IDP Spotlight: DT Tommy Kelly, Oakland Raiders

  Posted 8/4 by Sigmund Bloom, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

At first glance, the "largest ever for a defensive tackle" contract given to Tommy Kelly by the Raiders just seemed to be another laughable miscalculation by Count Chocula (aka Al Davis). A closer look reveals that Kelly is a very active defensive lineman entering his prime and being placed in a position to succeed - as a force on the field and the scoresheet.

If you play in a league that starts defensive tackles, you already know about Tommy Kelly. Kelly was the #2 overall DT in 2006, and he was playing at a top 5 pace when he went down with a knee injury last year. He was the #10 DT in 2005, and his PPG in his rookie season of 2004 was also top 10 among DTs (he only played in nine games). His statistical output even made him a good DL3 in leagues that lumped DE and DT together.

His constant presence in the run defense is the solid foundation for his fantasy production, but unlike most DTs, he's got the pass rush ability to get the occasional sack/forced fumble big play that is usually only bagged by defensive ends.

There's reason to believe Kelly will actually improve from his perennial status as a top fantasy defensive tackle. With the retirement of Warren Sapp, Kelly will become a full-time gap shooting three technique DT, instead of rotating between three spots on the line as he has done in the past. Sapp himself, who is not one to casually pump up players, said that Kelly will be the best three technique in the league. Our own guru John Norton was the first to point out that the exorbitant paycheck given to Kelly is more in line with a defensive end than a defensive tackle. The Raiders also have a hole at defensive end opposite Derrick Burgess, and if Kelly gets some snaps there, it will only help his stats.

Positives

• Consistent track record as DT1 and DL3
• New stable role allows for even more upside
• Plays next to man-mountain Terdell Sands who demands double teams

Negatives

• Coming off season-ending torn ACL
• New contract might sap some motivation
• DT is the easiest IDP position to get on the waiver wire
  

Final Thoughts

Tommy Kelly is already an elite IDP performer in some league formats. If you don't know him, chances are, you don't need to know him unless you're joining a new league with a required starter at DT. Still, with his new full-time job in the playmaking slot for DTs (if there is one), Kelly could become the rare DT who is viable in IDP leagues of all formats, and set a new statistical standard at his position.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

tex:
"I think Kelly is just entering his prime."

massraider:
"In a DT-required league, he's draftable. You may be able to get him later, as his absurd contract has people mentally downgrading him."

Duckboy:
"In his prime at 28, he should get plenty of opportunity for tackles as the Raiders will be playing from behind. I think he'll have some motivation to justify the contract he got. Assuming he stays healthy, he'll be draftable as a top DL3 or top 5 DT in DT-required leagues."

Aaron Rudnicki:
"Kelly played RDE last year but will be moved inside to DT this year to take over for a retired Warren Sapp. The Raiders feel that this is his natural position and that he can be the best 3-technique DT in the league. He'll likely see a drop in his tackle numbers but should be an effective pass rusher and wind up as one of the top-5 fantasy DTs this year."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety