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Week 19 Passing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[ARI] [BAL] [CAR] [NYG] [PHI] [PIT] [SD] [TEN]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Arizona Cardinals Passing Offense at Carolina Panthers Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

Kurt Warner ripped up the Carolina secondary back in week 8 (October 26th), throwing for 35/49 for 381 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception. Anquan Boldin hauled in both TDs (9/63/2), while Larry Fitzgerald (7/115/0) and Steve Breaston (9/91/0) were more productive in the yardage department. All told, 5 different Cardinals caught 3 or more passes from Warner (Jerheme Urban (4/51/0) and Jerame Tuman (3/41/0) rounded out the top 5). Unfortunately for the Cardinals, Carolina's offense was slightly more productive and the Cardinals lost 23-27.

Entering this contest, the status of Boldin is unclear - he was nursing a sore shoulder the final 2 weeks of regular season, and didn't play, but he made good on his vow to appear in the Cardinals' first playoff game in living memory last week (2/72/1, with a 71 yard TD). However, Boldin strained his left hamstring on the long TD pass, and played just one more snap all day long due to his latest injury. Keep an eye on the Cardinals' practice reports later in the week to monitor Boldins' status - the Cardinals rely on him in many ways and his absence would be a big blow to the entire offense (if that circumstance would come to pass). Coach Whisenhunt indicated on Monday that Boldin's status for this contest won't be known until later in the week - it looks like the Cards will play their cards close to the vest on this front. Kurt Warner played well last week under the University of Phoenix dome, with 19/32 for 271 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception vs. Atlanta. The usual suspects caught most of his passes, with 6/101/1 flowing to Fitzgerald and 2/72/1 landing in Boldin's hands - Steve Breaston was 3rd on the team last week with 2/39/0 receiving. Warner has thrown for 263 or more yards and at least 1 TD in 4 of his last 5 contests (the exception being the disastrous outing in the snow vs. New England back in week 16).

The Panthers held off a late charge by the Saints in week 17 to win the NFC South, but Drew Brees came within 16 yards of the 402 that he needed to pass Dan Marino in the record books for most passing yards in a season (Brees ended the day with 30/49 for 386 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception). Over the final 3 weeks of the season, Carolina coughed up 683 net passing yards - they bounced up and down in the final month in this phase, but finished on a sour note down in New Orleans. For the year, Carolina landed at #16 in the NFL averaging 211.7 net passing yards allowed per game, with 19 passing TDs given up vs. 12 interceptions and 37 sacks generated (9th in the NFL in the sacks generated category). The Cardinals have protected Warner pretty well this year, with 28 sacks allowed (Carolina sacked him twice the last time around the block).

Warner lit up the Panthers the last time these teams met, and we just watched Drew Brees tear this team up 2 weeks ago, as well. This looks like a good matchup for the visiting Cardinals - advantage, Arizona.

Weather: Bank of America Stadium expects a high of 52F on Saturday, with a low of 35F - there is a 40% chance of precipitation forecast. Considering this game kicks off at 8:15 PM, precipitation could be rain/sleet/snow or a mix of all three as the temperature will decline down near to freezing by the end of the game. If the weather is inclement at game time, footing, ball-handling, visibility and the passing/kicking games could be adversely affected (especially if the winds are strong).

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 19 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Carolina Panthers Passing Offense vs Arizona Cardinals Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

Carolina last hosted the Cardinals on October 26th, 2008, and they could only manage 3 points during the first half, going to the locker room down 10-3. However, they scored 21 points during the 3rd quarter and iced the game at 9:09 in the 4th with a John Kasay field goal to prevail 27-23. Jake Delhomme came on strongly after half-time adjustments and threw for 20/28 yielding 248 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions - Steve Smith flayed the Cardinals for 5/117/2 receiving, followed by Jeff King (3/41/0) and Muhsin Muhammad (5/38/0).

Delhomme relied on his wide receivers in the season finale, hitting Steve Smith (5/134/0), Muhammad (7/79/1) and D.J. Hackett (2/37/0) for all of his 250 yards passing (14/20 for 250 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions). It wasn't a stunning performance, but the Panthers notched the "W" 33-31. Over the final 3 weeks of regular season, Delhomme connected 42 times out of 65 attempts for 688 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception. It isn't hard to predict who Delhomme with throw to - but it isn't easy to stop him from finding Smith and Muhammad.

The Cardinals held off Atlanta's Matt Ryan in the wild card round by intercepting him twice (26/40 for 190 net yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions). The team had 5 sacks and 2 interceptions during the final 3 weeks of regular season, while averaging 243.6 net yards allowed per game - the entire D turned up their game a couple of notches last week. For the year, Arizona was 22nd in net yards allowed per game (221.3 on average), with a league-worst 36 passing TDs given up vs. 13 interceptions and 31 sacks generated. It isn't hard to throw TDs against Arizona.

