Ear To the Ground - Week 16

  Posted 12/18 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

"The cosmos speaks in patterns" - Roger von Oech (paraphrase of Heraclitus)

"Luck is the residue of design" - Branch Rickey (Brooklyn Dodgers GM - integrated baseball)

"Our business is winning" - Bill Parcells (Ex-Giants/Patriots/Jets/Cowboys HC, MIA grocery picker and future HoFer)

The subject matter of ETTG is IDP with an emphasis on Dynasty leagues. Ear To The Ground was chosen for this column's title to convey a sense of detecting rumblings in the distance... an ability essential to project a prospect from college to pro and rookie to veteran. It will consist of three sections: Team Reports (Watchlist), a Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter and an IDP Spotlight. The emphasis here will be on the impact positions of LB, DE and S... exceptional DTs and CBs will be noted for leagues that differentiate DE/DT and S/CB. Dynasty content is geared towards youth. Like most successful working rosters that employ a blend of production and potential, there will be a balance of rookie and veteran coverage in the mix. While by the nature of much IDP coverage new names will bubble up to the surface from week to week, ETTG will try to identify key players early on and provide a synoptic overview for the whole season as it unfolds.

Team Reports

Pro Bowl Edition (next week: Who went up and who went down in 2008)

AFC Defensive Pro Bowl Roster

• DE: Mario Williams (HOU) and Dwight Freeney (IND); Alt. - Robert Mathis (IND)
• DT: Albert Haynesworth (TEN) and Kris Jenkins (NYJ); Alt. - Shaun Rogers (CLE)
• OLB: James Harrison (PIT) and Joey Porter (MIA); Alt. - Terrell Suggs (BAL)
• MLB: Ray Lewis (BAL); Alt. - James Farrior (PIT)
• CB: Nnamdi Asomugha (OAK) and Cortland Finnegan (TEN); Alt. - Darrelle Revis (NYJ)
• S: Ed Reed (BAL) and Troy Polamalu (PIT); Alt. - Chris Hope (TEN)

AFC Teams with no Defensive Pro Bowl Representatives - NE, BUF, CIN, JAX, DEN, SD & KC

NFC Defensive Pro Bowl Roster

• DE: Justin Tuck (NYG) and Julius Peppers (CAR); Alt. - Jared Allen (MIN)
• DT: Kevin Williams (MIN) and Jay Ratliff (DAL); Alt. - Pat Williams (MIN)
• OLB: DeMarcus Ware (DAL) and Lance Briggs (CHI); Alt. - Derrick Brooks (TB)
• ILB: Patrick Willis (SF); Alt. - Jon Beason (CAR)
• CB: Charles Woodson (GB) and Antoine Winfield (MIN); Alt. - Asante Samuel (PHI)
• S: Nick Collins (GB) and Adrian Wilson (ARI); Alt. - Brian Dawkins (PHI)

NFC Teams with no Defensive Pro Bowl Representatives - WAS, DET, ATL, NO, SEA & STL

Arizona Cardinals

Adrian Wilson (6-2) has enjoyed a resurgence along with the Cards as a whole, though he has been somewhat of a disappointment in an IDP sense, at just #44 DB (right behind both of the Chiefs starting rookie CBs, Brandon Flowers and Carr). ILB/OLB Karlos Dansby (8-0) is enjoying EASILY his best year in a breakout season (falling JUST outside the top 10), and should get an honorable mention. He is #11 LB.

Baltimore Ravens

MLB Ray Lewis (5-2 & 1 sack), SS Ed Reed (6-2 & 1 sack) and LB/DE Terrell Suggs (2-0, 1 sack & 1 FF) all made the Pro Bowl. DT Haloti Ngata (3-2) should have gotten an honorable mention, is a big reason his teammates are able to make so many plays around him and looks to be one of the best up and coming young interior DL in the game. Lewis has vaulted all the way to the formerly familiar lofty top 10 heights, and Suggs is ensconced at #2 among DL, but Reed isn't as relevant for IDP purposes. Just to show how difficult it is to overcome just 30 solos, even in a season with some impressive big play numbers (5 INTs and THREE TDs!), he is just #36 among DBs.

