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Positional, Age & Pedigree Matrix - Trailing Three Year Scoring Leaders

  Posted 8/18 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Ear to the Ground Preseason Summing Up - Changing of the Guard?

While this is ostensibly an IDP column (as well as an emphasis on Dynasty format), as has been noted before, there aren't too many DEFENSE-ONLY leagues, so it is a good exercise to keep your chops up in that domain, too. Below is a continuation of the counterpart defensive study, for offense. While tracking the subdivisions in the positional breakdowns was useful in that context (DE & DT, 4-3 & 3-4 DE, ILB & OLB, 4-3 MLB & 3-4 ILB, WLB, SLB & 3-4 OLB, S & CB, SS & FS), there aren't different kinds of QBs and in general other kinds of skill position subdivisions, so the positional breakdown has been omitted. The age and pedigree breakdowns (with interstitial commentary) have been retained. Hopefully they will prove helpful for dynasty purposes, whether in making better informed decisions in initial and subsequent rookie drafts, trades and free agent waiver wire pick ups. While some trends, such as RBs are old by 30 and first rounders are more likely to start and excel than 7th rounders and UFAs may seem like platitudes (they are), the hope here is to put any potential DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RESPECTIVE SKILL POSITIONS in terms of developmental curves and attrition rate in more stark contrast and bold relief, by making the age and pedigree breakdowns more quantitative, rigorous and therefor explicit.

It is always a good habit when examining the Top 10/20/30* for a given position (or whatever sample size you choose to put under the data-scope) to try and guesstimate who is legit and who is a pretender. Which skill position players are likely to remain in the final Top 10/20/30 standings at their respective positions, and who will be jettisoned? Which skill position players currently outside the Top 10/20/30 have a shot to penetrate it, and who will remain isolated outside?

Among other things, take care to track things like games played in this context, and also changes in team (entailing changes in scheme and surrounding talent), as well as starting status (including encroaching RBBC, in the case of the RB position). It is also hoped that the below breakdowns by age and pedigree will provide some clues in your research.

With twelve sets of rankings (Top 10 QBs, Top 20 RBs, Top 30 WRs & Top 10 TEs for '07, '06 & '05) containing ten pieces of information for each player ('07, '06 & '05 ranking, GP, name, NFL team, age, draft pedigree, college, height & weight), represents potentially several thousand data points tracked below (not counting the data mining section!) that can be rapidly scanned and assimilated (Borg-like)... actually there is overlap with some players appearing among the scoring leaders two or even three times for their respective positions (Chad Johnson displayed admirable consistency with two top 4 and one top 6 finish since 2005).

More fertile ground for data mining would be looking at measurables (for positional physical prototype info), as well as college pedigree (Div I, small school, etc.), but these will be left as a suggestion for further research and an exercise for the interested reader. Also, 40 times (not included here) can be instructive for positional breakdown, though also misleading at times.

You can also look at the age data and breakdown not only WITHIN a position to see where a certain positional player is likely to be in his learning curve (ramping up, peaking, cresting or twilight), but also to see if there are INTER-POSITIONAL differences... i.e. - do these developmental curves differ BETWEEN positions.

Are there differences in the Top 10/20/30 in terms of draft pick distribution across positions? And so on...

The intent below is to provide freeze framed images of a moving picture over the past three seasons... and to track and attempt explanation of some of the important changes in that time frame.

* The skill position players are broken down below into Top 10 QBs, Top 20 RBs, Top 30 WRs & Top 10 TEs ('07, '06 & '05) to yield one starting QB, two starting RBs, three starting WRs and one starting TE in a typical non-flex 10-team league. As with the method of focusing on top 20 DL/LB/DB in the previous study, DIFFERENCE MAKING RBs beyond top 20 and WRs beyond top 30 become increasingly hard to find.

2007 Quarterbacks - Top 10

'07 (& '06/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('07), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#7/#2) 16 - Tom Brady, NE, 30, 6.33, Michigan (6'4" 225)
  2. (#19/rookie backup) 16 - Tony Romo, DAL, 27, UFA, Eastern Illinois (6'2" 225)
  3. (#1/#3) 16 - Peyton Manning, IND, 31, 1.01, Tennessee (6'5" 230)
  4. (#2/#7) 16 - Drew Brees, NO, 28, 2.01, Purdue (6'0" 210)
  5. (#43/'06 rookie) 16 - Derek Anderson, CLE, 24, 6.39, Oregon State (6'6" 230)
  6. (#22/#4) 16 - Matt Hasselbeck, SEA, 32, 6.34, Boston College (6'4" 225)
  7. (#10/#18) 15 - Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 25, 1.11, Miami (OH) (6'5" 240)
  8. (#8/#14) 16 - Brett Favre, GB, 38, 2.06, Southern Mississippi (6'2" 220)
  9. (#5/#1) 16 - Carson Palmer, CIN, 26, 1.01, USC (6'5" 230)
  10. (#37/#22) 14 - Kurt Warner, ARI, 36, Grocery Stocker, Northern Iowa (6'2" 220)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of QBs from '06 Top 10 - 6 of 10

  • There was a lot of churning and turnover at the QB position around the league in 2007, even at the top.

