Top 200 IDP

Posted 8/10 by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Average Draft Position (ADP) represents when these players will likely be drafted. Difference (Diff) refers to the difference between my rank and the ADP list. A positive Diff value indicates expectations to exceed draft position (value pick). A negative Diff value indicates excpectations to fall short of drafted position (over-valued/reach). The green entries represent the best projected values as players to target. The red entries are players to avoid.

FBG Rank	ADP	Diff	Pos1	Pos2	Player	Team/Bye	Comments
1	1	0	LB1	ILB1	Patrick Willis	SF/9	Led the league in tackles as a rookie and should be an IDP stud for years to come
2	2	0	LB2	ILB2	DeMeco Ryans	HOU/8	Backed up his impressive rookie season with a top-3 finish in 2007
3	6	3	LB3	ILB3	David Harris	NYJ/5	Only started for half the season in 2007 but still finished as LB10
4	16	12	LB4	ILB4	London Fletcher	WAS/10	Never missed a game and has reached 90+ solo tackles for 8 years in a row
5	5	0	LB5	ILB5	Jon Beason	CAR/9	Could see a drop in value if Dan Connor pushes him back to WLB
6	3	-3	LB6	ILB6	Brian Urlacher	CHI/8	Prototypical MLB who recorded 90+ solos, 5 sacks, and 5 INTs last year
7	4	-3	DL1	DE1	Jared Allen	MIN/8	Finished as the top DE for last 2 years and could improve with the move to Minnesota
8	7	-1	LB7	ILB7	Nick Barnett	GB/8	Athletic LB coming off the best season of his career
9	15	6	LB8	ILB8	Will Witherspoon	STL/5	Led all ILBs with 7 sacks in 2007 but hasn\'t recorded an INT since 2005
10	13	3	LB9	ILB9	Paul Posluszny	BUF/6	Talented young LB who missed almost his entire rookie season with a broken arm
11	12	1	LB10	ILB10	Kirk Morrison	OAK/5	Underrated LB who is just beneath the elite at the position
12	14	2	LB11	ILB11	Lofa Tatupu	SEA/4	Very consistent all-around LB; DWI charge this summer is worth noting
13	20	7	LB12	ILB12	Ray Lewis	BAL/10	33 and no longer the dominant force he was, but he can still produce when healthy
14	10	-4	DL2	DE2	Osi Umenyiora	NYG/4	Explosive pass rusher who could see more double teams with Strahan's retirement
15	29	14	LB13	ILB13	Jonathan Vilma	NO/9	Change of scenery should do wonders for this very talented player
16	8	-8	DL3	DE3	Mario Williams	HOU/8	10 of his 14 sacks came in the second half of 2007
17	27	10	LB14	ILB14	Barrett Ruud	TB/10	Was on pace for a top-5 season before midseason knee injury slowed him down
18	25	7	DB1	S1	Adrian Wilson	ARI/7	Coming off a disappointing season, Wilson remains the consensus #1 DB
19	18	-1	DL4	DE4	Aaron Kampman	GB/8	Great 2-way DE who puts up big tackle and sack numbers
20	26	6	LB15	OLB1	Lance Briggs	CHI/8	Productive WLB who signed a 6-year, $36 million contract in March
21	31	10	DB2	S2	Sean Jones	CLE/5	Big hitter who also hauled in 5 INTs in each of the past two seasons
