IDP Spotlight: LB Keith Bulluck, Tennessee Titans

  Posted 7/16 by Bob Magaw, Exclusive to Footballguys.com

Bulluck poses maybe the thorniest dilemma at the LB position in 2008 IDP leagues (similar to former studs following up catastrophic 2007 seasons such as DE Julius Peppers and SS Adrian Wilson). His tackle production inexplicably fell off a cliff in 2007 with less than 70 solos, after averaging 100+ the previous five years. In the absence of any obvious injury or scheme-related causes, Bulluck's drop off was one of biggest head scratchers across the IDP landscape last year. This spotlight is faced with the daunting prospect of explaining what happened last year, and sorting out reasons to expect his upcoming season's production to be similar to his disappointing 2007 campaign, OR more like his incendiary body of work in the preceding half decade.

Positives

• Bulluck has been one of the preeminent WLBs of his era, after future Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks... the former 1st round Pro Bowler combines good size (listed 6'3" 235) and outstanding speed, athleticism, instincts, football smarts and leadership.
• He has been a tackle machine, averaging 100+ solo tackles in the half decade prior to last season (from 2002-2006).
• He has been a playmaker at his position, with two 5 sack seasons and one each with 5 INTs and 5 FFs in the past five years.
• Along with IND longtime formidable offense, AFC South divisional foes JAX and HOU are rapidly improving and could be on the field longer, presenting more tackle and playmaking opps for Bulluck.

Negatives

• He is 31 and like all players his age is inexorably approaching the time when he "hits the wall" (just a question of when).
• Bulluck is surrounded by almost certainly the best tackling front seven during his tenure with the Titans (DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch are among the best in the league at their positions and SLB David Thornton is similarly voracious... the secondary comprised of safety tandem Chris Hope/Michael Griffin and CB duo Nick Harper/Cortland Finnegan are also aggressive, hard-nosed and willing in run support), which translated to a precipitous drop in tackles in 2007... including 11 games with 4 or less solos and 14 contests with 2 or less assists.
• Tennessee could be better on offense this season, with Vince Young in line for a potential breakout third season with "new"/former OC Mike Heimerdinger (who was instrumental in designing the offense that catered to Steve McNair's strengths and helped take his game to new heights), LenDale White returns to health from a knee injury last season, and Reggie Bush-like X factor Chris Johnson was added in the 1st round of the 2008 draft, as well as talented TE Alge Crumpler in free agency.
• HC Jeff Fisher favors a run-heavy, grind-it-out approach that, when firing on all cylinders, tilts the time of possession battle in the Titans direction, and effectively shortens the game.

Final Thoughts

To recap, some of Bulluck's positives and negatives seem to balance out. On the plus side, he was a tackle machine for the five years before last season, is a playmaker that can light up the box score in every statistical category, still plays fast (evidence - 5 INTs in 2007) and AFC South opponents could all have above average offenses... meaning more snaps for the Titans stop unit and tackle/playmaking opps for Bulluck specifically. On the down, he is 31, surrounded by ruthlessly efficient open field tacklers at every level of the defense and the Titans offense could be better for a number of reasons (cited above).

At FBG, a near mantra is "regression to the mean", a statistical term referring to the typically observed pattern of an aberrant season (in either direction) usually followed up by a return to historical norms. That would represent cause for optimism in Bulluck's case. But enthusiasm should be tempered by the fact that there are some material changes in his situation that came into play in 2007... and remain intact (like being surrounded by fellow tackle machines on DL, at LB and in the secondary). The reward if he returns to pre-2007 stud LB1 form could be great, but the punishment just as extreme in the wrong direction if he slips to the anonymous LB3 netherworld and valuation optimism ultimately proves misguided and off the mark. There are conflicting pros and cons with no apparent signs clearly pointing to favoring either side. With extra weight given to the regression to the mean heuristic as a sort of "tiebreaker", a conscious attempt was made to balance positions from either extreme in the eventual 2008 projection.