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 QB... 454.6 - 269.3 = 185.3 pts

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 0
  • (24-26) - 3
  • (27-29) - 2
  • (30-32) - 3
  • (33-35) - 0
  • (36-38) - 2

Going in we might expect QBs to have the greatest longevity of the skill position players (along with WRs). However, playing longer isn't necessarily synonymous with playing at a high level. In 2007 just two Top 10 QBs were older than 32.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One (when this meant the first three rounds) - 5
  • Day Two - 3
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 2

An even split with 5 first day QBs and 5 non-first day QBs populating the Top 10. Poster children for QBs with humble origins excelling is include 6th rounder and future automatic first ballot HoFer Tom Brady, UFA Tony Romo at #2 QB and 6th rounder Derek Anderson finished #5 QB. It seems fair to suggest that QB is a position in which attributes and traits for success fall heavily into the nebulous category called intangibles, and scouts haven't had as much success recently identifying the elite talent at the QB position by means of the tests and drills measuring athleticism in the scouting process seemingly used to better effect at other positions (for instance, at RB and LB).

By Round

  • 1 - 3
  • 2 - 2
  • 3 - 0
  • 4 - 0
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 3
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 2

2006 Quarterbacks - Top 10

'06 (& '07/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#3/#3) 16 - Peyton Manning (see above) 30
  2. (#4/#7) 16 - Drew Brees (see above) 27
  3. (#23) 16 - Marc Bulger, STL, 29, 6.02, West Virginia (6'3" 210)
  4. (federal prison/#12) 16 - Michael Vick, ATL, 26, 1.01, Virginia Tech (6'1" 215)
  5. (#9/#1) 16 - Carson Palmer (see above) 25
  6. (#12/#73) 16 - Jon Kitna, DET, 34, UFA, Central Washington (6'2" 220)
  7. (#1/#2) 16 - Tom Brady (see above) 29
  8. (#8/#14) 16 - Brett Favre (see above) 37
  9. (#15/70) 16 - Philip Rivers, SD, 25, 1.04, North Carolina State (6'5" 230)
  10. (#7/#18) 15 - Ben Roethlisberger (see above) 24

Data Mining Section

Percentage of QBs from '05 Top 10 - 4 of 10

Even more churning at the top for the QB position (compared to 2007)

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 QB... 362.8 - 247.4 = 115.4 pts

The magnitude of Tom Brady's historic season can be seen in perspective.

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 0
  • (24-26) - 4
  • (27-29) - 2
  • (30-32) - 2
  • (33-35) - 1
  • (36-38) - 1

Again, just two QBs over 32 among the Top 10. Also again, no QBs less than 24.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 7
  • Day Two - 2
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

A more top heavy distribution this season of day one pedigree relative to day two.

By Round

  • 1 - 5
  • 2 - 2
  • 3 - 0
  • 4 - 0
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 2
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 1

No QBs from the 3rd-5th round in '06 or '07 (so far).

2005 Quarterbacks - Top 10

'05 (& '06/'07) Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age ('05), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#5/#9) 16 - Carson Palmer (see above) 24
  2. (#7/#1) 16 - Tom Brady (see above) 28
  3. (#1/#3) 16 - Peyton Manning (see above) 29
  4. (#22/#6) 16 - Matt Hasselbeck (see above) 30
  5. (#12/#14) 16 - Eli Manning, NYG, 24, 1.01, Mississippi (6'4" 225)
  6. (#35/retired) 16 - Drew Bledsoe, DAL, 33, 1.01, Washington State (6'5" 240)
  7. (#2/#4) 16 - Drew Brees (see above) 26
  8. (#36/#42) 16 - Trent Green, KC, 35, 8.26, Indiana (6'3" 215)
  9. (#52/#57) 15 - Kerry Collins, OAK, 33, 1.05, Penn State (6'5" 245)
  10. (retired) 16 - Jake Plummer, DEN, 31, 2.12, Arizona State (6'2" 210)

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 QB... 338 - 271 = 67 pts

Fairly compressed difference between QB1 and QB10, relative to '06 and '07.

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 0
  • (24-26) - 3
  • (27-29) - 2
  • (30-32) - 2
  • (33-35) - 3
  • (36-38) - 0

Three QBs over 32 among the Top 10 (after which they hit the wall, with Bledsoe retiring, Green succumbing to career-threatening concussions and Collins relegated to a backup role). Also again, no QBs less than 24.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 7
  • Day Two - 2
  • After 7th Round - 1

Identical top heavy distribution to that seen in '06 above, with both differing from '07.

