackle required leagues.

Linebacker

Seattle has put together possibly the leagues fastest and most productive trio of linebackers. Lofa Tatupu is the headliner of the group. In three seasons as a pro he has 262 solo tackles, 7 sacks, 15 takeaways, 26 passes defended and three consecutive top 15 rankings. Being barely 6 feet tall Tatupu may lack ideal size, but that's about all he is lacking. He's fast, smart, instinctive, consistent and is both a tackling machine and a play maker. He makes plays sideline to sideline and has quickly established himself as one of the leagues premier linebackers as well as one of the fantasy game's most dependable options. The only thing that keeps Tatupu from taking his place among the fantasy game's elite is the presence of Leroy Hill and Julian Peterson. Both of whom take a bite out of Tatupu's tackle opportunities. In 2006 the Seahawks were the only team to have all three of their starting linebackers finish with 70+ tackles. Seattle is among the handful of teams who line their outside guys up as left and right rather than strong and weak. Peterson works on the right side which turns out to be the weak side roughly 75% of the time against most offenses. Being just 235 pounds with a knack for getting to the passer, he is an excellent fit in the Seahawks scheme that is built on speed and athleticism. Peterson's tackle numbers slipped into the mid 60s last season but the strength of his game is big plays anyway. His two years in Seattle have produced 19.5 sacks and 11 takeaways. He obviously has greater value in scoring systems geared toward the big play but Peterson is a solid back up in any league... In '05 Seattle went to the Super Bowl with 2 rookies at linebacker. While Tatupu received all the attention, the coaching staff was quietly just as pleased with their "other rookie linebacker" Leroy Hill. Hill didn't jump into the fire as quickly as Tatupu but the third round pick was able to capture a starting job by mid season. He saw action at both OLB positions before settling in at left OLB where he was very productive, particularly as a pass rusher. At only 6'1" and 225, Hill isn't the prototypical SLB who plays smash mouth with lead blockers. Instead he's an extremely fast and elusive guy who excels by making it tough for those big bulky blockers to get a mitt on him. In the 8 games he started as a rookie Hill totaled 38-17-4.5. In his first full season as a starter Hill reached 70 solo tackles. A very respectable number for a guy who works from the strong side most of the time. Unfortunately his sack total fell to just 2. This had much more to do with the play calling than with any deficiency on Hill's part. With Peterson being so productive as a pass rusher, Hill's number simply wasn't called as often. He was hampered by a sore hamstring early in '07 and missed some time, but once he was healthy it was business as usual. Hill finished the regular season at just 58-23-3 but turned in 8 or more fantasy point in 10 of the 14 games he started. His best production came in the post season when he was 11-2-1 against Washington and then 10-1-1 with a forced fumble in the loss to Green Bay. He's not an every week starter for most of us but Hill will continue to make a solid bye week fill in... The one problem that could bite the Seahawks is a lack of depth at linebacker. With Niko Koutouvides having move on, the club is left with a collection of mostly inexperienced late round draft picks and undrafted free agents. Last year's 4th round pick Will Herring is probably the most talented of the group with veteran D.D. Lewis having the only considerable amount of experience.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB Lofa Tatupu - Excellent #2 starter with top 10 potential
ROLB Julian Peterson - Quality backup with big potential on any given week
LOLB Leroy Hill - Quality depth with a little upside
OLB Will Herring - Injury sleeper

Defensive Back

After revamping the secondary last season the Seahawks pass defense once again finished in the middle of the pack. That certainly didn't come about from a lack of commitment by the organization. Seattle spent plenty of free agent money on safeties Deon Grant and Brian Russell last offseason. This after using a first round pick on corner Kelly Jennings in '06 and second on Josh Wilson last season. The front 7 did their job by producing 45 sacks and getting plenty of pressure on the passer, so the shortcoming falls squarely on the shoulders of the secondary. Marcus Trufant is the cornerstone of this unit and is one of the leagues elite cover men. After Trufant however, there are questions. Jennings held the starting job for 15 games in '07 but did nothing to solidify himself as the starter. In June coach Holmgren let everyone know that he was not satisfied by announcing that there will be competition at the position. Coincidentally Holmgren failed to mention who, besides Wilson, would be competing. Wilson has shown signs of being a good corner but will need to step it up big time during camp to garner any serious consideration. Beyond Wilson the club has nothing but a collection of former late round picks with minimal experience and undrafted free agents. That leads me to believe the statement was more of a motivational ploy than anything based in reality... Normally when there is a stud corner like Trufant in play, it's the guy on the opposite side who is vandalized by offenses, especially if that corner is struggling. This wasn't the case last year with the Seahawks, or at least it didn't show up in the box scores that way. Jennings was only 49-6 and without an interception last season while Trufant exploded for 78-7 with 7 picks and a top 5 overall finish. Be careful with your expectations for Trufant this season however. He has a track record of being very inconsistent from year to year. Since 2003 he has twice reached 75+ tackles and at least 5 picks to finish among the top 5, and twice finished with 60 or fewer tackles, a single interception and outside the top 30 corners. He is undoubtedly worthy of a draft pick, especially after last years numbers, but you probably don't want to count on Trufant as your #1 corner... Seattle made a huge mistake by letting Ken Hamlin get away last offseason. By the time that reality hit them it was way too late. When Grant and Russell were signed there were a lot of people who thought they would be an upgrade and that Grant in particular, would be able to parlay the Seahawks previously productive SS position into the first quality production of his career. I was not among those people. This excerpt from last year's EOTG pretty much sums it up. "During his 7 years with Carolina and Jacksonville Grant never produced more than 65 tackles or ranked in the top 35. He was never a particularly physical player and just seemed very average. In his defense, Grant played in the less box score friendly FS position for both of those teams. Russell simply doesn't impress me at all. His reputation is still riding on the one dream season he had 5 years ago with the Vikings when he posted 72 tackles and picked off 9 passes. Unfortunately for Russell and the Seahawks, he awoke from that dream a long time ago. In his other 4 seasons as a pro he has never reached 60 tackles and has a combined 6 interceptions. I see both Grant and Russell as journeymen types who may do an adequate job but are certainly nothing special". Grant managed to equal his career best of 65-12 with 3 interceptions but was well outside the top 30 overall, while Russell ended the season at 60-8-1 with 1 pick. Don't expect a lot more than that from either of these guys in '07'