Carolina Panthers

DE Julius Peppers is #6 among DL, but hasn't been as consistent as fellow NFC Pro Bowl starting DE Justin Tuck. His timing has been impeccable, in a season in which he found himself playing for a bank breaking contract. He tied Robert Mathis with 5 FFs for the most among DL. MLB Jon Beason (9-1) was a rookie phenom in 2007 and took his game to another level, looking like even more of a prodigy in 2008 (#5 LB). His 100 solo tackles leads the league and is outdistancing everybody by a fairly wide margin. Beason is also a gifted athlete and dangerous playmaker, evidenced by his 3 INTs (tied 1st among LBs). The NFC MLB/ILB representatives, Patrick Willis and Beason, look like future perennial Pro Bowlers. CB Chris Gamble (6-1 & 1 INT) has enjoyed easily his best season, though he was left out of the Pro Bowl with other very worthy CBs in the conference. He is the #2 DB, and his 74 solos is 4th among DBs and tops among CBs (12 more than run support demon Antoine Winfield). Gamble has also been a big play machine, with 3 INTs, 1 FF, 2 FRs, 1 TD, and is among the league leaders in PD with 16. But don't feel too sorry for the multitalented former collegiate two way star (ala Charles Woodson and Champ Bailey), as he just signed a contract extension that makes him one of the highest paid DBs in the league.

Chicago Bears

WLB Lance Briggs (7-0) is the #7 LB and a big play machine, with 3 INTs, 1 FF, 2 FRS, 1 TD and is among the leaders at his position with 10 PD. MLB Brian Urlacher (7-3) is still capable of burning brightly at times but is fading (#24 LB) in IDP leagues, kind of like the dying core of a star.

Cleveland Browns

DT Shaun Rogers (3-0) has been one of the lone bright spots for the Browns, one of the most disappointing teams during the 2008 season. He was the only Pro Bowl selection for Cleveland, but ILB D'Qwell Jackson (4-2) should have garnered some merit for his strong play in a breakout season. He has surged in recent weeks to #2 LB. Rogers is improbably in the top 10 among DL (though in a great season for interior DL, Albert Haynesworth and Kevin Williams are #9 and #11 among DL, respectively), and has gotten a big boost in his IDP standing by leading all DL in solo tackles (56). Jackson has also been stout at the POA (or maybe it reflects more on the lack of playmakers AROUND him, sort of the opposite to a team defense like TEN?). His 86 solo tackles is among the league leaders, and he has also made some big plays (2 sacks and 3 INTs).

Dallas Cowboys

OLB DeMarcus Ware (6-1, 3 sacks and 2 FFs) is having a Defensive Player of the Year kind of season, and he came up big in a pressure packed game against divisional nemesis Giants in a Sunday night game with massive playoff implications (the Giants go into the breach once again, with another huge conference tilt and Sunday night battle royale, this time against the surging Panthers). Ware has been on fire lately, and his monster 3 sack game elevated him to a league leading 19 sacks (Joey Porter is next closest, with 16.5) and #4 among LBs. While it isn't likely, he could take a run at the league sack record if he closes out with a few more multiple sack efforts. If he can stay healthy, he has the kind of ability to potentially put up HoF-type numbers in the future. His 4 FFs are tied for second behind only James Harrison's elite DE-like 7 FFs. It was nice to see DT Jay Ratliff (2-0) get much deserved props, as he has been an integral part of the Cowboys defensive success.

Green Bay Packers

CB Charles Woodson (6-0 & 1 sack) and FS Nick Collins (3-0) have been outstanding and among the bright spots in a disappointing season for the franchise, in a year hag-ridden by injury (among others, DL Cullen Jenkins and MLB Nick Barnett are on IR and missed much of the season). Both have been outstanding playmakers, with a combined 10 INTs and 5 TDs, but too many times this season offensive miscues squandered opportunities. They are #9 and #13 among DBs, respectively.

Houston Texans

DE Mario Williams (4-0) gets the first of what should be many trips to Hawaii. In terms of his physical gifts and athletic prowess given his prototypical size, he may be peerless in the NFL (and that includes fellow physical specimen and athletic prodigy Julius Peppers). He should get nothing but better, a scary prospect for AFC South divisional rivals. Williams is at #8 among DL, largely on the strength of his 11 sacks and 4 FFs. He is capable of more, and should get nothing but better. MLB DeMeco Ryans (1-2) has fallen off the edge of an IDP cliff at #27 LB, but has been gutting out an injury (thanks to Jene Bramel for that particular intel).

Indianapolis Colts

DEs Dwight Freeney (#33) and Robert Mathis (#3) represent the Colts. Ultra-talented but fragile former Defensive Player of the Year, SS Bob Sanders, has been an injury casualty for much of the season. The tale of the tape between the DEs respective IDP finishes is in the revealing disparity between solo tackles. Mathis has 11 sacks, is tied 1st among DL in FFs (5 - with Julius Peppers), has 3 FRS and 1 TD. Freeney has a commendable 9.5 sacks and 4 FFs. However, Mathis (36 solos) easily eclipses Freeney (20 solos) in run support (who sometimes forgets to tackle the ball carrier on his way to the QB, and at times recklessly abandons run gap responsibility in his eagerness for the sack).