By Round

  • 1 - 5
  • 2 - 2
  • 3 - 0
  • 4 - 0
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 2
  • 7 - 0
  • 8 - 1 (Green old enough to come from a draft with 7+ rounds)

Oddly, no QBs from the 3rd-5th round in '05, '06 or '07.

2007 Running Backs - Top 20

'07 (& '06/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('07), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#1/#3) 16 - LaDainian Tomlinson, SD, 28, 1.05, TCU (5'10" 220)
  2. (#6/#18) 15 - Brian Westbrook, PHI, 28, 3.26, Villanova (5'9" 205)
  3. ('07 rookie) 14 - Adrian Peterson, MIN, 22, 1.07, Oklahoma (6'0" 220)
  4. (#36/#6) 16 - Clinton Portis, WAS, 26, 2.19, Miami (5'11" 220)
  5. (#12/'06 rookie) 15 - Joseph Addai, IND, 24, 1.30, LSU (6'0" 205)
  6. (#16/#25) 15 - Jamal Lewis, CLE, 28, 1.05, Tennessee (6'0" 240)
  7. (#14/#35) 16 - Marion Barber, DAL, 24, 4.08, Minnesota (6'0" 220)
  8. (#26#13) 15 - Willis McGahee, BAL, 26, 1.23, Miami (6'0" 230)
  9. (#4/#38) 15 - Frank Gore, SF, 24, 3.01, Miami (5'10" 215)
  10. (#20/#5) 16 - Edgerrin James, ARI, 29, 1.04, Miami (6'0" 215)
  11. (#120/#118) 15 - Earnest Graham, TB, 27, UFA, Florida (5'9" 225)
  12. ('07 rookie) 13 - Marshawn Lynch, BUF, 21, 1.12, California (5'10" 225)
  13. (#8/'06 rookie) 15 - Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX, 22, 2.28, UCLA (5'8" 210)
  14. (#3/#11) 12 - Steven Jackson, STL, 24, 1.24, Oregon State (6'2" 230)
  15. (#71/'06 rookie) 16 - LenDale White, TEN, 22, 2.13, USC (6'2" :cough: 235 :cough:)
  16. (#5/#15) 15 - Willie Parker, PIT, 27, UFA, North Carolina (5'9" 210)
  17. ('07 rookie) 15 - Ryan Grant, GB, 25, UFA, Notre Dame (6'1" 220)
  18. (#18/#33) 15 - Fred Taylor, JAX, 31, 2.09, Florida (6'1" 225)
  19. (#61/IR) 16 - Kenny Watson, CIN, 29, UFA, Penn State (6'0" 220)
  20. (#37/'06 rookie) 11 - Brandon Jacobs, NYG, 25, 4.09, Southern Illinois (6'4" 265)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of RBs from '06 Top 20 - 10 of 20 (Tiki Barber retired)

  • Similar churning and turnover seen in the QB data above.

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 RB... 307.8 - 184.8 = 123 pts
  • #11 & #20 RB... 182.2 - 154.5 = 27.7 pts

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 4
  • (24-26) - 8
  • (27-29) - 7
  • (30-32) - 1
  • (33-35) - 0
  • (36-38) - 0

RB is notorious for having the least longevity among the skill position players. But they can also ramp up to a higher level of production sooner in some cases, given the more instinctive nature of the position. Unlike at QB, early breakthroughs in the 21-23 age bracket are routine. Production appears to fall off a cliff at 30 (this is of course a very limited data set). A diminishing return that could crop up from going TOO far back into the historical record in examining productivity relative to aging curves for the RB position is that the state of the art in sports medicine is far more advanced than it used to be. The prognosis for recovery from an ACL tear is probably a lot better than it was 10-20 years ago. With three elite RBs in the Top 20 still playing at a high level at 28 (LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook and Larry Johnson), the shape of the age demographic at the position could be tilting in an upward direction in the next few seasons.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 14
  • Day Two - 2
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 4

Marion Barber and Brandon Jacobs were the only non-day one picks among the 16 non-UFA RBs in the Top 20!

By Round

  • 1 - 8
  • 2 - 4
  • 3 - 2
  • 4 - 2
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 0
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 4

Pedigree weighs heavily in this distribution... far more so than seen at the QB position above (especially in '07). More than twice as many day one picks as the day two/UFA group COMBINED.

