Eyes of the Guru - Week 17
Posted 12/24 by John Norton, Exclusive to Footballguys.com
Cheers to all the champions! Bask in the glory of your achievement for a while but keep in mind that everyone else is already working to make sure you don't repeat. For those who fell short, it's never too early to look ahead to next season. As my long time readers know the week 17 EOTG is always dedicated to a look foreword. The NFL is always evolving and there will be a lot of changes by the time teams take the field in September. Here are some of the many situations/players that we need to keep an eye on.
Atlanta Falcons
All eye should be on the Falcons LB situation this offseason. Many of the FBG writers have expressed their belief that Curtis Lofton is going to have a very long and bright future in IDP terms. There has been no consistency at all with any of the Atlanta linebackers this season but look for that to change in 2009 when Lofton takes on an every down role as the centerpiece of this defense. In fact, there may well be new faces flanking him on both sides. The coaching staff seems to have soured on Michael Boley who was benched in favor of Coy Wire in week 15 and Keith Brooking will be 34 in October. Wire isn't a long term answer here and most interestingly, all three of these guys are unrestricted free agents at seasons end. Don't be surprised if the club uses the draft and/or free agency to address this situation and don't be surprised when Lofton steps up big in his second season. The Falcons also have issues along the DL and at DB. Linemen Grady Jackson, Chauncey Davis and Jonathan Babineaux have all played a significant role in the success of this defense and all are set to become free agents. Also set to become a free agent is starting corner Dominique Foxworth. At safety Lawyer Milloy has played well and remains under contract he'll be 36 in November so how much longer can he play? At least at the DB positions the club has some talented youth in position to step up. Third round pick Thomas DeCoud is likely to get a shot at the starting SS job during camp. The coaches seem to be high on young corners Chevis Jackson and Brent Grimes who started for them early in the season. So they may be set in the secondary. It will be an interesting offseason here to say the least.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints obviously need to improve on defense but where and/or who is hard to call at this point. Jonathan Vilma will be a free agent after the season and is likely to be at the top of the priority list. Between the injury to Charles Grant and impending suspensions of he and Will Smith that are likely to be served at the beginning of next season, defensive end could be a major need as could another young stud corner to pair with Tracy Porter for the long term. Josh Bullocks is also set to be a free agent but with Kevin Kaesviharn in the fold the money will likely be spent elsewhere.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Derrick Brooks will be 36 in April so once again we enter the offseason wondering who will be at WLB for the Bucs next season. Brooks reportedly gave no consideration to retirement before the 2008 season and remains under contract, so there is a reasonable chance he will be back for a 14th season. He did however see his workload lessened this year when he sat out some passing situations over the course of the season. Speculation has Cato June waiting in the wings to take over once Brooks hangs up the cleats but don't be surprised if rookie Geno Hayes makes some noise once that situation finally comes up... Rookie corner Aqib Talib should step into a starting roll even if the club does try to retain Phillip Buchanon who is headed for free agency... The DL is likely to see the most change. Jovan Haye had a huge '07 season but hit '08 campaign has been far less than impressive. Haye, backup Ryan Sims and starting DE Kevin Carter (who moves inside on passing downs) are all headed for free agency, leaving the Bucs thin on the inside. One player who could benefit here is DE Greg White who has worked mostly in passing situations for the past couple of years. He could get a chance to play on every down if Carter is not resigned... Heading into this season there was a lot of speculation that Sabby Piscitelli was the future of the SS position here. After seeing him play extensively for an injured Jermaine Phillips, it seems as if Phillips job is safe. Piscitelli has shown flashes and hasn't played poorly, but neither has he impressed. Unless the shows great improvement during came next summer, the Bucs will be a better defense with Phillips is on the field.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina has a couple of key free agents in Julius Peppers and Chris Gamble. Peppers is coming off one of the best years of his career and despite the relative success of Tyler Brayton and the emergence of second year pro Charles Johnson, will likely get the franchise tag if they can't get him resigned. Gamble on the other hand, may not be as high on the priority list. Richard Marshall is an excellent corner who has patiently been awaiting his opportunity. I would expect the Panthers to make an effort to retain Gamble but outstanding corners are at a premium and Gamble's price tag will be steep. Having a backup plan like Marshall may force their hand. As the nickel corner Marshall has been inconsistent in the box scores but a full time role would put him on par with the top fantasy corners such as Antoine Winfield.
