Ear To the Ground - Week 9

  Posted 10/30 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

"The cosmos speaks in patterns" - Roger von Oech (paraphrase of Heraclitus)

"Luck is the residue of design" - Branch Rickey (Brooklyn Dodgers GM - integrated baseball)

"Our business is winning" - Bill Parcells (Ex-Giants/Patriots/Jets/Cowboys HC, MIA grocery picker and future HoFer)

The subject matter of ETTG is IDP with an emphasis on Dynasty leagues. Ear To The Ground was chosen for this column's title to convey a sense of detecting rumblings in the distance... an ability essential to project a prospect from college to pro and rookie to veteran. It will consist of three sections: Team Reports (Watchlist), a Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter and an IDP Spotlight. The emphasis here will be on the impact positions of LB, DE and S... exceptional DTs and CBs will be noted for leagues that differentiate DE/DT and S/CB. Dynasty content is geared towards youth. Like most successful working rosters that employ a blend of production and potential, there will be a balance of rookie and veteran coverage in the mix. While by the nature of much IDP coverage new names will bubble up to the surface from week to week, ETTG will try to identify key players early on and provide a synoptic overview for the whole season as it unfolds.

Welcome to season number five of ETTG, and best of luck this season (but see the middle quote that heads this column above)...

Team Reports

Atlanta

Rookie MLB Curtis Lofton is one of the early co-favorites for DROY (especially with Bengals WLB Keith Rivers down for the year), and augmented his 3 solo box score with the first sack of his career as well as a FF. DE Jamaal Anderson is having a delayed reaction breakout with his second sack of the season (after a troubling and discouraging sackless rookie year), but his status for Sunday is uncertain after suffering a concussion.

Carolina

Wk. 9 Bye... Brilliant soph sensation MLB Jon Beason co-led the defense with a 7-1 box score (with CB Chris Gamble), including a pivotal Kurt Warner INT in which he flashed his prodigious athleticism with a 40+ yard return. Gamble has been on fire in 2008, and is making himself a TON of money if the big cats improbably let him escape through free agency. It would be somewhat of a surprise (and disappointment) if CAR doesn't look to re-up him soon.

Chicago

BYE

Cincinnati

DOH! (one of two winless teams)

Cleveland

The Browns have had an extremely up and down season but prevailed against a depleted Jaguars lineup. NT Shaun Rogers (9 solos & 1 sack) is not a name you would generally expect to see atop the box score, but he brought his A game Sunday. ILB D'Qwell Jackson (7-2 & 1/2 sack) continues to rack up tackles and barring injury is well on his way to easily the best season of his young career. He has underrated feet and athleticism and should get nothing but better. The high profile DL upgrades (Rogers being the biggest) are no doubt contributing to his anticipated breakout. The Browns missed SS Sean Jones (5-1) earlier in the season with a knee injury. He is one of the better young up and coming safeties in the game and his extended absence may have had more to do with the team's general defensive funk than some realize. Jones' presence also helps FS Brodney Pool, who turned in a solid effort with 4 solos and 1 sack.

Dallas

After losing three of the previous four games (including an unimpressive, listless win against the winless Bengals, and getting roughed up the prior week by the at the time 1-4 Rams), this was a must win situation for HC Wade Phillips, and his charges took care of business, holding the Bucs to three FGs. The Cowboys stop unit may need to be similarly stingy this week, as QB Tony Romo isn't expected back until after the bye (at least Romo has a nice new target in WR Roy Williams opposite TO awaiting him once he returns). This could prove difficult as they square off in the octagon against the defending Super Bowl champ Giants this week in a highly anticipated divisional tilt, and an already depleted secondary (CB Terence Newman is injured, CB Pacman Jones has been suspended indefinitely and SS Roy Williams is done for the year after breaking his arm for the second time) could be further weakened as CB Anthony Henry is now hobbled. BTW, Pro Bowl OLB DeMarcus Ware failed to generate a sack, and therefore his quest to break the NFL record for consecutive games with a sack (which he tied the previous week) hit the reset button.

