IDP Spotlight: DE Terrell Suggs, Baltimore Ravens

  Posted 8/4 by Aaron Rudnicki, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

While a junior at Arizona State, Suggs set the NCAA record for sacks in a season with 24. Entering the league at just 20 years old, the Ravens drafted him with the 10th pick overall. Suggs enjoyed immediate success while playing OLB in the Ravens 3-4 defense, collecting 12 sacks as a rookie and being named Defensive Rookie of the Year. He followed that up with a Pro Bowl season in 2004, recording 10.5 sacks and 46 solo tackles. Suggs was moved to DE in 2005 by the Ravens new defensive coordinator Rex Ryan. Although his sack numbers dropped off a bit the next two seasons, he was one of the most productive tacklers at his position and also made more big plays with 7 forced fumbles, 12 passes defensed, and 2 INTs in 2005 and 2006 combined. Last year, the Ravens used Suggs at LB a bit more than they had the previous two seasons. His sack numbers declined to a career-low of 5, but he also recorded the highest tackle numbers of his career with 52 solos and 26 assists.

Despite having already spent 5 productive seasons in the NFL, Suggs will not turn 26 years old until October. Given that he should be in the prime of his playing career, it seems unlikely that his disappointing sack total is a sign of any declining ability on his part. It seems more likely that he just had an unlucky season similar to what happened to players like Dwight Freeney and Aaron Schobel, in which he generated plenty of pressure on opposing QBs but just didn't come down with the sack as often as he normally does. He was also probably hurt by the absence of a complementary pass rusher on the team. Adalius Thomas had signed with the Patriots and DE Trevor Pryce missed most of the season with injuries. Having a healthy Pryce lined up opposite him should certainly make things a bit easier for Suggs.

Suggs is a unique player who splits his time pretty evenly between DE and OLB and that has some important implications for his fantasy value. Although he certainly has double digit sack potential, it's now been a few years since he reached that level so his upside as a pass rusher seems to be limited to the 8 or 9 range. However, he can offset that with his amazingly consistent tackle production. Over the past four seasons, Suggs has averaged 48 solo tackles. Given his numbers from the past couple years, Suggs should have top-10 value in tackle-heavy scoring systems when he is categorized as a DE. However, if he gets classified as a LB, he becomes little more than a decent backup in most scoring systems. The same issue came up this offseason as the Ravens tried to tag him as a LB but Suggs argued that he was a DE, which would command a higher salary. A compromise was reached to pay Suggs the average of the DE and LB franchise tender amounts so he will make $8.5 million this year and then look to cash in with a big long-term contract in 2009.

Positives

• Extremely productive tackler from the DE position, has reached 46+ solo tackles for four straight seasons


• Young, talented pass rusher who has collected 45 sacks in his first 5 seasons


• Playing for franchise tender, which should provide incentive for a big season so he can sign a long-term deal next year

Negatives

• Coming off a career-low in sacks and sacks and hasn't reached double digits since 2004


• Ravens offense looks like it will continue to struggle, which should limit pass rush opportunities


• Team lacks an ideal bookend pass rusher, which should allow offenses to slide their blocking to his side of the field
  

Final Thoughts

Terrell Suggs is one of the most talented young defensive ends in the league. Although the drop in sacks last year is cause for some concern, it looks to be an outlier that he'll have little difficulty rebounding from in 2008. His impressive tackle numbers should keep him among the most consistent fantasy DEs from week to week. He's been a top-15 DE every year he's been in the league, and that type of consistency is hard to find. Expect another season of 45 to 50 solo tackles and at least 7 or 8 sacks.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

SugarNuts:
"Well, the only thoughts I have are that he didn't sign a long term deal. He will be playing for a mega contract this year, so I have a feeling he dominates this year. He is a guy I would target. If I recall correctly, he started slow last year not recording a sack in like the 1st 5 games. He then went on to have a pretty monster season from there on. I think he goes all out this year."

Anthony Borbely:
"Suggs averaged about 10 sacks per season prior to last year, when he only had 5. He is remarkably consistent tackle wise, with 46, 47, 47, and 52 the last four years. I expect a typical Suggs year with him getting back to the 10 sack area. Solid mid DL1."

Duckboy:
"Watch how your league designates him and what the scoring is. Top line DL, middle of the road LB unless big play scoring is in effect. Playing for a contract is always a motivator, with the bonus of the team trying to reclassify him to get a cheaper deal. I expect a very good year from him, with better tackle numbers than most of the sack specialists."

Tatum Bell:
"I'm not aware of any additional time playing LB last year for him. It looked to me like a down year for that entire front 7, which meant that more offensive attention could be paid to Suggs. He's certainly top-10 among DEs, with upside that gets him into the top-5 if he returns to form. I like him to return to form with double digit sacks, though nothing earth-shattering, like the 10-11 range."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety