Week 20 Passing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense at Arizona Cardinals Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

The last time these teams clashed, on Thanksgiving, Donovan McNabb was rebounding from a half-time benching the week before: he responded with his best game of 2008, completing 27 of 39 passes for 260 yards, 4 TDs with 0 interceptions, and a passer rating of 121.7. Philly crushed the Cards 48-0 at Lincoln Financial Field in McNabb's rebound game - the win launched the team's playoff run (Philly won 3 of the next 4 games and squeaked into the playoffs). McNabb threw 1 interception during the final 5 games of the regular season beginning with this key win.

However, during the playoffs McNabb has gradually come back down to earth, throwing for 23/34 for 300 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception vs. Minnesota (a 92.8 QB rating) and then 22/40 for 217 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions vs. New York (a 58.0 rating, his worst showing over the past 7 weeks). McNabb did add a TD run to his totals last week (5/16/1), while in the passing phase he found Brent Celek for 1 TD (3/12/1) and hooked up with DeSean Jackson (4/81/0), Jason Avant (4/43/0) and Kevin Curtis (4/40/0) the most.

The Cardinals' offense enjoyed almost 20 minutes more time of possession than the Panthers last week (39:49 vs. 20:11), making the Panthers tilt their attack to passing (34 passing attempts vs. 15 rushes). There is no question that the Cardinals' defense is playing much better than their 22nd ranking vs. opposing passers during 2008 would indicate - it appears that the defense has vastly elevated their level of play in both phases of the game during the "2nd season". The Cardinals had but 13 interceptions all season long, but snagged 5 picks off of Jake Delhomme last week (17/34 for 194 net yards, 1 TD and 5 interceptions). They also sacked Delhomme twice and recovered a fumble from him on one occasion. During the Wild Card round, the Cardinals forced 2 interceptions from Matt Ryan (26/40 for 190 net yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions), with 3 sacks of Ryan and a forced/recovered fumble from Ryan, too. Kudos to Clancy Pendergast and his staff of defensive coaches - they have found a way to get the best out of their players during the playoffs.

McNabb has put together a great run to date, but he was less-than-stellar last week - meanwhile, the Cardinals have been very tough on opposing passers of late. With the 12th man in the D's corner this week, this matchup looks pretty even to us despite the Thanksgiving Day blowout.

Weather: The forecast for University of Phoenix Stadium calls for a high of 75F and a low of 43F, with a 0% chance of rain. However, Kurt Warner requested that the roof be closed for the first playoff game, and the franchise complied - it would be no surprise to see the roof closed for the NFC Championship despite the fine weather expected at game time (1:00 PM local time).

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 20 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Arizona Cardinals Passing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

With a mere 10/25/0 rushing as a team vs. the Eagles on Thanksgiving, Kurt Warner did what he could to keep his team in the game with his throwing arm, tossing 21/39 for 235 yards, 3 TDs and 3 interceptions (he wasn't sacked once as the Eagles largely elected to avoid blitzing Warner during their first meeting - reportedly, DC Jim Johnson feels that Warner excels throwing in situations where he faces a blitz). However, the defense swooned and allowed 6 TDs to Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook during the contest, leading to a 48-20 loss.

Since the final week of regular season, when the Cardinals finally went back to plan "A" in the rushing game with Edgerrin James, Warner has enjoyed the support of 50/230/1 rushing to supplement his efforts. The better balance has set up a lot of successful passes for Warner (59/94 for 754 yards, 8 TDs and 3 interceptions - he's thrown at least 2 TDs and only 1 interception per game over the last 3 weeks). Last week, while deprived of Anquan Boldin vs. Carolina due to Boldin's strained hamstring, he hit 21/32 for 220 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception in the course of a 33-13 victory. Larry Fitzgerald torched the Panthers for 8/166/1 during the contest, while Tim Hightower caught the other score (1/3/1). Steve Breaston was 2nd on the team in Boldin's absence, with 4/28/0. Boldin looks iffy for this contest, too, which means that Fitzgerald and Breaston are likely to be the primary receivers for Warner again this week (assuming that Boldin can't go). "Anquan, we'll see," head coach Ken Whisenhunt commented on Tuesday. "Obviously we're a week further along in the process of that hamstring getting better, so hopefully he'll be able to do something this week, but we'll see as the week progresses."

The Eagles' pass D smothered Eli Manning and company last week, allowing a mere 15/29 for 169 net yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions during the game. They also made life tough on Tarvaris Jackson 2 weeks ago (15/35 for 153 net yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception, with 1 sack). During the playoffs, the Eagles have exceeded their regular-season average of 182.1 net yards allowed per game (3rd in the NFL), without handing over a passing score - the team is playing very stubborn D in this phase of the game entering the Conference Championship round.

Warner had trouble with ball security the last time he faced the Eagles, who have racked up 3 interceptions so far during the playoffs. While the Cardinals have their home field crowd at their backs, this game would be a tough assignment for any NFL QB. Advantage, Philly.

Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Offense vs Baltimore Ravens Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

This game is going to be a brutal battle between 2 of the top defensive units in the NFL this year. Pittsburgh won both games earlier this year (by a margin of 3 points, in OT, on September 29th, 23-20; and then by a margin of 4 points on December 14th, 13-9), but they had to come from behind in the 2nd half of both games. We expect another low-scoring, divisional grudge match in this contest, to be played in sub-freezing temperatures and possibly stormy conditions at Heinz Field on Sunday.

Ben Roethlisberger has been able to keep mistakes to a minimum vs. Baltimore this year, with 14/24 for 191 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in September and 22/40 for 246 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions to his credit in Baltimore during December. Santonio Holmes has caught both TDs vs. the Ravens, with 3/61/1 receiving to lead the team in September (Hines Ward was second that day with 2/57/0 receiving), and 3/21/1 receiving to Holmes' credit in December (Ward led the team with 8/107/0). Nate Washington chipped in with 2/23/0 in September and 5/76/0 receiving in December. To open the playoffs, Roethlisberger threw for 17/26 yielding 181 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions vs. the Chargers (Heath Miller caught the TD (3/37/1) while Hines Ward led the team in receptions last week (4/70/0)).

Baltimore has sacked Roethlisberger 6 times this season (3 per game), which is not terribly surprising given that Pittsburgh was 4th-worst in the NFL last year with 49 sacks allowed during regular season. Baltimore tied for 11th in the NFL with 34 sacks last season, and led the league in interceptions with 26 - we've seen the Ravens snarf up 5 interceptions to date during the playoffs. At the end of last year, the Ravens were 2nd only to the Steelers in net passing yards allowed per game (179.7 per contest on average) - Kerry Collins managed 26/42 for 275 net yards last week with 0 TDs and 1 interception, but still lost 13-10 to Baltimore. The Baltimore D is one of the most-feared units in the NFL. At mid-week, there is some concern that Samari Rolle may miss this contest ("We're concerned about a lot of guys, and Samari is one of them," HC John Harbaugh said on Tuesday. "Samari has a chance to get back there, and we'll see what happens as the week goes on."), but he missed a lot of time during the regular season and the Ravens' pass D did just fine without Rolle. S Jim Leonhard, who has played well during the 2nd season, suffered a concussion last week and may be out as well - there is some attrition affecting the Ravens' pass D after 2 playoff games.

The Steelers will benefit from home field advantage this week, and Roethlisberger has managed to avoid throwing multiple interceptions when facing the Ravens to date - but this is still a very tough matchup no matter how you slice it.

Weather: Heinz Field expects sub-freezing temperatures at game time (a low of 21F is forecast for Sunday, and the game starts at 6:30 PM, so it'll be near that temperature throughout the game), with a 30% chance for snow/sleet/ice. If the weather is stormy at game time, all phases of the game will be adversely affected. Wind conditions can be extremely tricky in this venue, further impacting the passing and kicking games of both teams if winds are high during the contest.

Baltimore Ravens Passing Offense at Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Defense (Bad Matchup)

Joe Flacco managed 16/31 for 192 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions vs. the Steelers in September (but he was sacked 5 times for -52 yards); he fared worse in December with 11/28 for 115 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions (taking 2 sacks for 25 yards and fumbling once - Baltimore recovered the ball). Mark Clayton led the team in receiving a month ago (3/38/0), while Todd Heap (1/24/0) and Derrick Mason (3/23/0) chipped in when they could. The Steelers have been a wet blanket on Flacco so far during his career.

Speaking of Pittsburgh, they were wet blankets on almost every QB they faced last year, leading the NFL while averaging just 156.9 net yards allowed per game, with 12 passing TDs given up vs. 20 interceptions and 51 sacks generated. Philip Rivers made things interesting last week, streaking to 21/35 for 275 net yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception vs. Pittsburgh, though 2 of his TDs came in the final 10 minutes after the Steelers led 28-10 at 12:52 of the 4th quarter. The final score was 35-24 Pittsburgh, but the game really wasn't that close for most of the afternoon. All-Pro SS Troy Polamalu does have a sore calf entering practices this week - head coach Mike Tomlin commented on Tuesday that Polamalu might miss some practice time this week. "We're at the point in the season where it's about getting ready to play and being at the very best that you can be on game day," Tomlin said. "If that means sacrificing a little physical preparation for him, we're willing to do that." Flacco has done very well in his inaugural season, but his track record against the Steelers - and his totals of 20/45 for 296 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions during the first 2 playoff games - don't bode well for his chances in Heinz Field, in January, facing the 11 Steeler defenders and their frenzied 12th man.

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Week 20 Passing Matchups

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense at Arizona Cardinals Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Arizona Cardinals Passing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Offense vs Baltimore Ravens Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Baltimore Ravens Passing Offense at Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Defense (Bad Matchup)