Week 18 Passing Matchups

by Mark Wimer and Joe Bryant, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

[ARI] [ATL] [BAL] [IND] [MIA] [MIN] [PHI] [SD]

PLEASE NOTE: This does NOT replace the Cheatsheet ranking. The Cheatsheet rankings are the final say on where we see a player for that week. The Matchup Breakdowns are simply one more tool in the box when it comes to helping choose your lineup.

Also note, just because a player has a "bad" matchup, it does NOT mean he's not a starter in your league. If Peyton Manning is playing the toughest pass defense in the league, that just means he's got a tough matchup that week. He's also your starter unless you're loaded at QB. In the same way, if the worst QB on your roster has a "great" matchup that week, it doesn't necessarily mean he's your starter. It means we think he'll fare better than normal that week.

Bottom line is that the cheatsheets are the final say.

Indianapolis Colts Passing Offense at San Diego Chargers Passing Defense (Great Matchup)

Peyton Manning managed to position his team for a Adam Vinatieri field goal at the buzzer to beat San Diego 23-20 back in regular season's week 12 (November 23rd). He threw 2 TDs during the game (32/44 for 255 yards, 2 TDs and 1 interception), one to Anthony Gonzalez (6/95/1) and one to Dominic Rhodes (5/21/1). All the other usual suspects caught passes during the game (Reggie Wayne was held in check with 2/34/0; Marvin Harrison handled short stuff with 6/44/0; Joseph Addai snagged 7/31/0 and Dallas Clark handled 6/30/0). It was enough to win the game, but just enough.

Manning had a perfect rating last week after picking apart the Titans' backups before an early exit - he left the game with 7/7 for 95 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions - just enough yardage to go over 4,000 yards in a season (again, as usual - he posted 371/555 for 4,002 yards, 27 TDs and 12 interceptions this season). Over the last 3 weeks, Manning has tossed 64/78 for 777 yards, 5 TDs and 0 interceptions - he's humming along nicely entering the playoffs, with no turnover woes and good pass protection (the Colts have allowed only 14 sacks all year long, 3rd-best in the NFL). Dallas Clark (31 targets for 26/306/2 over the last 3 weeks) has been his favorite receiver of late, while Reggie Wayne (19 for 15/227/1), while Marvin Harrison (15 for 9/53/0) and Dominic Rhodes (11 for 10/92/1) have been the other players with double-digit chances at the ball of late. Anthony Gonzalez (9 for 6/56/0 over the last 3 weeks) dinged up his hip during the season finale, but afterwards coach Dungy indicated that Gonzalez "probably could have gone back in if we needed him." It looks like the Colts' passing attack will be at full strength while visiting San Diego.

The Chargers' pass D has been awful all year long, averaging 247.4 net yards allowed per game (31st in the NFL), with 25 passing TDs given up vs. 15 interceptions and just 28 sacks generated through 16 contests. They allowed 722 net passing yards in the final 3 games of regular season (240.6 per contest on average), with just 2 sacks generated (5 interceptions were stolen, though). Jay Cutler wasn't sacked once last week while dropping back for 33/49 yielding 316 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions during the 52-21 loss to the Chargers.

Manning is on top of his game entering the playoffs, while the Chargers' pass D is far from impressive. Advantage, Indianapolis.

Weather: Qualcomm Stadium expects a high of 62F with a low of 48F and a 10% chance of rain on Sunday - weather conditions shouldn't play much of a role in this contest as long as the forecast holds up. This game is slated for a 8 PM ET start, so temperatures will be cooling off as the game progresses - it should be a very pleasant evening to play (and watch) football.

The official NFL injury report with Probable, Questionable, Doubtful and Out designations will be available by Saturday. Please refer to the week 18 injury report for the latest injury news regarding your players.

Arizona Cardinals Passing Offense vs Atlanta Falcons Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

"If anybody thinks that I'm going to miss this game, they're not too bright," declared Anquan Boldin on Monday. He has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury, but is determined to play vs. Atlanta. "If my arm was broke, I'd be out there. I'm not missing this one." During Boldin's absence, Larry Fitzgerald (18 targets for 8/231/3 receiving) has led the team, followed by Jerheme Urban (10 for 6/79/1) and Steve Breaston (10 for 6/97/1). The Cardinals had 3 1,000+ yard receivers this year - Fitzgerald (96/1434/12); Boldin (89/1038/11); and Breaston (77/1003/3) while Kurt Warner led the team to 401/598 for 4583 yards, 30 TDs and 14 interceptions. After his disastrous game in the snow at New England, Warner bounced back last week to post 19/30 for 263 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception vs. the Seahawks' pass D - Fitzgerald (5/130/2), Breaston (5/91/1) and Urban (4/43/1) handled the TDs in the season finale. Entering the wild card round, the Cardinals' offense seems to have righted their course after stumbling badly earlier in December.

