Week 18 Rushing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[ARI] [ATL] [BAL] [IND] [MIA] [MIN] [PHI] [SD]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Arizona Cardinals Rushing Offense vs Atlanta Falcons Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

The Cardinals went back to plan "A" last week, handing Edgerrin James the ball -lo-and-behold, it worked. James flashed his talents last week, carving up Seattle's mediocre defensive front for 14/100/0 rushing and added 1/6/0 receiving - J.J. Arrington had 1/9/0 rushing and 2/18/0 receiving to his credit and Tim Hightower eked out 3/3/1 in a limited role. "This is when football starts," Edgerrin James said after the contest. "Everything is serious...You've got to practice hard. You've got to practice with a purpose. One mistake can be the deciding factor..."Nobody wants to go home. When it comes to this time of the year, nobody is going to mind staying out longer, doing what it takes. We're three games away from Tampa. To play in the Super Bowl, that would be the biggest thing ever." We'll see if James can bring his "A" game to the dance vs. Atlanta - the Cardinal's offense could really use an effective running game after ending regular season ranked 31st in the NFL with a 3.5 yards per carry average, and only 73.6 rushing yards per game on average (dead last in the NFL).

The Falcons barely survived Steven Jackson's onslaught last week (30/161/2 rushing for Jackson; 37/202/2 rushing for the Rams as a team), and they have coughed up 456 yards rushing over their last 3 contests. In short, they look like the 25th-ranked rush defense in the league, averaging 127.5 yards allowed per game, with 17 rushing TDs given up to date.

James and the Cardinals have underwhelmed us for most of the season, but James showed a spark last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons laid down for the Rams in this phase of the game last week, and they have been suspect all year long. It looks like James has a good shot at maintaining his momentum at home this week.

Weather: Inside University of Phoenix Stadium, the weather shouldn't be a big factor in this matchup. If the weather looks threatening near game time, the roof will be closed. If it is clear and cool, then the roof will be open - either way, expect good conditions for this playoff contest.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 18 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Atlanta Falcons Rushing Offense at Arizona Cardinals Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

Michael Turner put the Falcons' offense on his back and carried them home during the season finale, posting 25/208/1 rushing vs. the Rams. Jerious Norwood also had an excellent tune-up for the playoffs, with 3/56/2 rushing and 1/22/0 receiving - all told, the Falcons ran for 32/263/3 last week. Over the last 3 weeks, Turner has amassed 76/430/3 rushing and 2/30/0 receiving, while Norwood has gained 13/59/2 rushing and 5/57/1 receiving - the Falcons come into the playoffs red hot.

The Cardinals' rush D has been in the middle of the NFL flock during regular season, averaging 110.3 yards allowed per game (16th in the league), while handing over 13 rushing TDs during 16 games. Last week, they held Seattle's anemic stable to 28/87/1 rushing - however, they have coughed up a total of 509 yards rushing during the last 3 weeks, including 42/183/2 to New England 2 weeks ago and 44/239/0 to Minnesota 3 weeks ago. The defensive front looks vulnerable as of the wild card round, despite their rebound against a suspect Seattle squad last week.

Turner and Norwood have a head of steam up entering this game, while the Cardinals' unit recovered some of their balance last week but have been less-than-impressive during the stretch run into the playoffs. Advantage, Atlanta.

San Diego Chargers Rushing Offense vs Indianapolis Colts Rushing Defense (Good Matchup)

LaDainian Tomlinson didn't have too much trouble moving the ball against the Colts' suspect defensive front during week 12 (November 23rd), gaining 21/84/0 rushing and 3/30/0 receiving, while his side-kick Darren Sproles gained 2/21/0 rushing and 2/13/0 receiving against the Colts. All told, the Chargers rushed for 25/120/0 against Indianapolis that day (a 4.8 yards per carry average).

Last week, Tomlinson exploded all over Denver's weak defense, posting 14/96/3 rushing in his best fantasy performance of the season. Darren Sproles has earned a lot of touches of late, and had 14/115/1 rushing with 2/17/1 receiving last week (he's posted 16/118/1 rushing and 9/74/2 receiving over the last 3 weeks), while Jacob Hester also got in the end zone (8/37/1 rushing with 2/19/0 receiving). All pistons are firing for the Chargers' rushing attack entering their home playoff stand.