There was no discernible pattern as far as best/worst tackling games being correlated with wins/losses, even if IDP owners gave thought to employing Bulluck selectively in promising matchups. But that is a moot point, as securing him on your roster should cost the equivalent of a LB2 (and possibly a high one at that), so anybody drafting him would likely be looking to start him every week. In some dynasty leagues, if the bad mojo combo of an off year and his LB twilight years demographic has crushed Bulluck's value, he may well be worth hanging on to, in case of the real possibility his production turns around and he can be flipped for more in the future (though not too distant, due to his age). The risk of course is that the appallingly down 2007 season foreshadows more of the same, and he is worth even less this time next year. This kind of hard decision takes place all the time on both sides of the ball in dynasty leagues. Sorting out reasons for dynasty Bulluck owners to either stick with him in anticipation of a bounce back or cut their losses is without question a murky proposition when peering into the proverbial crystal ball, made no less difficult by the fact that a right or wrong decision could have major roster repercussions.

Quotes from the IDP Spotlight Message Thread

To view the entire thread, click here.

frank_da_tank:
"I'm one that will give Bulluck the benefit of the doubt. I have him on my team and really hope I'm right. He is a top-10 LB that had a down year and is only 30 years old. It was surprising that he had no sacks last year. And only one game with over 10 tackles. I'm struggling to justify the drop in production other than he should of zigged when he zagged. Hopefully he will use the 2007 season as motivation."

Polyethylene Bag:
"Bulluck had been the model of consistency until 2007. I didn't see him play much but it seemed to me that, as much as anything, the 2007 Titans defense was an excellent cohesive unit (particularly the DL) that limited the number of offensive snaps taken against them; thus limiting the statistical potential of the individual defenders. Since not much has changed in this regard, I think his numbers get a slight bump in '08 but I think his numbers will be more similar to '07 than pre-'07."

Zoomanji:
"I'd feel better with him as a LB3 than a LB2. I think he can bounce back but we have seen numbers that support his decline. Still a nickel linebacker though. Couple INTs and a TD and he's right back in the top 10-20."

J Giles Band:
"Yes, I was a 2007 Keith Bulluck owner expecting certain LB1 numbers. And I waited, and waited, and waited. Sorry, I'm just not buying Bulluck as a LB2 again. To his credit, Bulluck is a prototype 3-down LB with exceptional ability in coverage (5 INTs & 7 PDs in 2007 - the PDs were still remarkably a dip from previous years of 8, 10 & 13), good instincts, solid tackling ability and great leadership skills. No one can deny Bulluck's place on the IDP altar of greatness after all of the 100+ solo tackle seasons for owners over the years.

And while I will primarily attribute his falling off the fantasy map in 2007 almost solely to opportunity, there is little about the Tennessee defense or Bulluck which suggests a significant rebound is likely. David Thornton has hit his prime on the opposite side and Albert Haynesworth and the DL should continue to stop a good percentage of ball carriers before they get to the 2nd level. Throw in the fact Bulluck enters his age 31 season (not over-the-hill but not a good sign after a down season), and it is hard to be optimistic for a return to previous form. This doesn't even begin to account for the Titans run oriented, ball control offense most often giving them a significant advantage in the time-of-possession department.

While certain blasphemy not even a year ago, I can't help but project Bulluck no better than a solid LB3 in 2008. If he were to regain LB2 form it wouldn't shock me (especially since he won't be on my roster again), but I wouldn't count on it."

BigSteelThrill:
"I'm having a a hard time buying Bulluck in '08 as a top LB option. Obviously David Thornton pulled a whammy from the SLB position and during the passing downs, beating Bulluck and leading the team in total tackles by a large margin. Then came Bulluck and the two starting corners. I have faith in Bulluck, but he is 31 and might be slowing down. Usually the early 30s is not an issue for LBs, but it may be just enough that Thornton is beating him to the stats. It certainly appears that runs up the middle and to the right were getting tackled by Thornton, especially when just these 2 LBs were on the field in the nickel defense. Hard to say. Based on stats from last year he may fall into the #3 LB area and then would be a superior flier to take.

Stat of doom: Only once last year was Bulluck all alone as the team leader in total tackles. It was the Titans lone blow out loss to the Bengals, 35-6. Not a good indicator."

Projections

IDP Scoring System

• 1.5 pts per Solo Tackle
• 0.75 pts per Assisted Tackle
• 4 pts per Sack
• 4 pts per Forced Fumble
• 4 pts per Fumble Recovery
• 5 pts per Interception
• 1.5 pts per Pass Defensed
• 6 pts per Touchdown
• 2 pts per Safety