Week 19 Rushing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[ARI] [BAL] [CAR] [NYG] [PHI] [PIT] [SD] [TEN]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Carolina Panthers Rushing Offense vs Arizona Cardinals Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

Carolina last hosted the Cardinals on October 26th, 2008, and they could only manage 3 points during the first half, going to the locker room down 10-3. However, they scored 21 points during the 3rd quarter and iced the game at 9:09 in the 4th with a John Kasay field goal to prevail 27-23. DeAngelo Williams led the team with an explosive 17/108/1 rushing (2/15/0 receiving), while understudy Jonathan Stewart ground out a mere 8/10/0 rushing and 1/0/0 receiving. Given how Williams propelled his team into the playoffs during December, we expect to see him headline again in this home playoff contest.

In the season finale at New Orleans, Williams and Stewart combined for 42/234/1, with 25/178/0 rushing for Williams and 15/56/1 rushing flowing to Stewart. Williams has piled up 61/374/5 rushing with 3/3/0 receiving over the final 3 games of regular season (2nd best fantasy RB in that time frame according to points per game) while Stewart has chipped in 42/137/2 rushing and 2/28/0 receiving (34th ranked fantasy RB). The two form one of the most potent RB tandems in the playoffs.

The Cardinals held off Atlanta during the wild-card round of the playoffs, limiting their duo of backs to 24/60/1 rushing last week, a 2.5 yards per carry average. It was an unexpectedly solid performance from a unit that coughed up 509 rushing yards in the final 3 games of 2008. After regular season was over, Arizona ranked 16th in the NFL averaging 110.3 rushing yards allowed per game, with 13 rushing TDs given up through 16 games.

The Cardinals' D was "up" last week in their home playoff game, but they face another explosive pair of backs in Carolina this week. We'll see how "real" their 2nd-season improvement is after this game - before the fact, this looks like a good matchup for Williams and Stewart.

Weather: Bank of America Stadium expects a high of 52F on Saturday, with a low of 35F - there is a 40% chance of precipitation forecast. Considering this game kicks off at 8:15 PM, precipitation could be rain/sleet/snow or a mix of all three as the temperature will decline down near to freezing by the end of the game. If the weather is inclement at game time, footing, ball-handling, visibility and the passing/kicking games could be adversely affected (especially if the winds are strong).

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 19 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

New York Giants Rushing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

These teams split their regular season series, with a 36-31 victory recorded by New York on November 9th; Philly took their revenge at New York on December 7th with a 6 point victory, 20-14. During the first game, New York ran the ball at will, gaining 45/219/2 on the ground as a team, led by Brandon Jacobs' 22/126/2 rushing - Derrick Ward put up 17/53/0 rushing and 3/27/0 receiving in the #2 role. One month later, the Eagles controlled New York's stable, holding them to 24/88/0 as a team (led by Jacobs' 10/52/0 rushing - Ward managed 8/39/0 rushing and 1/2/0 receiving that day).

Brandon Jacobs missed 2 of the final 3 games for New York while nursing his sore left knee - he led all fantasy players in points-per-game during that time span, though, due to his outstanding 24/87/3 rushing and 1/5/0 receiving in the game that he did play vs. Carolina. He didn't practice during the bye week - stay tuned to see how much he can participate late in the week leading up to this divisional grudge-match. Derrick Ward posted 44/356/0 rushing and 4/11/0 receiving during the final 3 games - he is a solid plan "B", but the team would prefer to use their usual 3-back attack (Jacobs, Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw) if at all possible.

The Eagles won the game last week, but it wasn't due to controlling the Vikings' running backs - Adrian Peterson (20/83/2 rushing) and Chester Taylor (12/48/0 rushing and 5/36/0 receiving) combined to provide the foundation for 34/148/2 rushing as a team vs. the Eagles. Philly ended the regular season ranked 4th in the NFL averaging 92.3 yards allowed per game in this phase, with just 7 rushing TDs allowed. They averaged 88.6 rushing yards allowed per game to close out December (the final 3 games of the year). However, the team wasn't as dominant as usual at Minnesota last week.

The Giants' backs have enjoyed one outstanding game vs. Philly this year, so they know they can do well vs. the Eagles (and the team was vulnerable to Minnesota last week). However, the Eagles know they can control the Giants as well, based on the 2nd contest. On balance, we give the nod to the home team in this matchup with a slight edge flowing to New York if Jacobs is back near to 100%. If Jacobs has to exit the game early or can't go, then this is an even matchup in our book.

