Know Your League - Average Draft Position

  Posted 8/14 by Clayton Gray, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Here at Footballguys.com, we try to give you every tool possible to succeed. However, to completely maximize your potential, you have to hone those tools to your individual league. The average draft position data (ADP) that we offer is an excellent resource for the vast majority of online leagues. The data has been obtained from thousands of online leagues and is updated frequently. Most would agree, however, that the average live (off-line) draft is often dissimilar from the average online draft.

Many off-line drafters only participate in that one league, and while they are aware and often utilize online fantasy material, they aren't tuned in to how the average online draft develops. For this reason, the typical off-line has its own flow. While the ADP offered by Footballguys.com is certainly still usable, it often falters (usually at quarterback).

Now, if your off-line league has been around for a while (and you have kept a record of past drafts), you have all the material necessary to become much more dialed in to what will happen in your future drafts. You are about to own league-specific ADP.

The Basics

Let's take a look at two different Top 50 lists. Note that quarterbacks are written in blue, running backs in black, wide receivers in red, tight ends in purple., and defenses in orange.

Note that the Top 60 labeled "League-Specific ADP" is the ADP I'll be using in my home league. You might be asking how I've obtained it since we haven't drafted yet this year. More on that later. First, let's look at some differences in the lists.

Notice that within each position, the players are in the same order. This goes back to the idea that an off-line drafter will generally rank players in the same order as the online world. After all, he has access to sites like this and ESPN.com. The difference we want to focus on is how each position shows up in the Top 60. Let's lay that information out in a more readable format.

Of course the most glaring difference is a team defense shows up in the Top 60 of my off-line ADP. However, the quarterback position show huge movement as well. If your strategy is to wait at QB and take a couple of your Top 10 signal-callers, you'll have to pull the trigger much more quickly in my off-line league.

Creating the Off-line ADP

Before we dig deeper, here's a brief tutorial on how to create your own league-specific ADP.

First off, you need to have at least a few seasons of draft results. For each position, record the overall pick where each position was taken. Here is an example from my league for team defense.

A brief explanation of the chart above: In the 2000 draft, the first team defense off the board went with the 56th overall pick, the second team defense went 72nd overall, and so on. In the 2001 draft, the first team defense off the board went with the 37th overall pick, the second team defense went 49th overall, and so on. The column labeled "Avg" is simply the average of all of the seasons.

Repeat this process to find averages for every position. Here are those averages:

Now, combine the positions and reorder them by the averages.

Finally, add LaDainian Tomlinson to the RB1 line, Adrian Peterson to the RB2 line, Tom Brady to the QB1 line, etc. You now have the league-specific ADP reference in the first table above.

Digging Deeper

Let's take a closer look at the league-specific ADP. Since my home league is a 14-teamer, I prefer to convert the overall pick number into round.pick format.

Here is the quarterback position:

Obviously, if I want an elite quarterback in my home league, I'll have to pay dearly. At a glance, it's apparent that I also can not afford to wait long to grab a signal-caller as 20 of them are usually off the board in the first 8 rounds. While normal online strategy dictates waiting a bit at this position, it's almost impossible in this league.

This type of analysis can be done for each position in your league. Once you know where to modify your strategy at every position, you'll be able to draft with confidence and be a step ahead of the pack.