22	64	42	LB16	ILB15	Mike Peterson	JAX/7	32 year old has battled injuries last two years but is a free agent in 2009
23	24	1	LB17	OLB2	Ernie Sims	DET/4	Young, aggressive LB who could join the elite if he made more big plays
24	55	31	LB18	ILB16	Antonio Pierce	NYG/4	Not much of a playmaker but very consistent tackler who has LB1 potential
25	19	-6	LB19	ILB17	E.J. Henderson	MIN/8	Likely to regress from a career season in 2007 but should remain solid LB2
26	36	10	LB20	OLB3	Karlos Dansby	ARI/7	Versatile weapon who can play inside or outside and fill up the box score
27	21	-6	DB3	S3	Bob Sanders	IND/4	Dominates when healthy but has missed 26 games over last 4 years
28	47	19	DB4	S4	Gibril Wilson	OAK/5	One of the best tacklers in the game; expect similar production despite a change in teams
29	44	15	LB21	OLB4	Keith Bulluck	TEN/6	Averaged over 100 solo/year for five straight years before last year\'s big dropoff
30	52	22	DL5	DE5	Jason Taylor	WAS/10	Trade to Redskins means a position switch to LDE which could limit his upside
31	39	8	LB22	ILB18	Gary Brackett	IND/4	Very consistent player who set a career-high with 4 INTs last year
32	23	-9	DL6	DE6	Trent Cole	PHI/7	Over last 2 seasons, 15 of his 20 sacks have come in the first half of the season
33	42	9	DL7	DE7	Terrell Suggs	BAL/10	Versatile player should rebound from career-low 5 sacks last season
34	61	27	DB5	CB1	Antoine Winfield	MIN/8	Best tackling CB in the league and improved pass rush should equal more INTs
35	17	-18	LB23	OLB5	D.J. Williams	DEN/8	Had breakout season last year at MLB but is expected to move back to WLB
36	54	18	DL8	DE8	Aaron Schobel	BUF/6	Trade for Marcus Stroud should help him get back to double digit sacks
37	57	20	DB6	CB2	Richard Marshall	CAR/9	Playing nickel CB may limit snaps but allows him to make plenty of tackles
38	30	-8	DL9	DE9	Patrick Kerney	SEA/4	9 of his 14.5 sacks last year came in just 3 games
39	33	-6	DB7	S5	Kerry Rhodes	NYJ/5	Tackle numbers dropped off once Harris emerged, but big plays went up
40	71	31	LB24	ILB19	Zach Thomas	DAL/10	Tough to know what to expect from him at this point but he still has top-10 potential
41	46	5	DB8	S6	Roman Harper	NO/9	Had a breakout season in 2007 but trade for Vilma could limit his upside
42	81	39	DB9	CB3	Charles Tillman	CHI/8	Reliable fantasy CB who should rebound with a healthier surrounding cast
43	66	23	LB25	OLB6	Michael Boley	ATL/7	Will have a hard time replicating his amazing numbers from last year
44	69	25	LB26	OLB7	Angelo Crowell	BUF/6	Underrated and athletic SLB who plays in every down and situation
45	59	14	LB27	OLB8	Julian Peterson	SEA/4	Incredible athlete who has extra value in sack-heavy scoring systems
46	40	-6	DL10	DE10	Kyle Vanden Bosch	TEN/6	Has averaged nearly 50 solo tackles and 10 sacks since joining the Titans in 2005
