Eyes of the Guru - Week 9
Posted 10/30 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
It seems the theme for this week is change and there is plenty of it heading to week 9.
Atlanta Falcons
Jamaal Anderson was a complete bust as a rookie and for the first month plus of this season as well, but he was a first round pick for a reason. It took him 21 games to record his first sack but he's now gotten to the QB in each of the last two games. There was a lot of discussion about how the previous coaching staff misused him. The new regime has made it a point work hard with him and to restore his confidence. That seems to be paying off for them. Now that teams have turned all their attention to shutting down John Abraham (1 sack in last 4 games) Anderson has finally begun to take advantage. He still has a long way to go before we need to get excited but 6-0-2 in the last two games is a place to start and reason enough to give him some attention.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Since the club drafted Sabby Piscitelli there has been much speculation that he would eventually replace Jermaine Phillips at SS. Phillips has managed to hold onto his starting job for the past two seasons but has been loosing enough snaps snaps to Piscitelli this season to seriously hinder his value. Piscitelli has played well when given the opportunity and will now get an extended audition as the starter. Phillips is expected to miss 4-6 weeks with his broken forearm. Personally I will be surprised if he plays more than one more game this year. Just ask Roy Williams how that works. At any rate, the Bucks SS production will now be united under Piscitelli who should be very productive. I wouldn't risk taking a wait and see approach with this guy, even if they are playing the hapless Chiefs this week.
Houston Texans
Dunta Robinson was supposed to be eased back into action as he returned from injury. Sure he was. It was kind of like the guy who sticks his toe in the water to see how cold it is before diving in head first. The Vikings weren't a particularly good match up early on when they were afraid to throw the ball, but that has changed of late. With Guss Frerotte at the helm they are winging it around to everyone. That includes guys with the other color on. Robinson went 7-2 with a pick versus the lowly Bengals. He back and he's a must start in corner required leagues. Even/especially against the Vikings... For those who may be wondering, DeMeco Ryans is not injured (that we know of at least). He simply had a horrible game as was to be expected with this match up. If you followed the advice of several FBG staff members, he wasn't in your lineup anyway... In two starts SS Brandon Harrison looked like a world beater. Then he was banged up a little in the second half two weeks ago and now he's back on the bench with Nick Ferguson getting the call. My how quickly things can change.
Jacksonville Jaguars
There has been a Mike Peterson sighting in Jacksonville! After several weeks of decent but mediocre numbers by his standards, Peterson blew up for 10 solo stops against Cleveland. Hopefully that will be enough to warrant keeping him on your roster for the next two weeks when he has two if the worst match ups in the game. Don't looks for much from him this week against Cincinnati or next week when the Jags go to Detroit. However, if you are patient with him Peterson will pay off big when you need him for a playoff run. Weeks 12 through 17 Jacksonville will face the Titans, Vikings, Texans, Bears, Packer, Colts and Ravens. That's a gauntlet of outstanding match ups. Especially if Indy can get their act together... Brian Williams was very solid for us early on but things have changed in the Jags defensive backfield of late. The coaching staff responded to the shortcomings of James Williams by shifting Brian Williams out of the SS position in many if not most situations. Now instead of an in the box SS he is seeing a lot of snaps as a nickel corner covering the slot receiver. As a result he hasn't reached 5 solo stops since week 5 and unfortunately there is no reason to expect the trend to reverse at this point.
Kansas City Chiefs
Much can change from week to week in the NFL. Some of it we see coming and some we don't. After the week 7 games it seemed certain that DaJuan Morgan was well on his way to pushing Bernard Pollard out of the lineup. At the least it was a given that the two would be sharing time. In last week's column I suggested it was time to cut our losses and move on. So sure of was I, that I dropped Pollard in 3 dynasty leagues. Wouldn't you know that week 8 would be his best production of the season (7-2) while Morgan was nowhere to be seen. In fact when Jarrad Page was knocked out of the game the coaching staff called upon Jon McGraw to play at FS. At this point I'm not sure what we should expect here but it would probably be a good idea to grab Pollard back up and sit on him for a week or two until the muddy water clears... Donnie Edwards didn't make a huge splash in his return to action but you need to be aware that he was an every down linebacker and stayed on the field in passing situations. None of the Chiefs linebackers have been great but don't be surprised if Edwards leads the club in tackles over the final 8 games. Owners in deep leagues should consider him on this weeks waiver wire.
St. Louis Rams
Leonard Little was red hot when he returned to the lineup a few weeks back, racking up 4.5 sacks in 3 starts. Many of us reaped the benefit for a few games but paid the price when his hamstring injury bit us again in week 8. We need to keep a sharp eye out for news on this injury late this week. Little said after the game that it may have just been some scar tissue that he felt and that he was feeling fine. If that's the case then it's business as usual and we put him back in the lineup for week 9. If it turns out to be worse than that it's time to scour the waiver wires and see if James Hall is available. Hall had some great games early in the year when he filled in for Little and would return to the starting lineup if Little's injury lingers. Little did not participate in practice on Wednesday and worked with Adam Carriker on the sideline.