The Colts' rush D hasn't been very stout to date, averaging 122.9 yards allowed per game, with 18 rushing TDs given up over 16 contests. During the past 3 weeks, they've handed over just 278 rushing yards though (92.6 per game), but the Titans didn't really try during week 17 (18/83/0 rushing as a team with Chris Johnson out of the game to rest up for the playoffs), which skews the recent average artificially low. Most weeks, it is comparatively easy to run the ball against the Colts, though they have dug in their heels somewhat to close out the year.

Tomlinson and Sproles have rolled in the closing weeks of 2008, and they have a good shot at maintaining the momentum this week against the suspect Colts.

Weather: Qualcomm Stadium expects a high of 62F with a low of 48F and a 10% chance of rain on Sunday - weather conditions shouldn't play much of a role in this contest as long as the forecast holds up. This game is slated for a 8 PM ET start, so temperatures will be cooling off as the game progresses - it should be a very pleasant evening to play (and watch) football.

Baltimore Ravens Rushing Offense at Miami Dolphins Rushing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

These teams faced off once during the 2008 regular season (October 19th, week 7), with a 27-13 result in favor of the Ravens. Willis McGahee had one of his best games of the year down in Miami (he's a former Hurricane, remember, and was actually born in Miami as well) - he posted one of his 3 100+ yards rushing efforts that day (19/105/1) and also grabbed 2 receptions for 47 yards during the contest. Le'Ron McClain was second fiddle in Miami, with 6/17/0 rushing and 3/10/0 receiving, while Ray Rice also chipped in quite a bit with 7/13/0 rushing and 2/46/0 receiving. The Ravens' backs were a nightmare for the Miami defense, piling up 35/140/1 rushing and 7/103/0 receiving as a unit back in week 7.

Over the last 3 weeks, Le'Ron McClain has been taking the lead for the Ravens in this phase (70/296/3 rushing, with 1/4/0 receiving), while Willis McGahee has contributed 18/150/2 rushing and 7/61/0 receiving. Ray Rice has missed 3 games due to a shin contusion on his left leg, but the team hopes to have him back in the lineup for the wild-card round. McGahee and McClain have been very effective in his absence, though, so the Ravens can be confident in a strong attack whether or not Rice is in the mix. Last week, McClain led the team in rushing (25/70/2) vs. Jacksonville, while McGahee posted 4/24/1 rushing and 2/25/0 receiving. All told, the Ravens rushed for 34/127/3 during the contest.

The Dolphins averaged 101.3 rushing yards allowed per game during regular season (10th in the NFL), with 11 rushing TDs allowed over 16 contests. However, they've coughed up 372 rushing yards during the last 3 weeks, with 21/80/1 handed over to the Jets last week (K.C. piled up 21/180/2 vs. the Dolphins 2 weeks ago). Miami's defensive front has yo-yoed between extremes in recent weeks.

The Ravens' rushing attack is steady and sure week in and week out (they average a respectable 4.0 yards per carry this season), and they did well against the Dolphins the last time the teams faced off. In addition, given Miami's up and down performance during December, this looks like a fairly even matchup from where we're sitting.

Weather: The forecast for Dolphin Stadium calls for a high of 76F with a low of 62F and a 10% chance for rain - weather conditions shouldn't have a big impact on the outcome of this game if the weather service's predictions are correct.

Indianapolis Colts Rushing Offense at San Diego Chargers Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

The Colts squeaked past the Chargers 23-20 the last time they visited Qualcomm Stadium, on November 23rd (week 12). Joseph Addai (16/70/0 rushing and 7/31/0 receiving) edged past 100 yards combined during the contest, while Dominic Rhodes contributed 7/21/0 rushing and 5/21/1 receiving during the game. The two backs were effective (but not spectacular) moving the ball vs. San Diego's defensive front that day.

Joseph Addai remembered how to find the end zone during the season finale, posting 1/4/0 rushing and 2/55/1 receiving in an abbreviated appearance vs. Tennessee while Dominic Rhodes rested his sore chest/ribs. During the closing weeks of regular season (15-17), Rhodes was the 6th best fantasy RB in the land (points per game) with 34/113/2 rushing and 10/92/1 receiving - Addai checked in at 23rd with just the few touches he saw last week. He's been nursing a sore shoulder and has seen limited action in order to preserve him for the playoffs.

The San Diego rush D was a so-so unit during 2008, averaging 102.6 rushing yards per game (11th in the NFL), with 11 rushing TDs handed over during 16 contests. Over the final 3 weeks of regular season, San Diego handed over 303 rushing yards (101 per game on average), with 10/90/2 given up to Denver's last-gasp RB Tatum Bell and Jay Cutler during week 17. The Chargers field a decent, but not overwhelming, rush D entering the wild card round of the playoffs.