2006 Running Backs

'06 (& '07/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#1/#3) 16 - LaDainian Tomlinson (see above) 27
  2. (#40 - 8 games/#2) 16 - Larry Johnson, KC, 27, 1.27, Penn State (6'1" 230)
  3. (#14/11) 16 - Steven Jackson (see above) 23
  4. (#9/#38) 16 - Frank Gore (see above) 23
  5. (#16/#15) 16 - Willie Parker (see above) 26
  6. (#2/#18) 15 - Brian Westbrook (see above) 27
  7. (retired/#4) 16 - Tiki Barber, NYG, 31, 2.06, Virginia (5'10" 195)
  8. (#13/'06 rookie) 16 - Maurice Jones-Drew (see above) 21
  9. (#47 - 11 games/#7) 16 - Rudi Johnson, CIN, 27, 4.05, Auburn (5'10" 215)
  10. (IR/#54) 15 - Deuce McAllister, NO, 28, 1.23, Mississippi (6'1" 230)
  11. (#54/#59) 16 - Ladell Betts, WAS, 27, 2.24, Iowa (5'11" 225)
  12. (#5/'06 rookie) 16 - Joseph Addai (see above) 23
  13. (#21/#43) 15 - Chester Taylor, MIN, 27, 6.35, Toledo (5'11" 215)
  14. (#7/#35) 16 - Marion Barber (see above) 23
  15. (#62 - 6 games/#70) 14 - Ahman Green, HOU, 29, 3.15, Nebraska (6'0" 220)
  16. (#6/#25) 16 - Jamal Lewis (see above) 27
  17. (#24/'06 rookie) 16 - Reggie Bush, NO, 22, 1.02, USC (6'0" 205)
  18. (#18/#33) 15 - Fred Taylor (see above) 30
  19. (retired/#16) - Corey Dillon, NE, 32, 2.13, Washington (6'1" 225)
  20. (#10/#5) 16 - Edgerrin James (see above) 28

Data Mining Section

Percentage of RBs from '05 Top 20 - 9 of 20

  • Similarly high churn rate (as in 2007, QB AND RB)

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 RB... 427.4 - 191.9 = 235.5 pts
  • #11 & #20 RB... 189.9 - 173.6 = 16.3 pts

Similar to Tom Brady's record-shattering season at QB in '07, LT had a historic year in '06.

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 6
  • (24-26) - 1
  • (27-29) - 10
  • (30-32) - 3
  • (33-35) - 0
  • (36-38) - 0

Unlike in '07, there were THREE RBs in the 30+ age brackets. Two retired (Tiki Barber and Corey Dillon), offering a cautionary tale.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 16
  • Day Two - 3
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

Still skewed to the extreme towards day one pedigree at the RB position. 2007 FBG Magazine cover boy Willie Parker (UFA) and Marion Barber have been notable and conspicuous exceptions that proves the rule in this context for the past two seasons.

By Round

  • 1 - 9
  • 2 - 4
  • 3 - 3
  • 4 - 2
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 1
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 1

2005 Running Backs

'05 (& '06/'07) Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age (in '05), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#28/#35) 16 - Shaun Alexander, SEA, 28, 1.19, Alabama (5'11" 230)
  2. (#2/#40) 16 - Larry Johnson (see above) 26
  3. (#1/#1) 16 - LaDainian Tomlinson (see above) 26
  4. (#7/retired) 16 - Tiki Barber (see above) 30
  5. (#20/#10) 15 - Edgerrin James, IND (see above) 27
  6. (#4/#36) 16 - Clinton Portis (see above) 24
  7. (#9/#47) 16 - Rudi Johnson (see above) 26
  8. (#55/#41) 14 - LaMont Jordan, OAK, 27, 2.18, Maryland (5'10" 230)
  9. (#21/#22) 15 - Thomas Jones, CHI, 27, 1.07, Virginia (5'10" 215)
  10. (#72/#123) 15 - Mike Anderson, DEN, 32, 6.23, Utah (6'0" 230)
  11. (#3/#14) 15 - Steven Jackson (see above) 22
  12. (#24/#30) 16 - Warrick Dunn, ATL, 30, 1.12, Florida State (5'9" 180)
  13. (#26/#8) 16 - Willis McGahee (see above) 24
  14. (#34/#51) 16 - Reuben Droughns, CLE, 27, 3.19, Oregon (5'11" 220)
  15. (#5/#16) 15 - Willie Parker (see above) 25
  16. (#19/retired) 12 - Corey Dillon (see above) 31
  17. (injured/out of football) 11 - Domanick Williams, HOU, 25, 4.04, LSU (5'9" 220)
  18. (#6/#2) 12 - Brian Westbrook (see above) 26
  19. (#39/#73) 14 - Cadillac Williams, TB, 23, 1.05, Auburn (5'11" 215)
  20. (#95/#45) 15 - Chris Brown, TEN, 24, 3.29, Colorado (6'3" 220)

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 RB... 364 - 201 = 163 pts
  • #11 & #20 RB... 197 - 160 = 37 pts

Alexander has become a shell of his 2005 self in the past two seasons, offering more caution over RBs at or fast approaching 30.