Fantasy Prospects

SS Deon Grant - Backup in deep leagues at best
FS Brian Russell - No value
SS Jordan Babineaux- Injury sleeper with limited potential
CB Marcus Trufant - Inconsistent from year to year but worth a shot in corner required leagues
CB Kelly Jennings - No value
CB Josh Wilson - No value

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Defensive Line

All the spotlights were on 4th overall pick Gaines Adams going into last season but by the end of the year Jovan Haye had stolen the show. Haye didn't get a lot of press but was a very pleasant and unexpected surprise for the Bucks. He's a real feel good story as well. Haye was the 6th round pick of the Panthers in '05 where he was active for only 2 games before being cut a week into the '06 season. Cleveland claimed him off waivers and stuck him on the practice squad for a few weeks until he was signed by Tampa Bay to their active roster. Haye saw a little action in '06 and played his way into a starting role in training camp last season. He went on to lead the Buccaneers DL in tackles (48-20), finish second on the team with 6 sacks, force 1 and recover 4 fumbles. All that added up to equal both the top fantasy production at the DT position in '07, and a new contract for Haye. When a guy comes from nowhere as Haye did, there is an increased chance he will prove to be a one year wonder. In this case the odds are in favor of Haye becoming the long term solution at the position and very possibly a long term fantasy option. Haye wasn't the only pleasant surprise for a club that entered last year's training camp with a lot of questions up front. Greg White was an undrafted free agent of the Bears in 2005. He was cut by the team and ended up playing arena football in '06 before being discovered by Tampa Bay last year and going on to lead the club with 8.5 sacks. White had a golden opportunity to earn a starting role when Greg Spires was injured but was soon slowed by a shoulder problem of his own. He started a few games and was used extensively on third downs but was never able to secure a starting job or an every down role. There is a lot of potential with White. Over the 7 game stretch leading up to the shoulder issue he was 14-2-7.5. Granted the tackle numbers were low but take into consideration that he wasn't an every down player in most of those games. White's success went straight to his head. Having already forgotten where he came from, he was reluctant to sign a 1 year tender and report to camp. Nothing will be handed to him and white will have to battle free agent addition Marques Douglas for the starting job opposite Gaines Adams. Douglas is another interesting prospect. For the past 5 seasons he's been a starter at end in the 3-4 schemes of the Ravens and Niners. What makes Douglas so interesting is that despite the limitations of the 3-4 scheme, he was able to post 44 or more tackles in each of those seasons and total 17 sacks. Douglas is 292 pounds and tough versus the run, which is a weakness of the 268 pound White. There is a lot of potential that comes with this position but only if the production is united under one player. Of the two competitors, Douglas probably has the best shot at being an every down guy. We may well see a situation where Douglas starts and moves inside on passing downs to make room for White to come on and rush the passer. Pass on both of these guys come draft day but keep this situation on your radar when the preseason. gets underway... After coming in surrounded by in big expectations, Adams rookie season was very ho hum. He didn't land a starting job out of camp and didn't get in the lineup until after mid season when Greg Spires was injured and White was gimpy. Once in the lineup Adams numbers weren't exactly impressive. Over the final 8 games of the regular season he totaled just 18-2-3 with his most productive game being the 4-0-1 against the Saints in week 13. I don't doubt the potential of Adams, or that he will eventually be a very productive player. However, I am not as high on him as some of my respected colleagues. Adams showed flashes of potential last season but was never able to put it together with any consistency. Coincidentally, inconsistency was one of the few knock on Adams coming out of Clemson. The other important one being that at 260 pounds, he was not particularly stout against the run and could be overpowered at the point of attack. I see Adams being very similar to former Buccaneers star Simeon Rice. Rice was an outstanding pass rusher that reached double digit sacks on a regular basis but struggled to reach 40 tackles with any consistency. The lack of great tackle numbers was just enough to make Rice inconsistent from week to week and keep him from being an elite fantasy option over the years. Adams could prove me wrong and it would come as little surprise, but until he does so I will continue to temper my expectations. I consider him a strong sleeper with big upside but as an unproven commodity, just couldn't draft him as more than a DL3 this season.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Gaines Adams - Probable #3 with a ton of long term upside
DE Greg White - Sleeper with good upside
DE Marques Douglas - Sleeper, possible #2 starter if he plays full time
DT/DE Kevin Carter - Minimal value at best, may not make the final roster
DT Chris Hovan - No value
DT Jovan Hayes - Stud in tackle required leagues, quality #3 for the rest of us
DT Ryan Sims - No value

Linebacker

The Buccaneers organization is showing a lot of class by letting Derrick Brooks go out on his own terms. The 13 year veteran may not be the player he was in his prime but remains a solid contributor and a team leader. The 84-25 he put in the tackle columns last season was well below his career average but the most telling statistic is that after being a playmaker for well over a decade, Brooks failed to record a sack or a fumble recovery in '07 and for the first time since his rookie season, didn't intercept a pass. He was phased out of the nickel package during the course of the season, which hurt his production down the stretch. That showed up big in his box scores during December when Brooks totaled just 10-5 over the final 4 games. Even as a 2 down player he should retain enough value to be a solid third starter for us but the big numbers and especially the great consistency are a thing of the past... MLB Barrett Ruud is the heir apparent to Brooks both as a team leader and a fantasy stud. In 15 starts Ruud totaled an unspectacular 83-31 in '07 but those numbers can be very deceiving. Through the first six games of last season Ruud averaged 8-2, had forced 4 fumbles, recovered 2 and picked off a pass. He was on pace for 128 solo stops and was the fantasy game's #1 linebacker. Ruud suffered a sprained knee against the Lions in week 7, and though he played through the pain for the rest of the season, he was never the same again. We saw a similar injury ruin the production of DeMeco Ryans down the stretch last year. Ruud was not as established at Ryans. As such a lot of owners will overlook his fast start and ultimately undervalue him on draft day. The knee is fine and Ruud is primed for a breakout season. Like the Brooks of previous years, Ruud is set to emerge as a triple digit tackle guy with plenty of big play production over the next several years. Best of all, you can probably draft him among the #2 linebackers this year... There is a lot of speculation that Cato June will eventually slide over to WLB when Brooks retires. That may well be the plan, but don't get too jumpy and grab him this year thinking he'll be a stud next season. For starters Brooks in under contract through 2009 so there is no guarantee that this is his last season and even when he does move on, June is no Derrick Brooks. In three years as a starter for the Colts, who run a very similar scheme, June had just one big season. In '04 he went 79-25 with a pair of picks and two fumble recoveries. In 13 games during the '06 campaign June was 68-35 with 5 picks and on pace for 83 solo stops. He broke out in '06 with career best numbers of 96-45 with 3 picks and a hand in a couple fumbles. Those are fairly impressive numbers but don't overlook the fact that they came in a season when the Colts were dead last in run defense. One of the reasons the Colts let June walk in free agency was money, another was the fact that they had Freddie Keiaho behind him who they liked a lot, but the biggest reason the Colts made no effort to retain June is that he wasn't as impressive on the field as he was in the box scores. He's a good player and will be productive when/if the opportunity comes, but will never be at the level of a Derrick Brooks. June will continue to work from the strong side for the time being. Despite being on the field in the nickel package, he has no chance of making a box score impact... One player to keep an eye on here over the next couple of years is rookie Geno Hayes. The 6th round pick is raw in some areas and needs to spend a lot of time in the weight room but he has some talent and was very productive at Florida State. If Brooks does indeed play through the 2009 season, we could be looking at Hayes rather than June as his replacement.