Denver

BYE

Detroit

DOH! (one of two winless teams)

Green Bay

BYE

Houston

As noted earlier in the week by Aaron Rudnicki, LB Zach Diles (7-5) is shockingly the leading tackler for the Texans, passing up MLB DeMeco Ryans (1-2), one of the most prolific tacklers in the league in his inaugural two seasons. Likely CB Dunta Robinson was expected to round into game form slowly after returning from a catastrophic knee injury, but he had a monster game with 9 tackles (including 7 solos) and 1 INT. He is highly respected within the organization for having an exceptional work ethic, and it is possible that with diligent rehab he has returned better and faster than expected. Robinson is well worth tracking closely if improbably available in deeper leagues.

Indianapolis

The Colts have probably dug themselves an insurmountable hole in the AFC South "race" (for historical context, no team has come from four games back since the merger). The biggest news of the week revolved around the secondary. Ascendant CB Marlin Jackson landed on IR, on the heels of bookend Kelvin Hayden suffering a recent knee injury (diminutive CB Tim Jennings will have to pick up the slack). Not a moment too soon, HC Tony Dungy announced that SS Bob Sanders (and reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year) is expected back this week, but it is unclear how limited or rusty he will be. This last development should send interim SS Melvin Bullitt back to the bench. MLB Gary Bracket was all over the field in the losing MNF divisional tilt against the Titans, and SLB Clint Session also flashed impressive range. WLB Freddie Keiaho (one of this week's IDP Spotlights below) is hovering around the top 30, has managed to stay healthier than in his 2007 starting debut campaign, and remains a solid LB3 option with upside.

Jacksonville

MLB Mike Peterson had his biggest game of the year with 10 solos, but it came in a losing cause. Prized rookie DEs Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are not contributing as much as had been hoped before the season (Harvey's longest-in-class holdout in particular has really held him back and stunted his development) and it is having a profoundly negative impact on the defensive and overall bottom line.

Kansas City

Highly touted rookie CB Brandon Flowers (5-3) had his long awaited breakout game, highlighted by 2 INTs, the second of which went for a 90 yd. TD return that nearly toppled the Jets in improbable fashion (later rescued by a late Brett Favre TD pass snared one handed by Laveranues Coles with about a minute left on the clock). He almost brought a FR back all the way earlier in the season and the kid is a playmaker with a latent multitalented skill set waiting to be tapped and fully unleashed. SS Bernard Pollard (7-2) led the way and doesn't look ready to cede his job (there have been rumblings that Pollard or FS Jarrad Page could lose time to rookie 3rd round safety DaJuan Morgan). Less publicized but equally effective rookie CB Brandon Carr (6-1) had another productive game. Likewise for WLB Derrick Johnson (6-1 & 1 FF). Struggling DE Tamba Hali showed signs of life with 5 solos and 1 sack (his first of the season).

Minnesota

BYE

New England

DE Richard Seymour (7 solos & 1 sack) had an injury-plagued 2007 season, but has returned with a vengeance and is a big reason the Patriots are leading the AFC East and in contention to defend their divisional crown despite losing league MVP Tom Brady in week one. OLB Adalius Thomas (4-3) was instrumental in a close win against the suddenly feisty Rams, with 2 sacks. A big question mark the rest of the way is how an already thin and inexperienced secondary will respond and fare without Pro Bowl SS Rodney Harrison (who is not only done for the season, but may have suffered a career-ending injury). ILB Jerod Mayo (1-5) may be hitting the proverbial rookie wall, and is losing ground in this column's DROY meter to the surging DE Chris Long.