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 2
  • (24-26) - 9
  • (27-29) - 5
  • (30-32) - 4
  • (33-35) - 0
  • (36-38) - 0

FOUR RBs in the 30+ age brackets, but most here were quickly gone (see above).

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 16
  • Day Two - 3
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

Identical distribution to '06 above. Pedigree weighs heavily here, too.

By Round

  • 1 - 9
  • 2 - 4
  • 3 - 3
  • 4 - 2
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 1
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 1

2007 Wide Receivers

'07 (& '06/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('07), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#58/#15) 16 - Randy Moss, NE, 30, 1.21, Marshall (6'4" 210)
  2. (#2/#32) 15 - Terrell Owens, DAL, 33, 3.28, Tennessee-Chattanooga (6'3" 225)
  3. (#26/#59) 16 - Braylon Edwards, CLE, 24, 1.03, Michigan (6'3" 210)
  4. (#3/#21) 16 - Reggie Wayne, IND, 29, 1.30, Miami (6'0" 200)
  5. (#24/#2) 15 - Larry Fitzgerald, ARI, 24, 1.03, Pittsburgh (6'3" 225)
  6. (#4/#4) 16 - Chad Johnson, CIN, 29, 2.05, Oregon State (6'1" 190)
  7. (#11/#14) 16 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN, 30, 7.04, Oregon State (6'1" 200)
  8. (#14/'06 rookie) 16 - Marques Colston, NO, 24, 7.44, Hofstra (6'4" 230)
  9. (#89/'06 rookie) 16 - Brandon Marshall, DEN, 23, 4.22, Central Florida (6'4" 230)
  10. (#12/#11) 16 - Plaxico Burress, NYG, 30, 1.08, Michigan State (6'5" 230)
  11. (#57/#86) 16 - Wes Welker, NE, 26, UFA, Texas Tech (5'9" 185)
  12. (#54/'06 rookie) 13 - Greg Jennings, GB, 24, 2.20, Western Michigan (5'11" 195)
  13. (#5/#6) 16 - Torry Holt, STL, 31, 1.06, North Carolina State (6'1" 195)
  14. (#80/#64) 16 - Roddy White, ATL, 26, 1.27, UAB (6'0" 210)
  15. (#97/#40) 16 - Bobby Engram, SEA, 34, 2.22, Penn State (5'10" 190)
  16. (#8/#1) 15 - Steve Smith, CAR, 28, 3.12, Utah (5'9" 185)
  17. (#60/#27) 16 - Kevin Curtis, PHI, 29, 3.10, Utah State (6'0" 185)
  18. (#41/'06 rookie) 13 - Santonio Holmes, PIT, 23, 1.25, Ohio St. (5'11" 190)
  19. (#17/#8) 12 - Anquan Boldin, ARI, 27, 2.22, Florida St. (6'1" 215)
  20. (#49/#24) 16 - Derrick Mason, BAL, 33, 4.02, Michigan State (5'10" 190)
  21. (#15/#5) 15 - Joey Galloway, TB, 36, 1.08, Ohio State (5'11" 195)
  22. (#18/#47) 9 - Andre Johnson, HOU, 26, 1.03, Miami (6'3" 220)
  23. (#109/#76) 16 - Shaun McDonald, DET, 26, 4.09, Arizona St. (5'10" 180)
  24. ('07 rookie) 16 - Dwayne Bowe, KC, 23, 1.23, LSU (6'2" 220)
  25. (#23/#105) 15 - Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ, 25, 4.12, North Carolina State (6'0" 205)
  26. (#32/#101) 16 - Bernard Berrian, CHI, 26, 3.15, Fresno State (6'1" 185)
  27. (#102/#93) 16 - Nate Burleson, SEA, 26, 3.07, Nevada (6'0" 200)
  28. (#46/#85) 15 - Reggie Williams, JAX, 24, 1.09, Washington (6'4" 215)
  29. (#37/#7) 16 - Chris Chambers, SD, 29, 2.21, Wisconsin (5'11" 210)
  30. (#6/#13) 15 - Donald Driver, GB, 32, 7.07, Alcorn State (6'0" 190)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of WRs from '06 Top 30 - 17 of 30

  • Similar in churning and turnover rate numbers to the RBs above.

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 WR... 287.3 - 174.5 = 112.8 pts
  • #11 & #20 WR... 168.9 - 138.7 = 30.2 pts
  • #21 & #30 WR... 137.5 - 117.2 = 20.3 pts

Like with record breaking seasons turned in by LT in '06 and Brady in '07, Moss also turned in a historic season. Of course it probably wasn't an accident that Brady and Moss did so well at their respective positions. Moss was a huge part of the scoring outburst Brady enjoyed, just as Brady has been an integral part of the scoring explosion by Moss. Their success also reflects very positively on the Patriots OL.