Fantasy Prospects

WLB Derrick Brooks- Solid #3 or quality backup
MLB Barrett Ruud - Quality #2 at worst with big potential
SLB Ryan Nece - No value
WLB Geno Hayes - Dynasty sleeper,
SLB Cato June - Injury/dynasty sleeper with no value unless he changes position

Defensive Back

When looking for fantasy production in the Tampa Bay secondary you must first understand what sets this scheme apart from the standard 4-3 or even the traditional cover two alignments. I'll give you the cliffs notes version but if you want an outstanding, in depth look at the scheme, check out the article by Jene Bramel titled "The Tampa-2 Defense and IDP"... In the Tampa-2 the safeties generally play off the ball and are responsible for anything deep and outside the hash marks while the MLB covers the middle zone sometimes including deep between the hash marks. The corners play up at the line and use a lot of aggressive physical techniques designed to throw off the timing of a pass play. By the nature of where the players line up the corners are called upon to make a lot more plays in the run game and have more freedom to go for big plays. Meanwhile the safeties start 15 yards or more off the ball and aren't allowed the freedom to take many chances because they are the last line of defense. With this in mind its easy to understand why Ronde Barber has long been among the most consistent and dependable corners in the fantasy game. Most teams that use this scheme like to have big corners that are very physical. Checking in at about 185, Barber is not particularly big but pound for pound he's tough as any player in the game. Prior to the '07 season Barber had been close as it gets to a sure thing at the corner position. From '02 through '06 he averaged nearly 82 tackles per season with a low of 77, was very active in the big play columns and had posted four consecutive top 12 overall finishes at DB. Last season however, that all came to a crashing end when he reached a career low of just 48 solo stops. There are some experts who are pushing the theory that Barber is simply over the hill and in decline. Don't drink that Cool-Aid. He may be on the downside of his career but at age 33 is hardly ready for a wheelchair. There are several factors that contributed to Barber's drop off. The Buccaneers were the leagues #1 pass defense in '07 so there simply weren't as many opportunities. The coaches moved the safeties up more often as teams couldn't pass and tried to run on them. And there is the fact that Barber was often moved inside to cover the slot receiver when the nickel package was on the field. He may never reach 80 tackles again but this is a guy who was 83-15 with 3 picks and 2 forced fumbles in '06. He didn't suddenly get old and decline that far. There is enough risk to drop Barber down the draft board to the area of #2 corner or depth in standard leagues, but with a track record like that, he certainly shouldn't be written off completely... It's rare for any cover 2 safety to have more than mediocre fantasy value. The nature of the scheme has them playing off the ball in most cases and limits their freedom to gamble. In '06 Jermaine Phillips was an exception to that rule when he piled up 89 tackles and had hand in 8 takeaways on the way to a top 10 overall finish among DBs. Last year I suggested that the big tackle production may have been a mirage. That proved to be the case as Phillips came back to earth with a more normal 70 solo stops in '07. He did however, continue to excel in the big play columns as cover 2 safeties are expected to do. With a hand in 7 takeaways, a sack and 7 passes defended, Phillips managed a very respectable top 20 finish. There was a lot of speculation heading into last season, that second round pick Sabby Piscitelli would eventually take over the SS position. That possibility went out the window when the rookie landed on IR after just three games with a broken foot. Phillips played well and will enter camp as the starter but there are rumblings again that he will be pushed by Piscitelli. When a club has the #1 pass defense they are usually in no hurry to mess with the secondary, but stranger things have happened. We need to keep an eye on this one throughout camp as whoever starts here is going to have some value... Everyone anticipated the battle between Piscitelli and Phillips last season but we were all surprised when 4th round pick Tanard Jackson beat out veteran Will Allen for the FS job. Jackson did a good job for the team but playing FS in a cover 2 is comparable to being stuck at SLB in a 4-3. There just aren't going to be enough opportunities... Another player to watch here is rookie corner Aqib Talib. He is expected to work as the nickel back early on but could very soon replace Phillip Buchanon as the starter opposite Barber. Talib has both the physical skills and the mentality to be come another in the long line of fantasy productive cover 2 corners. Buchanon posted a respectable 59 tackles, 3 picks and 10 passes defended from that position last season. If you factor in the rookie corner rule, Talib could be very productive if he wins the job.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Jermaine Phillips - Solid #3 starter with some risk
FS Tanard Jackson - No value
SS Sabby Piscitelli - Sleeper
CB Aqib Talib - Sleeper with big upside in corner required leagues
CB Ronde Barber - Former stud looking to rebound, should make a solid #3 starter at worst
CB Phillip Buchanon - Backup in corner required leagues if he can hold off Talib