Atlanta limited Marc Bulger and company to 19/32 for 206 net yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions in their 31-27 victory during week 17 (they sacked Bulger 3 times last week). Over the last 3 weeks, the Falcons have handed over 627 net passing yards (209 per contest on average), while generating 10 sacks and 1 interception during that time span. The Cardinals are in the middle of the NFL with 28 sacks allowed during 2008, while Atlanta piled up 34 sacks (tied for 11th in the NFL). During the final month of the regular season, Atlanta's pass D tightened up considerably compared to their season average (220.4 net yards allowed per game on average, with 20 passing TDs given up vs. 10 interceptions generated). They are playing pretty well in this phase of the game as of the wild card round.

The Cardinals have a potent passing attack and they'll be on their home turf this week - meanwhile, the Falcons have improved their performance in December, but they are still far from a Pittsburgh or Baltimore caliber unit. At University of Phoenix Stadium, this looks like a good matchup for the home team.

Weather: Inside University of Phoenix Stadium, the weather shouldn't be a big factor in this matchup. If the weather looks threatening near game time, the roof will be closed. If it is clear and cool, then the roof will be open - either way, expect good conditions for this playoff contest.

Atlanta Falcons Passing Offense at Arizona Cardinals Passing Defense (Good Matchup)

Matt Ryan was out-of-synch last week, tossing a mere 10/21 for 160 yards, with 1 TD and 2 interceptions against the sub-par Rams. He's faded badly during December, with 38/68 for 500 yards, 2 TDs and 4 interceptions during the last 3 games - has Ryan hit the "rookie wall" at last? He's been less than spectacular, that's for certain. Roddy White has seen 7 targets per game over the last 3 weeks, snagging 10/133/1 (including 3/48/1 vs the Rams last week). He set the team record in receiving yards for a season (88/1382/7), and had the 4th-most receiving yards in the NFL this year to his credit. "It means a lot to me," White said after the game on Sunday. "Especially after the first two seasons when everybody was saying that I was going to be a bust. Just to come back and this happen to me, it's been great. It's been a great season for us and it's been a good season for me, too." Michael Jenkins has seen 18 balls come his way of late (11/188/0), while Jerious Norwood is 3rd on the team during the last 3 weeks with 8 targets for 5/57/1). Ryan and company surprised everyone and made the playoffs, but in order for Atlanta to advance Ryan needs to turn up his game several notches this week if Atlanta is to keep pace with the Cardinals' outstanding offense.

Speaking of the Cardinals, they field a very generous pass D that has allowed by far the most passing TDs of any unit in the league (36 TDs handed over during 2008), while generating just 13 interceptions. They do have 31 sacks this year, but even with a respectable pass rush the team is ranked 22nd in the NFL averaging 221.3 net yards allowed per game. Over the last 3 weeks, the Cardinals have allowed 731 net passing yards with only 2 interceptions and 5 sacks during that time span. The entire Arizona defense crashed-and-burned for most of December before rebounding somewhat in the win over anemic Seattle last week (they still gave up 24/43 for 243 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions to Seneca Wallace during the game, though).

Ryan has been in the doldrums of late, but he's got a good shot at bouncing back vs. the suspect Arizona defense.

Baltimore Ravens Passing Offense at Miami Dolphins Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Joe Flacco managed the first game vs. Miami (October 19th, week 7) very well, taking 3 sacks but not turning the ball over (he did fumble once, but it was recovered by Baltimore) on the way to 17/23 for 232 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions. Derrick Mason was the lead receiver that day, with 6/87/1; RBs Willis McGahee (2/47/0) and Ray Rice (2/46/0) were the 2nd- and 3rd-most prolific receivers during the contest. The Ravens won the game handily, 27-13.

Flacco has been steady but unspectacular during December, throwing for 45/76 for 561 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions over the last 3 weeks. He uncorked several deep balls last week vs. Jacksonville (17/23 for 297 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions), finding Mark Clayton (4/128/0) and Derrick Mason (6/77/0) the most often - Troy Smith also saw some playing time in the "Suggs Formation", and he connected for 1/2 yielding 25 yards, 0 TDs and 0 interceptions in his time on the field. As long as Flacco can generate first downs and get the team near the goal-line, the RB corps can punch in the ball more often than not.