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 3
  • (24-26) - 12
  • (27-29) - 6
  • (30-32) - 5
  • (33-35) - 3
  • (36-38) - 1

WR probably more QB-like than RB-like in terms of longevity. In the first age bracket we see more WRs than QBs, but not as many as RB, so it would seem to be more intermediate on the scale of degree in difficulty of transitioning from college to the NFL. Based on above data, in this instance, they aged best among the skill position players.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 22
  • Day Two - 7
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

The pedigree distribution is not as skewed as heavily towards day one picks as with the RBs, and is more like seen above at QB (in '05 & '06... day one/two pedigree evenly distributed in '07).

By Round

  • 1 - 12
  • 2 - 5
  • 3 - 5
  • 4 - 4
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 0
  • 7 - 3
  • UFA - 1

Still, 26 of 29 non-UFA WRs (Wes Welker an outlier as the lone UFA) taken no lower than the 4th round.

2006 Wide Receivers

'06 (& '07/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#100 - 5 games/#9) 16 - Marvin Harrison, IND, 34, 1.19, Syracuse (6'0" 185)
  2. (#2/#32) 16 - Terrell Owens (see above) 32
  3. (#4/#21) 16 - Reggie Wayne (see above) 28
  4. (#6/#4) 16 - Chad Johnson (see above) 28
  5. (#13/#6) 16 - Torry Holt (see above) 30
  6. (#30/#13) 16 - Donald Driver (see above) 31
  7. (#32/#29) 16 - Lee Evans, BUF, 25, 1.13, Wisconsin (5'10" 195)
  8. (#16/#1) 14 - Steve Smith (see above) 27
  9. (#105 - 8 games/#155 - 1 game) 16 - Javon Walker, DEN, 28, 1.20, Florida St. (6'3" 215)
  10. (#33 - 12 games/#30) 16 - Roy Williams, DET, 25, 1.07, Texas (6'2" 220)
  11. (#7/#14) 14 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (see above) 29
  12. (#10/#11) 15 - Plaxico Burress (see above) 29
  13. (#68/#63 - 6 games) 13 - Darrell Jackson, SF, 28, 3.18, Florida (5'11" 205)
  14. (#8/'06 rookie) 14 - Marques Colston (see above) 23
  15. (#21/#5) 16 - Joey Galloway (see above) 35
  16. (#39 - 11 games/#31) 16 - Laveranues Coles, NYJ, 29, 3.16, Florida State (5'11" 195)
  17. (#19 - 12 games/#8) 16 - Anquan Boldin (see above) 26
  18. (#22 - 9 games/#47) 16 - Andre Johnson (see above) 25
  19. (#65/no receptions) 16 - Mike (Fabulous) Furrey (Freak Bros.), DET, 30, UFA, Northern Iowa (6'0" 185)
  20. (knee injury/#12) 16 - Terry Glenn, DAL, 32, 1.07, Ohio St. (5'10" 185)
  21. (#38/#48) 16 - Reggie Brown, PHI, 25, 2.03, Georgia (6'1" 200)
  22. (#31 - 13 games/#10) 14 - Hines Ward, PIT, 30, 3.31, Georgia (6'0" 205)
  23. (#25/#105) 16 - Jerricho Cotchery (see above) 24
  24. (#5/#2) 13 - Larry Fitzgerald (see above) 23
  25. (#41 - 14 games/#58) 16 - Isaac Bruce, STL, 34, 2.04, Memphis (6'0" 190)
  26. (#3/#59) 16 - Braylon Edwards (see above) 23
  27. (#40 - 14 games/#3) 14 - Santana Moss, WAS, 27, 1.16, Miami (5'10" 200)
  28. (#77/#61) 16 - Mark Clayton, BAL, 24, 1.22, Oklahoma (5'10" 195)
  29. (#133 - 8 games/#18) 16 - Eddie Kennison, KC, 33, 1.18, LSU (6'0" 195)
  30. (#62/#37) 16 - Muhsin Muhammad, CHI, 33, 2.13, Michigan St. (6'2" 215)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of WRs from '05 Top 30 - 17 of 30

  • Identical to number of '07 Top 30 WRs from '06.

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 WR... 208.6 - 173.2 = 35.4 pts
  • #11 & #20 WR... 162.7 - 141.8 = 20.9 pts
  • #21 & #30 WR... 140 - 116.3 = 23.7 pts

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 3
  • (24-26) - 7
  • (27-29) - 9
  • (30-32) - 6
  • (33-35) - 5
  • (36-38) - 0

Similar to the distribution from the '07 Top 30 WR data.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 25
  • Day Two - 4
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

A more top heavy mix of high pedigree WRs emerged from the '06 standings.

