Breaking Down the Scouting Process

  Posted 8/12 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

This article will present an outline of some of the many possible factors that might be weighed and evaluated in a thorough vetting of prospects. The list is intended to be representative and suggestive, rather than comprehensive and exhaustive. More important than being a rigid template of criteria is if this serves as a springboard for your own thinking, or launching pad for finding your own ways to formulate and organize the material.

One way to look at the process of scouting and breaking down prospects is to think of a series of stacked transparency OVERLAYS, comprised of individual sheets themselves containing a partial image with different and separated color codes, which when combined together render a more coherent picture of the prospect being examined. Having a more complete picture of individual prospects will help to make more informed decisions in drafting and dynasty roster construction.

The process which this metaphor is trying to capture involves being able to keep track of and grasp different kinds of information about a prospect (observing not only the surface features but drilling down and attending to many smaller details and keeping them in mind simultaneously) when making judgments and decisions about players and rosters. Certainly with veterans there will be much quantitative and historical data to draw from through their body of work, stats and trends. But with rookies and younger players suddenly thrust into greater prominence (whether through injuries, cuts, trades, beating out a vet for a starting gig, etc.), other means must be used to make inferences about how the physical traits, athletic gifts and skill sets they bring to the table will translate to the NFL, as well as how they are likely to separate themselves into poor, average, good and outstanding pro talents.

Needless to say, scouting different positions and breaking down their relative prospects may entail prioritizing certain traits and attributes more than others. That said, all positions will share many common characteristics in the evaluation process. Below are 21 (BLACKJACK!) traits, attributes and categories which might be worth taking a closer look at, in trying to build a "tool kit" of ways by which to vet potential prospects and help parse their chances at the next level. Feel free to add your own and expand your repertoire of tools to bring to bear in attacking the problem of scouting prospects.

PHYSICAL TRAITS

Scouts know triangle numbers (height, weight and 40 time) are often correlated with success or failure, so they do their homework and know what constitutes current acceptable, exceptional and inferior numbers for the respective positions. They aren't immutable, ironclad "laws", but can be another valuable layer and level of data to look at. Knowing the rules helps to know when it is OK to break the rules. Though MIN DB Antoine Winfield doesn't have prototypical measurables for a stud run support CB (5'9" 180), he is such an aggressive, skilled and voracious tackler that his lack of prototypical size is effectively rendered irrelevant. An interesting question regarding this is whether NYG RB Brandon Jacobs is "too tall" to be feature back material in the NFL. At 6'4" he is one of the taller RBs in league history. Scouts are still divided on this issue, and until he proves he can stay healthy for an extended period, it will remain an open and unanswered question.

OTHER MEASURABLES

Measurables such as the vertical jump can be a great indicator of explosiveness. Cone drill and shuttle times which test quickness and change-of-direction can be useful in sorting WRs and DBs. STL WR Keenan Burton is an example of a rookie prospect who had been flying somewhat under the radar before generating some buzz with an exceptional camp... another reason to think he may not be a fluke but a legit talent is he fared very well among his peers in some of the speed, quickness and explosiveness drills at the 2008 Combine.

ATHLETICISM AND VERSATILITY

DBs that can just handle run support but are a liability in coverage and the converse case of DBs that are only adept in coverage but severely limited in run support are fast becoming dinosaurs. DBs like Bob Sanders, Kerry Rhodes and Sean Jones that can hit like a LB, cover like a CB and have the range and aerial skills of an elite safety are increasingly in vogue. Top 10 drafted safeties used to be very rare, but several that fit the multitasking profile of being able to run, hit and cover in recent seasons (including Donte Whitner, Michael Huff, LaRon Landry and the late Sean Taylor) have made this an increasingly common occurrence in drafts.

PEDIGREE

This could be meant in several senses, in terms of bloodlines and "NFL genes", and draft pedigree. Highly regarded safety LaRon Landry of the Redskins would be an example illustrating both meanings. His older brother Dawan of the Ravens had an outstanding rookie season in '06 (and LaRon comes into the league far more heralded). The younger Landry was the consensus top safety, DB and arguably overall defensive player in the nation in his class (as the sixth overall selection narrowly missing being the top overall defensive pick in the '07 draft - highly touted Bucs DE Gaines Adams received that distinction by being taken off the board fourth overall), and one of the highest drafted safeties in the past several decades. KC SLB Derrick Johnson also had good bloodlines (his brother Dwight played for the Giants and cousin Bert Emanuel was a former Falcons first round QB/WR conversion who starred in ATLs potent "Red Gun" passing attack). DJ also carried an elite, blue chip grade in the draft and was selected in the mid-first round (very high for a LB). In 2008, Rams highly touted rookie DE and second overall pick in the draft Chris Long obviously belongs in this category.