New Orleans

Wk. 9 Bye... The annual international extravaganza was a battle of shell shocked defenses (the Saints have been giving up a ghastly amount of points in their WINS... with the 32 they gave up in a narrow victory Sunday putting an exclamation point on this disturbing factoid), a huge reason the Saints and Chargers have struggled to 4-4 and 3-5 seasons, respectively, despite prolific offenses. The Saints QB Drew Brees is on pace to challenge Dan Marino's passing yardage record (and the Chargers QB Phillip Rivers for nearly 40 passing TDs). Though NO has been wildly erratic on defense overall, MLB Jonathan Vilma (9 solos & 1 INT) is having a banner year, and easily his best season since leading the league in tackles just three seasons ago. The defense has been bit hard by the injury bug, with SS Roman Harper missing time early, coveted rookie DT Sedrick Ellis down for a stretch with a knee injury and good looking CB Tracy Porter relegated to IR after a wrist injury. Also of note this week, it was reported that starting DEs Charles Grant and Will Smith could be facing one month suspensions (which certainly wouldn't help an already crumbling and disintegrating stop unit), though HC Gary Payton expressed guarded optimism that they would be exonerated by the league office.

New York (Giants)

DE Justin Tuck had another big game (4-1 & 1 sack), but bookend Mathias Kiwanuka was the biggest difference maker in the game with a Defensive Player of the Week type of performance (3-2, 3 sacks & 1 FF). They helped pressure PIT QB Ben Roethlisberger into a 4 INT clunker. The Giants are midseason favorites to defend their NFC Championship and Super Bowl crowns.

New York (Jets)

Good looking rookie CB Dwight Lowery paced Gang Green with an 8-2 box score. He is inching up in the Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter (see below). Safety Kerry Rhodes (8-1) had an IDP outburst, and time will tell if it is more aberration or trend (with the smart money on the former unless he begins to be schemed differently by HC Eric Mangini).

Pittsburgh

OLB James Harrison has been a big play machine this season (along with bookend LaMarr Woodley), but made the highlights for the wrong reason Sunday. In his capacity as backup long snapper, he fired a moon shot over the punter and through the Steelers end zone for a game tying safety in a bitterly contested battle against the Giants, who proceeded to march down the field soon after for the game winning TD.

San Diego

Wk. 9 Bye... The Chargers have become a defensive wasteland, especially their justly maligned secondary, though FS Eric Weddle is among the IDP leaders at DB (he narrowly missed his second INT of the season). The defense failed to get a sack or INT, despite Saints QB Drew Brees spraying the ball all over the field with impunity for 339 yards and 3 TDs.

San Francisco

Wk. 9 Bye... CB Nate Clements has been doing a disappearing act this season worthy of a world class conjurer. Manny Lawson had a big game (7-2 & 1 sack) but needs to be more consistent.

Seattle

The Seahawks not only got a rare win in HC Mike Holmgren's farewell season (he was supposed to ride off into the sunset but his horse has spit the bit), but pounded the 49ers in their first post-Nolan era game, much to the chagrin of new HC Mike Singletary, who based on Sunday, will be coaching as angry as he played. Pro Bowl DE Patrick Kerney had a sack and FF, but could miss this week. This will give rotating DEs Darryl Tapp (1-1) and rookie Lawrence Jackson (2-1) a chance to assert themselves more, and it will be interesting to see who makes the most of the opportunity. MLB Lofa Tatupu is the heart and soul of the defense, but he is having an individual season as nightmarish as the team's collective misfortunes, due to a litany of injuries (earlier a knee, and most recently a concussion). LB Leroy Hill had an impressive 9-3 box score, and stands to make a lot money from somebody if not the Seahawks if he is allowed to become a free agent. LB Julian Peterson (4-4) remains one of the most athletic playmakers in the league on either side of the ball, and he also added a sack and FF. Other defenders stepped up on Sunday, with DT Rocky Bernard adding 2 sacks and a FF, and CB Josh Wilson (3-3) with an INT and FF. Even with the lopsided win, the outlook in Microsoft/Starbucks lair is still about as bleak and gloomy as the region's perpetual overcast weather, if QB Matt Hasselbeck continues to be sidelined with a scary back condition.