By Round

  • 1 - 15
  • 2 - 5
  • 3 - 5
  • 4 - 1
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 0
  • 7 - 3
  • UFA - 1

2005 Wide Receivers

'05 (& '06/'07) Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age (in '05), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#8/#16) 16 - Steve Smith (see above) 26
  2. (#24/#5) 16 - Larry Fitzgerald (see above) 22
  3. (#27/#40) 16 - Santana Moss (see above) 26
  4. (#4/#6) 16 - Chad Johnson (see above) 27
  5. (#15/#21) 16 - Joey Galloway (see above) 34
  6. (#5/#13) 14 - Torry Holt (see above) 29
  7. (#37/#29) 16 - Chris Chambers (see above) 27
  8. (#17/#19) 14 - Anquan Boldin (see above) 25
  9. (#1/#100) 15 - Marvin Harrison (see above) 33
  10. (#22/#31) 15 - Hines Ward (see above) 29
  11. (#12/#10) 16 - Plaxico Burress (see above) 28
  12. (#20/knee injury) 16 - Terry Glenn (see above) 31
  13. (#6/#30) 16 - Donald Driver (see above) 30
  14. (#11/#7) 14 - T.J. Houshmandzadeh (see above) 28
  15. (#58/#1) 16 - Randy Moss (see above) 28
  16. (#61/retired) 16 - Rod Smith, DEN, 35, UFA, Missouri Southern State (6'0" 205)
  17. (#88/#99) 16 - Keenan McCardell, SD, 35, 12.20, UNLV (6'1" 190)
  18. (#29/#133) 16 - Eddie Kennison (see above) 32
  19. (retired) 16 - Jimmy Smith, JAX, 36, 2.08, Jackson State (6'1" 210)
  20. (#36/#49) 16 - Donte' Stallworth, NO, 25, 1.13, Tennessee (6'0" 200)
  21. (#3/#4) 16 - Reggie Wayne (see above) 27
  22. (#39 - 14 games/#48 - 11 games) 16 - Deion Branch, NE, 26, 2.33, Louisville (5'9" 190)
  23. (#63 - 13 games/#56) 16 - Joe Jurevicius, SEA, 31, 2.25, Penn State (6'5" 230)
  24. (#49/#20) 16 - Derrick Mason (see above) 31
  25. (#42/unemployed) 16 - Antonio Bryant, CLE, 24, 2.31, Pittsburgh (6'2" 190)
  26. (#155 - 4 games/#37) 16 - Jerry Porter, OAK, 27, 2.16, West Virginia (6'2" 220)
  27. (#60/#17) 16 - Kevin Curtis (see above) 27
  28. (#35/retired) 16 - Keyshawn Johnson, DAL, 33, 1.01, USC (6'4" 210)
  29. (#7/#32) 16 - Lee Evans (see above) 24
  30. (#10/#33) 13 - Roy Williams (see above) 24

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 WR... 237 - 165 = 72 pts
  • #11 & #20 WR... 163 - 137 = 26 pts
  • #21 & #30 WR... 136 - 117 = 19 pts

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 1
  • (24-26) - 8
  • (27-29) - 10
  • (30-32) - 5
  • (33-35) - 5
  • (36-38) - 1

Similar to the distribution from the '06 & '07 Top 30 WR data.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 25
  • Day Two - 4
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

A similarly top heavy mix of high pedigree WRs emerged from the '05 standings as in '06 & '07.

By Round

  • 1 - 14
  • 2 - 8
  • 3 - 3
  • 4 - 1
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 0
  • 7 - 2
  • After 7th Round -1
  • UFA -1

2007 Tight Ends

'07 (& '06/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('07), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#12/#6) 16 - Jason Witten, DAL, 25, 3.05, Tennessee, (6'5" 265)
  2. (#1/#1) 16 - Antonio Gates, SD, 27, UFA, Kent State (6'4" 260)
  3. (#3/#7) 16 - Tony Gonzalez, KC, 31, 1.13, California (6'4" 245)
  4. (#6/Evel Knievel impersonation) 16 - Kellen Winslow, CLE, 24, 1.06, Miami (6'4" 250)
  5. (#15/#13) 15 - Dallas Clark, IND, 27, 1.24, Iowa (6'3" 255)
  6. (#5/#4) 16 - Chris Cooley, WAS, 25, 3.18, Utah State (6'3" 265)
  7. (#13/#11) 16 - Heath Miller, PIT, 25, 1.30, Virginia (6'5" 255)
  8. (#14/'06 rookie) 16 - Owen Daniels, HOU, 25, 4.01, Wisconsin (6'3" 245)
  9. (#55/#24) 15 - Donald Lee, GB, 27, 5.21, Mississippi State (6'4" 250)
  10. (#20/'06 rookie) 15 - Tony Scheffler, DEN, 24, 2.29, Western Michigan (6'5" 250)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of TEs from '06 Top 10 - 6 of 10

  • Churning and turnover/attrition rates (falling out of top 10, in this instance) similar to those seen at QB, RB and WRs positions above.