Delhomme enjoyed good results the last time he faced Arizona, and there is no reason to expect that to change this week - advantage, Carolina.

Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Offense vs San Diego Chargers Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

Ben Roethlisberger took advantage of the Chargers' 31st ranked pass D back on November 16th, racking up 31/41 for 308 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions passing in the 11-10 Pittsburgh victory. Hines Ward led the team in receiving that day, with 11/124/0, while Santonio Holmes (5/63/0) and Matt Spaeth (6/55/0) were also heavily involved.

Unfortunately for the Steelers, Roethlisberger suffered a concussion in the season finale and carted off the field. All tests came back negative for serious damage, which is encouraging, but he didn't practice at all during the bye week. Here's what OC Bruce Arians had to say on the subject during the bye week: "He'll be fine, and if he's not we won't play him. We're going to run what we run and be who we are, but he'll be fine." Regarding Roethlisberger missing practices last week, Arians replied, "He wouldn't have gotten any reps anyway. Byron (Leftwich) needed the reps. Dennis (Dixon) needs the reps." Obviously, fantasy owners invested in Roethlisberger will want to watch his practice status later this week.

To close regular season (weeks 15-17), Roethlisberger threw for 57/94 yielding 687 yards, 3 TDs and 3 interceptions (20th best fantasy QB in points per game). As usual, Hines Ward (27 targets for 21/286/1 receiving) led the team in targets and receptions during that 3 week time span; Santonio Holmes saw 22 for 11/145/2; and Heath Miller was 3rd with 21 for 16/150/0. Nate Washington has also come on of late, with 18 targets for 9/127/0 to his credit.

The Chargers held off Indy 23-17 in OT last week, but their suspect pass D was victimized by Peyton Manning for 25/42 yielding 302 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. The Chargers did manage to sack Manning once at a critical juncture, which was one of their keys to the game, but by and large they remain what they were during regular season: a bottom-of-the-barrel pass D that averaged 247.4 net yards allowed per game, with 25 passing TDs surrendered over 16 games vs. 15 interceptions and 28 sacks generated.

Roethlisberger is at the controls of an efficient passing attack, and they have a good chance to shine this week against the weak Chargers' secondary (as long as the weather in Pittsburgh doesn't get too nasty - keep an eye on the forecast as game time approaches - weather in Pennsylvania at this time of year can be severe).

Weather: Heinz Field expects a high of 23F with a low of 18F on Sunday - there is a 30% chance of precipitation around game time. At this time of year, precipitation would almost certainly be sleet and/or snow - if the weather is stormy at game time, all phases of the game will be adversely affected as footing, ball-handling, and visibility will be more challenging than usual. If the winds are high, the passing and kicking games will also be even more difficult than usual - this venue is noted for swirling, unpredictable winds. A winter storm would probably tend to favor the home-town Steelers rather than the Chargers, the latter being used to the mild weather of Southern California.

Baltimore Ravens Passing Offense at Tennessee Titans Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Joe Flacco didn't fare well vs. Tennessee back in week 5 of the regular season, pitching 18/27 for 153 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions in the Ravens' 10-13 loss. He wasn't sacked during the game, but Nick Harper and Michael Griffin both took advantage of Flacco's green status in early October.

Flacco wasn't asked to carry the Ravens' offense vs. Miami in the wild card round - a good thing, too, as he could only manage 9/23 for 135 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions passing. Flacco did run for some key first downs and score, though (5/8/1 rushing). This team plays stifling defense and grinds the ball on the ground to control the clock. As usual, when Flacco did put up the ball, Derrick Mason was the most successful receiver (4/71/0 vs. Miami). Mason snagged 80/1037/5 out of 121 targets during regular season - the next-most-successful Baltimore receiver was Mark Clayton with 41/695/3 receiving on 82 targets.

The Titans' pass D is among the league's finest, averaging 199.8 net yards allowed per game (9th in the NFL), with 12 passing TDs given up vs. 20 interceptions generated and 44 sacks meted out to opponents. They took the week off vs. Indianapolis in the season finale to rest up for the playoffs (29/37 for 269 yards, 1 TD allowed with 0 interceptions), but most of the time the Titans are tough on opposing passers. They did give up a lot of yards in the final 3 weeks of 2008 (840 net passing yards allowed in the final 3 games), but we expect Tennessee to bring their "A" game to their home field stand throughout the playoffs.

Flacco does what the Ravens ask of him, but it doesn't add up to much in the box score, usually. Against the Titans, look for a lot of Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee running the ball and relatively little of Joe Flacco passing the ball. Advantage, Tennessee.