Weather: Giants' Stadium expects a high of 31F on Sunday, with a low of 21F later that evening - there is only a 10% chance for precipitation, so hopefully the field won't be covered in snow on Sunday. However, this venue is noted for high, swirling winds during the winter - it would be no surprise to see the passing and kicking games adversely affected even in the absence of stormy weather.

Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Offense vs San Diego Chargers Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

The Steelers last clashed with the Chargers on November 16th - Willie Parker was in top form that day, gaining 25/115/0 on the ground with 1/4/0 receiving - Gary Russell was 2nd on the team that day, with 2/10/0 rushing, while Mewelde Moore made his presence felt as a receiver out of the backfield - 1/-1/0 rushing but 5/33/0 receiving.

To close out regular season, Parker (23/116/1) cranked up his motor and led the Steelers to 35/176/3 in the course of drubbing Cleveland 31-0. Gary Russell also found the end zone, with 4/21/1; Mewelde Moore provided a change of pace with 4/23/0 rushing and 1/10/0 receiving, and Byron Leftwich also punched in a TD (1/8/1). Over the final 3 weeks of regular season, Parker accounted for 55/192/1 rushing and 3/11/0 receiving; Moore chipped in with 14/67/0 rushing and 3/30/0 receiving; and Russell posted 5/22/1 rushing. Entering the playoffs, Parker is the lead back, Moore is the change-of-pace option and Russell handles short-yardage duty.

The Chargers bested Indianapolis 23-17 in OT last week, limiting the lowly Colts' backs to 22/64/1 rushing as a team. In the 3 contests prior to the wild card round, the Chargers surrendered 303 rushing yards (101 per game) - they've kept close to their season mark of 102.6 rushing yards allowed per game on average (with 11 rushing TDs handed out over 16 games).

The Chargers kept the bottom-of-the-barrel Colts suppressed last week, but in Heinz Field they face a resurgent Pittsburgh attack that moved the ball well against San Diego the last time these teams met. It looks like the Steelers have an edge over the visiting Chargers on Sunday.

Weather: Heinz Field expects a high of 23F with a low of 18F on Sunday - there is a 30% chance of precipitation around game time. At this time of year, precipitation would almost certainly be sleet and/or snow - if the weather is stormy at game time, all phases of the game will be adversely affected as footing, ball-handling, and visibility will be more challenging than usual. If the winds are high, the passing and kicking games will also be even more difficult than usual - this venue is noted for swirling, unpredictable winds. A winter storm would probably tend to favor the home-town Steelers rather than the Chargers, the latter being used to the mild weather of Southern California.

Arizona Cardinals Rushing Offense at Carolina Panthers Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Anquan Boldin led the Cardinals in rushing the last time they faced the Panthers (week 8 of regular season, on October 26th), with 1/30/0 to his credit. Edgerrin James was splitting time with Tim Hightower at that point, with 7/17/0 rushing to his credit, while Hightower eked out 6/3/1 - the Hightower TD run was the highlight of the Cardinals' RB stable's unimpressive performance the last time Carolina hosted Arizona.

Edgerrin James played well when handed the ball last week, providing his team with manageable down-and-distance situations during several long drives. He ended the day with 82 yards on offense (16/73/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving) while Tim Hightower returned to his backup/short-yardage role (6/23/1 rushing last week). J.J. Arrington generated -5 yards from scrimmage last week (1/-2/0 rushing and 1/-3/0 receiving). James has compiled 30/173/0 rushing (5.7 yards per carry on average) and 2/15/0 receiving since returning to the featured-back role during the season finale.

The Panthers earned their first-round bye when they held off the hard-charging Saints 33-31 during week 17 - the Saints were in a chase position most of the game and didn't run the ball often (11/50/0 as a team). In the closing weeks of 2008, Carolina was pretty porous for opposing rushers, allowing 472 yards in their last 3 games (157.3 per contest) - they ended up ranked 20th in the NFL vs. the run last year, averaging 119.5 rushing yards allowed per game, with 14 rushing TDs given away.

The Cardinals appear to have re-discovered a viable rushing attack with Edgerrin James as the headliner. However, he struggled the last time Arizona faced the Panthers - we'll see if he can do better the second time around the block against this suspect defensive front. On balance, this looks like a pretty even matchup from where we're sitting.

Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Offense at New York Giants Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

These teams split their regular season series, with a 36-31 victory recorded by New York on November 9th; Philly took their revenge at New York on December 7th with a 6 point victory, 20-14. During the first game, Brian Westbrook was held to 13/26/0 rushing (3/33/0 receiving) while Donovan McNabb actually led the team in rushing (3/35/0) - all told, Philly gained 21/106/1 that day (DeSean Jackson scored the rushing TD with 3/24/1 rushing). However, during the 2nd contest Westbrook broke loose for 33/131/1 rushing (the team posted 42/140/1 rushing), and he also led the team with 6/72/1 receiving - he scored both of Philly's TDs that day. Brian Westbrook had a hard time cracking the Vikings' hard-nosed defensive front on the ground (20/38/0 rushing, a 1.9 yards per carry average), but he found success as a receiver out of the backfield busting a 71 yard pass for a TD in the 4th quarter and ended up with 3/83/1 to lead the team receiving. Correll Buckhalter had 2/27/0 rushing but ended up playing FB for a lot of the game as their usual blocking back, Dan Klecko, suffered a strained shoulder vs. the Vikings. Though the Eagles didn't gain much yardage (67 yards rushing vs. Minnesota), coach Andy Reid intends to stick with the balanced attack going forward: "We tried to keep it as balanced as we could - This was a game where everything didn't work. But it was important that you kept focus on that next play, to try to make it work, and I thought that was what the guys did," Reid said on Tuesday. Over the final 3 weeks of 2008, Westbrook posted only 41/148/0 rushing and 11/97/0 receiving - he's been hampered by nicks and dings to his ankles and knees, but keeps playing through the pain.

The Giants' rush D is very solid, averaging 95.8 yards allowed per game (9th in the NFL), with 14 rushing scores surrendered over 16 games. They held Adrian Peterson in the season finale to one TD (21/103/1 rushing), while holding the Vikings to 27/110/1 - they didn't shut down the Vikings, but they weren't trampled by the NFL's leading rusher, either. To close the regular season, the Giants averaged 122.6 rushing yards allowed per game over the final 3 contests. The Giants slipped a notch during December, as you can see.

The Giants have home field advantage at their back and a hated divisional rival in front of them this week to stir their fervor - Westbrook and company got the job done in week 14 but they know it won't be easy to repeat that performance at Giants' Stadium during January. This looks like an even matchup with neither side holding an edge over the other.

Baltimore Ravens Rushing Offense at Tennessee Titans Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

The Ravens' tandem of Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain gained a lot of ground running the ball vs. the Titans' 6th-ranked rush D during week 5, helping the Ravens post 38/132/1 as a team (McGahee was less impressive with 22/64/0 (a 2.9 yards per carry average)and 1/2/0 receiving; McClain gained a lot of ground with 11/51/1 rushing (a 4.6 yards per carry average) and 2/12/0 receiving). Unfortunately for the Ravens, their efforts went for naught when Kerry Collins led a late comeback win (13-10 Tennessee).

The same pair of backs led the Ravens' offensive effort last week (Ray Rice suited up but did not play due to his continuing problems with an injured calf) - Le'Ron McClain pounded the Dolphins for 19/75/1 rushing, while Willis McGahee contributed 7/62/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving in his change-of-pace role. Joe Flacco (5/8/1), Lorenzo Neal (1/4/0 rushing with 1/8/0 receiving) and Troy Smith (1/2/0) all got in the act last week, helping the team to 33/151/2 rushing in the 27-9 destruction of Miami. Rice may see some touches this week vs. Tennessee, according to head coach John Harbaugh: "We just didn't feel as the game was going on that we wanted to put him in," Harbaugh said on Tuesday. "Not that we couldn't have. He was ready to play, just the way the game went. (But) Ray is getting healthier, and he looked good toward the end of last week and we expect him to do well."

The Titans rested their best players in week 17 vs. Indianapolis, and as a result they gave up 27/121/0 rushing to the Colts' backups. However, the team left regular season ranked 6th in the NFL averaging 93.9 rushing yards allowed per game, with 12 rushing scores given up through 16 games. It isn't easy to run the ball on this defense, especially when Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch are on the field. However, Haynesworth (knee injury) and Vanden Bosch (groin injury) are both attempting to come back from injuries that sidelined them for multiple games during December, and neither practiced fully during the bye week - the Titans' backup defensive linemen are quality players, too, but the defense is at its best with Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch on the field. Keep an eye on their progress during practices later this week if you are invested in the Ravens' rushing attack.

McClain and McGahee know they can move the ball against the Titans, and Rice may be back on the menu, too, but at LP Field in a playoff atmosphere, they also know it won't be easy. Advantage, Tennessee.

Weather: LP Field expects a high of 43F with a low of 26F on Saturday, and there is a 30% chance of rain/sleet/snow forecast. If the weather is inclement at game time, footing, ball-handling, visibility and the passing/kicking games could be adversely affected (especially if the winds are strong).

San Diego Chargers Rushing Offense at Pittsburgh Steelers Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson led the Chargers in rushing (18/57/1) and receiving (3/45/0) the last time San Diego took on Pittsburgh in Heinz Field (during week 11 of regular season) - his TD was the only TD scored by either team that day. Unfortunately, as of midweek it appears that Tomlinson's groin injury is too severe for him to take part in the rematch this weekend - Darren Sproles, Tomlinson's backup, had 1/0/0 rushing and 1/9/0 receiving on November 16th. Tomlinson refused to confirm or deny reports that he has a torn tendon in his groin, but he indicated after his shortened appearance vs. Indianapolis that he is "...worried about my health. I'm very concerned...It's obvious that I couldn't play. If I could have played, I would have been in there."

Darren Sproles led San Diego in rushing last week, with a very respectable 22/105/2 rushing (5/45/0 receiving) after Tomlinson ran for 5/25/1 to open the game. All told, San Diego had 33/167/3 rushing vs. Indianapolis' 24th-ranked rush D. Sproles had compiled 16/118/1 rushing and 9/74/2 receiving in the closing 3 weeks of regular season - he's a fine plan "B" for the Chargers most of the time. Michael Bennett, who played for Tampa Bay earlier in 2008 before landing with San Diego late in the regular season, posted 4/24/0 rushing and 1/7/0 receiving for the Bolts last week, and is expected to see some more action for San Diego going forward into the playoffs. "We ran the same offense [as San Diego's] in Minnesota and Kansas City," Bennett said of two of his previous NFL stops. "I know the offense and terminology. And my body is fresh, I didn't carry the ball much the past two years."

However, this week Sproles and Bennett will face the tough-as-nails Pittsburgh defensive front, who have averaged 80.3 rushing yards allowed per game during regular season (2nd best in the NFL) and only allowed 7 rushing TDs over 16 games (tied for 2nd in the NFL). As Sproles is also a good pass receiver, it's worth noting that the Steelers' defenders were also 1st in the NFL in passing yards allowed during regular season (156.9 per game on average) and they were tied for 2nd-least passing TDs given up with 12 allowed. Cleveland managed 29/106/0 rushing in the season finale (they lost 31-0 to Pittsburgh): Pittsburgh gave up 335 rushing yards in their final 3 games (111.6 per game on average).

Sproles is a good back, with a savvy vet in Bennett behind him, but they face a very rough matchup this week in Heinz Field. We'll see how much Sproles has left in the tank after being "packed in ice" following the game vs. Indianapolis - coach Turner joked that they wouldn't take him out of the ice until Friday of this week before turning serious and describing Sproles as "exhausted" after carrying a big load on offense and in the return game for San Diego during the wild-card round.

Tennessee Titans Rushing Offense vs Baltimore Ravens Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Neither Chris Johnson (18/44/0 rushing with 2/4/0 receiving) nor LenDale White (3/4/0 rushing with 1/0/0 receiving) could make a dent in the Ravens' defensive front back in week 5 - of course, very few backs found pay dirt vs. Baltimore during the regular season, when they gave up a mere 4 rushing TDs over 16 contests while ranking 3rd vs. opposing rushers, who averaged 81.4 rushing yards gained per contest.

Speaking of Baltimore, their defensive front played up to expectations vs. Miami in the wild-card round of the playoffs, with a mere 21/52/0 handed over to the many-headed Miami attack (a 2.5 yards-per-carry average). Baltimore averaged just a shade over 100 rushing yards allowed per game to close out December (over the last 3 games), but they brought their "A" game to bear on Miami last week. Expect more of the same this week.

Johnson enters this contest well-rested; he didn't play vs. Indianapolis during their meaningless week 17 contest - he's had 2 weeks of rest prior to this home game. White is essentially in the same boat after a cameo appearance during week 17 (7/25/0 rushing). The duo accounted for over 2000 yards rushing last season (251/1228/9 rushing for Johnson; 200/773/15 rushing for White) - they are a better version of the running-back-by-a-duo system than Miami the one fields.

The Ravens' defense has stuffed a lot of running backs this year - Johnson and White need to bring their best effort to bear this week if Tennessee is to advance. Advantage, Baltimore.