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 TE... 156.5 - 84.9 = 71.6 pts

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 0
  • (24-26) - 6
  • (27-29) - 3
  • (30-32) - 1
  • (33-35) - 0
  • (36-38) - 0

Not a lot of great "old" TEs (Tony Gonzalez excepted), so perhaps more RB-like than WR-like. Like RBs, they suffer more collisions than WRs (& QBs) in the run game, because of their more extensive use as blockers. To the extent TEs are used in more of a receiving specialist role, this could impact positively on their longevity expectations. On the other hand, there were no TEs in first age bracket (as at QB position), so it seems to take a few years to get up to speed... possibly to physically mature and block well enough to see the field more than just situationally.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 7
  • Day Two - 2
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

Significantly tilted towards higher pedigree TEs in the Top 10.

By Round

  • 1 - 4
  • 2 - 1
  • 3 - 2
  • 4 - 1
  • 5 - 1
  • 6 - 0
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 1

More than twice as many day one TEs as the day two/UFA remainders combined. The lone UFA is a distinguished one... #1 TE Antonio Gates.

2006 Tight Ends

'06 (& '07/'05) Rank, GP, Name, NFL Team, Age ('06), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#2/#1) 16 - Antonio Gates (see above) 26
  2. (#15 - 14 games/#5) 16 - Alge Crumpler, ATL, 29, 2.04, North Carolina (6'2" 260)
  3. (#3/#7) 15 - Tony Gonzalez (see above) 30
  4. (#38 - 6 games/#3) 16 - Todd Heap, BAL, 26, 1.31, Arizona State (6'4" 250)
  5. (#6/#4) 16 - Chris Cooley (see above) 24
  6. (#4/knee injury) 16 - Kellen Winslow (see above) 23
  7. (#11 - 14 games/#2) 15 - Jeremy Shockey, NYG, 26, 1.14, Miami (6'5" 250)
  8. (#12/#29) 16 - Desmond Clark, CHI, 29, 6.10, Wake Forest (6'3" 250)
  9. (#39 - 10 games/#9) 16 - L.J. Smith, PHI, 26, 2.29, Rutgers (6'3" 260)
  10. (#13 - 12 games/#15) 13 - Ben Watson, 26, 1.32, Georgia (6'3" 255)

Data Mining Section

Percentage of TEs from '05 Top 10 - 7 of 10

  • Less churning at the top, relative to other years and positions.

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 TE... 146.4 - 83.7 = 62.7 pts

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 1
  • (24-26) - 6
  • (27-29) - 2
  • (30-32) - 1
  • (33-35) - 0
  • (36-38) - 0

Similar pattern to the '07 TE data, with one TE in the first age bracket this time, and again only one 30+ TE (Tony Gonzalez in both cases).

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 8
  • Day Two - 1
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

The massive disparity of day one picks at the top is a pronounced and recurring theme.

By Round

  • 1 - 5
  • 2 - 2
  • 3 - 1
  • 4 - 0
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 1
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 1

Just one day two pick.

2005 Tight Ends

'05 (& '06/'07) Rank, Name, NFL Team, Age (in '05), Draft Pedigree, College, Height & Weight

  1. (#1/#2) 15 - Antonio Gates (see above) 25
  2. (#7/#11) 15 - Jeremy Shockey (see above) 25
  3. (#4/#38) 16 - Todd Heap (see above) 25
  4. (#5/#6) 16 - Chris Cooley (see above) 23
  5. (#2/#15) 16 - Alge Crumpler, ATL, 28, 2.04, North Carolina (6'2" 260)
  6. (#12/#1) 16 - Jason Witten (see above) 23
  7. (#3/#3) 16 - Tony Gonzalez (see above) 29
  8. (#11/#17) 16 - Randy McMichael, MIA, 26, 4.16, Georgia (6'3" 255)
  9. (#9/#39) 16 - L.J. Smith (see above) 26
  10. (#21/#27) 16 - Jerramy Stevens, SEA, 26, 1.28, Washington (6'7" 260)

Data Mining Section

Difference Between

  • #1 & #10 TE... 170 - 85 = 85 pts

Age Breakdown

  • (21-23) - 2
  • (24-26) - 6
  • (27-29) - 2
  • (30-32) - 0
  • (33-35) - 0
  • (36-38) - 0

Two TEs in the first age bracket this time, and none in the 30+ group.

Pedigree Breakdown

  • Day One - 8
  • Day Two - 1
  • Undrafted Free Agent - 1

Disparity of day one picks at the top continues unabated.

By Round

  • 1 - 4
  • 2 - 2
  • 3 - 2
  • 4 - 1
  • 5 - 0
  • 6 - 0
  • 7 - 0
  • UFA - 1

Once again, pedigree figures prominently at the TE position, with just one day two pick.

* FBG YTD stats (2005, 2006 & 2007) by Dodds used above.

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