Weather: LP Field expects a high of 43F with a low of 26F on Saturday, and there is a 30% chance of rain/sleet/snow forecast. If the weather is inclement at game time, footing, ball-handling, visibility and the passing/kicking games could be adversely affected (especially if the winds are strong).

New York Giants Passing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

These teams split their regular season series, with a 36-31 victory recorded by New York on November 9th; Philly took their revenge at New York on December 7th with a 6 point victory, 20-14. During the first game, New York's Eli Manning threw for 17/31 yielding 191 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception (he was sacked once). Kevin Boss (6/69/1) and Plaxico Burress (1/17/1) handled the TD passes from Manning that day. One month later, Manning pitched 13/27 for 123 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions, while avoiding taking a sack. Steve Smith (4/47/0) and Domenik Hixon (3/30/0) were the top receivers against Philly during game 2 vs. Philly.

Manning closed out regular season with a part-game appearance vs. Minnesota (11/19 for 119 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions) while backup David Carr got some reps in during the 2nd half (8/11 for 110 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions). Domenik Hixon led the team in receptions with 4/62/1, but spent the bye week nursing a sore ankle/foot and didn't participate in practices. Keep an eye on his status at the end of this week as Hixon has been a key contributor since the Plaxico Burress self-inflicted wound/gun debacle. To date this season, Amani Toomer leads the team with 89 targets for 48/580/4 receiving; Steve Smith is 2nd with 82 for 57/574/1; and Hixon is 3rd with 72 for 43/596/2 receiving. Kevin Boss has caught the most TDs this season, with 55 targets for 33/384/6 - he missed the season finale with a concussion, but the team is reported to be "confident" that he'll play in the playoffs.

Philly averaged 182.1 net passing yards allowed per game last year (3rd in the NFL), with 19 passing TDs given up vs. 15 interceptions and 48 sacks recorded (3rd-most sacks in the NFL). They only sacked Tarvaris Jackson once in the wild-card round of the playoffs (15/35 for 153 net yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception), but curtailed his effectiveness none-the-less. Over the final 3 weeks of the regular season, the Eagles racked up 9 sacks and 3 interceptions while averaging 159 net yards allowed per game - they've been holding teams under 160 yards passing all winter long, folks.

New York deploys a wide selection of receivers for Manning to utilize, but he and they have a very tough matchup on their hands when the hated Eagles roll into Giants' Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Weather: Giants' Stadium expects a high of 31F on Sunday, with a low of 21F later that evening - there is only a 10% chance for precipitation, so hopefully the field won't be covered in snow on Sunday. However, this venue is noted for high, swirling winds during the winter - it would be no surprise to see the passing and kicking games adversely affected even in the absence of stormy weather.

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense at New York Giants Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

These teams split their regular season series, with a 36-31 victory recorded by New York on November 9th; Philly took their revenge at New York on December 7th with a 6 point victory, 20-14. During the first game, Donovan McNabb tossed 3 TDs (17/36 for 194 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception). McNabb favored DeSean Jackson with 4/61/0 to lead the team, but hit Kevin Curtis (3/25/1); Jason Avant (2/25/1); and Hank Baskett (1/7/1) for the TDs. The second contest saw 19/30 for 191 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions thrown by McNabb - he hit Brian Westbrook the most (6/72/1) and also relied on L.J. Smith (6/44/0).

Smith missed the first playoff game due to an injured shoulder, leaving Brent Celek (6/56/0 receiving) to take up the slack at TE. Brian Westbrook led the team vs. Minnesota with 3/83/1 receiving, while Kevin Curtis (4/49/0); Jason Avant (5/47/0) and DeSean Jackson (1/34/0) helped the team on their way to 23/34 for 300 yards passing, 1 TD and 1 interception thrown by Donovan McNabb. McNabb has thrown 5 TDs and 2 interceptions in his last 4 games, with 995 yards passing in those contests - he's hot rolling into this contest in New York.

The Giants' pass D was 8th vs. opposing passers during 2008, averaging 196.2 net yards allowed per game, with 17 passing TDs given up balanced by 17 sacks and 42 sacks generated (6th in the NFL in the sacks category). Philly was in the top-10 in terms of sacks allowed last year, though, with only 23 surrendered through 16 contests. During the final 3 weeks of 2008, the Giants averaged 208 net pass yards allowed per game, with 6 sacks and 1 interception generated during that time span. Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikings managed 16/26 for 218 net yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the season finale, with 2 sacks recorded by the Giants' defense.

McNabb was solid but unspectacular the last time he faced the Giants - this week, he'll have a howling 12th man interfering with play-calling at Giants' Stadium, and a very good pass D lurking beyond the line of scrimmage. This looks like a tough matchup for McNabb and company from where we sit.