RESUME

How did the prospect fare in college, and looking back even further, what were their prep accomplishments. Every player has a kind of trajectory to their career. Tracing it can help you see the outline of its arc in advance. DEN MLB D.J. Williams and DET WLB Ernie Sims have almost identical resumes in that they were star two way RB/LBs and among the highest recruited preps in the nation for their respective classes. Based on the fact that NYJ CB Darrelle Revis had a phenomenal multi-sport prep career, excelled in college and was as good as advertised as a rookie, he looks like an ascendant player and emerging star.

PRODUCTIVITY

IND SS Bob Sanders doesn't fit the mold with prototypical size, and he definitely comes with injury concern baggage, but at Iowa and with the Colts, he has always been productive when on the field. While he may not look the part of an intimidating secondary presence, or how you would draw up from scratch via a blueprint in a bioengineering lab, when he is on the field the dude just gets it done. While short he isn't small, and actually has an imposing physical stature, and his 4.3 40 and 40"+ vertical jump are athletic equalizers and key compensating factors that more than make up for his lack of classic size for the position. He is also proof that it is hard to measure a man's heart, determination and intensity by means available to quants.

DURABILITY AND MEDICAL HISTORY

Is there a pattern of missed games, dating back to college and even prep career? TB RB Cadillac Williams had tantalizing potential given the record breaking first three games to start his NFL career, but he has proved risky, with a disturbing medical history (he already had foot and back problems in just two years as a pro, before suffering a catastrophic and potentially career-ending/debilitating knee injury last season). In retrospect, perhaps his relatively unproven body of work as a feature RB, splitting carries with Ronnie Brown while at Auburn should have been a greater concern to scouts. Since retired ex-CAR MLB Dan Morgan made Evil Knievel look like a piker, and was a poster child for this category. DAL ILB Zach Thomas will be worth keeping a close eye on this season, after missing much of last season with slow to heal concussion symptoms.

LEVEL OF COMPETITION

Div I or small school? Using level of competition as a "filter" or screening device is more important to invoke early on in the scouting process. Once small school players become established, we cease to care as much if CHI CB Charles Tillman went to Louisiana-Lafayette or new MIN DE Jared Allen went to Idaho State. Pro Bowl caliber CB Rashean Mathis of JAX came from the modest starting point of tiny Bethune-Cookman. WAS MLB London Fletcher-Baker came from football powerhouse John Carroll University. Of course the converse is true, and players that come from big time programs aren't immune from bust-dom. See how former USC/Pac-10 great, top 10 overall pick WR Mike Williams less than illustrious pro career has unfolded thus far in this context (currently unemployed).

INSTINCTS AND FOOTBALL SMARTS

See SEA MLB Lofa Tatupu. Even if he may not test off the charts in terms of his measurables, he is such a great student of the game, adept at recognizing tendencies and able to process information and react quickly to it (the step where the brain tells the body to move) that he often is the first defender to the ball, helped by his almost unerring, Singletary-esque first step. Ex-Steelers QB Terry Bradshaw may have been in a world of hurt in a game of Scrabble, but he could find the open man and thread the needle on 40 yard passes.

CONSISTENCY AND MOTOR

Does a prospect play hard all the time, or just when they feel like it and it suits them. Do they consistently rack up productive numbers, or do they disappear for long stretches? Do they play like they are just going through the motions or like their hair is on fire? Do they fatigue and tire easily, or do they have the stamina, endurance and physical conditioning to be counted on the whole game and especially during crunch time. CLE fans should be very afraid of the motor and consistency of free agent interior DL Shaun Rogers, who has displayed a pattern in the past of sporadically and intermittently playing hard in bursts, surrounded by long stretches of taking downs off and coasting.

INTANGIBLES

Are they tough, hard workers, team players, leaders, passionate about the game, have a burning desire to be great and perform well in pressure situations? If these traits and attributes are important precursors to NFL success, prized rookie QB and third overall pick in the 2008 draft Matt Ryan of the Falcons looks like a keeper and could be a future star, based on an EXTREMELY impressive constellation of intangibles.

CHARACTER

Will they be banned from the league for multiple drug program violations (Odell Thurman), or end up in jail (Chris Henry)?

AGE

BAL MLB Ray Lewis and STL WR Torry Holt are rapidly approaching their mid-30s. They are elite athletes for their respective positions and take great care of their bodies, but how much longer can they realistically be expected to compete at a high level. Just as there is a body of knowledge about physical trait norms for different positions, there is similar information to draw on based on typical life-cycles and age spans of different positions (30 is usually old for a RB, middle aged for a WR and could be young for a QB). As with physical trait knowledge by position, so too with age, it helps to know the "rules" to be able to examine each situation on a case-by-case basis, and make better inferences and informed decisions on whether a given player is likely or not to "break the rules".

COMP PLAYERS

How is a prospect's constellation of traits similar to (and different from) NFL players that have come before them and who have succeeded (or failed). Look for patterns of success and failure in relative and respective skill sets. As you feed your internal network of prospect associations and connections through studying scouting profiles (and film breakdown), it becomes easier to trap new associations and connections within its expanding web, constantly morphing into one with greater discernment and more encompassing scope.