Indianapolis Colts
Colts linebackers have traditionally been quality IDP options but there tends to be a lot of turnover on the roster at these positions as well. This year may be no different. Gary Brackett is cemented into the MLB position but that's where the answers stop and the questions begin. Clint Session played well and put up solid numbers most of the season but there is no guarantee that he will even return as the starter. On the other hand, Freddie Keiaho and Tyjuan Hagler are both set to become free agents. Traditional wisdom would suggest the Colts will attempt to resign these guys but then they have rarely followed traditional wisdom when it comes to linebackers. Dating back as far as Mike Peterson then David Thornton and Cato June, the Colts seem to make little effort to retain linebackers. Even the ones that have played very well for them. Don't be surprised if both Keiaho and Hagler walk, Session moves to WLB where he would become even more productive, and this years third round pick Phillip Wheeler starts at SLB.
Houston Texans
Fantasy owners got a lot of mileage out of Zach Diles before he was injured. The question now becomes will he return to the same duties and production levels next season? My initial reaction here is yes, but it certainly isn't a sure thing. Although the numbers weren't as impressive Xavier Adibi played pretty well as Diles replacement. Morlon Greenwood may not be with the club, Chaun Thompson was/is a non-factor and Kevin Bentley has proven once again that he's a career backup type. The signs all point to a starting trio of Ryans, Diles and Adibi. The problem being that after Ryans we don't know who will hold what roles. Dynasty owners with either of these young OLBs need to sit tight until the organization or next year's preseason sheds some light on the situation. The other consideration here is the steadily declining numbers of Ryans who was somewhat of a disappointment this year. I believe that nagging injuries had much to do with his finishing in the 85 tackle range this season and that he will bounce back next season when healthy. That said, now that he has some talent flanking him, the 110+ solo tackle days may be a thing of the past... Another guy to keep an eye on here is DT Tim Bulman. The third year pro quietly made some impact and was the Texans second leading sacker with 4. He could see an increased role in '09 as the club is in dire need of playmakers along the DL to help out Mario Williams.
Tennessee Titans
Once the season ends the big topic of discussion in Tennessee will be that Albert Haynesworth is a free agent. As part of last year's agreement the Titans can't put a tag on him again, meaning he is free to follow the money. The team will likely make an effort but after the performance of rookie Jason Jones in week 16, they may not be inclined to dig as deep into their pockets. Jones is clearly not Albert Haynesworth at this point but he is a similar player in many ways and has the potential to become that type of player. Dynasty owners in leagues that break out the DL positions should take a long hard look at trying to acquire this kid over the offseason.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The marriage between Mike Peterson and the Jaguars comes to an end this Sunday. We know that coach Del Rio plans to keep Darryl Smith at MLB with Justin Durant at WLB with both players remaining on the field in nickel situations. We also know that Smith is not a quality fantasy option. There are two things we don't know for certain. Will Durant step up and become the IDP leader and will Del Rio even be at the helm in '09? Both issues seem to be up in the air at this point. My money is on Durant to become the guy for fantasy owners but I wouldn't bet on Del Rio. Another situation to watch here is at safety. Brian Williams opened the season at SS. He played well while putting up some very solid and consistent numbers for us. An injury to Rashean Mathis and poor play by Will James forced the coaches to move Williams back to corner where he has remained. The question is, with everyone healthy heading into next season does he go back to safety? If the answer is yes then he will once again hold some IDP value as a quality 3rd starter... Jacksonville spent a pair of early picks on the DE position last April and thus far have gotten little return on the investment. Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey totaled just 22 tackles and 5 sacks between them. Rookies at the DE position rarely have great numbers so the jury is still out on these guys. Just look at the difference between year one (4.5 sacks) and year two (14) for Mario Williams. I'm not suggesting that either Groves or Harvey are going to blow up in '09 but if we see signs that suggest so we must not ignore them.
Kansas City Chiefs
Huge change is coming to the Chiefs this offseason. Carl Peterson is out as GM and Herm Edwards has already instructed his coaching staff to begin looking for work. There are a multitude of questions to be answered when it comes to personnel but speculation is futile until we know something about the coaching staff and defensive scheme. That said, if you are sitting on Bernard Pollard, Tamba Hali, Brandon Flowers, Derrick Johnson or even DaJuan Morgan, Demorrio Williams or Jason Babin, you should probably sit tight until we get some clarity here. Regardless of what happens at the top, this team is not going to be next year's Miami Dolphins. It's going to take a couple of years to turn this around and there will likely be a lot of IDP value here in the meantime.