Atlanta Falcons

Defensive Line

The Falcons are in a full fledged rebuilding mode and there is no place that it's more evident than the front four. This group has a long way to go and they may not yet have all the horses to get there. After he landed on IR again last season, Atlanta finally parted ways with talented but oft injured tackle Rod Coleman. The problem being that they don't really have anyone who is proven to replace him. 2005 second round pick Jonathan Babineaux could be that guy and will get the first shot to prove it. He saw lot of action as an injury replacement and part time starter over his first two seasons and earned his first full time starting role in '07. At 280 pounds Babineaux is a bit smallish (for a tackle) but the club hopes to take advantage of his quickness and athleticism at the 3 technique position. He didn't have a huge '07 but showed some signs that lend reason for optimism. Babineaux started 12 games and despite playing with a sore knee in several of them, was able to go 41-3-3 with a couple of forced fumbles and a recovery. He was particularly productive late in the season once he had fully recovered. Over the final 7 games he was an impressive 31-2-1 with a forced and a recovered fumble. The tackle numbers over that span of games was certainly impressive but with just 4.5 career sacks, he hasn't shown much ability as an inside pass rusher. Time will tell if Babineaux is the long term answer but one thing is certain, there is no one currently in the mix who will challenge him for playing time. At this point he has earned consideration as a sleeper in leagues that break out the DL positions... Last year's 6th round pick Trey Lewis earned a shot at the starting nose tackle job in '07 but was lost to a knee injury before he could prove himself. He was expected to enter camp as the starter this summer before re-injuring the knee in March and requiring more surgery. Lewis could be ready a some point during the season but chances are he will land on the PUP list if not IR. Prior to the recent addition of Grady Jackson, the Falcons had nothing but a collection of veteran castoffs to compete for the job nose tackle job. Jackson will likely step into that role and should be a big plus for the Falcons by helping to free up Babineaux from double teams. Jackson is a very capable veteran but won't put up more than marginal production at this position... The Falcons invested the 8th overall pick in last year's draft on DE Jamaal Anderson. So far that hasn't worked out very well at all. He was plugged into the lineup early in the season but seemed both confused and overmatched. Anderson wasn't just unproductive, he was downright invisible, totaling just 26 solo tackles and failing to record a single sack. His only shining moment coming when he forced a fumble against Tennessee in week 5. Unfortunately Anderson didn't even seem to improve much as the season wore on. Obviously a lot more is expected of him in his second season and as coach Smith was quick to point out, Anderson still has the skills that got him drafted so high. Maybe the year of experience and the tweaks to the scheme under new defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder can help him turn things around. That said, until he shows us something there is no reason at all to get excited about Anderson. Consider him a dark horse sleeper at best and don't waste a draft pick... There was once a time when John Abraham was considered among the elite defensive ends both in NFL and FFL terms. That seems so long ago. Between the '01 and '02 seasons Abraham was 101-24-23. Then the injuries started coming and he didn't play a full schedule again until 2005, when he was a solid 44-14-10.5 for the Jets. Then the move to Atlanta and more injuries. Abraham has played a full schedule just 4 times in his 8 pro season's. In each of those 4 season's he's totaled 10 or more sacks while falling short of 44 tackles just once. That being last year when he was only 33-1 in the tackle columns. The Falcons were 30th in the league last season with only 25 total sacks. The DL accounted for 17 of those with Abraham recording 10 of them. If they can give him some help and get things headed in the right direction, Abraham has the ability to make a return to the 40+ tackle and 10+ sack club. That's a big if at this point. He is a very talented player with a great deal of potential, but between the injury problems and having no supporting cast to keep offenses honest, he's a very big risk. Don't count on him as more than depth but you could do much worse for a #3 DE.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Jamal Anderson - Sleeper coming off a horrible rookie season
DE John Abraham - Solid #3 with big upside
DE Chauncy Davis - No value
DT Grady Jackson - Possible depth in tackle required leagues
DT Trey Lewis - No value
DT Kindal Moorehead - No value
DT Tim Anderson - No value
DT Jonathan Babineaux - Sleeper for tackle required leagues

Linebacker

Between the new coaching staff and the addition of second round pick Curtis Lofton, there is a lot of speculation and uncertainty surrounding the Falcons linebackers. There is also a great deal of production potential. Despite lining up at SLB, Michael Boley led the Falcons in tackles last season and was the top fantasy option of this group. In fact Boley was the most productive strong side linebacker in the league in '07. His 93-16-3 with 4 forced fumbles and 2 interceptions made Boley the only SLB to finish among the top 20 overall at LB. The question is, can he repeat? As a 16 game starter in '06 Boley totaled a more traditional 68-19-3 from the position. The only obvious changes in '07 being that he remained on the field in the nickel packages and that the Falcons were a much weaker team overall. There have been a handful of strong side linebackers who have provided consistent production over the years, but this is a fairly rare happening and it's very rare for a player at this position to repeat a top 12 finish. There is no guarantee that Boley will continue to see time in the nickel under the new coordinator and with just one year of productive numbers, there is a real concern that his big production could be a one year thing. Boley has proven himself to be a very good player and there is certainly a chance he will continue to be productive. That said, drafting him as more than a third starter will be risky... With the club drafting Lofton to play at MLB, a lot of people have all but written off Keith Brooking this year. Don't make that mistake. Sure he's getting up there in years and is coming off the lowest tackle totals of his career in a non-injury year, but at age 32 he's not an old man even in football terms, and will be returning to his natural position of WLB where he enjoyed the most productive years of his career. The Falcons haven't given us many clues as to how they will use their trio of linebackers but one very telling sign is the announcement that Brooking will wear the helmet with the defensive communications device. That alone all but ensures that he will be an every down player. The last time Brooking lined up at WLB he went 126-18 and was a top 5 LB. With Lofton and Boley in the mix it's doubtful that he will reach that kind of production. However, this is not going to be a good team and there will be plenty of opportunity to go around. Unless something changes that takes him off the field in passing situations (which I don't see happening) Brooking should be good for 90-95 tackles and a few big plays. You can probably draft him in the range of a #3 starter but don't be surprised if he give us #2 production... Lofton brings a lot to this defense. He's a physical presence and a punishing tackler who has a nose for finding the ball and a knack for getting to it. He's a fundamentally sound tackler who rarely misses and can make plays in space. Lofton doesn't time particularly fast but makes up for it with relentless hustle, quick reaction, anticipation and by taking great angles to the ball. He was very productive at Oklahoma where he racked up 157 combined tackles, forced 4 fumbles and picked off 3 passes for the Sooners last season. Most importantly for a club suffering the aftermath of the Vick saga, he's a leader and a class act. In short, he's a great football player. That should translate very well to the pro game and especially to the box scores. Lofton is obviously a dynasty stud in the making and he could be this year's Patrick Willis. That said, there are some short term concerns that could dampen his value as a rookie. Lofton is not a great coverage guy and his lack of speed could be a problem when it comes to picking up backs or some of the leagues quality pass catching tight ends. While I have little doubt he will eventually become an every down player, Lofton could loose snaps in the nickel packages this season. Boley and Brooking are both veterans with polished cover skills and more speed. On the other hand, the Falcons are clearly rebuilding and what better time to get you future star some much needed experience? If Lofton lands a full time role he will contend for the team and possibly the league tackle title. At the worst he should be a solid #3 starter for us with huge long term potential.

Fantasy Prospects

WLB Keith Brooking - Solid #3 starter with #2 potential
MLB Curtis Lofton - Strong sleeper, solid #3 starter with huge long term upside
SLB Michael Boley - Potential #3 starter with some upside but a high risk factor
WLB Stephen Nicholas - Injury sleeper

Defensive Back

Atlanta finished last season with the 23rd ranked pass defense. While that is actually an improvement over the previous season, there is obviously a lot of room for improvement. Sending DeAngelo Hall to Oakland may not seem like the best way to begin that quest, but sometimes you have to take a step back before you can move foreword. In year's past the Atlanta secondary hasn't given us many quality fantasy options. You have to go back a long way to find more tackles than the 76 put up by Lawyer Milloy in '07 and I can't remember them ever having a DB in the top 10 overall. All the history aside, there is some potential here. Milloy has reached 70+ solo stops in each of his two seasons with Atlanta. That alone makes him worthy as a backup in many leagues. Unfortunately he hasn't recorded more than 2 interceptions in a season since he was with New England back in '99. He managed 2 picks last year but has failed to post any in 3 of the past 6 seasons, including '06. Milloy will turn 35 in November and at this point in his career, has no upside... The club may have already prepared for life after Milloy when the drafted Thomas DeCoud in round 3. DeCoud's scouting report reads like a young version of Milloy. Good size, very smart, tough and an intimidating physical presence over the middle of the field. He also has similar shortcomings in that he has just average speed and doesn't make many big plays. DeCoud posted 116 combined tackles but just 1 interception and 2 forced fumbles for California last season. He is somewhat raw and probably won't see a lot of action until late this season if at all, but could be groomed to take over as early as 2009. Consider him a dynasty sleeper with some potential... The Falcons did a good job of upgrading the FS position with the free agent addition of Erik Coleman. Before falling out of favor last season, Coleman had been a fairly productive three year starter for the Jets. Between '04 and '06 he averaged nearly 74 solo stops but saw his interception totals fall from 4 as a rookie to just 2 in '05 and 1 in '06. That eventually got him replaced in New York but the Falcons are going to give him a second chance. When it comes to fantasy numbers however, Coleman may have a hard time overcoming the curse of the Atlanta FS position. You have to go back more than 6 years (and probably much further back) to find the last Falcons FS to reach 60 solo tackles, and only one has managed 55 since the '01 season. He's an upgrade over Chris Crocker but the box score expectations aren't much for Coleman... Replacing Hall on the field would be a a tall order for any young player. Replacing him in the box scores may be virtually impossible in the short term. Hall wasn't exactly a fantasy stud but he did average 57 tackles and 5 interceptions over the past 3 seasons. With veteran free agent pickup Von Hutchins landing on IR, the Falcons are looking at the prospect of going into the season with last year's second round pick Chris Houston and rookie 3rd round pick Chevis Jackson as their starting corners. If that weren't bad enough, the competition for the nickel duties looks to be between '07 sixth round selection David Irons and this year's 7th round pick Wilrey Fontenot. In fact the club's top 5 corners have no career interceptions and only about 12 NFL starts between them. One of these corners will likely to post enough tackles to emerge as a decent option for corner required leagues, but guessing which one is a complete crap shoot. Especially when you consider that the club almost has to pick up some veteran help before the season opens. If forced to pick I would have to go with Houston since he was on pace for 68 tackles in the games he started last season.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Lawyer Milloy - Quality depth at best
FS Erik Cleman - No value
SS/FS Thomas DeCoud - Dynasty sleeper with some potential
CB Chris Houston - Sleeper for corner required leagues
CB Chevis Jackson - Sleeper for corner required leagues
CB David Irons - No value

Carolina Panthers

Defensive Line

There was a time not so long ago when the Panthers boasted one of the game's best defensive lines. My how quickly things change in the NFL. The Carolina front 4 was more than just bad in '07. Despite having one of the leagues premier defensive ends in Julius Peppers, the club was 18th versus the run and 31st in sacks. The entire D-line combined for a pathetic 14.5, this after Peppers had totaled 13 by himself just a season earlier. Peppers was particularly disappointing when his career low 3 sacks didn't even lead his own defensive line. As a result of last year's debacle the coaching staff has made some considerable changes. The scheme will be much different in '08 as they have moved to a more penetrating philosophy that will allow the linemen to attack a gap in an attempt to get up field and be more disruptive. The other big change is that Peppers will switch to the right DE position after having lined up on the left for most of his career. It's hard to say if that will be the answer for Peppers, but after last year's performance nothing can hurt. He has some impressive career sack statistics but I have never been as high on Peppers as some of my peers. Playing him ever week is too much like playing Russian roulette for my liking. In 6 pro seasons he's reached the 40 tackle mark only twice and last year just strengthens my stand that you never know what you will get with him. The inconsistency however, goes much deeper. Even in 2006 when Peppers was a top 5 lineman at 49-9-13, 10 of his sacks came in just 4 outings and he posted 5 or fewer fantasy point 8 times over the final 10 games. Peppers is a great player with a lot of potential but all things considered, he will be drafted way too high. Let someone else pull their hair out all season... I believe it may take more than a few tweaks to put life back in this unit. What they need an infusion of talent. There is no questioning that Peppers is capable, but even he can't do it alone. This unit has struggled since the decline of Keith Rucker who finally retired after last season. The organization hopes that last year's 3rd round pick Charles Johnson can eventually be the bookend to Peppers. Johnson was very productive at Georgia where he totaled 44 solo tackles and 9.5 sacks before entering the draft as a junior. It's probably not a good sign that despite all the team's struggles, he spent most of last season on the inactive list. The Panthers other options at DE are third year pro Stanley McClover and free agent pick up Tyler Brayton. McClover was playing well last preseason. and had a lot of people expecting big things of him. Unfortunately a groin injury on the eve of week one quelled the fire he was trying to build and caused him to spend much of the season with Johnson on the inactive list. With Peppers and Johnson both injured, McClover got a chance to start in week 17. He made the best of that opportunity going 2-1-1. No one has been talking about him over the offseason. but it would come as little surprise to me if McClover were to win the starting job by week 1... Heading into camp it looks as if Brayton will get the first chance at the position. Unless something has changed with this guy since he was a first round bust in Oakland 5 years ago, this will be a short marriage. In '02 and '03 the Raiders gave Brayton a 2 year opportunity to prove himself as a starter. He was solid versus the run but totaled just 5 sacks between those two seasons. After a year on the bench they tried to bring him back in 2006 as a tackle but that didn't work out either. In short, if they don't find a better option than Brayton it could be another long season in Carolina... The last time Carolina gave us a productive interior lineman was 2003 when Kris Jenkins went 39-7-5. Since that time no one has even approached the top 15 at the position. In the new scheme Lewis will line up as the 3 technique tackle with 340 pound Ma'ake Kemoeatu working at nose guard and sucking up blockers. Lewis has 8 sacks over the past two seasons and the change should free him up to make more plays. It just might be enough to make him a decent backup in tackle required leagues.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Julius Peppers - Plenty of potential but consistency is an issue
DE Charles Johnson - Sleeper with good upside
DE Stanley McClover - Sleeper with some potential
DE/DT Tyler Brayton - No value unless proven otherwise
DT Damione Lewis - Sleeper with limited upside in tackle required leagues
DT Ma'ake Kemoeatu - No value

Linebacker

Over the past two season Carolina has turned a position of need into a position of strength. The first round selection of Jon Beason last April was a huge first step. As a rookie Beason was initially plugged in at WLB but everyone knew that it wouldn't be long before Dan Morgan went down again and Beason could be moved to the MLB position he was drafted to fill. Right on cue Morgan was lost in week 3 and Beason was immediately settled in at his new home. He may not have been as productive as Patrick Willis but it's hard to complain about 106 solo tackles and a top 10 finish. If he had been in the middle from the start his production would have been even better. Strong as his numbers were, there is room for improvement with Beason, who didn't put many marks in the big play columns. It's not at all unusual for rookies to have that problem and they often come on strong in those areas once they reach a comfort zone. Beason is going to be a perennial LB1 for many years to come and it would be no shock to see him among the top 5 as soon as this season... When the Panthers grabbed Penn State MLB Dan Connor in the third round this year, there were some grumblings about Beason moving back to the weak side so Connor could start in the middle. Don't buy into that. Beason was picked to play in the middle and be the leader of this defense for years to come. He's going nowhere. That said, the selection of Connor was a bit puzzling at first, but the Panthers may have given us a clue when they recently shifted Thomas Davis to WLB. Connor was very successful at MLB as a senior but had played the majority of his college career at OLB. Could the long term plan be to use Connor at SLB? That seems likely at this point when you consider the rest of their roster. Na'il Diggs is a solid veteran who will enter camp as the starter but he's not a special player by any stretch. James Anderson is entering his third season and makes most of his contribution on special teams. If he were the answer it would have happened long before now. Landon Johnson is an experienced and versatile veteran who can fill in anywhere but is best suited as a backup to all three positions. Over the next few years a starting combo of Connor, Beason and Davis could prove to be the best the Panthers have had in their short history... When the Panthers announced that Davis was moving to the weak side you could almost hear the collective voice of the IDP community say in unison "it's about #%&@ time! Davis has been wasted at SLB long enough. At last he will be able to use his speed and athleticism to chase down plays. Working in the nickel packages has helped Davis to post very respectable numbers for a strong side linebacker over the past two years. His role in the nickel will continue but he will also have more freedom to range and make plays without being accounted for in the blocking scheme on many running downs. That should make a significant difference in his overall production but be careful not to get overly excited about this news. Think back a few years to when Will Witherspoon was paired with a semi-healthy Dan Morgan. So long as Morgan was on the field, Witherspoon's numbers were kept in to an LB3 or backup level. The same could happen with Beason and Davis. I look for Davis to reach the 80 tackle mark for the first time in his career and make enough big plays to be a quality third starter or an excellent backup.

Fantasy Prospects

MLB Jon Beason - Solid LB1 poised to take his place among the elite
WLB Thomas Davis - Move to WLB should make him a solid third starter or excellent backup
SLB Na'il Diggs- No value
MLB Dan Connor - Injury/dynasty sleeper, we need to see where he is used
OLB Landon Johnson - Injury sleeper with limited upside
WLB James Anderson -No value

Defensive Back

Carolina is still searching for a long term answer at free safety but they seem to be in good shape at the rest of the secondary positions. The trade for Chris Harris last August has turned out great for both the club and the IDP community. Shortly after joining the club Harris landed at strong safety position where he played so well in '07 that the Panthers were quick to sign him to a fat new 4 year deal in February. Harris missed one game with a sore neck but still managed to be the fantasy games top safety. His 76-20 in the tackle columns were very solid but it was the league leading 8 forced fumbles that pushed his value so high. Harris is a physical player and a big hitter but expecting him to repeat that gaudy total would be a big mistake, especially when you consider that he hadn't forced a single fumble in his previous two seasons with the Bears. Harris will be hard pressed to make the top 5 again but 75-80 tackles and 5-6 big plays are reasonable expectations and would make him a very dependable #2 starter... Terrence Holt was signed to replace Deke Cooper started at FS last season. Holt saw some time as a starter with the Lions in '05 and '06 before moving on to Arizona where he started all 16 games last season. He did an adequate job with both teams but wasn't impressive enough to garner a long term deal from either of them. Holt provides a veteran option but won't be handed the starting job without some competition. Nate Salley was the 4th round pick of the Panthers in '06 and is a player the team has high expectations of. He was working with the first team early in last year's training camp before suffering a knee injury that eventually landed him on IR. History tells us that there isn't much box score production to be found at this position regardless of who starts... There has been plenty of production at the corner position in recent years. Particularly since the club drafted Richard Marshall in the second round 2 years ago. Despite officially being the team's nickel DB, Marshall has gone 70-13 and 79-10 in the past two seasons with 2 sacks, 2 FF, 4 recoveries, 6 picks and 26 passes defended between them, and has been a top 10 corner in both seasons. What I don't understand is how the Carolina coaching staff can justify not having him in the starting lineup? It's scary to use an upper-middle round pick on a guy who doesn't even start on his own team, but Marshall's '07 season proves that his '06 was no fluke. He's reached 6 or more fantasy points in 26 of his 32 career games and has hit double digits in nearly half of them. He has to be considered among the top 5 in corner required leagues and is a solid #2 or excellent #3 for any of us... Starters Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas are both very good corners which makes Marshall's not starting somewhat tolerable. Both have given us good production at times in their careers but neither has finished higher that 29th among corners since Marshall's arrival. There is no reason to expect a change in that trend this year... The Panthers used a 3rd round pick on Charles Godfrey in April. He is a versatile player who spent time at both corner and safety during his days at Iowa. He is considered a bit of a raw talent but has great measurables and a lot of long term potential. Most believe Godfrey was targeted by the team to eventually fill the void at FS. With Lucas and Gamble both nearing the end of their contracts, that may not necessarily be the case. Barring an injury among the starters, Godfrey is unlikely to make much of an impact as a rookie but his development is worth keeping an eye on for the future.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Chris Harris- Solid #3 starter at worst with good upside
FS Terrence Holt - Minimal value at best
FS Nate Salley - Minimal value at best
CB Chris Gamble - Possible depth in large leagues that breakout the DB positions
CB Ken Lucas - Possible depth in large leagues that breakout the DB positions
CB Richard Marshall - Stud in corner required leagues, decent #2 or quality #3 for the rest of us
CB Charles Godfrey - Dynasty sleeper

New Orleans Saints

Defensive Line

It's been a long time since the days when Saints DT Wayne Martin reached 45+ tackles and double digit sacks for 5 consecutive seasons, and most people have long forgotten that La'Roi Glover led the league with 17 sacks in 2000 as an interior lineman in New Orleans. There is a rich history of production from the Saints tackle positions and when the club traded up to land Sedrick Ellis at #7 a lot of fantasy owners began dreaming of a return to those glory days. Don't get your hopes up. Ellis has all the tools to be an outstanding player for the Saints but he's not of the same skill set as Martin or Glover. He's a rock versus the run with the ability to be disruptive, but he's not a prolific pass rusher. There is also the fact that he is expected to start at the nose tackle position. That means he will face a multitude of double teams. Ellis is quick and athletic enough to get off blocks and make plays in the running game, and will likely land a few sacks along the way, but the majority of his value to the Saints is not going to show up in the box scores. Ellis may be good enough to overcome the position and be a productive option in tackle required leagues but 40 tackles and 4-5 sacks will likely be his ceiling. There is however, one scenario that could change the outlook for Ellis completely. Last season Hollis Thomas played a lot at nose tackle with several players seeing time at the 3 technique position. Journeyman Kendrick Clancy is currently penciled in as the starter at that position but he neither a special player nor a long term answer. There is at least some chance that the coaching staff could shift Ellis to that position and leave the dependable Thomas at NT. In this case Ellis would have a much greater, or at least more visible impact... In 2004 Charles Grant was the fantasy game's #1 lineman with a monstrous 67 solo tackles, 11 sacks and a wad of other big plays. Since that time his production has slumped considerably and he's been written off by most fantasy owners. Grant has added some serious legal issue to the list of reason not to draft him this year but we should take a closer look at him anyway. Since 2002 he has totaled no fewer than 44 tackles in a 16 game season with last year's total of 40 coming in 14 contests. In '06 he was a top 15 lineman at 50-15-6 while playing with a turf toe injury for much of the season. Last year brought the second lowest totals of his career in both tackles and sacks, but if you look at the game logs you see that he was on pace for 61 tackles and 5.5 sacks when he tore a ligament in his ankle. Grant missed a couple of games but then toughed it out and finished the season. He had surgery to repair the ankle and is healthy entering '08. The only thing that seems to be standing in the way of a solid season is the judge in his manslaughter case. That is obviously a serious issue but in reality the chances of this case affecting his playing status this season is slim. Trials like this can last several months, especially when Grant's lawyers will be looking to drag it out until after the season. The other news involving Grant also revolves around Bobby McCray who will be the team's 3rd end this season. After seeing significant playing time and recording 9.5 sacks for the Jaguars in 2006, McCray was used very little last season and thus took the free agent train to New Orleans. There are reports that he is seeing time in some situational packages including the nickel where he has lined up at both end with Grant sliding inside, and tackle with Grant remaining at end. The purpose is obviously for the club to get it's best pass rushers on the field in passing situations, but the key point here is that Grant is not leaving the field in any situation. Grant reportedly arrived at camp slimmed down and in great shape. Don't be too quick to drop him off your draft list completely, he may be a welcome sight in the late rounds when you are in need a quality backup... While Grant is likely to be under rated by many, Will Smith is just the opposite. He is often ranked among the top 10 on draft boards but has yet to finish any of his 4 seasons among the top 10 linemen. He's reached the all important 40 tackle mark just twice in 4 years and is coming off a career low 6.5 sacks in '07. Don't get me wrong, Smith is a very good player and it's worthy of mention that the 46-20-6.5 combined with 2 FF and 3 recoveries in '07, led to the highest ranking of his career. As a #2 starter there are few better but he's not the #1 that many owners draft him to be.