COLLATING MULTIPLE SCOUTING PROFILES AND RESOURCES

Try and cultivate good sources. Some of my favorites are the great work done by the FBG staff (shameless plug), Frank Coyle, Mike Mayock, Sporting News, PFW, USA Today, NFL.com, Scott Wright's Draft Countdown, etc. Lining up several profiles will give you a better sense of a player than just one, and can help correct cases of excess optimism or pessimism from individual scouts. It can also help in the process of discovering which scouts you come to find most accurate and which resources are most reliable and therefore worthy of being weighted more heavily in your overall evaluation. This process could have some kind of underlying structural parallel with the fact that you need at a minimum three monitoring stations to locate the epicenter and obtain precise magnitude information about an earthquake.

FILM/VIDEO HIGHLIGHTS

When dealing with young, unproven and unestablished players, this can be one of the absolute best tools for making sense of the bewildering array of scouting profiles (see above) on prospects, helping to place them in context, judge their closeness or distance from the mark and determine their relevance and relative usefulness. If a picture is worth a thousand words, video highlights have an immense, nearly incalculable power to augment and transcend words. Spending just a few minutes looking at the highlights of MIN RB Adrian Peterson and DET WR Calvin Johnson would have shown why scouts had been drooling over their NFL prospects for several years. There is literally no substitute for WITNESSING WITH YOUR OWN EYES a players explosiveness, separation, leaping ability, hands, open field moves, contact balance and tackle breaking power... OR, on defense, instincts, ability to get off blocks, range and tackling prowess. The NFL channels resident in-house scout, former NFL player and career coach/scout's son Mike Mayock does yeoman's work in breaking down film of incoming classes by position. Harking back to a prospect noted in the measurables section above, Keenan Burton flashed elite athleticism, explosive playmaking ability and a well rounded skill set on film, which bodes well for his future. Rookie ATL MLB Curtis Lofton's first step, instincts and open field tackling ability roars off the screen in his highlight package. Despite a lack of optimal physical tools, he could have a Lofa Tatupu-like impact and career because of compelling compensating factors in other, more important areas.

SCHEME-DRIVEN CONTEXT

Why is a DE usually more productive than a DT, a MLB or WLB more than a SLB and SS more than FS (see FBG John Norton's seminal work on IDP positions)? Sometimes a stud SLB such as Derrick Johnson or a CB like Antoine Winfield are more valuable than less talented options at sexier, more high profile positions (and in the best of both world, an athletic phenom like DJ could be poised for stardom with an anticipated switch to WLB). Different schemes can make certain positions ultra-productive or render them unstartable or even unrosterable. Attending closely to the reasons WHY can be the difference between chronically stumbling through drafts and leagues and dominating them. On a historically man-to-man coverage base defense like in OAK, up and coming CBs Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden could have average value, but in the IND Cover Two, they both have star potential.

TEAM FIT

How does a prospect's skill set mesh with his destination, and how does he fit into the team's future plans. Rookie CAR WLB/MLB Jon Beason was on the bonus plan last season, as he fit in two different ways. At first he was expected to step in right away at WLB (which was a huge need with the gaping hole left in the wake of Will Witherspoon's earlier departure to become the Rams MLB), and later groomed as the long term replacement for Dan Morgan at MLB. When it came to the hummingbird egg fragile and brittle Morgan (since retired), long term ended up being... IMMEDIATELY. From the middle, Beason put up numbers that compared favorably with the other consensus best LBs from the class of 2007. Rookie KC CB Brandon Flowers fits this category like a glove, and could be one of the top CBs and most productive DBs overall to emerge from the class of 2008.

STARTING STATUS

CAR CBs Chris Gamble, Ken Lucas and Richard Marshall are all quality players, but only two can start (though Marshall is talented enough to put up top 5-10 numbers even if he ends up as the nickel back... most observers thought he has been the teams best CB the past two season).

IN-SEASON STAT SPLITS

Breaking down the numbers in a more fine-grained manner can be one of the greatest tools for dissecting the potential of breakout prospects. Make it a habit and be comfortable moving in and out of larger and smaller time frames and data samples. As in the film technique of rapid freeze frames onto progressively smaller areas of the original field of vision or image (like the famous scene in Blade Runner), changing your vantage point and perspective can enable you to spot patterns that went unnoticed after the first pass, or over larger time frames. IND and TEN safeties Antoine Bethea and Michael Griffin had nice second half splits which could foreshadow bigger things in the near future.

CONTRACTS

Another layer and level of information unto itself which, if you have the eyes to see (and this is an acquired skill you can get better at), will help to decode and interpret which players are in a team's future plans and which aren't, and act as a skeleton key to unlock many positional battles which cut across the entire league.

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