Seattle Seahawks
On last week's IDP Audible Podcast we talked about the idea of handcuffing stud linebackers or linebackers in great situations. Lofa Tatupu owners should seriously consider this option at this point. You almost get the idea that Tatupu has angered the big man up above, or at least that he's destined to end the season early. They could write a medical journal on this poor guy. Knee bruise, broken thumb (playing in a cast), concussion and now a groin injury. All that and we're just half way through the season. At best Tatupu is not going to be completely healthy at any point during this season. At worst the club will shut him down early to let him heal. D.D. Lewis has come on in each of the last two games and been very productive (8-3 and 6-4) despite playing only about 3 quarters in each game. Seattle is in a tail spin that they aren't likely to pull out of. Loosing your MLB in that situation would be costly. Tatupu will likely be questionable this week but the early word is that he will play... The hits keep coming for Seattle who could be without Patrick Kerney this week. Kerney left Sunday's game after re-injuring the same shoulder he previously had surgery on. He had it heavily iced and taped after the game on Sunday. Watch the injury reports. If he doesn't play look for Darryl Tapp to switch sides and Lawrence Jackson to get another shot at the lineup.
Washington Redskins
The Steelers have been a great match up for most defenders this season but there are a lot of things about this weeks match up that make me nervous. My esteemed colleague Sigmund Bloom named Andre Carter as his player to start this week but I'm just not so sure. Yes Big Ben has been knocked around like a pinball all season but on the other hand, Washington hasn't been able to knock anyone's QB around. In fact only the Bungals, Jags and Chiefs have fewer sacks than Washington. Then there is the fact that Jason Taylor is out and Cornelius Griffin will likely sit again also. Not to mention the goose egg that Carter laid in week 8 (I had Carter and Leonard Little starting in an experts league last weekend OUCH!). Demetric Evans and Anthony Montgomery just aren't going to scare anyone and the Steelers will be concentrating on Carter who is the only real rush threat. Sig, I hope you are right but I'm still sitting Carter this week... A lot of people were burned when the Redskins listed Chris Horton as probable then scratched him after it was too late for many of us to do anything about it. We may be in a similar situation this week with the Skins playing on Monday night. He's a solid start with the match up but imagine how you might feel sitting down to watch on Monday and counting on Horton to pull out a close game, only to see Mike Green go 5-1 at SS again. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice... well you know. Unless there is some very definitive word during the week it might be a good idea to play it safe.
Dallas Cowboys
One of the big questions floating around the IDP game this week is about the sudden surge of production from Zach Thomas. You may remember that I was not at all high on Thomas during the draft season, but don't blow this off as a fluke. Things can change in a hurry and they definitely have done just that in Dallas. For starter we now have Wade Phillips calling the defensive plays. Maybe even more importantly, the Cowboys are running out of defensive backs in a hurry. Early on the club was using what amounted to a dime package in passing situations with Ken Hamlin playing up in the box as a linebacker. Dallas doesn't even have 6 healthy DBs right now, so Thomas is staying on the field in that role with Hamlin back deep in the FS position. When we can pinpoint things that explain a change in trends it's usually for real. So is Thomas at this point.
New York Jets
There is a lot of impact IDP news with the Jets this week. It all starts with David Harris who left early in Sunday's game with an injury. The Jets haven't given us much to go on here. In fact as of Wednesday we know that we're waiting on the MRI results but they are still leaving us to speculate if it's a hip or groin injury. One report claims that it's a fairly serious groin problem and that Harris is highly unlikely to play this week. The ripple effect here could be big for us if he is out an extended period of time. The Jets don't even have a backup ILB on their roster. Against the Chiefs the club shifted former DE turned 3-4 OLB David Bowens inside. Bowens will likely start there in week 9 but the guy for us to grab is Eric Barton. He's a very solid veteran who will take over the feature ILB role which includes MLB in the nickel packages. In fact, if Harris is indeed ruled out, Barton would make a strong sleeper to start this week against Buffalo who has been an outstanding match up for linebackers... The other player who stands to benefit is Kerry Rhodes. Early in the season the coaches were playing him way off the ball and his numbers were weak. Over the past three games he's looked a lot like the top 5 stud we had seen in previous years. He was 5-3 with a pass defended against Arizona, 7-2 at Oakland and 8-1-1 against the Chiefs. I didn't notice if it was the case against Arizona or Oakland, but against the Chiefs Rhodes was working much closer to the line, just like the old days. With Harris gimpy and likely out, the defensive coaches are likely to keep him up there to help out. Grab him if you can.
New England Patriots
While doing the projections this week I realized a trend that makes it very easy to predict what Jerod Mayo will produce this weekend against the Colts. Lance Briggs, E.J. Henderson, Mike Peterson, Ray Lewis, Nick Barnett and Keith Bulluck all recorded exactly 5 solo tackles against Indy.