Denver Broncos
If Denver beats San Diego this week they will make the playoffs but don't expect them to go far with arguably one of the worst defenses ever to qualify for the post season. With all that has transpired in Denver over the last 4 months it's impossible to know what we can expect from them in '09. Starters Nate Webster, Ebenezer Ekuban and Marlon McCree are all free agents and after seeing them tinker with a 3-4 this year, we don't even know what scheme the club will be using once all their wounded players are available. One player who has piqued my interest this year is Wesley Woodyard. While I just don't see him making an impact at linebacker, the Broncos are in dire need of a quality strong safety who can both support the run and provide an intimidation factor over the middle on pass defense. The club experimented a little with Woodyard at safety late this season and could take a long look at that option over the offseason. and into training camp.
San Francisco 49ers
Mike Singletary has the Niners playing hard and is all but certain to have the "interim" removed from his title as head coach. That could mean big change for the defense for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, Singletary is not particularly a proponent of the 3-4 scheme. He does however, believe in a highly aggressive mentality and an attacking style of play, so it's not a given they the 3-4 will be abandoned. The second reason being that even though the Niners have been using a 3-4 for a while they still lack the playmakers to make that scheme work. Parys Haralson has stepped up this season and leads the club with 8.5 sacks but former #1 pick Manny Lawson (3 sacks) has yet to live up to expectations. It will be very interesting to see where Singletary takes this defense but one thing is for sure, it won't be the status quo.
St. Louis Rams
Will Witherspoon dynasty owners need not panic over his lack of production late this season. This guy showed hit mettle by continuing to play in some capacity when most players would have been on IR. He will get healthy over the offseason. and be his usual 90+ tackle self again in '09. On the other hand, Pisa Tinoisamoa is a guy you should sell high. He set career highs in several categories including tackles but much of that was due to a lack of competition for those numbers. Expect a return to reality for him once everyone is healthy... Don't be surprised if Chris Long and Victor Adeyanju open next season as the starters at DE. Long for obvious reasons and Adeyanju because Leonard Little can't stay healthy. Little remains under contract but is collecting a big salary that could make the soon to be 35 year old a cap casualty. Adeyanju saw extensive action this year posting a mark of 36-7-2 heading into week 17. While pass rush is not a strength, he is bigger, younger and more stout versus the run than Little. If Little remains with the team he could be relegated to the status of pass rush specialist in order to reduce his workload and keep him healthy. If he is not with the team look for James Hall to serve as the utility man along the DL and see action at end in rush situations. Of course much depends on the decision to be made in the front office when it comes to the coaching situation.
Seattle Seahawks
We know that Mike Holmgren is stepping down after this season but with Jim Mora already on staff there isn't likely to be a great deal of change with the defensive scheme. The most interesting situations to watch with the Seahawks are at DE and safety. Safety because I believe this has been a need position for a long time with this club. Neither Brian Russell nor Deon Grant are more than average players and the Seahawks need playmakers in a secondary that has recorded just 8 interceptions all season, with 4 of those belonging to Josh Wilson. Seattle signed both of these guys a couple of years back thinking they were adding playmakers but that hasn't been the case. It will be interesting to see if the Seattle brain trust agrees with me on this one. The DE situation is one to watch since Darryl Tapp has really stepped up his game of late. In the last 8 games Tapp has gone 26-2-4.5 with 3 forced fumbles. You might remember that he was replaced by rookie first round pick Lawrence Jackson early in the year. Jackson has been somewhat disappointing but as I mentioned before, it's hard to judge a DE on his performance as a rookie. When Patrick Kerney returns next season he will be one starter and the battle between Jackson and Tapp should be a good one. The early money is on Tapp... Tackle Rocky Bernard and Linebacker Leroy Hill are both free agents this offseason. Both (especially Bernard) have stepped up big for the club and could be in demand. I will be surprised if Seattle doesn't find a way to keep them both.
New York Giants
The two big IDP topics with the Giants heading to next season will be what do the coaches do at DE when Osi Umenyiora returns, and will Kenny Phillips finally land an every down role in his second season? With a mark of 34-14-8.5 in 14 starts thus far, Mathias Kiwanuka has done an excellent job for both the Giants and IDP owners this season. Umenyiora however, is a stud and the established starter when healthy. I would love to tell all you dynasty owners that Kiwanuka will pick up right where he left off but reality is that he may well end up back at SLB next season. The Phillips situation will likely get some clarification early since James Butler is going to be a free agent. If the club doesn't pursue him (as I expect they wouldn't) it opens the door for Phillips to claim a starting job. You may remember back to the preseason EOTG when I talked about how Tom Coughlin doesn't like rookies and rarely will start one. That has held true throughout this season but Phillips has played well and proven himself. He's no longer a rookie and Coughlin will be hard pressed to keep him on the sideline in any situation come next year.
Washington Redskins
If you have been keeping up with late season happenings and/or listening to the IDP podcast, you are aware of the situation at linebacker in Washington. Rocky McIntosh was benched a couple of weeks back and has seen limited action in the past couple of games. It's hard to say if this is a permanent situation but signs point toward that being the case. Those signs being a degenerative knee condition that McIntosh has been dealing with for a couple of years, and the quality play of H.B. Blades. Blades saw a lot of action at SLB this season for an injured Marcus Washington but is actually better suited for the WLB or MLB positions. Washington and London Fletcher are both in the twilight of their careers but remain under contract for '09 and are likely to be with the club. Blades has a lot of potential and has been productive in the past when given an opportunity to play at a productive position. If he ends up as the starter on the weak side in '09 he should be a quality LB3 with long term upside.
Philadelphia Eagles
There may be a changing of the guard at FS in Philly this offseason. Brian Dawkins contends that he can still play at a high level but the soon to be 36 year old is clearly not the playmaker he once was. Factor in that he is a free agent at seasons end and that the club drafted Quintin Demps in April. The writing seems to be on the wall for Dawkins. With the emergence of Quintin Mikell, Akeem Jordan and Stuart Bradley as tackle mongers, Demps will need to make his mark in the big play columns if he is to be a fantasy factor. That said, in a Jim Johnson scheme the FS has a lot of opportunity to do just that... The Eagle "line change" philosophy along the DL is well documented but don't be surprised if Darren Howard has an expanded role next season. As a backup/rotational/rush guy this year Howard has quietly tied Trent Cole for the team lead at 9 sacks. He's a very capable every down end who seems to finally be winning the favor of the defensive coaches.
Dallas Cowboys
Much remains up in the air with the Cowboys. Heading into week 17 we aren't even certain that Wade Phillips will be the head coach next season. Comments by Jerry Jones seem to suggest he will be but Jones tends to speak with a forked tongue at times, or at the least has a tendency to change his mind the moment something doesn't go the way he expects. All that aside, the Cowboys have some decisions to make this offseason. Did Zach Thomas make enough of an impact to bring him back? If he did is that worth doing at the expense of loosing both Kevin Burnett and Bobby Carpenter? All three of these linebackers are headed to free agency and it's a safe bet that neither Burnett or Carpenter will be back if they don't have a starting role. Both are good enough to start for several teams and will likely be offered starters money elsewhere. Remember that Parcells wanted Carpenter instead of Ayodele as part of the Anthony Fasano trade. It time for the Cowboys to use these guys or lose them.
Miami Dolphins
Miami made a miraculous turnaround this year but don't for a second think that Parcells is finished molding this team's personnel. Yeremiah Bell has been a great surprise both for Miami and Fantasy owners but he is scheduled to become a free agent. Parcells really likes Bell so he will likely be going nowhere. The same can't be said for fellow free agent to be Channing Crowder who is not a Parcells favorite. Being a defense first guy, look for the Tuna to give most of his attention to that side of the ball this offseason. They are pretty strong up front but might go after a young OLB to compete with Matt Roth, and are almost certain to ad/upgrade at ILB. Don't be surprised if Bobby Carpenter is starting here next season.