Fantasy Prospects

DE Charles Grant - Quality backup with good upside if he can stay out of jail and avoid injury
DE Will Smith - Quality #2 starter
DE Bobby McCray - Injury sleeper
DT Sedrick Ellis - Potential starter in tackle required leagues
DT Hollis Thomas - No value
DT Kendrick Clancy - No value

Linebacker

At the end of 2007 the Saints found themselves in dire need of a quality middle linebacker. Meanwhile Jonathan Vilma found himself desperate to escape the Jets 3-4 scheme in which he simply didn't fit. Fortunately for us, the two sides were able to get together. As a rookie in 2004 Vilma got off to a slow start but once he settled into a full time role the numbers began to climb. In '05 Vilma put on a show that had everyone believing he was destined to be one of the great linebackers in the game. His instinctive play and natural ability to sniff out ball carriers and attack them, led to a league best 128 solo tackles and a finish as the fantasy game's top IDP. Then came the coaching change and the move to a 3-4 scheme. Vilma was saddled with responsibilities in the scheme that took away the strength of his game by requiring him think rather than react, to be in a specific place rather than simply attack the ball and to take on offensive linemen more than he ever had before. At 230 pounds that simply wasn't his game. The Saints will put Vilma back into his element. They drafted Sedrick Ellis to help protect him and will happily give Vilma the freedom to react and make plays. He probably won't approach the 128 tackle mark but there is little doubt that Vilma will be very productive. He could be a triple digit tackle guy and will likely make a return to the top 10. The only thing that could hold him back is the knee injury he suffered last season, but that seems to be behind him as he has been practicing with no limitations in the early days of camp. Vilma may slide a little due to being unproven in his new situation but don't wait too long or he'll be beating you up for someone else in December... Scott Fujita has been the best fantasy prospect among the Saints linebackers over the past couple of years, but that isn't saying much. His 76 tackles led the club in '07 and were the second highest total of his career. With Vilma in the middle he may be hard pressed to reach even that meager total. Fujita is a good player and will server the Saints well but his box score contribution will be limited and make him depth in large leagues at best. Scott Shanle fills out the starting lineup. Like Fujita he is a solid but unspectacular veteran player. Shanle takes a seat in passing situations which is enough to kill what little potential he may have had... Depth at the LB positions could be a serious problem for the Saints. They have marginal former starter Mark Simoneau behind Vilma but beyond Simoneau there is no one with a single game of starting experience and very little NFL experience at all.

Fantasy Prospects

SLB Scott Fujita - Depth at best
MLB Jonathan Vilma - Should return to top 10 status, quality #2 at worst
WLB Scott Shanle - No value
MLB Mark Simoneau - Marginal player with limited potential in any situation

Defensive Back

The Saints were 30th against the pass in '07 so as you would expect, there are going to be some changes. At the outset of training camp it's hard to say who will be starting at corner in week 1. Mike McKenzie will be a lock at one position if he can overcome the knee injury he suffered in December. He was recently cleared to practice and the club is hopeful all will be well. Last year's big free agent addition was corner Jason David who came in fresh of the Colts Super Bowl win. As stated in last year's EOTG, David was riding the wave of the Super Bowl win and was not an upgrade by any stretch. He was burned early and often last season and has been busted down the depth chart. How far down remains to be seen. The Saints signed oft injured former Patriots backup Randall Gay to compete with David, last year's 3rd round pick Usama Young, this year's second round pick Tracy Porter and veteran Jason Craft for a spot in the pecking order. Gay hasn't played enough for us to tell if this move is an upgrade or just another lateral step. There has been very little fantasy value at the Saints corner positions in recent years. You have to go back to 2003 to find the last New Orleans corner to post more than 61 tackles and you have to go much further than that to find a Saint among the top 15 corners. That said, with the situation as it is, we could see a lot of Porter and/or Young. In which case the rookie corner rule could come into play... There is uncertainty at the safety positions as well. Three year starter Josh Bullocks may be in danger of losing the FS job to Kevin Kaesviharn. The coaching staff was not completely satisfied with the play of Bullocks over the course of last season. Then an injury in week 14 gave Kaesviharn a chance to start, and he's been working with the first team ever since. That may be only because Bullocks is still recovering from a knee injury but the coaching staff has hinted that it may become a permanent thing. Dating back to his years in Cincinnati, Kaesviharn has been very productive when given an opportunity to play on a regular basis. He's not a big physical presence but is a dependable tackler who doesn't make mistakes and is productive in the area of big plays. He totaled 5.5 sacks, 9 interceptions and 17 passed defended as an injury fill in and nickel back over his final 2 years with the Bengals. Bullocks doesn't have that kind of numbers in three seasons as a starter for the Saints... There were some grumblings during last season that SS Roman Harper's job could be in jeopardy as well. That rumor seemed to go away as the season wore on and Harper's play improved. In the end his earlier shortcomings were blamed mostly on the knee injury that cut his rookie season short. Harper totaled a solid 75-15-4 with 3 picks, a pair of forced fumbles and 8 passes defended in '07, for a final ranking of #2 among safeties. Not only were the final numbers very good but he may have been the most consistent DB in the game. Harper totaled 9 or more fantasy points an impressive 12 times, falling short of 6 only once. Consistency like that is hard to find at any position. The addition of Vilma may make tackle opportunities a little more scarce for the secondary this year but look at it this way, in '05 when Vilma had those 128 tackles, strong safety Kerry Rhodes posted a career best of 86 as well. Don't downgrade Harper because of Vilma. Being 2 years removed from the injury and entering the third year of his career, Harper may be even more productive.

Fantasy Prospects

SS Roman Harper - Solid #1 starter with top 5 potential
FS Josh Bullocks - Depth at best
FS Kevin Kaesviharn- Sleeper with some upside
CB Mike McKenzie - No value
CB Randall Gay - No value
CB Jason David - No value
CB Tracy Porter - Sleeper, rookie corner rule may come into play

That about does it for the preseason edition of the EOTG. I'll be back for the weekly version starting in week 1. Meanwhile check out Bob Henry's training camp reports that include IDP updates, and be sure to listen in on "The Audible" podcast series which will include a weekly IDP show with my colleagues Jene Bramel, Sigmund Bloom and myself. Footballguys now has a seven-man staff that concentrates on nothing but IDP coverage so there will be plenty of knowledge and news to soak up from now until the end of the season.

Best of luck to everyone on your drafts and as my hero Al Davis says, Just Win Baby!!