Miami Dolphins

OLB Joey Porter (3-0 & 1 sack) has to be a candidate for both Defensive as well as Comeback Player of the Year. While he is 2nd in the NFL in sacks (16.5, behind only DeMarcus Ware's freakish 19), with merely 35 solos he falls outside the top 30 LBs.

Minnesota Vikings

No team had as many defenders make the Pro Bowl as the Vikings with four (including an attention getting three from the DL). DTs Kevin (1-0) and Pat Williams (0-2) as well as DE Jared Allen (3-0 & 2 sacks) were all deserving. Pat Williams is the proverbial hulking run stuffer, and clogs opposing rushing arteries like bad cholesterol. Kevin Williams is having probably the best season of his career, and is amazingly at #11 among DL. CB Antoine Winfield (5-1 & 1 FF) has been one of the top DBs in the league for a while (especially for his thunderous run support... he hits like a defender 50 lbs heavier), but hasn't always gotten the recognition. He is #4 among DBs in a routinely great IDP season, and has been a big play MACHINE with 2 sacks, 2 INTs, 4 FFs, 2 FRS, 1 TD and 19 PD. The FFs and PD numbers are among the league leaders for his position (O.J. Atogwe has 5 FFs). LB Chad Greenway (5-1 & 1 sack) has surged to #12 among LBs and has put up massive stats since MLB E.J. Henderson went on IR. He would have been a better choice than Derrick Brooks, who got in effectively based on name recognition and sentimental value in the twilight of his career.

New York Giants

DE Justin Tuck (4-1 & 1/2 sack) has emerged as one of the best DL in football, and he has managed the feat somewhat against the odds, despite future HoF DE Michael Strahan retiring in the offseason, and Pro Bowl caliber DE Osi Umenyiora landing on IR very early. He is presently #1 among DL, and has done it with consistency, as he has been among the leaders virtually the entire season (whereas fellow bookend, the other NFC Pro Bowl starting DE Julius Peppers, has had far more ups and downs). While his 13 sacks is overshadowed in a year of prodigious sack numbers (possibly this is a trend we should expect to continue, with the many of the league's offenses seemingly moving in more of a passing direction) by the likes of DeMarcus Ware, Joey Porter and John Abraham, he more than compensates with an overall game that includes stout run support (48 solos - 2nd among DEs behind only Trent Cole's 55) and big plays... with an INT, 3 FFs and 1 TD. Assuming Umenyiora makes something close to a complete recovery, this should be a terrifying DL to reckon with for NFC East foes and the NFL at large for many years.

New York Jets

Super soph CB Darrelle Revis (3-1 & 1 INT) is the Jets sole defensive representative in the Pro Bowl. He is a big play waiting to happen, with 1 sack, 5 INTs, 1 FF, 1 FR, 1 TD and 16 PD, but because of the way he is being schemed (with just an Ed Reed-like 36 solo tackles), he has fallen to #33 among DBs, after flirting with the top 10 earlier in the season. Revis is a big time athlete and consistently flashes the talent to rack up frequent flyer miles to the big island. He could be a future serial Pro Bowler and a fixture in the gridiron's postseason All-star contest.

Oakland Raiders

CB Nnamdi Asomugha (4-0) received long overdue recognition despite laboring in the football purgatory of Oakland. Of course, he is as heinous of an IDP prospect (#127 DB) as he is outstanding in real football terms. Most teams aren't stupid enough to throw it in his direction anymore. Ironically and sadly, the Raiders bungling front office (i.e. - Al Davis) spent on an absurd amount of money on free agent CB DeAngelo Hall (who has already been released before even one complete season), instead of using it to extend the super star CB who has been right under their noses all along. MLB Kirk Morrison (6-1) and SS Gibril Wilson (9-3, 1 sack & 1 INT) are #9 and #1 at their respective IDP positions, and might receive more Pro Bowl consideration if and when Oakland returns to respectability and can find a way to play more competitively.

Philadelphia Eagles

FS Brian Dawkins (3-1) has bounced back well from last year's injury-marred season, but hasn't been as big a hit for IDP purposes, as the #35 DB. Teammate and SS Quintin Mikell (1-0) has had the far greater IDP impact, ranking #16 DB. Dawkins was the only Eagle to make the NFC Pro Bowl roster, though arguably DE Trent Cole (4-0 & 1 sack) was deserving. Cole is currently the #5 DL. His 8 sacks have been greatly augmented by 55 solo tackles (tops for his position, and second among all DL behind only Shaun Roger's 56).