Buffalo Bills
With a strong 7-0-1 safety Bryan Scott led the Bills in tackle for week 8. In general we think of one week as a fluke and two as a trend. You will probably have time to look at this one for another week. That said, here is what you need to know. Scott was once a very promising young player who piled up 86 solo tackle for the Falcons back in 2004. He was off to a good start the following year when a shoulder injury set him back and he's never been the same again. Scott has been floating around the Bills roster since last season when he went 13-6 with a PD over the final 3 games. The Bills are dealing with some injuries in the secondary so against Miami they made some fairly drastic adjustments that included plugging in Scott at SS with Donte Whitner seeing action at FS and even as a nickel corner at times. Clubs try things out of desperation at times but when they work it often translates to permanent change. I'm not suggesting that this is necessarily the case here but it sure worked well against Miami. Lets see what they do this week... Owners looking for a solid contributor at LB should check the waiver wire for Kawika Mitchell. He hasn't been real flashy but has played very well of late and is on a streak of three very productive games. He's averaging just over 5 solo stops a game but has a pick, a sack and a pair of forced fumbles in those three games.
Cincinnati Bengals
Owners in tackle required leagues may want to keep Pat Sims on your radar screens. The rookie 3rd round pick was basically the booby prize when the club lost out on Sedrick Ellis. Sims has been seeing a lot of time over the past three games and is actually looking pretty decent both on the field and in the box scores where he has a mark of 10-4 including a very solid (for a DT) 5-0 against the Texans last weekend. The Bengals see him as a future starter and will likely continue to play him regularly the rest of the way, even with John Thornton healthy... SLB Rashad Jeanty has surprisingly risen to the team's second leading tackler. This has very little to do with talent or ability and has a lot to do with where this team is softest. Offenses have watched enough tape to know that while the Bungals are hurting in general, their strong side defense can be exploited. That's where Houston attacked them and fully explains why Jeanty (7-2) Dexter Jackson (6-2) Jonathan Joseph (5-2) and Antwan Odom (4-0) were all among the team's top 6 tacklers in week 8. It's a copy cat league so don't be surprised if this trend continues.
Cleveland Browns
For starters lets address the career game that Shaun Rogers turned in against Jacksonville. Who knows what motivated him to that level but the reality is that he may never have a game like that again and certainly can't be counted on for any consistent big production. Rogers has his big games but the reason he's not in Detroit (other than the incompetent decision making of management) is that he has struggled with consistency his entire career. Don't let one huge game cloud your decision making and cost you 2-3 before you come to your senses... Sean Jones returned a weak ago and went large. His week 8 numbers were a solid 5-1 but keep an eye on the injury reports later this week. Jones came out of Sunday's contest with a sore and swollen knee. It's unclear how or if this will effect his availability for week 9 but is is certainly an issue as of Wednesday.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Note to the Steelers coaching staff: Lawrence Timmons is an animal, please stop teasing us by unleashing him one week then locking him up the next! In week 7 it seemed they had finally come to their senses and made the move that would put this guy on the field full time. Then against the Giants he returned to a part time role. Who knows what they are thinking on this one, but it's apparent that we can't trust them enough to make Timmons a starter for us. Not yet at least. That said, If you have or can get your hands on James Farrior, get him into your lineup this week against Washington. This may well be the best match up in the game for a linebacker right now. Just look at some of the numbers it's produced to date. Vilma 10-6, Hayes 9-4, Zach Thomas 6-6, Stewart Bradley 8-2 and even Paris Lenon 8-1. Need I say more?
Green Bay Packers
We need to keep an eye on the Packers secondary this week. For the first time in many weeks they will likely have all three of their safeties available. Before the injury shuffle started it was Nick Collins and Atari Bigby as the starters. Collins has solidified himself at FS but Aaron Rouse has certainly made a case for the starting SS job. This is the week the Packers coaching staff has to make a tough decision. If Rouse starts, get right on him next week when waivers open... Without going into a long explanation, it might be a good idea to sit Aaron Kampman this week. Especially if you are in a league that emphasizes sacks. The Titans have allowed just 2 on the season.
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings twin towers Pat and Kevin Williams have been named in the most recent NFL substance scandal. They and the 12 other players implicated are going to appeal of course but if that appeal fails they are likely to get a 4 game vacation. That will have a huge negative impact on the Vikings as a team but could be a big positive for those of us who have Ben Leber or Chad Greenway. Both of those guys are LB3 or backup quality in most leagues at this point but imaging what it would do for them if teams were actually able to run the ball a little on this defense. Their opportunities could expand exponentially. Especially if the team continues to struggle offensively.
Chicago Bears
Just a quick reminder to sit Brian Urlacher this week if you have a decent backup option. The Lions are a horrible match up for middle linebackers. He went 2-2 against them in week 5.
Best of luck in week 9.