New England Patriots
Several of the IDP staff writers have been all over the development of Gary Guyton as the probable starter at ILB next season. I fully agree with that assumption but am not overly excited about his box score potential. Jerod Mayo will be the guy to have here and the only other New England player that will be high on my draft list is Brandon Meriweather. He's not a big guy but since the injury to Rodney Harrison, has proven himself to be a very capable SS in a system that gives him a great deal of opportunity. For several years Harrison was the only IDP worth owning from this team. His injury, age and soon to be free agent status pretty much spells end of career for Harrison who is one of the best SS ever to play the game in my opinion. Meriweather appears capable and in position to be the present and future of the position and a solid long term IDP option for us.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have actually played respectable defense much of this season but they have some serious needs to be addressed this offseason. The most glaring need being someone to rush the passer. Antwan Odom was supposed to be that guy but his injury woes and spotty play followed him from Tennessee. Robert Geathers had one great season with double digit sacks but that was a couple of years ago and has faded from memory. No team in the league has gotten to the passed fewer times than the Bengals this season... The experiment of Dhani Jones at MLB was not a total failure. While he is clearly not the long term answer, Jones has played well for an average player at a new position. Well enough in fact that his performance may allow the club to concentrate their efforts on positions of more immediate need. God knows there are plenty of those. One guy to keep an eye on here is Abdul Hodge. You may remember a couple of years back when Hodge played well enough to stir speculation that he could push Nick Barnett out of the Packers MLB job. Injuries derailed his career with the Packers and eventually caused his release. He continues to struggle at staying healthy and ended up on the Bengals IR this year after signing around mid season. If he can somehow get and stay healthy, Hodge has the talent to make some noise.
Cleveland Browns
There are a couple of very important things to watch with the Browns this offseason. The most important obviously being the coaching situation and what defensive scheme the projected new staff brings. The other being that run stuffing ILB Andra Davis is headed to free agency. For the last couple of years Leon Williams has replaced Davis in passing situations which has in effect ruined the box score production of both players. It will be very interesting to see if Davis fits with the plans of the new coaching staff and/or is Williams lands a full time role. Davis would be a great fit with Parcells/Sporano in Miami as he is just what that scheme looks for at the strong ILB position.
Green Bay Packers
I know the Packers only move Charles Woodson to safety for a couple of games due to injuries but that was enough to stir the speculation that he could be moved there on a permanent basis at some point in the relatively near future. It's not at all uncommon for corners to shift inside and add years to their careers at safety. Rod Woodson is the first example that comes to mind. With the emergence of Tramon Williams as a solid cover corner, could Woodson even be considered for safety as soon as 2009? The club has a couple of young guys in Bigby and Rouse who have performed pretty well but the Packers coaching staff has to be thinking about the big play potential that would exist with Collins and Woodson back there, not to mention the bonus of getting Williams on the field full time. This trio has accounted for 17 interceptions between them this year. It's hard to overlook that possibility... With all the injuries at DE this year Mike Montgomery has become a starter not only for the Packers but a lot of fantasy owners as well. More importantly he is headed to the free agent market and has had an opportunity to show other clubs what he can do. Cullen Jenkins will be back for next year so the Packers may not make too much effort to keep Montgomery. If you are sitting on him in a dynasty league, don't throw him back too quickly. There are a lot of teams out there in need of a starting DE.
Minnesota Vikings
Darren Sharper has been one of the most productive big play safeties to ever play the game. He'll be 34 next season and while he probably has a couple of years left, the question is will those years be in Minnesota? Sharper's contract is up at the end of the season and his lone interception this year marks a career low in production. The Vikings have a young gun waiting in the wings in second round pick Tyrell Johnson who gained a lot of experience early this year when Madieu Williams was out. If Sharper wants to come back it will have to be at a bargain price and potentially as a backup... Look for the Vikings to pursue another stud DE to book end Jared Allen.
Chicago Bears
Mike Brown is injured yet again and will be a free agent after the season. The Bears love this guy who is a team captain this year, but it's a business and the fact that they drafted Craig Steltz last year is a sign that they may be preparing to move on.
Detroit Lions
The Lions will have a new direction next season, or at least they hope to. There is a ton of work to be done here and the player turnover will undoubtedly be steep. That said, no team has ever replaced all 53 players on a team and that's one record even the Lions won't achieve. This club has made some horrible personnel decisions over the years but they are not completely devoid of young defensive talent. No one is going to expect this club to make the playoffs next year so look for the new staff to play these young guys and at least find out what they have. Paris Lenon is a free agent who probably won't be back. That means Jordon Dizon is going to get his shot. Another player I expect them to take a very long look at is DE Cliff Avril who is currently second on the team with 4 sacks. When a team is 0-16 there should be a lot of new faces in the lineup the following year. I expect these two guys to be among them and possibly emerge as cornerstones for the rebuilding process.
We are going to take a little break and recover from this year's toils but we'll be back to ramp up the coverage when NFL draft time rolls around. Have a great offseason. and we hope to see you back in April. Never forget that Championships are won in the offseason.!