47	75	28	DB10	S7	Bernard Pollard	KC/6	Thumper who should see a lot of time in run support on a rebuilding team
48	28	-20	DL11	DE11	Julius Peppers	CAR/9	In a contract year, move to RDE should help him forget miserable 2007 season
49	38	-11	DB11	CB4	Nate Clements	SF/9	An elite talent who has finished among the top-5 CBs in 3 of the past 4 years
50	56	6	LB28	OLB9	Chad Greenway	MIN/8	3-down WLB looks like potential impact player after missing his rookie season
51	32	-19	LB29	OLB10	A.J. Hawk	GB/8	Very talented player who needs to make more big plays to reach LB2 level
52	35	-17	DL12	DE12	Justin Tuck	NYG/4	Strahan retirement could help push him up into top-10 DE
53	37	-16	LB30	OLB11	Thomas Howard	OAK/5	Excellent cover LB should never leave the field after pulling down 6 INTs last year
54	99	45	LB31	ILB20	James Farrior	PIT/6	Likely slowing down at 33, but also set a career-high with 6.5 sacks last year
55	9	-46	LB32	OLB12	Demarcus Ware	DAL/10	Elite pass-rusher appears to be overvalued in standard leagues due to low tackle numbers
56	88	32	LB33	ILB21	Channing Crowder	MIA/4	Injury risk, but could put up big numbers playing MLB on a bad team
57	72	15	DB12	S8	Michael Lewis	SF/9	Run-stopping safety at his best playing up in the box like an extra LB
58	11	-47	LB34	OLB13	Shawne Merriman	SD/9	Like Ware, an elite pass rusher who is often overvalued in standard scoring systems
59	67	8	LB35	OLB14	Derrick Johnson	KC/6	If reports of him moving to WLB are true, could be headed for breakout season
60	91	31	LB36	OLB15	Freddie Keiaho	IND/4	Missed 5 games in 2007 but was very productive when healthy
61	45	-16	DL13	DE13	Will Smith	NO/9	Got off to a slow start in 2007 with just 1.5 sacks in first 8 games, but finished strong
62	50	-12	DB13	CB5	Champ Bailey	DEN/8	70+ solo tackles in 2006 and 2007; should see rebound in INTs with improved pass rush
63	76	13	DL14	DE14	Andre Carter	WAS/10	Taylor trade should make things easier for Carter, who put up 10.5 sacks last year
64	60	-4	DB14	S9	Chris Harris	CAR/9	#1 ranked safety last year finished with an amazing 8 forced fumbles
65	68	3	DL15	DE15	Tamba Hali	KC/6	Will move from LDE to RDE to replace Jared Allen, has top-10 potential
66	63	-3	DB15	S10	LaRon Landry	WAS/10	Could see a drop in value if he winds up starting at FS instead of playing up in the box
67	34	-33	DB16	CB6	Marcus Trufant	SEA/4	Elite NFL corner, but unlikely to replicate his 7 INTs from last season
68	43	-25	DB17	S11	Troy Polamalu	PIT/6	Has missed 8 games over past two seasons and numbers keep dropping
69	90	21	DL16	DE16	Derrick Burgess	OAK/5	Had a terrible first half in 2007, but finished with 24 solos and 7 sacks in last 8 games
70	102	32	LB37	ILB22	Keith Brooking	ATL/7	Moving back to WLB to make room for rookie MLB Curtis Lofton
71	96	25	LB38	ILB23	DQwell Jackson	CLE/5	Has 90-solo potential if he can stay healthy, but needs to make more big plays