The Colts' rushing attack is worst in the league when it comes to yards per carry (3.4 yards on average), and had the 2nd-least average rushing yards per game last year (79.6 per contest). San Diego's defense is tough enough to be a problem for the Colts' rushing attack.

Minnesota Vikings Rushing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor combined for over 2,000 yards rushing last season - Peterson was #1 in the NFL with 363 rushes for 1760 yards (he scored 10 rushing TDs), while Taylor added 101/399/4 rushing with 45/399/2 receiving to the mix (Peterson caught 21/125/0 this past year). Together, they form one of the most potent RB tandems in the NFL. Peterson ground out 21/103/1 rushing vs. the Giants, while Taylor posted 4/10/0 rushing and 1/19/0 receiving in his change of pace role last week.

The Eagles' rush D has been very stubborn during December, with 266 yards given up over the last 3 weeks (88.6 rushing yards allowed per game), and they held Dallas to 19/87/0 in their must-win game last week (a 44-6 victory for Philadelphia). At the end of regular season, the Eagles were 4th in the NFL averaging 92.3 rushing yards allowed per game, with just 7 rushing TDs handed over during 16 regular-season contests.

Two top-tier units clash in this game and even with the home-field advantage flowing to Minnesota, this looks like a tough matchup even for the outstanding Vikings RBs.

Weather: Inside the Metrodome, weather won't play a role in this contest.

Philadelphia Eagles Rushing Offense at Minnesota Vikings Rushing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Last week, it was Correll Buckhalter's turn to headline the Eagles' offense, and he did so with flare, gaining 10/63/0 rushing and 3/59/1 receiving - Brian Westbrook made his presence felt with 13/50/0 rushing and 2/12/0 receiving as the Eagles trounced the Cowboys 44-6 (Philly put up 36/137/1 as a team, with the TD ran in by Donovan McNabb (3/4/1)). Over the past 3 weeks, Buckhalter has gained 17/120/0 rushing and 5/77/1 receiving, while Westbrook compiled 41/148/0 rushing and 11/97/0 receiving - the team relies on Westbrook heavily, but Buckhalter can pitch in when necessary, as you can see.

The Vikings field the NFL's top-ranked rush D in terms of yards allowed per game (76.9 on average), with 10 rushing TDs given up to date. Over the past 3 weeks, Minnesota has grudgingly handed over 276 rushing yards (92 per game), with 30/135/0 allotted to the Giants in week 17. They almost always hold teams under 100 yards rushing this season. although Pat Williams' broken shoulder was a hit to the interior of the line in December.

Westbrook and Buckhalter are dangerous backs, but the Vikings play shut-down rush D and they have home field advantage this week. This matchup is a tough assignment (at best) for any pair of backs in the NFL.

Weather: Inside the Metrodome, weather won't play a role in this contest.

Miami Dolphins Rushing Offense vs Baltimore Ravens Rushing Defense (Bad Matchup)

During week 7 of the regular season, Miami lost to Baltimore 13-27 - the Dolphins' rushing attack was stifled that day by the Ravens' top-5 defensive front, managing just 22/71/0 as a unit. Ronnie Brown managed 13/27/0 rushing to lead the team (1/1/0 receiving); Ricky Williams could only eke out 4/16/0. Patrick Cobbs actually outgained both Brown and Williams with 1/3/0 rushing but 5/64/0 receiving during the contest.

Since week 7, the Raven's defense has remained extremely stubborn in the rushing phase of the game, with a mere 4 rushing scores surrendered during 16 games (a league-best mark during 2008), and a stingy average of 81.4 rushing yards allowed per game. Over the last 3 weeks of regular season, they were slightly more generous, with an average of 100.3 rushing yards given up per game. Jacksonville managed 27/118/0 rushing in the season finale, but still lost to Baltimore 27-7.

The Dolphins' tandem of backs (Williams and Brown) compiled 263 yards rushing over the final 3 weeks of the season. Williams was a slightly better fantasy play, with 29/107/1 rushing and 8/64/0 receiving, while Brown had 29/156/0 rushing and 10/45/0 receiving to his credit. They basically split the touches during week 17 (as usual), with 11/57/0 rushing for Brown (4/15/0 receiving) vs. 10/50/0 rushing and 1/3/0 receiving to Williams' credit.

The Dolphins' tandem of backs is respectable but not outstanding, while the Ravens' rush defense is an elite unit. Miami has a bad matchup to deal with this week.