St. Louis

FS O.J. Atogwe (and subject of last week's IDP Spotlight) has surged to near the top of the DB leaders with 4 INTs in as many games. His playmaking penchant is decidedly not a fluke, as he was 2nd in the NFL last season with 8 INTs (with 3 INTs in 2006). Atogwe could be a secondary stalwart and defensive leader for years, and the STL needs to prioritize signing him before he becomes a free agent. He seems to have gotten a boost (as have many players) with the jettisoning of former HC Scott Linehan and the insertion of the fiery Jim Haslett, and is playing more instinctively and taking better angles in both run support and pass defense. The new HC could quickly have interim removed from his title if the Rams dramatic reversal and turnaround is sustained. After a miserable, pathetic 0-4 start, they stunningly bested WAS and DAL in consecutive weeks, and battled NE to a competitive 23-16 loss. Coveted rookie DE Chris Long could be primed to explode in the second half of the season. He is coming off his first 2 sack game, is the 20th DL overall and may have surpassed Jerod Mayo as favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year (see the DROY Meter below). Long is coming along faster than many anticipated, but maybe it should have been expected given his brilliant pedigree and resume, including Hall of Fame bloodlines, tutelage, intensity and work ethic. He is unquestionably a long term franchise cornerstone the organization will be looking to build the defense around. With good looking soph interior DTs Adam Carriker and Clifton Ryan, the Rams DL could be on the ascent.

Tampa Bay

Super soph DE Gaines Adams continues to break out, with his second two sack game by just the midway point of the season. He has also flashed exemplary athleticism for a big man at times, with (what may be admittedly hard to reproduce on a regular basis) two INTs and a highlight reel return TD. There isn't much doubt at this point that the top five pick in the 2007 draft was well spent, and DC Monte Kiffin has found the successor to speed merchant edge rusher Simeon Rice. Pro Bowl CB Ronde Barber is increasingly resembling a human piece of toast, and may be joining his twin brother Tiki onto a post-NFL career path sooner than later.

Tennessee

Underrated HC Jeff Fisher's charges kept on a rollin, and it could be a colossal, larger than life Super Bowl if the Titans and Giants end up in the big show. SS Chris Hope has been overshadowed this season by CB Cortland Finnegan and FS Michael Griffin, but was instrumental in the key MNF victory that simultaneously may have doomed their AFC South nemesis Colts playoff hopes, while preserving their unbeaten start at the midway point of the season (the only undefeated team remaining). Hope had his first INTs of the season and first two INT game of his career. It was a sign that the defense is not just a one man show, with TEN holding IND to just two Dallas Clark TDs (prior to a late, meaningless Peyton Manning rushing TD when it was 31-14 late in the 4th quarter), despite Defensive Player of the Year Co-Favorite DT Albert Haynesworth kept largely in check most of the game. Ex-Colt WLB/SLB David Thornton and WLB Keith Bulluck led the way with 5 solos each, and Finnegan, Griffin, CB Nick Harper and MLB Stephen Tulloch chipped in four solos each.

Washington

It must be depressing for Ram fans to wonder WHAT IF their front office had never let MLB London Fletcher get away. The organization was concerned about his age at the time (in so far as the ramifications of locking him up to a long term contract), approximately a HALF DECADE ago. While Fletcher may have lost a quarter step over the years, he had some SERIOUS wheels to start with. He reportedly clocked a 4.4 for STL scouts as a UFA from microscopic John Carroll, a mutant time for a bowling ball-like, 5'10" 245 lb. human. If DE Jason Taylor can get healthy and round into playing shape, he could make a difference during the home stretch and playoff run. The offense has been carrying the team (especially emerging star QB Jason Campbell, league rushing leader Clinton Portis and the explosive WR Santana Moss), and if the defense can carry more of the weight, the Redskins could be a formidable opponent in the snake pit that is the NFC East.

Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter

Top 10 DROY Candidates

1. Chris Long, DE, STL, 1.02, Virginia (6'3" 265)
   20 Solo Tackles, 5 Assist, 4 sacks & 1 FR (#20 DL Overall & Top Rookie DL)
2. Jerod Mayo, ILB, NE, 1.10, Tennessee (6'1" 240)
   37 Solo Tackles, 10 Assists & 1 FR (#44 LB Overall & Top Rookie LB)
3. Curtis Lofton, MLB, ATL, 2.06, Oklahoma (6'0" 250)
   29 Solo Tackles, 10 Assists, 1 Sack & 1 FF (#46 Overall LB & 2nd Rookie LB)
4. Chris Horton, SS, WAS, 7.42, UCLA (6'1" 210)
   25 Solo Tackles, 8 Assists, 3 INTs, 1 FR & 4 PD (#21 DB & Top Rookie DB)
5. Brandon Flowers, CB, KC, 2.04, Virginia Tech (5'9", 190)
   29 Solo Tackles, 4 Assists, 2 INTs, 1 FR, 5 PD & 1 TD (#22 DB Overall & 2nd Rookie)
6. Dwight Lowery, CB, NYJ, 4.14, San Jose State (5'11" 200)
   33 Solo Tackles, 6 Assists, 1 FF & 9 PD (#27 DB Overall & 3rd Rookie DB)
7. Brandon Carr, CB, KC, 5.05, Grand Valley State (6'0" 205)
   33 Solo Tackles, 2 Assist, 1 INT, 2 FR & 4 PD (#36 DB Overall & 4th Rookie DB)
8. Antoine Cason, CB, SD, 1.27, Arizona (6'0" 190)
   29 Solo Tackles, 2 Assist, 1 INT, 1 FF & 5 PD (#38 DB Overall & 5th Rookie DB)
9. Lawrence Jackson, DE, SEA, 1.28, USC (6'4" 270)
   12 Solo Tackles, 6 Assists & 2 Sacks (#87 DL Overall & 2nd Rookie DL)
10. Kendall Langford, DE, MIA, 3.03, Hampton (6'6" 295)
    10 Solo Tackles, 4 Assists, 2 Sacks & 2 PD (#100 DL Overall & 3rd Rookie DL)

Standing on the Verge...

• Kenny Phillips
• Tyrell "Nexus 7 Series" Johnson
• Glenn Dorsey
• Derrick Harvey
• Quentin Groves
• Jordon Dizon
• Sedrick Ellis
• Vernon Gholston
• Leodis McKelvin
• Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie
• Dan Connor
• Shawn Crable
• Cliff Avril
• Philip Wheeler
• Beau Bell
• Xavier Adibi
• Phillip Merling
• Calais Campbell
• Jason Jones
• William Hayes
• Kentwan Balmer
• Trevor Laws
• DeJuan Morgan
• Charles Godfrey
• Tom Zbikowski
• Aqib Talib
• Mike Jenkins
• Terrence Wheatley
• Terrell Thomas
• Chevis Jackson
• Reggie Smith
• Antwaun Molden
• Tyvon Branch

Injured Reserve List

• Tracy Porter (Dislocated Wrist)
• Keith Rivers (Jaw broken in two places)
• Tavares Gooden (Hip injury)

IDP Spotlight

This section will draw from and point back to preseason content, such as Spotlights, Face-offs, Value Play and Sleeper articles, Team Reports and Player Pages, as well as new content as in-season events dictate.

From the Preseason IDP Value Plays Article...

Derrick Johnson, WLB, KC

DJ has been one of the most physically and athletically gifted and talented young LBs in the league, laboring in relative anonymity from the generally IDP-unfriendly SLB position. While the Lions Ernie Sims is viewed by some of the heir apparent to the aging Derrick Brooks as the top WLB in the game, an anticipated switch to the weak side for Johnson in 2008 could propel him to the apex of his position. On the bonus plan, the Chiefs D could get more work than Matt Leinart's beer bong.

Freddie Keiaho, WLB, IND

Keiaho is the latest culminating point in a lineage of star Dungy Cover Two WLBs (Peterson, Thornton, June and Brooks extending back to TB). An early elbow injury caused him to miss some games and left him an effectively one-armed tackler for much of the season, yet his prorated production over a full season projects close to a top 10 LB in tackles. He was a star prep LB and has the athleticism to boost his overall numbers with a few big plays.

Thanks for reading Ear to the Ground. Any comments or questions are invited - Magaw@Footballguys.com.

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