The Dolphins' pass D isn't a shut-down type unit, averaging 227.8 net yards allowed per game during 2008 (25th in the NFL), but they don't give up a ton of TDs (18 handed over during 16 contests in the regular season), and they generated 18 interceptions and 40 sacks (in the upper tier of both categories this past year) to balance out the TDs allowed. They followed the same pattern during December, with 8 sacks and 6 interceptions over their past 3 games, while averaging 256.3 net passing yards allowed per contest - Brett Favre and company posted 21/41 for 251 yards, 1 TD and 3 interceptions in the season finale vs. Miami. The Ravens have given up 33 sacks this season - in the middle of the NFL range - so look for Miami to come after Flacco in passing situations with regularity during this contest.

Flacco showed off his live arm last week, but usually is asked to stay conservative. The Dolphins bend-but-don't-break in this phase of the game, and get after the passer with pressure up front and in the secondary. The visitors are evenly matched with the home team in this contest.

Weather: The forecast for Dolphin Stadium calls for a high of 76F with a low of 62F and a 10% chance for rain - weather conditions shouldn't have a big impact on the outcome of this game if the weather service's predictions are correct.

Philadelphia Eagles Passing Offense at Minnesota Vikings Passing Defense (Neutral Matchup)

Donovan McNabb has been efficient and productive with the football of late, with 64/102 for 695 yards, 4 TDs and 1 interception passing (while rushing for 5/12/1 during the last 3 weeks). DeSean Jackson set the Eagles' rookie record for receiving yards with his 34-yard catch that set up the Eagles' second touchdown last Sunday. Jackson finished the season with a team-leading 912 receiving yards (62/912/2), and has been McNabb's top target during the last 3 weeks (19 targets for 9/137/0). As always, Brian Westbrook gets a lot of looks (14 targets for 11/97/0 over the last 3 weeks), while McNabb spreads the ball around to various other players from week to week. Last week, Correll Buckhalter (3/59/1) and Brent Celek (3/30/1) caught the TDs - Celek was subbing for L.J. Smith who was out with a shoulder injury. Smith was doubtful last week - he may be limited this week due to his injury (if he plays at all).

The Vikings' pass D isn't as fearsome as their rushing defense, but they are O.K., ranking 18th in the NFL averaging 215.6 net yards allowed per game, with 15 TDs given up over 16 contests this year, vs. 12 interceptions and 45 sacks generated (4th in the NFL in this category - the Eagles have allowed 23 sacks to date, among the better pass-blocking offensive lines in the NFL this year). Over the past 3 weeks, Minnesota has allowed 619 net passing yards (206.3 per contest on average) with 1 interception and 8 sacks generated. The Giants' duo of QBs threw for 19/30 for 222 yards, 1 TD and 0 interceptions vs. Minnesota last week, about par for the course with this squad.

McNabb played well during December, while the Vikings are respectable but not elite at pass D. With a deafening 12th man at the Vikings' backs this week, this looks like a fairly even matchup from where we're sitting - neither squad has a clear edge over the other before the fact.

Weather: Inside the Metrodome, weather won't play a role in this contest.

Miami Dolphins Passing Offense vs Baltimore Ravens Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Chad Pennington moved the Dolphins up and down the field against the Ravens back in week 7 (24/35 for 295 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception passing), but the team couldn't convert enough chances into TDs, and the Dolphins went down to Baltimore 13-27. WR Greg Camarillo (now on IR) led the team with 6/74/0 receiving; TE David Martin was 2nd on the team with 4/71/0 receiving to his credit that day. WR Davone Bess scored the TD (2/12/1).

Coming into this game, Martin has unfortunately suffered head and neck injuries (including a concussion) during the season finale, making him something of a question mark for the wild card round. He and fellow TE Anthony Fasano have been key components of the passing game during December, with 4/85/2 receiving by Martin in the last 3 games of the season, and 8/106/3 receiving on the part of Fasano. 5 of Chad Pennington's last 7 TD passes were snagged by Martin or Fasano - Pennington has thrown 60/83 for 591 yards, 7 TDs and 1 interception over the last 3 weeks (TE Joey Haynos also has grabbed a TD during that time span, with 2/22/1, which means 6 of Pennington's last 7 TDs have been hauled in by Dolphin TEs). Ted Ginn Jr. has snagged the lone TD caught by a WR during the last 3 weeks, with 8/121/1, while Davone Bess has caught the most balls (15/121/0).