San Diego Chargers Passing Offense at Pittsburgh Steelers Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Philip Rivers struggled the last time he faced the Steelers in Heinz Field, eking out 15/26 for 164 yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions while taking 2 sacks from Pittsburgh's #1 ranked pass D. Malcolm Floyd was the most prolific wide receiver during the contest, with 2/29/0, while LaDainian Tomlinson led the team with 3/45/0 receiving. San Diego lost the first contest 10-11.

Since the week 11 contest vs. Pittsburgh, Rivers has been a man on a mission - he lifted the team from 4-8 to open December to 8-8 and the AFC West crown by the end of December (with 70/99 for 840 yards, 8 TDs and 1 interception in the final 3 games of the month), and then followed up with a respectable showing against the stout Indy pass D (20/36 for 217 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception). He didn't find the end zone last week, but Indy has only given up 6 pass TDs in all 17 games they played this past season. Last week, Antonio Gates (8/87/0), Chris Chambers (4/57/0), and Darren Sproles (5/45/0) led the team in receiving while Vincent Jackson was covered up and taken out of the game by the Colts' pass D.

Unfortunately, news is breaking in San Diego as of Tuesday afternoon that Jackson was arrested for suspicion of driving under the influence at 2 AM on Tuesday morning. He is already on probation for a previous DUI arrest, according to an officer with the California Highway Patrol. Chargers GM A.J. Smith commented on the situation briefly: "Obviously we're disappointed," Smith said. "We take these issues very seriously. Moving forward, we will monitor the situation and have no further comment."

The Steelers are actually a better pass D in the net-yards-allowed department than the Colts (Pittsburgh ended 2008 #1 in the NFL averaging just 156.9 net yards allowed per game, with a 2nd-best (tied) mark of only 12 passing TDs given up during 16 games). They generated 20 interceptions compared to 12 passing TDs given up last year, and boast of 51 sacks during that time span (the Chargers were among the 10-best pass blocking offensive lines last year, though, with only 25 sacks given up through 16 contests). The injury-hampered Browns had to throw Bruce Gradkowski to the wolves in the season finale (Ken Dorsey, their 3rd string QB, went down to injury the week before) and as a team they managed 6/18 for 20 net yards, 0 TDs and 2 interceptions at Heinz Field. Another item to keep an eye on - the weather forecast for Pittsburgh is calling for sub-freezing temps and a 30% chance for precipitation - conditions that Rivers and the Southern-California dwelling Chargers aren't used to at all. If it comes on to storm at game time on Sunday afternoon, the passing game of both teams could be significantly impacted.

Rivers and company were braked by the Colts' pass D last week, and they face a hostile crowd, bad weather conditions, and an equally strong pass D again this week - that sounds like a tough matchup any way you slice it. If their top receiver is suspended before the game, it becomes even tougher than before.

Tennessee Titans Passing Offense vs Baltimore Ravens Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Kerry Collins didn't play particularly well for 3 quarters the last time he saw Baltimore (October 5th of 2008) - throwing for 17/32 yielding 163 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions. However, the TD pass to Alge Crumpler a 1:56 remaining in the 4th quarter capped a 10-point final-period rally to lift Tennessee to a 13-10 victory. It is never easy to beat the Ravens, but Collins and company managed to turn the trick last time around the block despite an unusually-ineffective rushing attack (22/47/0 rushing vs. Baltimore back in week 3).

Collins threw 2 passes in his cameo appearance vs. Indianapolis - prior to week 17, he had thrown for 3 TDs and 3 interceptions during the previous 3 games, with 49/85 for 552 yards piled up during those contests. Justin McCareins (21 targets for 10/111/0 receiving); Justin Gage (17 for 10/198/2); and Bo Scaife (16 for 9/56/0) were by far Collins' favorite 3 targets - nobody else had more than 10 targets during that 3 week span, although Chris Johnson caught all 8 passes that came his way during those weeks (8 targets for 8/33/0).

We saw just how devastating the Ravens' combination of up-front pressure combined with ball-hawking secondary can be vs. Miami - Chad Pennington was sacked 3 times last week (and took many more hits on pressure) while throwing 4 interceptions, one returned for a TD by Ed Reed (25/38 for 224 net yards, 1 TD and 4 interceptions). The Ravens recorded 26 interceptions last year (the most in the NFL during regular season) and had 34 sacks (11th in the NFL) while averaging 179.7 net passing yards allowed per game (2nd in the NFL), with 17 pass TDs given away. It is imperative for the Titans to keep up their solid pass blocking (12 sacks given up during regular season, #1 in the NFL) so that Collins doesn't have to rush his throws on Saturday.

Tennessee managed to come back to win vs. Baltimore the first time around the block, but they know it'll be a knock-down, drag-out contest again this week in LP Field. Advantage, Baltimore.

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