72	58	-14	DB18	S12	Oshiomogho Atogwe	STL/5	Great playmaker picked off 8 passes last year on one of the league\'s worst teams
73	132	59	DB19	S13	Chris Hope	TEN/6	#1 safety in 2006 only averaged 3.3 solos/game in 2007
74	84	10	DB20	S14	Atari Bigby	GB/8	Former undrafted free agent finished as a top-10 safety in his first year as a starter
75	154	79	DB21	CB7	Marlin Jackson	IND/4	Recorded 31 solo tackles in first 4 games, but just 38 in the remaining 12 games
76	147	71	DL17	DE17	Leonard Little	STL/5
77	109	32	DB22	S15	Jermaine Phillips	TB/10
78	51	-27	DL18	DE18	Adewale Ogunleye	CHI/8
79	86	7	DL19	DE19	Gaines Adams	TB/10
80	115	35	DL20	DE20	Robert Mathis	IND/4
81	77	-4	DB23	CB8	Darrelle Revis	NYJ/5
82	126	44	DB24	S16	Madieu Williams	MIN/8
83	65	-18	LB39	ILB24	Jordon Dizon	DET/4
84	107	23	DB25	CB9	Cedric Griffin	MIN/8
85	48	-37	LB40	OLB16	Keith Rivers	CIN/8
86	128	42	DL21	DE21	John Abraham	ATL/7
87	116	29	LB41	OLB17	Donnie Edwards	KC/6
88	131	43	LB42	ILB25	Gerald Hayes	ARI/7
89	85	-4	LB43	OLB18	David Thornton	TEN/6
90	80	-10	DL22	DE22	Elvis Dumervil	DEN/8
91	120	29	LB44	OLB19	Thomas Davis	CAR/9
92	62	-30	DB26	CB10	Terrence McGee	BUF/6
93	103	10	DL23	DE23	Justin Smith	SF/9
94	140	46	DB27	S17	Brian Dawkins	PHI/7
95	166	71	DL24	DE24	Charles Grant	NO/9
96	53	-43	LB45	OLB20	James Harrison	PIT/6
97	123	26	DB28	S18	Donte Whitner	BUF/6
98	149	51	DL25	DE25	Dewayne White	DET/4
99	136	37	LB46	ILB26	Matt Wilhelm	SD/9
100	110	10	DL26	DE26	Darryl Tapp	SEA/4
101	87	-14	LB47	OLB21	Adalius Thomas	NE/4
102	89	-13	LB48	ILB27	Stewart Bradley	PHI/7
103	49	-54	DL27	DE27	Chris Long	STL/5
104	114	10	DB29	CB11	Ronde Barber	TB/10
105	162	57	DL28	DT1	Tommy Kelly	OAK/5
106	74	-32	DB30	CB12	Leigh Bodden	DET/4
107	130	23	DB31	S19	Antrel Rolle	ARI/7
108	70	-38	LB49	ILB28	Jerod Mayo	NE/4
109	>200	92	DB32	S20	Chinedum Ndukwe	CIN/8
110	>200	91	DL29	DE28	Robert Geathers	CIN/8
111	41	-70	LB50	ILB29	Curtis Lofton	ATL/7
112	144	32	LB51	OLB22	Omar Gaither	PHI/7
113	113	0	DB33	CB13	Ike Taylor	PIT/6
114	170	56	DB34	S21	Rodney Harrison	NE/4
115	165	50	DL30	DE29	Ray Edwards	MIN/8
116	146	30	LB52	OLB23	Derrick Brooks	TB/10
117	187	70	DL31	DE30	Mark Anderson	CHI/8
118	93	-25	DL32	DE31	Dwight Freeney	IND/4
119	112	-7	LB53	OLB24	Rocky McIntosh	WAS/10
120	129	9	LB54	OLB25	Morlon Greenwood	HOU/8
121	121	0	LB55	OLB26	Bart Scott	BAL/10
122	22	-100	DB35	CB14	Antonio Cromartie	SD/9
123	156	33	DB36	S22	Sammy Knight	NYG/4
124	119	-5	LB56	ILB30	Niko Koutouvides	DEN/8
125	188	63	DB37	S23	Antoine Bethea	IND/4
126	97	-29	DB38	S24	Kenny Phillips	NYG/4
127	186	59	DB39	CB15	Kelvin Hayden	IND/4
128	172	44	DL33	DE32	Alex Brown	CHI/8
129	111	-18	LB57	OLB27	Justin Durant	JAX/7
130	163	33	DB40	CB16	Leon Hall	CIN/8
131	141	10	LB58	OLB28	Calvin Pace	NYJ/5
132	104	-28	DB41	CB17	Brandon Flowers	KC/6
133	105	-28	DL34	DT2	Darnell Dockett	ARI/7