Pittsburgh Steelers

Six Pro Bowlers were on the field in the controversial Steelers victory over the Ravens. OLB James Harrison (3-2) is having a Defensive Player of the Year campaign (and might be a lock if not for the monster season by Albert Haynesworth and the stellar play of late by DeMarcus Ware). He is the top IDP overall, and has wreaked havoc and been one of the most disruptive defenders in the NFL (with Haynesworth). Harrison has amassed 15 sacks, 1 INT and a league-leading 7 FFs. One of the biggest disappointments was LaMarr Woodley (1-1) not being rewarded with a plane ticket to Hawaii after a breakout season for the super soph, but he has been dinged and faded a bit down the stretch. Steady veteran presence and underrated ILB James Farrior (8-4) looks like he could play at a relatively high level for a few more years. SS Troy Polamalu (2-0) has returned strong from an injury-plagued 2007 season. While he isn't always relevant for IDP purposes, he is #15 among DBs, largely on the strength of his league leading 7 INTs and 16 PD (numbers rare for a SS, but he isn't schemed like an ordinary SS). With his return to health and peak form, he has exhibited his elite instincts, football smarts and off-the-charts athleticism, as well as an uncanny ability to break on the ball and make plays. The former Trojan great (and USC has an illustrious lineage of NFL safeties, including Ronnie Lott, Joey Browner, Tim McDonald and Mark Carrier, to name a few... with future 1st rounder Taylor Mays in the pipeline) made maybe the play of the year at any position with a sprawling, fingertip INT a few weeks ago that highlighted his superhuman reflexes.

San Francisco 49ers

You generally have to be REALLY good to make the Pro Bowl despite playing on a team as bumbling and foundering as the 49ers, and ILB Patrick Willis (3-1) indisputably is. Barring injury, he could rack up a half dozen or more such honors in upcoming seasons. He is #3 among LBs and his 92 solo tackles are second only to Jon Beason.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WLB Derrick Brooks (5-2) was the greatest OLB of his generation (as Ray Lewis was for MLBs), but he is increasingly irrelevant for IDP purposes at #64 LB, and it may be time to ride off into the sunset (or sail away, as a Buc). His Pro Bowl berth would have been better served going to Chad Greenway or Karlos Dansby (who also plays ILB).

Tennessee Titans

The Titans landed three defenders on the Pro Bowl squad. Enough has been said about the Herculean exploits of DT Albert Haynesworth (4-0), which is good, as there are a finite number of descriptive superlatives in the thesaurus. He should get the Defensive Player of the Year nod despite probably missing the last two regular season games with a knee injury suffered in Sunday's upset by the Texans (and stiff competition from DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison). His towering presence front and center of the defense has made him one of the most disruptive two-way DL since Reggie White in his prime, and in this case his actual ability and real football importance converges with his IDP value, as he has been a top 10 DL. CB Cortland Finnegan (3-0) has been consistent all season, and never looked back after riding a blistering start (with most/all of his 5 INTs taking place in the first month of the season) to the Pro Bowl. He is also #12 among DBs. SS Chris Hope (3-1) returned strong from a potentially career-ending neck injury in 2007, and has been a key stabilizing force in the secondary, with the Titans starting youngsters Finnegan and super soph FS Michael Griffin (4-4). Tennessee improbably has four DBs in the top 30, with Griffin at #19, CB Nick Harper (10-0) at #28 and Hope #29 among DBs. WLB Keith Bulluck's (2-0) Pro Bowl days appear to be long gone, as well as his IDP relevance (just barely cracking the top 50 LBs, for his second subpar season statistically in a row, at a time when he will be 32 to start next season).