The Ravens' pass D is slightly more giving than their defensive front, but not by much. They average 179.7 net passing yards allowed per game (2nd-best passing yards allowed average in the NFL), with 17 passing TDs handed over (vs. just 4 rushing TDs). However, the Ravens often make opposing passers pay for putting up the ball, with a league-best 26 interceptions as a team (Ravens free safety Ed Reed intercepted two more passes last week to finish with 9 for the year, tying his franchise record set in 2004 - when he was named the NFL Defensive Player of the Year). They have amassed 34 sacks this year (11th in the NFL), with 6 sacks and 4 interceptions generated over the past 3 weeks (they averaged 194 net passing yards allowed per game over that time span). David Garrard was frustrated to the tune of 14/25 for 127 yards, 1 TD and 2 interceptions during last week's 27-7 win over Jacksonville.

Pennington and his TEs have been on fire throughout December, but they face a tough matchup at home to open January.

Minnesota Vikings Passing Offense vs Philadelphia Eagles Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Tarvaris Jackson led his team into the playoffs last week, completing his triumphant return to the starting QB role with the Vikings. He managed 16/26 for 239 yards, 1 TD and 1 interception in the narrow victory over the New York Giants (20-19). Bobby Wade (4/98/0) and Bernard Berrian (4/81/1) did the heavy lifting vs. New York, while Visanthe Shiancoe was quiet vs. his former squad (2/14/0). Over the last 3 weeks, Jackson has compiled 49/79 for 635 yards, 7 TDs and 1 interception (12/75/0 rushing) to land at #4 among all fantasy QBs - he's been impressive since getting his chance to shine. Over the last 3 weeks, Wade (16 targets for 11/203/1) and Berrian (15 for 7/140/2) have been Jackson's favorite targets, with 12 for 10/82/1 going to Chester Taylor and 11 for 10/158/2 flowing to Shiancoe.

The Eagles' blitzing (48 sacks, 3rd in the NFL), ball-hawking (15 interceptions, in the middle of the NFL range) defense left regular season ranked 3rd vs. opposing passers (182.1 net yards allowed per game), with 19 passing TDs surrendered over the past 16 contests. They averaged a mere 159 net passing yards allowed per game during the final 3 weeks of regular season, with 3 interceptions and 9 sacks during that span of time (the Vikings have allowed 43 sacks this year, 7th-most in the NFL). Last week, Tony Romo (21/39 for 183 yards, 0 TDs and 1 interception) collapsed in the showers post-game after taking 4 sacks and a lot more hits from the Eagles in their 44-6 destruction of Dallas (he said "Um, you know, I was just a little banged up, I guess," after the incident). Philadelphia is bringing the lumber to bear on their opposition entering January.

Jackson has carried his team into the playoffs, but he's got a tough matchup to deal with this week - his offensive linemen need to elevate their play or he'll be pounded into mincemeat by the Eagles on Sunday.

Weather: Inside the Metrodome, weather won't play a role in this contest.

San Diego Chargers Passing Offense vs Indianapolis Colts Passing Defense (Tough Matchup)

Phillip Rivers was one of the few QBs to enjoy solid numbers against the Colts' record-setting pass D, throwing for 2 of the minuscule 6 TDs they allowed during 2008 regular season (24/31 for 288 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions). Vincent Jackson (2/57/1 receiving) and Jacob Hester (3/16/1) notched the TDs during week 12, while Chris Chambers (6/61/0) and now-injured Malcolm Floyd (2/54/0) helped move the sticks. Floyd has missed several games due to a lung injury - we'll see if he can get back into the action for the second season.

During the stretch run into the playoffs (and an unlikely AFC West crown), Rivers has been spectacular, with 70/99 for 840 yards, 8 TDs and 1 interception passing over the last 3 weeks. Vincent Jackson (20 targets for 15/247/1 receiving), Antonio Gates (18 for 14/170/2), Chris Chambers (14 for 7/105/0) and LaDainian Tomlinson (14 for 8/55/0) have been his top targets, while Darren Sproles has snagged every throw that has come his way during that 3-week time span (9 for 9/74/2). Rivers personally burned the Broncos for 15/20 for 207 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions last week, and watched his RBs cram in 5 rushing TDs vs. Denver.

The Colts' pass D has played superlatively throughout 2008, giving up the afore-mentioned 6 passing TDs over 16 games, while limiting teams to an average of 188.1 net passing yards per game (6th in the NFL). They have more than twice as many interceptions (15) as TDs given up, with 30 sacks generated through 16 contests. Over the final 3 weeks of regular season, the team generated 6 sacks and 1 interception, while averaging 193 net yards allowed per game in this phase (Tennessee's backups eked out just 42 net yards passing last week, though, skewing the average downwards somewhat).

Rivers has been on fire, but the Colts' D is tough on almost everybody. Look for a hard-fought, close battle in this phase of the game on Saturday.