134	98	-36	DL35	DT3	Jovan Haye	TB/10
135	>200	66	LB59	ILB31	Dhani Jones	CIN/8
136	124	-12	LB60	OLB29	Shaun Phillips	SD/9
137	137	0	DB42	CB18	Cortland Finnegan	TEN/6
138	127	-11	DB43	S25	Reggie Nelson	JAX/7
139	151	12	DL36	DE33	Jamaal Anderson	ATL/7
140	138	-2	DB44	S26	Michael Huff	OAK/5
141	152	11	LB61	ILB32	Stephen Cooper	SD/9
142	180	38	DB45	CB19	Eric Wright	CLE/5
143	143	0	DL37	DT4	Amobi Okoye	HOU/8
144	160	16	LB62	OLB30	Kawika Mitchell	BUF/6
145	>200	56	LB63	ILB33	Leon Williams	CLE/5
146	108	-38	LB64	OLB31	Mike Vrabel	NE/4
147	192	45	DL38	DE34	Marques Douglas	TB/10
148	>200	53	LB65	OLB32	Gerris Wilkinson	NYG/4
149	157	8	DL39	DE35	Luis Castillo	SD/9
150	>200	51	DL40	DE36	Ty Warren	NE/4
151	177	26	DL41	DE37	Antwan Odom	CIN/8
152	>200	49	LB66	OLB33	Pisa Tinoisamoa	STL/5
153	>200	48	LB67	OLB34	Scott Fujita	NO/9
154	122	-32	DB46	S27	Roy Williams	DAL/10
155	179	24	DB47	S28	Dawan Landry	BAL/10
156	175	19	DB48	CB20	Rashean Mathis	JAX/7
157	95	-62	DL42	DT5	Albert Haynesworth	TEN/6
158	>200	43	DB49	S29	Ed Reed	BAL/10
159	>200	42	LB68	OLB35	Joey Porter	MIA/4
160	>200	41	LB69	OLB36	Demorrio Williams	KC/6
161	178	17	DB50	CB21	Fred Bennett	HOU/8
162	100	-62	DL43	DE38	Derrick Harvey	JAX/7
163	>200	38	DB51	S30	Brandon McGowan	CHI/8
164	94	-70	DB52	CB22	Asante Samuel	PHI/7
165	118	-47	DL44	DT6	Kelly Gregg	BAL/10
166	>200	35	DL45	DE39	Chris Kelsay	BUF/6
167	142	-25	DB53	S31	Clinton Hart	SD/9
168	>200	33	LB70	OLB37	Marcus Washington	WAS/10
169	83	-86	LB71	ILB34	Dan Connor	CAR/9
170	>200	31	DB54	S32	Deon Grant	SEA/4
171	150	-21	DL46	DT7	Tommie Harris	CHI/8
172	>200	29	DL47	DE40	Shaun Ellis	NYJ/5
173	>200	28	LB72	OLB38	Landon Johnson	CAR/9
174	>200	27	DL48	DE41	Greg White	TB/10
175	>200	26	DB55	S33	Tanard Jackson	TB/10
176	198	22	DL49	DE42	Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila	GB/8
177	>200	24	DL50	DE43	Antonio Smith	ARI/7
178	167	-11	DB56	CB23	Charles Woodson	GB/8
179	185	6	DB57	S34	Ken Hamlin	DAL/10
180	155	-25	DB58	S35	Eric Weddle	SD/9
181	>200	20	DL51	DT8	Corey Williams	CLE/5
182	>200	19	LB73	ILB35	Bradie James	DAL/10
183	>200	18	DB59	S36	Yeremiah Bell	MIA/4
184	78	-106	DL52	DT9	Glenn Dorsey	KC/6
185	73	-112	DB60	CB24	DeAngelo Hall	OAK/5
186	>200	15	DB61	S37	Hamza Abdullah	DEN/8
187	133	-54	DL53	DT10	Kevin Williams	MIN/8
188	>200	13	DB62	S38	Will Demps	HOU/8
189	189	0	DB63	S39	Jason Allen	MIA/4
190	>200	11	DL54	DE44	Ikaika Alama-Francis	DET/4
191	190	-1	DL55	DT11	Mike Patterson	PHI/7
192	>200	9	DL56	DT12	Raheem Brock	IND/4
193	>200	8	DB64	S40	Lawyer Milloy	ATL/7
194	>200	7	DB65	S41	C.C. Brown	HOU/8
195	194	-1	DB66	CB25	Nick Harper	TEN/6
196	125	-71	DB67	CB26	Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie	ARI/7
197	>200	4	DB68	CB27	Brian Williams	JAX/7
198	191	-7	DL57	DE45	Jarvis Moss	DEN/8
199	>200	2	LB74	OLB39	Daryl Smith	JAX/7
200	>200	1	DB69	CB28	Terence Newman	DAL/10