Defensive Rookie of the Year Meter

Top 10 DROY Candidates

1. Jerod Mayo, ILB, NE, 1.10, Tennessee (6'1" 240)
   89 Solo Tackles, 23 Assists, 1 FR & 4 PD (#15 LB Overall & Top Rookie LB)
2. Curtis Lofton, MLB, ATL, 2.06, Oklahoma (6'0" 250)
   57 Solo Tackles, 23 Assists, 1 Sack, 1 FF & 1 PD (#42 Overall LB & 2nd Rookie LB)
3. Brandon Flowers, CB, KC, 2.04, Virginia Tech (5'10", 190)
   52 Solo Tackles, 6 Assists, 2 INTs, 1 FF, 2 FR, 10 PD & 1 TD (#42 DB Overall & Top Rookie DB)
4. Brandon Carr, CB, KC, 5.05, Grand Valley State (6'0" 205)
   63 Solo Tackles, 3 Assist, 2 INT, 2 FR, & 6 PD (#43 DB Overall & 2nd Rookie DB)
5. Chris Long, DE, STL, 1.02, Virginia (6'3" 265)
   31 Solo Tackles, 7 Assist, 4 sacks, 1 FF & 1 FR (#39 DL Overall & Top Rookie DL)
6. Dwight Lowery, CB, NYJ, 4.14, San Jose State (5'11" 200)
   51 Solo Tackles, 8 Assists, 1 INT 3 FFs & 16 PD (#47 DB & 3rd Rookie DB)
7. Chris Horton, SS, WAS, 7.42, UCLA (6'1" 210)
   46 Solo Tackles, 15 Assists, 1 INT, 3 FF, 1 FR & 5 PD (#54 DB Overall & 4th Rookie DB)
8. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, CB, ARI, 1.16, Tennessee State (6'2" 185)
   28 Solo Tackles, 1 Assist, 3 INTs, 15 PD & 1 TD (#95 DB Overall)
9. Antoine Cason, CB, SD, 1.27, Arizona (6'0" 190)
   41 Solo Tackles, 8 Assist, 1 INT, 1 FF & 6 PD (#87 DB Overall)
10. Kenny Phillips, FS, NYG, 1.31, Miami (6'2" 210)
    47 Solo Tackles, 9 Assists, 1 INT & 5 PD (#90 DB Overall)

Standing on the Verge...

• Leodis McKelvin
• Derrick Harvey
• Kendall Langford
• Lawrence Jackson
• Tyrell "Nexus Seven Series" Johnson
• Glenn Dorsey
• Quentin Groves
• Jordon Dizon
• Sedrick Ellis
• Vernon Gholston
• Shawn Crable
• Cliff Avril
• Philip Wheeler
• Beau Bell
• Xavier Adibi
• Phillip Merling
• Calais Campbell
• Jason Jones
• William Hayes
• Kentwan Balmer
• Trevor Laws
• DeJuan Morgan
• Charles Godfrey
• Tom Zbikowski
• Aqib Talib
• Mike Jenkins
• Terrence Wheatley
• Terrell Thomas
• Chevis Jackson
• Reggie Smith
• Antwaun Molden
• Tyvon Branch

Injured Reserve List

• Tracy Porter (dislocated wrist)
• Keith Rivers (jaw broken in two places)
• Tavares Gooden (hip injury)
• Dan Connor (torn ACL)

IDP Spotlight

This section will draw from and point back to preseason content, such as Spotlights, Face-offs, Value Play and Sleeper articles, Team Reports and Player Pages, as well as new content as in-season events dictate.

Karlos Dansby, ILB, ARI (from a 2007 Player Page)

• Positives - Gifted athlete and physical prodigy. Former nationally recruited WR (dual threat, all-state WR and hoops star as an AL prep phenom). Blew up into a safety than into a LB (switched his sophomore season at Auburn), but has maintained his skill position wheels, ball skills and playmaking ability. Good pedigree (2.01 - '04, first team All-American). Multitalented player with a well rounded skill set. Highly developed pass rusher, equally adept playing in reverse and in coverage. Helps covering WRs, having been one. Good instincts and run/pass recognition. Innate sense of angles and solid open field tackler. Extremely dangerous in space. Has flashed playmaking ability in his first three NFL seasons, with a combined 17 sacks (8 in '06 - top 10 among LBs), 4 INTs, 5 FFs and 2 TDs.
• Negatives - Not many. Could get off blocks better (like nearly all young LBs). Runs around blocks at times. Has missed at least one game in each of his first three seasons, so durability is a question. Could be miscast as an ILB in the new 3-4. The Cards DL is a work in progress, so he could have plenty of occasion to refine his block shedding chops.
• Outlook - Top 30 finish among LBs in FBG scoring in '05 (in 15 games). His prorated projection last season (just 14 games) would have been closer to top 20. Merely 25, his best ball should still be in front of him. Outstanding pass rushing ability and his overall skill set is well aligned with OLB responsibilities, but he has the size (6'4" 240), athleticism and tackling ability to make a smooth transition to the inside. IF he can stay healthy, has a bright future. Could have top 20 upside in IDP dynasty leagues. Dansby closed out the '06 campaign with a smoking finish. His blistering second half clip (after beginning the season with toe and leg injuries) would have projected to about 100 solo tackles and DD sacks. Has the motivation factor, as he could make a lot of money with a big season... either in free agency eventually, or more likely with a big contract extension (ARI has shown the foresight recently to lock up their nucleus of core young talent).

Thanks for reading Ear to the Ground. Any comments or questions are invited - Magaw@Footballguys.com.

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